NFL PLAYOFF TIME ...............................2024

Do you know, who has the most 14 point wins ?

Crazy .......

1. Bucs 7

2 . Broncos 6 ...... say what

2. Eagles 6

2.Bills 6

2. Ravens 6

Packers 5

LAC 4

Wash 4

And bringing up the rear .......

Rams 0

KC 2

Texans 2

Steelers 2

Got to love the Bucs 

OK, so you like the Rams .................

No plays today but how can you not like LAC ?

I do agree it looks to easy and that always scares me off a team although these games can and do win.

LAC have consistently been one of the more efficient teams with yards and plays while Texans have consistently  been the worst of all division winners.

Home dogs do well in the playoffs though.

as much as I want to play LAC I'll pass. 

I'd also have to lean Steelers +10.

Don't bet the hottest team coming into the playoffs. By hottest I mean the most SU wins.

That'd  be Wash off 5 SU wins. I'd take this when it is 5 or more and 7 or more is very good to fade these teams.

Play is on the Bucs.

We can make a case the hottest is also Ravens, off 4 wins and 4 ATS wins and some big wins. That combined is 8 . Wash off 3 ATS wins combines for 8.

This is simply to hot to make a play.

Ravens going nowhere fast, one and done.

The only Texan game I saw was vs the Ravens last month. Man was it ugly. They're not as good as last season. Looks like they're in a slump now. Don't know how much Stefon Diggs impacted this team I remember early on seeing them as the hyped team. But without Diggs and Tank Dell it's gonna be tough. Chargers will probably bumble around a bit Kim Harbaugh and Chargers play a similar style as Ravens. I imagine the Chargers win by a TD here.

not to be ignorant, but I don’t know what this means. 

Ravens definitely have alot to prove not only to the fans but themselves...............

Texans offense has not been good. The defense is good but Stroud really regressed from last year when he looked like he might become the next Mahomes.

Texans did have regression indicators pounting to a less successful season this year.

I think next year will be their year now that those high expectations  are off them.

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Read post #28

thank you buddy. GL!

Great research.  Thanks for the time and effort.

GL on your plays @theclaw 

@theclaw

From Comment #52 - We can make a case the hottest is also Ravens, off 4 wins and 4 ATS wins

You have a good point, TC.  This query for PlayOff Home Favorites is fairly easy to compose or understand:

PO = 1 and HF and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and pppp:W and p:ATSW and pp:ATSW and ppp:ATSW and pppp:ATSW (Lower case "p" stands for "previous".)

SU:  14-7-1 (2.6,66.7%)

ATS:  7-15 (-4.5,31.8%)

I did not take PIT because I have another query that says fade PIT (it is 2-9 ATS) based on the difference in team wins and # of weak DEF efforts the last five games.

Thanks, same to you Mac .............

Thanks for that query 

What is it ? Is that winning 4 straight and covering 4 straight ? Going into playoffs ?

Close Wins ....................

with a 3 pt difference  since 2005 through 2022

15 winning years out of 18

2 years at .500 ATS

1 losing year at only 2-3 ATS

58-33 ATS (63.7%)

past 5 years 2019-2022 --- 63.8%..........pretty much right on the long term %.........indicating the method is still pretty sharp in today's NFL.

Not sure record last year, I thought it was 3-3 ATS that is what I had written down but then scratch off. There more them likely was some pushes but I may not have recorded them so W/L % Could be slightly lower. 

This is a great method to use, I post this every year to very good success over the years.

I don't always take action on every game but this year I will. I can't argue with the results.

Bucs -3 over Wash --- 1.1 units

Packers +5 over Eagles --- 1.1 units

Broncos +8 over Bills --- 1.1 units

Rams I'll  reluctantly take action on them as this method says they are the right play but wait out the line to see if it hits 3. Doubtful, may drop before it hits 3 but I could be wrong.

If I see it dropping to 2 I will grab it quick and try to get the 2.5 if possible if not take 2.

@theclaw

 With you Tampa and Denver. Good luck brother 

@theclaw

Stoud appears to be regressed as he lost his top two WRs. If he is not good, he can't do what he does yesterday .... playing point guard, pass and pass and pass as the Chargers pressed against the run. Joe Mixon would not be able to run if Stroud was not able to do what he did yesterday.

Thanks, same to you ..........

As it turned out, LAC were the biggest public play of the week according to guy on you tube.

So public did well in regular season  and lose their 1st big play of playoffs.

Texans do fit the common denominators of surprise teams from the WC round.

I wont go against  these teams until they no longer fit these common denominator.

Ravens didn't score 30 pts again to be a fade on that method, I don't know if it works in playoffs but can't rule it out but now the broke the string of 30 pt games. 

They are not really any regression  fade except maybe the hottest team but they don't fit this perfectly.

My other system will have a play on the Ravens next week.

I think it will be the right play.

Both PR I & PR II had leans on Ravens and Texans to start playoffs 2-0 ATS.

I don't take any action on leans but when these leans post losing ATS records for the week great spot to back them next week after.

If they post strong records they may not do the same the following week.

@theclaw

Yes, "W" = SU win and "ATSW" = against the spread win.

BAL won SU but did not cover, so that query was a mixed bag.  The other query that said to fade PIT ATS did work.

0-3, lost 3.3 units

Brutal  , I never thought these plays would go 0-3, crazy.

Now I need to count on the Rams to at least get back to a reasonable loss the one team I dont have alot of faith in.

0-4 will be tough to come back from for sure. 1-3, 2 games below .500 VS 4 games below .500

Play coming later maybe get the +3 probably  not.