• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Card Crush
          • Casino.click
          • Chanced Casino
          • Crown Coins Casino
          • FreeSpin Casino
          • LoneStar
          • McLuck
          • Mega Bonanza Casino
          • PlayFame
          • Pulsz
          • Stake.us
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • Cloudbet Promo Code
          • RainBet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Thrill Promo Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Kalshi Referral Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • Polymarket Referral Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • Betr Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
      • Gemini Predictions Promo Code
    • NFL Week 3
      NFL Week 3
      • NFL Odds
      • NFL Picks
      • NFL Prediction Markets
      • NFL Betting Sites
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    IT'S NFL PLAYOFF TIME .....................2016

    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
    theclaw
    billywaddy
    suuma
    Crashdavis565
    Lowme
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 19255
    Posts: 150
    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 12:32 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    I hear some talk about how a team can't make 3 SB's or have 3 consecutive great postseason runs. ..............Fact or fiction ???

    SB era began in 1966....................

    Packers won the NFL Championship in 65, then won SB in 66 and 67, 3 straight NFL titles

    70's Dolphins lost SB in 71, won SB in 72, 73, 3 straight great postseason runs.

    80's 9ers, won SB 88 and 89 made the NFC championship game, 3 strong postseason runs

    90's Boys, won SB 92 and 93 made the NFC championship game in 94, won SB in 95, 4 very strong postseason runs

    2000's Pats won SB 2001, 2003 and 2004 , but missed playoffs in 2002 and are the only team and the only decade  to not have a very strong 3 straight years postseason run.


    The Pats are and still remain.... by far.... the weakest statistical team to repeat of the 8 SB repeat winners in the SB era.


    2015 Seattle is a very strong statistical team in the same mold as those throwback teams of 70's. 80's and 90's.


    Each decade saw the team of the decade put together a 3 great year run into the postseason except 2000 with... by far... the weakest statistical team .

    Who do you suppose is the team of the 2010's decade ? 

    Now how did each team do in the 3rd year of their run in the opening playoff game when they got the advantage of playing a weaker opponent ?

    5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS each team won by 17 points or more with the average score being 29-9, even including the Pats in 2004.


    Still want to fade the Seahawks  anyone??............................................................  





    We can add to this the 70's Steelers, won SB in 74 and 75 , got to AFC championship game in 76, crushed their 1st round opp 40-14.


    However, we could also add teams trying for a 3rd year run.

     70's Dallas lost SB 70 and won SB 71 but won their 1st round game the 3rd year 30-28 on the road , I would quess they did not cover.

    70's Dallas won SB 77 and lost SB 78, in 79 going for a 3rd year lost 1st game 21-19.  But Staubach, the starting QB  may have retired and Danny White took over not the same team,.

    80's Skins won SB in 82 but lost SB in 83 , 3rd year lost to Bears 23-19.

    80's Packers won SB in 96 lost SB in 97 , 3rd year lost 1st game but was a push.

    70's Steelers won SB in 78 and 79 and failed to make playoffs after many retirements of Steeler players I think Bradshaw as well.

    80'S Denver won SB 97 , 98 in 99 failed to make playoffs after Elway retired.

    6-2-1 ATS, 7-2 SU with the same QB,  the 6  ATS wins were all 17 points or better SU. Unless you think Vikings win the game , may not be a good stratergy to fade them..................................


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    I hear some talk about how a team can't make 3 SB's or have 3 consecutive great postseason runs. ..............Fact or fiction ???

    SB era began in 1966....................

    Packers won the NFL Championship in 65, then won SB in 66 and 67, 3 straight NFL titles

    70's Dolphins lost SB in 71, won SB in 72, 73, 3 straight great postseason runs.

    80's 9ers, won SB 88 and 89 made the NFC championship game, 3 strong postseason runs

    90's Boys, won SB 92 and 93 made the NFC championship game in 94, won SB in 95, 4 very strong postseason runs

    2000's Pats won SB 2001, 2003 and 2004 , but missed playoffs in 2002 and are the only team and the only decade  to not have a very strong 3 straight years postseason run.


