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IT'S NFL PLAYOFF TIME .....................2016

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Posted: #76
Speaking of GB, are the Packers and Rodgers back ?

This is why we look beyond the final score.

Packers out-played the Skins in PR I by just 3.16 points not 17, not even close to 17 pts.

Packers out-played Skins in PR II by 9.8 pts, a little better but not close to the actual score.

Nope, Packers are not back, they are not as good as they looked last weekend..............it's all Zona next weekend ..............


Compare that to KC who dominated their game by 34 and 29 pts.
 
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Posted: #77
As always claw, I love your insight man. It's second to none. Wondering.....when do you think you will have your picks in? I usually will cap the games and then check in with about 7 or 8 guys on here to see if I'm in the same vein as them. For Saturdays game, I'm leaning KC and cards to cover. Not pulling the trigger yet though....Thanks claw and BOL
 
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Posted: #78
It's more about the GB defense than their offense. LT Bakthiari being back will be huge for the Packers. The backup-Tackles got crushed last time.
 
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Posted: #79
Wild card round ...FAVORITES... who advanced to divisional round are 8-1 ATS

Play on KC, Steelers, Seahawks

Wild card round teams in same season revenge spot coming off scoring 34 pts or more are 1-7 ATS in divisional round.

Fade Packers

This from Marc Lawerance


Falls perfectly with all the plays we have here..............
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

As always claw, I love your insight man. It's second to none. Wondering.....when do you think you will have your picks in? I usually will cap the games and then check in with about 7 or 8 guys on here to see if I'm in the same vein as them. For Saturdays game, I'm leaning KC and cards to cover. Not pulling the trigger yet though....Thanks claw and BOL

Picks will be on Steelers, KC, Seahawks and a best bet on Zona.

Waiting out the lines but did miss getting Seahawks at +3

Will likely take KC ML in hopes they become the surprise team of WC round and let it ride next week, if the beat Pats I think hands-down the go to SB.
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

It's more about the GB defense than their offense. LT Bakthiari being back will be huge for the Packers. The backup-Tackles got crushed last time.


Maybe so but Packers not in Zona's league.

Skins were likely the worst team in the playoff, they finished last in 2 of the 3 PR's.

Packers won the all-important QBPR battle 93.5-91.7 = 1.8 VS the worst team the playoff had to offer.

That's is not stuff 17 pt wins are made of unless they did something else like win TO big, that was even,  or the ave gain per pass battle big, that was almost even as well. 

And remember Skins were a bounce factor fade which is a very typical spot where teams lose because of regression, so Packers beat a team in a spot proven over history where teams are known to lose, and they play them almost even.

Packers are not as good as they look last weekend and are not overall in Zona's league.

I see a 14-17 pt Zona win coming this weekend.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:



Maybe so but Packers not in Zona's league.

Skins were likely the worst team in the playoff, they finished last in 2 of the 3 PR's.

Packers won the all-important QBPR battle 93.5-91.7 = 1.8 VS the worst team the playoff had to offer.

That's is not stuff 17 pt wins are made of unless they did something else like win TO big, that was even,  or the ave gain per pass battle big, that was almost even as well. 

And remember Skins were a bounce factor fade which is a very typical spot where teams lose because of regression, so Packers beat a team in a spot proven over history where teams are known to lose, and they play them almost even.

Packers are not as good as they look last weekend and are not overall in Zona's league.

I see a 14-17 pt Zona win coming this weekend.

Yikes, Im leaning opposite on all except SEA (at +1 ML might hold the most value...RLM moving more bets towards CAR) due to key injuries/returning players.

SEA is going to obviously have a tough matchup with Norman on Baldwin.... but with CAR's other 2 starting cb's out what about Kearse and Lockett? This mismatch + motivation factor has me close to pulling trigger on SEA.

I hopped off AZ and am now behind GB because 3 of the best defenders n Zona are going to be out, but theyre still going to play an overly agressive defensive style. With out the key play makers this can burn them with Lacy and Starks being dangerous short pass options (AZ is in the bottom of the league in YAC).

DEN...if Big Ben cant launch missles and their running game is no good, how are they going to convert 3rs downs let alone score? We would be counting on Peyton Manning to lose the game, but with Pits weak secondary I can see him doing enough as a game manager to pull off a 10+ point win. At -8 I might not play this game, but definitely wouldnt touch PIT.

KC is in a terrible mismatch situation. Their pass rush is going to suffer due to Hali/Houston injuries, and without Maclin theyre going to rely on West/Ware and Kelce. This does not look good against a well rested Pats D with elite play calling backing them up. I see NE blowing them out badly. 

