NFL PLAYOFF TIME ...............................2024

Bills +1.5 (-120) over KC ---.6 units to win .5 units

I'll  make a half unit play on Bills

Good luck.  I have many queries favoring BUF and KC, so I expect a close game.  Doug Kezirian (who has had a FANTASTIC NFL season) favored BUF as a teaser leg.

Close Wins method .......... 1-3-1 ATS

Play is on the Bills with well over a 3 game diff.

This method rarely finishes with a losing record so it needs to win here and in the SB to go .500.

If it loses it goes to 1-4-1 ATS the worst record ever for the method.

Not likely but not impossible, one day it more then likely will happen. But I'll play the probabilities it will come back with a win.

Going to be interesting  game, can Mahomes do it again ? Always a scaring proposition. 

But I think this is the time he goes down...........

I hope you find the time.  Many fans are eagerly awaiting your research.

@theclaw

Could you plz update your 'Expected Win Margin' model for the 2 teams remaining in the SB, I find it very interesting and it probably will help me decide on the team to wager on, I am leaning one way but things could change base on few things I'll look more into, thx.  Good luck in the SB.

My first take on Super Bowl….. you should be able to tease eagles… K C and their one score games… so philly +7.5… figure out the over/under.   49.5.   Game in New Orleans.   Fast turf track… so over 43.5 or under 55.5.   I would lean under since both Buffalo and Washington were prone to scoring and a bit of the gunslinger mentality…  maybe you could help me on the math side of over/under … then find a basketball team to put with the 2 for plus money… so 3 team teaser  6-7 point.  With philly /over under/ and one basketball game.   

Your perspective please.  ?? 

9bviously Eagles are the play using PR I & PR II.

And using my playoff only PR I.

Eagles had the much better regular season and playoff run. But the best I heard it explained on you tube was, of the players and coaches who will be making the most important game changing decisions ate all on KC.

Mahomes or Hurts

Head coaches

Defensive coordinators

The time to go against Brady or Mahomes is when bigger favorites and with public. On them.

 Not the case here.

But the only play for me is Eagles or no play.

I will live and die by my methods and advanced metrics but we all know these don't work with Brady and Mahomes.

Close Wins............ 1-4 ATS

Bills loss was brutal. Could of gone to 2-3 which wouldn't be so bad.

But 1-4;is the worst ever for this method and it has a play on the Eagles.

So it is staring 1-5 in the face counting on Eagles beating Mahomes, Reid and Spags 

Expected Win Margin.......

Both teams have plenty of points left suggesting a possible  double digit win could be coming.

If a big win comes I'd have to think that'd be the Eagles, I can't see KC winning overly large.

If things break right for the Eagles I could see a bigger win in the 14-17 pt range.

We have to remember  this method does not tell us who will win Only by how much they could win.

It does suggest KC could win bigger as well. So we can't rule that out.

CLAW 

my thoughts exactly. Among my many plays I have eagles -6 +230. Just in case .. as I can see the Eagles scoring at will. This game sets up so well for the Eagles. 

Well crap…. So you’re telling me …. Anything’s possible….    I will hike my skirt up a tad more if need be….   Appreciate your perspective as always… thank you sir.  

I have philly -8.5 for +325 and in some gimmick parlays as well.

This is going to be fun to watch win lose or draw the building of excitement and the potential for big wins is sweet!

Enjoy the games all 

GL  on your plays @theclaw 

  should have a good shot to hit

Yep very well could be ....

Eagles +1.5 over KC --- .55 units

I'll take some small action on Eagles. I think Eagles is the right side.