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Lines dictates the game....

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Posted: #1751
Each time there's a final result of a game ,, i enter this into several spread sheet in a few different formats,, when you add all this up you will notice certain trends.. This usually shows what the team or coach is trying to do in certain periods of the game,, its like breaking it down to the science using raw numbers... And when you have enough numbers,, your averages become more reliable data,, and alot of times the books dont adjust,, like fourth quarter unders go under alot lately... Teams are tired ,, up double digits,, kills clock... Then you have the refs calling fouls on each play ,, ticky tack paddy wack or whatever,, in order to make it a play i need all this data infront of me... Mostly so i know how to play according to a strenght of a number
 
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Posted: #1752
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

Then when you watch enough games,, you will notice certain tendancies,, like for instance i've noticed the bulls are a good second half team at home... Its like they play hero ball for the fans,,, .... And alot of those tendacies like old age or young teams,, it will affect the scoring,, but the mentality of these teams could be so different night in night out... Look at San antonio those teams are good to fade early on to fade because they won the championship just like the nfl.,,, they are overvalued and the motivation isnt always there unless they have the talent and if its warranted,, SA has been scrimaging their bench,,, the coach swears he can win another championship solely with his bench LOL... But there's no doubt in my mind that the SPURs are the best and the most intellegent team there is by a huge margin... This team can tire you out by passing and moving the ball,,, knock in the 3 at will,, Other than phil jackson and Papa,, all the rest of the coaches are a joke,, no where near those levels...

Phil Jackson good coach? Hornacek is a good coach imo, what about Kerr? I think theres more than just popo. 
 
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Posted: #1753
The set up looks like this,, i have multiple tv's that i have turned on during game time,, with the audio shut off,, i have multiple monitors below the tvs,, i watch all the scores via the fastest most upto date website,,, i turn off the audio so i can get a better sense of the "pace" of the game and add this to the tendancies that i catch from watching the games daily... As im sitting there im gather information on injuries and marquee vs small market teams and handicapping other sports,, then as all the games end and i know what my night will look like i start entering all the data i can so i can get more sleep lol... Most of the times i put in my plays as soon as they open ... sometimes im wrong and i take the other side... sometimes injuries are not reported until late it depends... Nba is one of those things y ou can get a big advantage by catching those details and applying it over and over again... 
 
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Posted: #1754
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

Each time there's a final result of a game ,, i enter this into several spread sheet in a few different formats,, when you add all this up you will notice certain trends.. This usually shows what the team or coach is trying to do in certain periods of the game,, its like breaking it down to the science using raw numbers... And when you have enough numbers,, your averages become more reliable data,, and alot of times the books dont adjust,, like fourth quarter unders go under alot lately... Teams are tired ,, up double digits,, kills clock... Then you have the refs calling fouls on each play ,, ticky tack paddy wack or whatever,, in order to make it a play i need all this data infront of me... Mostly so i know how to play according to a strenght of a number

Sounds awesome. May i have a look into this or will u keep it to urself? 
 
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Posted: #1755
If you watch the passion the coaches have and the talent they have to work with and whether or not a team has gelled,, there's alot of work right there when you look at coaches... Some coaches can just lift a finger and the whole team reacts,, some have to beg their players to play,, there's a high variance but if you watch enough of these games,, and follow those trends,, just keep riding it til the wheels fall off and when it switches ,, follow that switch... 
 
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Posted: #1756
The information that i have and have accumulated ,, i have also put a number on how much its worth... But there's alot of maintenance to feed this system as it is no stream lined... Im half of the system as i use it so often it has become internalized... If i handed someone this information,, they wouldnt know how to use it to the best of its abilities... Alot of times its used for a guideline to know how the numbers flow and fluctuate... Raw numbers dont know if Lebron doesnt want to show up today because he's getting ready for a new years party... 
 
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Posted: #1757
In order to do exactly as i do and learn,, i literally would have to give a one on one class for about a month... And depending on how smart the person is,, that person would also need to hire someone to help use and feed the system so that they can also have a life aside from all this... Quite frankely i can do alot with this data and knowledge,, i dont mind teaching it... But the learn it ,, it takes alot of time and dedication,, im not just talking about the grueling ten man process of mining all this data let alone learning how to use it effectively... 
 
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Posted: #1758
Sounds very interesting idd. 
 