    The Pats are and still remain.... by far.... the weakest statistical team to repeat of the 8 SB repeat winners in the SB era.


    2015 Seattle is a very strong statistical team in the same mold as those throwback teams of 70's. 80's and 90's.


    Each decade saw the team of the decade put together a 3 great year run into the postseason except 2000 with... by far... the weakest statistical team .

    Who do you suppose is the team of the 2010's decade ? 

    Now how did each team do in the 3rd year of their run in the opening playoff game when they got the advantage of playing a weaker opponent ?

    5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS each team won by 17 points or more with the average score being 29-9, even including the Pats in 2004.


    Still want to fade the Seahawks  anyone??............................................................  





    We can add to this the 70's Steelers, won SB in 74 and 75 , got to AFC championship game in 76, crushed their 1st round opp 40-14.


    However, we could also add teams trying for a 3rd year run.

     70's Dallas lost SB 70 and won SB 71 but won their 1st round game the 3rd year 30-28 on the road , I would quess they did not cover.

    70's Dallas won SB 77 and lost SB 78, in 79 going for a 3rd year lost 1st game 21-19.  But Staubach, the starting QB  may have retired and Danny White took over not the same team,.

    80's Skins won SB in 82 but lost SB in 83 , 3rd year lost to Bears 23-19.

    80's Packers won SB in 96 lost SB in 97 , 3rd year lost 1st game but was a push.

    70's Steelers won SB in 78 and 79 and failed to make playoffs after many retirements of Steeler players I think Bradshaw as well.

    80'S Denver won SB 97 , 98 in 99 failed to make playoffs after Elway retired.

    6-2-1 ATS, 7-2 SU with the same QB,  the 6  ATS wins were all 17 points or better SU. Unless you think Vikings win the game , may not be a good stratergy to fade them..................................


     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 12:34 PM ET #27

    Opps should of read 90's Packers and Denver , not 80's.
    Reply
    Opps should of read 90's Packers and Denver , not 80's.
     
    billywaddy
    billywaddy
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2010
    Posts: 1570
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 1:02 PM ET #28

    Thanks Claw. Your work is much appreciated! I can shed some light on that Cowboys loss vs the Rams in 1979. The Boys lost SUATS at home to a 9-7 Rams squad. Dallas owned LA in the 70's and I expected another heartbreaking end to the season in late 1979. However, a young Vince Ferragamo completed a deflected deep crossing route to Billy Waddy to put the Rams up 21-19 with 2 minutes to play. I believe Staubach played at the end of the game because I remember expecting another comeback for Dallas. However, the Rams held and went on to win the NFC Championship that season. Pittsburgh rallied to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl but that Rams team was a scrappy bunch. Thanks again and let's roll the books over this weekend!
    Reply
    Thanks Claw. Your work is much appreciated! I can shed some light on that Cowboys loss vs the Rams in 1979. The Boys lost SUATS at home to a 9-7 Rams squad. Dallas owned LA in the 70's and I expected another heartbreaking end to the season in late 1979. However, a young Vince Ferragamo completed a deflected deep crossing route to Billy Waddy to put the Rams up 21-19 with 2 minutes to play. I believe Staubach played at the end of the game because I remember expecting another comeback for Dallas. However, the Rams held and went on to win the NFC Championship that season. Pittsburgh rallied to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl but that Rams team was a scrappy bunch. Thanks again and let's roll the books over this weekend!
     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 1:03 PM ET #29

    Great stuff! Makes me feel more comfortable with the Hawks! BOL.
    Reply
    Great stuff! Makes me feel more comfortable with the Hawks! BOL.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 1:43 PM ET #30

    I've been playing around with some different indicators trying to possibly come up with bonus pts for the 2 PR's.

