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IT'S NFL PLAYOFF TIME .....................2016

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Posted: #126
Broncos negative in yards per point, just 7 of 74 teams since 1978 made the SB and 4 of those were surprise teams from the WC round.

The remaining 3 teams were no. 2 seeds, no no.1 seed has done it.


Great stats bro ...but this streak is gone ... a Number 1 Seed advanced ..... 

Regardless of how you ended the playoffs ... great info ...
 
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Posted: #127
Boy oh boy I took a beat-down in this years playoffs like never before. Very aggravated about it, lost more then half my bank-roll.

And it all started because I decided to look into strength of schedule.

And that is very unlike myself to jump to quick decisions about things and place big wagers on that. Very aggravating to say the least. 

I'm always looking into ways to improve any method and did see some evidence, not overwelming but some evidence that possibly playing very weak schedules could be a negative thing.

Overall strength of schedule does not appear to give better results but maybe very weak schedules do.,

Looking back further than 2000 many a weak schedule team did win big in the playoffs according to football-reference. 98 Denver won the SB, 99 Jags won 61-7 , many teams playing weak schedules as the Panthers won big.

PR II had the Panthers one of the best teams in history.

Panthers would have been my favorite to win the SB had I done things as I've always done them every year with good success and not considered strength of Schedule.

For some reason I could not bring myself to believe this Panthers team was comparable to the best teams in history.

 But by golly they sure did prove prove to this point anyway that they are one hell of a damn good team.


 
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Posted: #128
PR II has a very unquie way to measure things, I use ratio, what ratio does....... a   team out-play it's opp in key stat battles and uses ratio automatically credits better defense and gives extra reward for winning each stat battle even if by a small amount.

One could not look at year end stats and see Panthers as comparable to best teams in history.

Here's why, let say team A wins ave per pass battle in a particular  game 10 yds to 7 a 3 yd diff.

Team B wins 6-4, only a 2 yd diff.

Using ration team B is the better team because their defense played much better.

10 divided by 7 = 1.43 to 1
6 divided by 4 + 1.5 to 1

Team B recieves more points in their PRing even though they only out-gained opp by 2 yds to team A 3 yds.

This penalizes better offenses and rewards better defenses.

For team A to get 1.5 points they need to ave 10.5 yds and out-gain opp by 3.5 yds to be equal to a team out-gaining an opp by only 2 yds.

This is why year end stats will never see what PR II sees.

PR II also contradicts what many web sites say that the running game has little value, it weighs the running game quite a bit using ratio.

Here's the best teams in PRII , teams over 15

91 Skins, 85 Bears, 92 Dallas, 98 Denver, 2000 Ravens and 2013 Seahawks were a tad under 15.

If we look at how these teams dominated the postseason.................

91 Skins won by ave of 20.33 pts
85 Bears 27 pts
92 Dallas 23 pts
98 Denver 21 pts
2000 Ravens 18 pts
2013 Seahawks 16.33 pts

Each team won at least 1 game by 30 pts or more except 2000 Ravens best win 27 pts.

Panthers won by 34 

Each team won a 2cd game by at least 14 pts except 2013 Seahawks who were up 16 when Saints scored on 4th down with 28 secs left.

Of coarse Panthers up by 31 and gave up many a score.

Those teams combined to go 18-1 ATS in all postseason games.

Panthers 2-0 ATS thus far.


Wow, I sure missed the boat with the Panthers this season, and that is as aggravating as it gets !!!...............................
 
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Posted: #129
Since 2009 5 of 7 no.1 ranked teams in PRII have made the SB and are 10-3 ATS in playoffs before going to SB.

Only 1 team had a losing ATS record in playoffs before the SB and that was 2011 Packers who finished .06 better than the 9ers who easily could of went to SB had they not lost starting punt returner and had the back-up fumble 2 punts.

It was all there right in front of me but I think I try to out-smart myself and payed a big price....................................
 
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Posted: #130
POWER RATING I.............................

Panthers 12.57
Broncos 1.68 (ave of 2 QB"s)

Panthers by 10.89

Since 1978 SB's involving bye teams or strong statistical bye teams but not including surprise wild card round teams.....my line favorites are 16-3 SU.

teams with a 6 pt diff to closing line 8-4 ATS, not including surprise wild card teams


Defense adjusted PR I ................ Panthers by 12.86, has a better ATS record with a 6 pt diff then non defense adjusted .

