IT'S NFL PLAYOFF TIME .....................2016

There were more teams in one division then the rest of the league combined.

Panthers played the 2 other weak divisions who also played the next 2 weakest schedules.

AFC South with only 1 team had a positive point margin, Texans +1.6 and they did that VS very weak schedule.

NFC East had 1 team with ;positive point margin, Skins +.6, and those 8 teams in the 2 divisions played weak schedule and could not produce a positive point margin except the 2 div winners very small 1.6 and .6.

How did the best 2 teams those divisions could offer do on WC weekend ? 30-0 demolition and a 35-18 beat-down.

It's how you play your schedule that counts most.

How did the Panthers do ?

Panthers have the 2cd most close 1 score games at 7, Denver with 9.

Panthers were the best in the one area that is most random, fumbles recovered +6, tied with Steelers and 1 fumle ahead of Denver +5, Skins +5.

Random events lead to close games that you easily could of lost. 

Interesting that  2 of the teams with the most fumbles recovered also have the most close wins. Hhhmmmmmm

Panthers ave per pass att differential was just 1.3 very mediorce for a SB winner.

Panthers QBPR diff was 25.7 , slightly below ave for SB winners..

So playing the weakest of teams Panthers put up slightly below ave SB winning stats.

The one thing they did do well is win the TO battle +20, teams +20  or better have not made many SB's , I will look more into that but am pretty sure it does not bode well for teams unless they dominated in other ares which the Panthers do not. 

How did they play their schedule ?

0 close wins, historical QBPR diff at 45.1, monster ave per pass diff at 2.3, Rams almost doubled the Panthers.

Rams off their weak schedule are 1 of just 2 teams since 1978, first year of 16 game schedule to win the SB that did not post a winning ATS record throughout the playoffs, 2003 Pats the other.

Despite losing the fumble battle big  they had 0 close 1 score wins.

Fantastic stuff!  I love creative thinking and original, unique numbers, and it confirms how over-valued DEN is.

My lines.................................

Pats -2.49 over KC

Steelers -1.09 over Denver

Zona -10.65 over Packers

Panthers -2.71 over Seahawks

10-1 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line over 11 seasons in divisional round. No plays past 2 years.

Possible play on Steelers, but like the Bengals in WC possible injuried QB.

Teams under a 6 point favorite with a lean on the line to the dog.....7-10 SU, not sure the ATS don't have it written down but we know they'd be worse then 7-10.

Last season went 2-0 ATS with both dogs almost pulling the SU win but lost.

Great spot for SU dog wins, with KC, Steelers and possibly Seahawks.

8.5 favorites or better with a lean to the line on fav, 13-5 SU but just 9-9 ATS.

Im coming up w/ a KC win by .18 points in my early assesment w/ still some variables to consider.

My gut tells me Peyton and Brady will face off for the last time. ATS is a whole nother game

If that is a very small sample then I ave it it with the team ave.  Other player injuries I have no way to know the value they bring or the value a back-up may bring.

The PR do still work even with the injuries but not as well as without injuries.

Both PR I and II with 6 pt diff  and the bonus pts with a 4.5 pt diff to line  won with Bengals in WC games , the only play that qualified.

But last year we did lose with Denver over the Colts when Manning played with torn Quad.

May be the best thing is to pass on the game, but backup players can be very good players they just never had a chance to show it.

There's many, many examples of backup's coming in and outplaying the starters.

Look at last week , the 2 backs for Steelers were like off the shelf 4th stringers who gained 167 yards and a 5.75 ave, who could have done better ? 

But it can be risky as well, backups can tank to. The way I like to play it is back everything the various method tell me to back and I should be in good shape at the end.

Steelers with Jones +1.62

Broncos -.93 over Steelers...........with Jones and Manning as starting QB's.

Jones has a very small sample size, he has a almost 1 yd per pass ave better then big Ben, Ben has a very strong ave per pass in his lifetime, so not sure Jones can be that good, but his QBPR is 17.2 pts below Ben, because of 7% int rate but over a small sample they ...could be... inflated we just don't know enough to answer that.

And how much will Brown being out affect ave per pass ? Very difficult to answer that but we know almost certainly it will have some affect.

Funny thing here is Laundry Jones #'s are better than Mannings

My lines.....

Pats PK over KC

Broncos -4.73

Zona -13.32 over Packers

Panthers -5.97 over Seahawks

8-1 ATS with a 6 pt diff to closing line in the divisional round since 2009.