    Yards per point differential is a very good indicator in SB games , it was 14-5 ATS , however, because it is much easier to be efficient scoring if a team out-gains it's opp by fewer yards, ( but that is not a good indicator of SB teams) it is 8-1 ATS when the better team in both yards per pt and total yards differential favor the same team.

    But only 6-4 ATS when it does not favor the same team.

    Teams that do well in yards per point but not total yards diff are not teams to back for big runs in playoffs.

    And because the far majority SB winning teams out-gain opps by 35 yards or more and the stronger teams by 50 , even 60 yards or more  

    Of the 8 repeat SB winners since 1966 SB era began, 7 of them out-gained opps by 75  yards or better in 1 of their 2 repeat years. That's domination folks.

    So that got me to thinking, could I come up with some way to find the perfect balance between out-gaining your opp and yards per point.

    So I came up with this, it try's to find the team with the best balance between the two, one team was well above the league a good part of the season untill the final week ..............and that team was........................

    1. Zona 13.28
    2. Seahawks 12.49
    3. Panthers 11.99
    4. Bengals 10.53
    5. Pats 10.05
    6. Steelers 8.12
    7. KC 8.11
    8. Broncos 6.16
    9. Vikes 3.94
    10. Texans 2.94
    11. Packers 2.72
    12 Skins (-.46)


    I Was not sure how to use it, how much weight it should carry in the PR's.

    In SB's since 85 it was 10-4 ATS with a 6 point difference to the line.

    So I back dated it in the playoffs as a PR by itself, it did guide me off a few losing games my other 2 PR's took.

    The early indication may be a vaulable asset to have.

    Giving 3 pts for home field my lines in this indicator......................

    Seahawks -5.55 over Vikes
    Packers -.18 over Skins
    Bengals -5.41 over Steelers
    KC -2.17 over Texans

    Here's the deal since 2008...................................

    29-10 SU as a 5 pt favorite or better...............12-3 SU in WC round
    18-7 ATS with a 4.5 difference to the line.......................7-3 ATS WC round.

    Does not count SB games because for that we need to look also at playoff only results.

    The highest rated team to play wild card weekend went 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS.

    6 of those 7 teams rated 10 or higher according to this method, the remaing team last years Ravens were 8.19 as the highest rated team WC weekend and won 30-17.



    The top teams remain pretty much the same as the two PR's but it does move Steelers up and KC down some.

    KC is very efficient in yards per point but not good at all in out-gaining opps, only by 1.9 yards and that is not stuff SB winners are made of.

    Reply
    I've been playing around with some different indicators trying to possibly come up with bonus pts for the 2 PR's.

    Yards per point differential is a very good indicator in SB games , it was 14-5 ATS , however, because it is much easier to be efficient scoring if a team out-gains it's opp by fewer yards, ( but that is not a good indicator of SB teams) it is 8-1 ATS when the better team in both yards per pt and total yards differential favor the same team.

    But only 6-4 ATS when it does not favor the same team.

    Teams that do well in yards per point but not total yards diff are not teams to back for big runs in playoffs.

    And because the far majority SB winning teams out-gain opps by 35 yards or more and the stronger teams by 50 , even 60 yards or more  

    Of the 8 repeat SB winners since 1966 SB era began, 7 of them out-gained opps by 75  yards or better in 1 of their 2 repeat years. That's domination folks.

    So that got me to thinking, could I come up with some way to find the perfect balance between out-gaining your opp and yards per point.

    So I came up with this, it try's to find the team with the best balance between the two, one team was well above the league a good part of the season untill the final week ..............and that team was........................

    1. Zona 13.28
    2. Seahawks 12.49
    3. Panthers 11.99
    4. Bengals 10.53
    5. Pats 10.05
    6. Steelers 8.12
    7. KC 8.11
    8. Broncos 6.16
    9. Vikes 3.94
    10. Texans 2.94
    11. Packers 2.72
    12 Skins (-.46)


    I Was not sure how to use it, how much weight it should carry in the PR's.