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Posted: #1759
Now that nba has started i wont be around much,, i will still post.. But handicapping nba this year im using a more stream lined approach,, i doubt i can hit 65% like in the nfl.. sample side is too great... however dont take for granted that few percent edge,, just have the mindset to do this over and over and over again and it will add up over time,, but do so in a way where you dont hit ruin... That's the hardest part... Bankroll management... This sytem that i use for both nfl and nba doesnt require a decent sized bankroll and alot of dicipline to use effectively... There's still that human element there,, but i tell myself all the time to know my odds and to trust it,, and to cancel out what the heart says,, unless if its simply too much love for a team then i fade... 
 
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Posted: #1760
Does require a good sized bankroll i mean... 
 
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Posted: #1761
U know ur things. Good luck with it, u got a game plan, ure keeping strict bank roll management and ure sticking to it. Sounds good. Gl with ur capping. 
 
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Posted: #1762
Anytime time man... With arms like that you can carry a boat load of money bags yourself lol... 
 
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Posted: #1763
If you guys truely want to do it at the level that i do it.. You will learn a lot just by doing it... It will require ALOT of time... unless if you truely love doing this,, i dont recommend anyone being a handicapper,, it certainly isnt good for health reason... But i feed off of challenge,, call it that micheal jordan mentality... Im an exception... But one day when i have a master list of all sports in handicappers i will be buying picks myself or possibly join a team,, but with no regrets as i have learned alot through this process... Im not sure if i can mentally handle Nba yet for the whole season,,, that is without burning out... And im burned out... I have neck aches,, eye strains and head aches due to being infront of a pc for long hours and gallons of coffee... So take my word for it and every word for it.. to each your own... 
 
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Posted: #1764
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

NBA TUESDAY
DET & OVER 195 BIG

ATL -4.5 BIG Got in early No one will take atlanta in this spot... Call it a fade

BK & UNDER BIG CLOSING

MEM & UNDER BIG

PHO +1.5

WAS BIG +5 & UNDER

MIN BIG

POR & OVER BIG 209

Sorry no time to post all the numbers... Most of the unders im taking at closing... 
QUOTE

 
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Posted: #1765
Lets bang the books this weekend HoldingXYZ! !


Got any plays for wild card  weekend? 
 
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Posted: #1766
Holding that was some very strong picks right there! I think fading Toronto can be profitable the next couple of weeks, i dont think they play as good bball as the lines say they should do. 
 
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Posted: #1767
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

Lets bang the books this weekend HoldingXYZ! !


Got any plays for wild card  weekend? 

I have a 10 unit teaser on CAR+1.5 & BAL +9... I may try to middle this or hedge before game time it depends... I think the matchups in the conference is going to be nasty... 

Imagine when the seahawks play the pack again... As much as i like to see the Pack do well.. Im not sure about this one lol... 
 
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Posted: #1768
I mean i have Car+1/2 with BAL+9

Asomugha , 

Yeah toronto can hold their own without Derozin it seems... I have 

Tcu -3 2H 
Bos/sac under 211.5 today...
MIA &  under
Lac big and under
Char

Willl add
 
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Posted: #1769
Final card Nba New years eve

Bos/sac under 211.5 today...
MIA &  BIG under
Lac BIG and under
Char
Cle 
Sa & over BIG
Pho +8 BIG , get on this early... You wont get a better number... 
 
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Posted: #1770
Vizio bowl
Going to add Ari & OVER... tail with caution,, my college football skills suck 
 
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Posted: #1771
Knicks should take care of Detroit in 2 days, Detroit have been doing well as of lately and beaten up Cavs on the road and coming off a 3 game win skid. This is a let-down spot for Detrit and Knicks are infront of MSG even tho they struggling typical spot for them to turn things around in the new year - new start etc. Good luck. 
 
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Posted: #1772
I like it !!! NY has to start winning now it's crazy Det will lay down roll and around
 
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Posted: #1773
Freaking bowl games oh god these are for giggles I'm leaning 

Wis +6
Bay -2.5 
Minn ML

Going to look more into the Rose and Sugar leans for now 

FSU +7.5
Bama -8
 
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Posted: #1774
Hey Boston is the NBA tread still active ??? let's get it going 
 
 
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Posted: #1775
Sorry HoldingXYZ,I don't bet on NBA. It's bad for my health 
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