Panthers win the defense adjusted but this also includes TO by the offense which Panthers win, but even if we throw that out Panthers would still win by a smaller amount.







POWER RATING II..........................................

Panthers 15.29
Broncos 3.27

Panthers by 12.02
 
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Posted: #131
PLAYOFF ONLY PR I................................................

Panthers 26.21
Broncos 5.54

Panthers better by 20.67

1997-2014 seasons.... 14-3-1 ATS in all games. 9-3 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line

PLAYOFF ONLY VALUE RATING...............................

Panthers +5.71
Broncos (-1.64)

Panthers by 7.35

1997 - 2014 seasons ......12-5-1 ATS in all games and 6-1-1 ATS with a 5 pt diff.

With a 6 pt diff in line and a 5 pt diff in value, both on the same team 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS.

The only loss was 2005 Seahawks over Pitt in the game with the largest diff in penality yards in SB history and the refs have already openly admitted they made bad calls that cost Seattle the win.

Value tells us whether a teams play on the field is better or worse then their actual margin of victory, the info suggest Panthers better then final scores while Denver not as good as final scores.




When both PRI regular season and PRI PLAYOFF ONLY are on the same team with a lean to the same team 7-1-1 ATS.

In other words if a team is playing better in regular season and playoffs they have a great record of success in SB.
 
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Posted: #132
Now, with all that said, the one thing that can offset all that info is regression, teams playing on unsustainable levels of play.

Info like, teams scoring over 40 pts and coming in off big wins or playing way over their heads far better then their PR's would suggest.

The other thing that can and often does come into play is......expectations......teams with high expectations can sometimes lose focus if they buy into all the hoopla that they are so good they can not lose.

They lose focus on all the little things that make winning possible. Great coaches like Bill Parcels and Jimmy Johnson talked about this back in the day.

I would not discount the role this could play in this years SB.

Because of things like regression and expectations, we need to respect this, the better stratergy may be to come small on Panthers trying to get at least down to -4 even if we buy down, but wait it ouit and see if it will drop further by kick-off.

Then bet in-game if Panthers get behind and we can get + points with a very small play , espiecally if Panthers go down by 2 scores I WILL be coming in for sure with a larger play.

And remember in most SB the winning team does score 3 straight times at some point which is why I would wait till Panthers go down 2 scores before coming with a bigger bet to assure getting a good amount of points.

But if Panther never trail and win this game like the info strongly suggest they could easily do we will have at least a small amount on them.

This may prove to be a little less risky way to play things

But I will have to side with all the info here that suggest the Panthers will be raisng the trophy at the end of the day and will likely find a way to cover this spread even if they trail at some point , Panthers will find away to get it done........................

 
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Posted: #133
Solid work this year bro  

Bol tomorrow  
Banging since 1983
 
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Posted: #134
Claw, I respect you a ton. I have followed for a long time. We've made some good dough together. In this particular game, past numbers aren't going to tell the story. Like last week with you being on new England, I see the same outcome for ya. Denver not only covers but I think they win. The game will be played on the field and as big as the discrepancies are with the numbers that support carolina, denver will be ready. Sometimes, as crazy as it sounds, calling games won't be the end all be all angle. Sometimes, especially in big games like this with the public heavy on one team, the game gets won in different ways. "Flukes", inopportune penalties, missed 27 yard field goals, missed extra points, whatever you want to call them, (to you they may be coincidental, I call them intentional) these will present themselves brotha and I see denver being on the right side of these type plays tomorrow. Enjoy the game amigo. Much respect for ya 
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:

Love your work... but I can't help but think your PRs don't factor in strength of schedule.  Broncos played easily the hardest schedule of any of the playoff teams, and went 5-2 against the playoff field, which is better than any other teams.  Only Arizona comes close to that.  In fact, 7 of the 12 playoff teams were sub-.500 against the field.

The Super Bowl will almost certainly be won by one of the following teams:

Seahawks, Cards, Panthers, Broncos

Longshots:  Bengals, Chiefs, Packers, Steelers

Shot in hell:  Pats, Vikings, Texans, Redskins


Not one to pile on... but you said your downfall was factoring in SOS.  I posted this on page 1, and pointed out that you weren't putting enough weight into SOS.  The above list is based almost exclusively on SOS.