    In SB's since 85 it was 10-4 ATS with a 6 point difference to the line.

    So I back dated it in the playoffs as a PR by itself, it did guide me off a few losing games my other 2 PR's took.

    The early indication may be a vaulable asset to have.

    Giving 3 pts for home field my lines in this indicator......................

    Seahawks -5.55 over Vikes
    Packers -.18 over Skins
    Bengals -5.41 over Steelers
    KC -2.17 over Texans

    Here's the deal since 2008...................................

    29-10 SU as a 5 pt favorite or better...............12-3 SU in WC round
    18-7 ATS with a 4.5 difference to the line.......................7-3 ATS WC round.

    Does not count SB games because for that we need to look also at playoff only results.

    The highest rated team to play wild card weekend went 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS.

    6 of those 7 teams rated 10 or higher according to this method, the remaing team last years Ravens were 8.19 as the highest rated team WC weekend and won 30-17.



    The top teams remain pretty much the same as the two PR's but it does move Steelers up and KC down some.

    KC is very efficient in yards per point but not good at all in out-gaining opps, only by 1.9 yards and that is not stuff SB winners are made of.

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 1:56 PM ET #31

    Bengals +3 (-135) over Steelers --- 5.4 units to win 4 units


    Reply
    Bengals +3 (-135) over Steelers --- 5.4 units to win 4 units


     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 1:59 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by billywaddy:

    Thanks Claw. Your work is much appreciated! I can shed some light on that Cowboys loss vs the Rams in 1979. The Boys lost SUATS at home to a 9-7 Rams squad. Dallas owned LA in the 70's and I expected another heartbreaking end to the season in late 1979. However, a young Vince Ferragamo completed a deflected deep crossing route to Billy Waddy to put the Rams up 21-19 with 2 minutes to play. I believe Staubach played at the end of the game because I remember expecting another comeback for Dallas. However, the Rams held and went on to win the NFC Championship that season. Pittsburgh rallied to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl but that Rams team was a scrappy bunch. Thanks again and let's roll the books over this weekend!


    Yep Staubach did play, just looked it up,  must of retired the next season, makes it 6-3-1 ATS, still a nice record and especially considering all the big blowout winning teams.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by billywaddy:

    Thanks Claw. Your work is much appreciated! I can shed some light on that Cowboys loss vs the Rams in 1979. The Boys lost SUATS at home to a 9-7 Rams squad. Dallas owned LA in the 70's and I expected another heartbreaking end to the season in late 1979. However, a young Vince Ferragamo completed a deflected deep crossing route to Billy Waddy to put the Rams up 21-19 with 2 minutes to play. I believe Staubach played at the end of the game because I remember expecting another comeback for Dallas. However, the Rams held and went on to win the NFC Championship that season. Pittsburgh rallied to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl but that Rams team was a scrappy bunch. Thanks again and let's roll the books over this weekend!


    Yep Staubach did play, just looked it up,  must of retired the next season, makes it 6-3-1 ATS, still a nice record and especially considering all the big blowout winning teams.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 2:00 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Great stuff! Makes me feel more comfortable with the Hawks! BOL.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Great stuff! Makes me feel more comfortable with the Hawks! BOL.


     
    Crashdavis565
    Crashdavis565
    MVP
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2007
    Posts: 15772
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 2:10 PM ET #34

    I really appreciate what you do but am VERY CONCERNED by line action in the Hawks game dropping to 4 from 5. Not the worlds biggest move but every sharp and square on the planet are on the Hawks and the line is moving against them.

    That is the way I roll
    Reply
    I really appreciate what you do but am VERY CONCERNED by line action in the Hawks game dropping to 4 from 5. Not the worlds biggest move but every sharp and square on the planet are on the Hawks and the line is moving against them.