My 2 cents, GL man and thanks for sharing your info


 
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Posted: #83
You say picks will be on steelers, KC, Seattle and best bet on zona. Aside from KC ML which you said you would be playing, are these spread picks and if so what numbers do you have them at? With brown out in Pittsburgh, does this change your angle at all? He did have a monster game last time they played. I'm not opposed to the pick I just feel with a banged up Ben and a third string back, it could be tough to move the ball in Denver at night. Thanks claw.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:



Maybe so but Packers not in Zona's league.

Skins were likely the worst team in the playoff, they finished last in 2 of the 3 PR's.

Packers won the all-important QBPR battle 93.5-91.7 = 1.8 VS the worst team the playoff had to offer.

That's is not stuff 17 pt wins are made of unless they did something else like win TO big, that was even,  or the ave gain per pass battle big, that was almost even as well. 

And remember Skins were a bounce factor fade which is a very typical spot where teams lose because of regression, so Packers beat a team in a spot proven over history where teams are known to lose, and they play them almost even.

Packers are not as good as they look last weekend and are not overall in Zona's league.

I see a 14-17 pt Zona win coming this weekend.
Couldn't agree more...not to mention the Skins don't/didn't have the secondary talent to shut down GB pass offense like I expect Zona to do.  It seems crazy to say, but the Zona offense is light years ahead of GB (w/ Rodgers).  Floyd, Fitz, both Browns' and David Johnson...that's a lot of weapons to deal with.  

One other thing I haven't really thought about yet is the coaching...Arians huge advantage over the dope McCarthy.
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:


Yikes, Im leaning opposite on all except SEA (at +1 ML might hold the most value...RLM moving more bets towards CAR) due to key injuries/returning players.

SEA is going to obviously have a tough matchup with Norman on Baldwin.... but with CAR's other 2 starting cb's out what about Kearse and Lockett? This mismatch + motivation factor has me close to pulling trigger on SEA.

I hopped off AZ and am now behind GB because 3 of the best defenders n Zona are going to be out, but theyre still going to play an overly agressive defensive style. With out the key play makers this can burn them with Lacy and Starks being dangerous short pass options (AZ is in the bottom of the league in YAC).

DEN...if Big Ben cant launch missles and their running game is no good, how are they going to convert 3rs downs let alone score? We would be counting on Peyton Manning to lose the game, but with Pits weak secondary I can see him doing enough as a game manager to pull off a 10+ point win. At -8 I might not play this game, but definitely wouldnt touch PIT.

KC is in a terrible mismatch situation. Their pass rush is going to suffer due to Hali/Houston injuries, and without Maclin theyre going to rely on West/Ware and Kelce. This does not look good against a well rested Pats D with elite play calling backing them up. I see NE blowing them out badly. 

My 2 cents, GL man and thanks for sharing your info




The problem with stats like yac is they only measure part of the story.

What if a QB throws a swing pass to the back 3 yards behind the line of scimmage and he runs fore a 8 yard after the catch but he only gains 5 yards on the play, that would be a good result for pass defense to give up 5 yds per pass.

Ave per pass measures everything a pass defenses does, it is not limited to measuring just 1 thing.

Ave per pass Zona is 9th the Skins are 26th and Rodgers performed below his ave for the season against the 26th ranked pass defense.

Rodgers ave a very mediorce  6.1 while Palmer has a monster over 8 yds per pass.

Do you have any idea how good over 8 yds is ?

Zona out-gained opps by 1.7 yards and they were over 2 yds per pass before the Seattle game which is a very, very strong number that not many teams get to.

Packers out-gain their opps by 0, and they out-gained the worst team to make the playoffs with the 26th ranked defense by 5.5 -5.2 = by a whopping .3 .

I would count that info far more important then YAC.
 
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Posted: #86
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE.........................

as measured by SRS from football-reference.

Since 2000 there have only been 12 teams with a strength of schedule difference of 2.8 or better

Stronger schedule is ...9-3 ATS

3 pt diff is...... 7-.2 ATS
3.5 diff is .........4-1 ATS
4 diff is 2-1 ....ATS

Including another 15-1 team who lost SU to the dog 37-20 ...................................................2011 Packers -1.2 VS Giants +2 =  a 3.2 diff.

Just think, there has only been 3 games in 15 seasons with a 4 pt diff and only 1 over 4.5.