If Zona closes -7 or under we have a play

18-6 SU in all games...............14-8 ATS

a losing spread record in the 4 divisional round  games just once since 2009

When the home team is under a 6 pt favorite and a lean to the dog on the line the home team is............7-4 SU and 3-8 ATS

2 games apply..... back KC & Steelers...  possibility  one of these 2 teams pull the SU win

8.5 pt favorite or better and a lean on the line to the favorite......7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Zona

when the dog is the favorite ..................2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS.

no plays

My lines......

Pats -4.94 over KC

Broncos -1.04 over Steelers

Zona -13.56 over Packers

Panthers -2.5 over Seahawks

5 pt fav or better 129-10 SU ..... 2008-2014 ..... 1-1 SU in WC round last week

18-7 ATS with a 4.5 pt diff to closing line ...2008-2014......7-3 ATS in divisional round........ 1-0 ATS in WC round last week

Play on Zona

when the dog is the favorite...........9-1 ATS and 6-4 SU

no plays this week

Gotta figure Steelers should be thrown out b/c of the injuries/uncertainty around Ben and Brown?!  

Love Zona...I don't think that GB is "back" so much as Washington didn't match up with them well (Rodgers vs pathetic secondary that couldn't over match the average WRs of GB).  IMO, Zona should be able to smother the GB WRs even w/out the Honey Badger.  Bakhtiari and Shields back could be huge for GB if returning to the lineup, but I still don't think it matters in the end.  I may buy the hook down to 6.5 though just in case though.

8 of 15 no.1 rated teams made the SB since 2000.

4 of 15 no.2 rated teams made the SB.

12 of 15 no.1 or no.2 rated teams made the SB since 2000.

All 4 no.2 teams were within 2 pts of no.1 rated teams in PR I.

Last season Packers no. 1 who lost NFC championship game  they should of, could of won and Seahawks no.2 did win NFC. Seahawks trailed Packers by 1.29 pts.

2 of the no.1 teams that failed to make SB  had rookie QB's. Big Ben in 2004, Wilson 2012.

Home teams favored on my lines by less than  6 pts with a lean to the dog on the line....................home team is 18-13 SU (58%) and 10-20-1 ATS.....the 10 teams to cover the spread went 2-8 ATS the next week.

All home teams went 40-20 SU since 2000.

 Home teams not included in the above 18-13 SU winners   went 22-7 SU (75.9%) since 2000.

A 17.9% difference.

I would not bet against KC and Steelers this weekend. We need a closing line of Panthers -3 for Seahawks to qualify.

Highly unlikely we finish with a losing spread record on these games and very possible 1 or 2 get SU wins.

4 of 6 no.1 rated teams made the SB since 2009.

No. 1 rated teams 8-3 ATS in playoffs not counting the SB since 2009.

8-2 ATS with a 6 pt difference to closing line.....forgot to update the record after we lost with Denver of Colts last season. 

Of coarse that was the Manning quad injury and he played horrendous, could not throw the ball much more than 5 yards down field.

When injuried QB's play we don't know what to expect, a backup we know is healthy. We did win last season on Rodgers + pts in NFC championship game when he came in with a sprained ankle.

Panthers being no. 1 , and mostly I follow the info to the letter of the law. I don't try to read between the lines. But here the Panthers having played such a weak schedule and having below ave SB winning stats  just don't seem right.

I suspect because PR II places a high value on winning each stat battle even if by a small amount, that their easy schedule made it easy for them to do that and finish no. 1.

Normally schedule strength does not make the PR's better unless it happens to be an exceptionally weak schedule, then it does seem to make a difference.

Going back about 4 or 5 years ago I discovered some common denominators of the surprise wild card round teams that went to and won SB's.

Since that time I did call the Ravens as a possible surprise team going into Foxboro to play Pats and warned everyone to beware.

Then called Ravens to beat the 9ers in SB.

The next year I called the Chargers after the WC games as a possible surprise team and warned everyone to not bet against them going into Denver, and they covered the spread but lost a close game.

Now, we have another team that's beginning to get that surprise team look, I would not bet against this team this coming weekend they have all the common denominators on a very high level.

And that team is.............................KC...............

It's tougher to make the call after just 1 game, after next week I'll know much more, but as of now they do have that look across the board, I would not bet against them.

KC may be a great ML play back to back weeks. If the win SU this week highly likely the win SU next week.

I also called the 2013 9ers as a team that did not have the common denominators when many thought they'd be the WC round team to make SB, but they lost to Seahawks in NFC championship game.