    That is the way I roll
     
    Lowme
    Lowme
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 1678
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 2:13 PM ET #35

    Bengals 
    Reply
    Bengals 
     
    MoopyWilliams
    MoopyWilliams
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2015
    Posts: 148
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 2:18 PM ET #36

    Vikes beat Seattle outright
    Reply
    Vikes beat Seattle outright
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2016 - 8:28 PM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

    I really appreciate what you do but am VERY CONCERNED by line action in the Hawks game dropping to 4 from 5. Not the worlds biggest move but every sharp and square on the planet are on the Hawks and the line is moving against them.

    That is the way I roll

    I did not see the opening  line on Seahawks but did see the line go from 5  rise up to 6, when it hit 6 money came in on Vikes and line fell back to 5.5 then 5.

    I don't see that as everyone one Seattle and line falling, line actually rose untill it hit 6 which is not a key number but a secondary number which is still an important number, players were buying Vikes at that point which makes sense if you like the Vikes.

    Once the line fell back to 5 after books recieved Viking money the anoucement came of Lynch out, well at that point the book thinking that anoucement will bring in more money on the Vikes lowers the number to 4 to offset  Lynch being out.

    That's my read on the line.

    I see that as an advantage on Seahawks getting down to the secondary number of 4,  as running backs don't contribute to winning anywhere near as much as passing efficiency. The offensive line and passing schemes and success  help most any back good enough to make the NFL a good bet to perform well enough to cover that spread  for the Seahawks.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

    I really appreciate what you do but am VERY CONCERNED by line action in the Hawks game dropping to 4 from 5. Not the worlds biggest move but every sharp and square on the planet are on the Hawks and the line is moving against them.

    That is the way I roll

    I did not see the opening  line on Seahawks but did see the line go from 5  rise up to 6, when it hit 6 money came in on Vikes and line fell back to 5.5 then 5.

    I don't see that as everyone one Seattle and line falling, line actually rose untill it hit 6 which is not a key number but a secondary number which is still an important number, players were buying Vikes at that point which makes sense if you like the Vikes.

    Once the line fell back to 5 after books recieved Viking money the anoucement came of Lynch out, well at that point the book thinking that anoucement will bring in more money on the Vikes lowers the number to 4 to offset  Lynch being out.

    That's my read on the line.

    I see that as an advantage on Seahawks getting down to the secondary number of 4,  as running backs don't contribute to winning anywhere near as much as passing efficiency. The offensive line and passing schemes and success  help most any back good enough to make the NFL a good bet to perform well enough to cover that spread  for the Seahawks.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 7:49 AM ET #38

    Seahawks -4 (-120) over Vikes --- 12 units to win 10 units
    Seahawks -3 (-105)  1st half --- 5.25 units to win 5 units


    Speaking of Lynch being out, look what the Steelers did last night with 3 backs had a combined  something like 45 rushing attempts in the regular season..., off the self 4th stringers ......167 yards for a very nice 5.75 ave per play.

    Who would do better ?


    The biggest difference to winning or losing is in the passing game, the QBPR's was almost dead-even in the game......so was the score.
    Reply
    Seahawks -4 (-120) over Vikes --- 12 units to win 10 units
    Seahawks -3 (-105)  1st half --- 5.25 units to win 5 units


    Speaking of Lynch being out, look what the Steelers did last night with 3 backs had a combined  something like 45 rushing attempts in the regular season..., off the self 4th stringers ......167 yards for a very nice 5.75 ave per play.

    Who would do better ?


    The biggest difference to winning or losing is in the passing game, the QBPR's was almost dead-even in the game......so was the score.
     
    iKidUnot
    iKidUnot
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 67
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 8:10 AM ET #39

    How do you see the chances of Christine Michael having a good one?I have him at +140 for a TD and -117 for over 60,5 rushing yards. 
    Reply
    How do you see the chances of Christine Michael having a good one?I have him at +140 for a TD and -117 for over 60,5 rushing yards. 
     
    suuma
    suuma
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 4455
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 8:21 AM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Seahawks -4 (-120) over Vikes --- 12 units to win 10 units
    Seahawks -3 (-105)  1st half --- 5.25 units to win 5 units


    Speaking of Lynch being out, look what the Steelers did last night with 3 backs had a combined  something like 45 rushing attempts in the regular season..., off the self 4th stringers ......167 yards for a very nice 5.75 ave per play.