3 of the 4 "Shot in Hell" teams in this list lost in the 1st round as home teams against opponents with tougher SOS.  The Pats survived their 1st game, as a home favorite, against a team in the 2nd group.  The Bengals lost as a home team against a team in the same tier, without their starting QB.

Outside of this, every predictable outcome based on SOS came to pass.  The only upper tier AFC team completed their run to the Super Bowl, and the NFC team from the upper tier with HF advantage completed their run to the Super Bowl.

I am seeing no surprises here...
The Dude imbibes
 
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Posted: #136
Always a good read. Thanks for sharing you PR's, must be a lot of work that most wouldn't understand
 
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Posted: #137
The line drops again this morning. Now we find a few books in Vegas at 4.5 and on SBR odds even some of  the 5's are juiced heavier to Denver meaning a possible drop to 4.5.

If line drops to 4 may buy to 3 with a small play and then make a small play at 4.

Wait it out. 
 
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Posted: #138
There's been alot of talk about teams scoring 40 pts or more and losing the next week, this trend is more era specific, in the past 10-15 years yes, but looking back at the 80's and 90's these type trends were not there as the SB did this quite a bit.

91 Skins rolled the Lions 41-10 then lead Bills 37-10 in the 4th quarter before winning 37-24 and easily covering.

94   9ers rolled the Bears 44-15 won and covered the next week then rolled SD 49 - 26.in SB.

86 Giants rolled 9ers 49-3 then won 17-0 and rolled Denver in SB 39-20.

89   9ers rolled Vikes 42-15 then rolled the Rams 30-3 then rolled Denver 55-10

90 Bills won 44-34 then rolled Raiders 51-3 before losing to Giants in the SB but still went 1-1 ATS after scoring  40 pts.

83 Skins won 51-7 and won SU but failed to cover.
84 Dolphins won 44 -28 and lost SB to 9ers.



Today's 40 pt trend basically started around the time of surprise teams from the WC round started, a new era began.

That era appears over. Back in the 80's we saw 6 of the 10 years both no.1 seeds made the SB and then again in 91 but from 92 to 2008, the somewhat similar era to WC round surprise teams and the scoring 40 pt teams not a single SB with both no.1 seeds .

Now we have 3 straight SB's of both no.1 seeds , never seen since the 80's.

Last season Pats won 45-10 or whatever it was and still won and covered the SB, is this telling us something about era specific trends ?
 
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Posted: #139
The way I like to look at it is how much a team beats it's PR, better teams will win by larger scores, and can still continue winning, better teams are not playing all that much above their true abilities where-as lesser teams are far more likely receiving a whole ,lot of luck in winning big.

This explains alot of those strong teams winning big and continuing to win and cover again and it explains teams like the 2000 Giants who were not a strong team winning 41-0 and getting destroyed by the far superior team in the Ravens.

Panthers winning by 34 pts is 2.7 times their PR I. This falls almost exactly to those 80's teams, while the 2000 Giants played 6.68 times their PR I.

Seems once team get over 4 times you can turn-out the lights coz their parties over.

From 2000 to 2014 , I don't have it broken down prior to 2000 but I do for teams scoring 40 pts and winning big.......the team playing further under or less over their PR I on ave in all playoffs games is 6-3 ATS in SB involving bye teams or stronger wild card round teams.

Panthers 1.63
Denver 2.68

Both teams scored over their PR I but Panthers are further under their's, this regression method would favor the Panthers even after scoring 40 pts and winning big.

2000 Ravens 1.3
Giants 4.16

Huge difference between Panthers scoring 40 pts and winning big and the Giants scoring 40 pts and winning big.

The Ravens dominated their playoff games but played about what could be expected based on their team strength while the Giants came in playing way better then they actual were. The Giants received a whole-lot-of-luck. And because this luck influenced the line the value was all over the Ravens.
 
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Posted: #140
GL Man, on the other side for the first time in years
 
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Posted: #141
Panthers -4 (-120) over Broncos --- 2.4 units to win 2 units

Will wait-out the line, if we can get 3 without paying to high a juice may take another 2 units. 
 
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Posted: #142
Another regression method I like to use which I discovered this method way back in early 90's.

What I did was look at regular season stats and tried to find the one which would better predict a SB winners margin of victory through all postseason games.

I found a stat that was better at this then the teams regular season pt margin would be.