    Who would do better ?


    The biggest difference to winning or losing is in the passing game, the QBPR's was almost dead-even in the game......so was the score.



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Seahawks -4 (-120) over Vikes --- 12 units to win 10 units
    Seahawks -3 (-105)  1st half --- 5.25 units to win 5 units


    Speaking of Lynch being out, look what the Steelers did last night with 3 backs had a combined  something like 45 rushing attempts in the regular season..., off the self 4th stringers ......167 yards for a very nice 5.75 ave per play.

    Who would do better ?


    The biggest difference to winning or losing is in the passing game, the QBPR's was almost dead-even in the game......so was the score.



     
    Enjoi
    Enjoi
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 2767
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 8:40 AM ET #41

    Great analysis claw, bol 
    Reply
    Great analysis claw, bol 
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 9:35 AM ET #42

    Quote Originally Posted by iKidUnot:

    How do you see the chances of Christine Michael having a good one?I have him at +140 for a TD and -117 for over 60,5 rushing yards. 


    I don't know the chances he does well or poor, what I do know is.... his success or lack of success will contribute... chances are... far less than what the passing efficeincy contributes to who wins and by how much they win.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by iKidUnot:

    How do you see the chances of Christine Michael having a good one?I have him at +140 for a TD and -117 for over 60,5 rushing yards. 


    I don't know the chances he does well or poor, what I do know is.... his success or lack of success will contribute... chances are... far less than what the passing efficeincy contributes to who wins and by how much they win.  
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 12:44 PM ET #43

    COLD WEATHER REPORT


    All this cold weather talk got me to thinking and you know what happens when I do that.

    I looked up the 10 worst weather games, including the ice bowl, snow bowl and fog bowl too.

    Does playing in bad weather give the lesser team a better chance to win ?

    I broke down the 10 games using my PR's 1, the new bunos pts based on yards per pt, point margin and football-references SRS which is point margin with strength of schedule added in.


    First I took pt margin and SRS of all SB 's since 85 and threw out the weak teams from the WC round as those are a product of the era and it will increase the w/l % therefore making it harder for cold weather teams to beat it.


    Here's the result..........................

    Point margin 16-6 or 72.7 %
    SRS 15-9 or 68.2 %

    SRS with strength of schedule has a worse record.

    the ten bad weather games...............................

    Point margin ... 7-2 77.8% one game was even
    SRS .... 7-1 87.5%.... 2 games in 1934 and 1948 there was no SRS , but if we use point margin which was 1-1 in those games that drops the cold weather win % to 80%


    Either way you slice it the better teams won at a higher rate in the worst weather games then they did in SB many played in perfect weather.
    Reply
    COLD WEATHER REPORT


    All this cold weather talk got me to thinking and you know what happens when I do that.

    I looked up the 10 worst weather games, including the ice bowl, snow bowl and fog bowl too.

    Does playing in bad weather give the lesser team a better chance to win ?

    I broke down the 10 games using my PR's 1, the new bunos pts based on yards per pt, point margin and football-references SRS which is point margin with strength of schedule added in.


    First I took pt margin and SRS of all SB 's since 85 and threw out the weak teams from the WC round as those are a product of the era and it will increase the w/l % therefore making it harder for cold weather teams to beat it.


    Here's the result..........................

    Point margin 16-6 or 72.7 %
    SRS 15-9 or 68.2 %

    SRS with strength of schedule has a worse record.

    the ten bad weather games...............................

    Point margin ... 7-2 77.8% one game was even
    SRS .... 7-1 87.5%.... 2 games in 1934 and 1948 there was no SRS , but if we use point margin which was 1-1 in those games that drops the cold weather win % to 80%


    Either way you slice it the better teams won at a higher rate in the worst weather games then they did in SB many played in perfect weather.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 12:51 PM ET #44

    Using the bonus pts method which over the past 8 years produced a 29-10  SU 74.4% in games with a 5 pt fav or better

    In the 10 worst weather games with a 5 pt fav it's 5-1 SU  83 %, again the better team wins at a higher rate.


    PR I...........................

    In SB' with a 5 pt or better favorite it is 15-5 SU 75%

    In the ten worst weather games it is 4-1 SU 80% with a 5 pt favorite or better 

    It's a small sample size yes, but the early indication is.............back the better team............................

    Reply
    Using the bonus pts method which over the past 8 years produced a 29-10  SU 74.4% in games with a 5 pt fav or better

    In the 10 worst weather games with a 5 pt fav it's 5-1 SU  83 %, again the better team wins at a higher rate.


    PR I...........................

    In SB' with a 5 pt or better favorite it is 15-5 SU 75%

    In the ten worst weather games it is 4-1 SU 80% with a 5 pt favorite or better 

    It's a small sample size yes, but the early indication is.............back the better team............................

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 12:54 PM ET #45

    ICE BOWL.........................

    Packers pulled out a late come-back win 

    Point margin   Packers 8.8, Dallas 5.3
    SRS  Packers 9.4 Dallas 2.9

    My lines............ Packers -7.31 and Packers -7.37

    The better team found a way to win despite the cold weather
    Reply
    ICE BOWL.........................

    Packers pulled out a late come-back win 

    Point margin   Packers 8.8, Dallas 5.3
    SRS  Packers 9.4 Dallas 2.9

    My lines............ Packers -7.31 and Packers -7.37

    The better team found a way to win despite the cold weather
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 12:56 PM ET #46

    FOG BOWL

    Point margin , Bears 6.1, Eagles 3.8
    SRS Bears 6.6, Eagles 3.4

    My lines, Bears -10.23, and  10.38

    Even when neither team can see the clearly  better team found a way to win.
    Reply
    FOG BOWL

    Point margin , Bears 6.1, Eagles 3.8
    SRS Bears 6.6, Eagles 3.4

    My lines, Bears -10.23, and  10.38

    Even when neither team can see the clearly  better team found a way to win.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 1:00 PM ET #47

    Viking TT under 17 --- 2.2 units to win 2 units
    Viking TT under 7.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
    Reply
    Viking TT under 17 --- 2.2 units to win 2 units
    Viking TT under 7.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 2:32 PM ET #48

    Seahawks 2cd half -4 (-125) --- 6.25 units to win 5 units
    Reply
    Seahawks 2cd half -4 (-125) --- 6.25 units to win 5 units
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 3:14 PM ET #49

    Seahawks down 9-0....... +5 --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
    Reply
    Seahawks down 9-0....... +5 --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
     
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12169
    Posted: Jan. 10, 2016 - 4:10 PM ET #50

    That bad break  I caught in last years SB when Butler knew the play called..........just got it back ..............


    Would lean the bounce factor fading the Skins.
    Reply
    That bad break  I caught in last years SB when Butler knew the play called..........just got it back ..............


    Would lean the bounce factor fading the Skins.
    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵 450,267
    • Friday 09/25/2026 681
    • 🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets 260,800
    • NFL LOCKED IN! 100,409
    • Happening just recently . . . 34,763
    • NCAA FOOTBALL. 151 25,579
    • Public Indicator Calculations 2026 14,875
    • Falcons vs Packers TNF in-game live 2,171
    • ***Macwesties * Thur. * Sun. Sept. 24, 27, 2026 * Week #3 * NFL Football Plays* 4,436
    • NCAA WEEK 4 *** Parlay Picasso *** 5,006

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Ultimate Race
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.