That stat can give us low and high point totals, for the Panthers would be ave of 11 pts up to a high of 15.4 ave.

Over 3 games that's 33 pts to 46.2 pts

This does not tell us if they will win but only if they do happen to win their margin should fall somewhere close to this method over all games.

Panthers to this point have outscored teams by 41 pts, so according to this method about the best we can expect is Panthers 5.2 pt victory which puts the game right on the line.

This is why I would try and get the best line at least 4 but 3 is better.

2 years ago when Seattle  won by 8 and 6 or 14 pts, Seattle had a expected margin of 16.35 up to 22.89 or over 3 games of 49 to 68.7 so basically Seattle should of won by low end 35 pts in the SB.

This method has been very good when the situation has come up right.

Can not use this every year only when a team comes in well over or under their expected margin.
 
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Posted: #143
Panthers -3 (-158) over Broncos --- 1.58 units to win 1 unit
Panthers ML -2.05  --- 2.05 units to win 1 unit

Will be looking to make in game plays if we fall behind.

Will need to get pts for a small play but with +3 a bit more then +7 a bit more.

We'll see as it comes up.

BOL............................enjoy the game...........................
 
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Posted: #144
Line Panthers -3.5  after Denver's 1st score and 3-0 lead

I'll pass
 
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Posted: #145
Panthers down 10-0  +3.5 to win 2 units
 
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Posted: #146
were in good shape guys, Panthers took some time to settle down, now they should take control
 
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Posted: #147
Panthers -4.5 2cd half, will pass on that, if Denver scores 1st and we can get more then 3.5 will take another small play

 
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Posted: #148
Denver's defense was just to tough. 

Panthers did have some moments and good oppurtunities but Denver's defense was just to tough and always seem to make the play when they needed it.

Denver probally got more lucky breaks but that's what they needed if they were going to win SU.

The punt return when 2 Panther's were right there to make the tackle for no gain turns into a SB record 61 yard return when the 2 mis-judge the play.

The many Panthers dropped passes and the fumbles seemed to all bounce Denver's way.

Panthers out-gained Denver by 100 yards, wonder if that'd be the first time a team lost SB ?

Denver gains less than 200 yards, 10 such teams have won the SB but wonder how many came after 1978 when league changed the rules to open up passing game ?

Panther's definately had oppurtunities but a few bad breaks and Denver's defense rose to the occasion time and again. 


I think more then anything this game was a classic case of regression to the mean, Panthers playing on an unsustainable level coming in, not a fix is in or getting PM a send-off SB or Vegas setting the game up for the spread win.

It's my job to learn how to measure regression properly in the playoffs, and as I posted the reason I went smaller on this game was to respect regression.

And to me this is all that happened here, and because the public does not understand or even know what regression is they backed the hotter team and lost because of regression,.



 
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Posted: #149
This was the biggest beat-down I've ever had in any playoffs, and like I said it all started with looking into SOS.

And one of the reason I looked it to it was because of things like .....close wins and fumble recoveries, things that many web sites have researched-out and found over history were bad indicators going forward.


Denver had the most close wins at 9 with 3 close loses while Panthers were 2cd with 7 and only 1 close loss, both teams had a 6 game diff, most by any team.

This is most of the time a bad indicator going forward, but this season was unusual in that both would make the SB and the team with most close wins would win the SB.

For example, FO guts and stomps lost both championship games and the SB going 0-3 SU and ATS, that'd be the first time I've seen it go 0-3. Unusual for sure.

But because Panthers did not look good in close wins and because they were a tad below the ave SB winning teams in common denominators did not sound right for a team PR II had as one of the best in history, just did not seem right.

When we look at other top teams in PRII like 2013 Seahawks were 5-3 in close wins only +2 diff
2000 Ravens 4-3 =1 diff


I'm always looking to improve things if possible but maybe I can not improve any more then what it is.

Had I backed the teams with a 6 pt diff to closing line in PR's we were 2-2 ATS if we got best available line and with picks posted here went 1-2-1 ATS because got Pitt +7 over Denver when best line was 7.5 or 8.

Would have won with Panthers to win the NFC and lost with them to win SB.

All in all we could of hung in there and not gotten buried , and sometimes avoiding getting buried is just as important   as winning big .


Hopefully I'll learn from the experience and get back on track.....................BOL boys.........................
 
 
 
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