Seattle +2.2
Panthers -3.9 
Diff of a whopping...... 6.1

KC +1.6
Pats -2.4
diff of ..........4

It works in other rounds as well and just came off ......KC over Texans diff off 4 and Packers over Skins diff of 5... 2 blow-out winners last round were the largest strength of schedule differences.

And what appears to make it even better is if I have other methods on the stronger strength of schedule team as we do here on KC and Seattle.


We may have a good oppurtunity to back KC 1st half and 2cd half and game.

We will in all likelyhood let 50% our 1st half winnings... if we win.... ride on the 2cd half of coarse depending on the situation but check back at halftime, I will try to get it out quick.
 
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Posted: #87
Here's the kicker..............all 3 losses ATS with a 2.8 diff we had other methods favoring the weaker schedule team,  when our methods favored the stronger schedule team we are 8-0 ATS and remember we just came off 2 blow-out winners in WC round  where we had leans on both KC over Texans and Packers over Skins with methods favoring the stronger schedule team.
 
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Posted: #88
Since 2000 there have been 9 seasons with home teams winning 3 games or more SU and 6 seasons with home teams winning 2 games or fewer SU.

2 games or fewer hit 4 straight seasons and 6 of 8 at one point but now we are on a 3 wins or better 4 straight seasons and 5 of past 6 seasons.

Since the league went to 8 divisions with 4 teams each which in 2002 that seemed to change how things played-out......................... there have been 7 seasons with 3 wins or better and....... 6 seasons with home teams winning just 2 games or fewer , about a 50-50 possibility and with home teams now off 4 straight 3 wins or better and 5 of 6 we can likely expect a regression back to just 2 home teams or fewer winning this season.

Which fits perfectly all the other info supporting such a thing to happen, don't be surprised guys if 2 dogs or even 3  win SU this weekend. 


 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

THE BOUNCE FACTOR................16-10 ATS..........5-2 ATS 1st half

We have fades on Texans and Skins and a best bet fade on Vikings

Vikes playing on a very high unsustainable level, they are a home field bounce factor fade as well, I'd have a strong lean on Vikes TT pts under.



UNDERVALUED TEAMS........................20-10

We have plays on, Bengals, Texans, Skins


The 2 methods contradict each other on the Texans and Skins game, but I'd side with the bounce factor..... "if"..... I took any action.



THE POWER RATINGS BOUNCE FACTOR.....................roughly about 50% this season

We have fade on Vikes and a stronger fade on Texans


Vikings are very, very  deep in the regression zone, not likely to sustain their play much longer.



The other very good indicator is to fade the hottest team off the most SU wins coming into playoffs, that be KC.

Will pass on the KC/Texans game but would make a small lean to back the bounce factor and fade the Texans.







WILD CARD ROUND GAMES.........................................

THE BOUNCE FACTOR..............2-1 ATS

UNDERVALUED TEAMS ..........1-2 ATS

We did lean with the bounce factor in both teams which contradicted each other on the 2 methods and both were winners on KC and Packers.


POWER RATINGS BOUNCE FACTOR...................1-1 ATS but we did win the stronger play fading the Texans.


DIVISIONAL ROUND GAMES...............................

The bounce factor...............no plays

undervalued teams............play on Steelers

power ratings bounce factor ................no plays
 
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Posted: #90
Injuries obviously can play a big role, we just don't know if Big Ben will play at 50% or 60% or 80% or maybe not even play and maybe not play the entire game and when he could get knock-out of the game or just have to give-up on the game.


The best way to play this is ...no play... pass on the game or lower our bet to be very small which I will do here.

We have won many times with injuries, just did it last week with Dalton out, did it last season backing a injuried Rodgers VS Seahawks with a sprained ankle when he is a great scrambler.

But we also lost last season backing Manning and his torn quad when he could not throw the ball more then 5 yds down field.

Wait out the Steelers line and see if we can get 10 or buy up to 10 if only a half point away. Line seems to be rising a bit. Not sure how much but wait it out.
 
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Posted: #91
Zona -7 (-120) over Packers --- 12 units to win 10 units....best bet play
Zona -4 (-120) 1st half --- 6 units to win 5 units
 
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Posted: #92
Claw:

Thanks for your angles and research. Much appreciated. Can you explain an earlier statement you made about Green Bay? IIRC You said fade teams off a 34 point WC team total who are in a same season revenge spot. I figured a same season revenge spot would favor the team that got crushed (Green Bay) the first meeting. Minnesota was in a similar spot last week and we saw how close they were to pulling off the SU dog win. Thanks again and good luck this weekend. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by billywaddy:

Claw:

Thanks for your angles and research. Much appreciated. Can you explain an earlier statement you made about Green Bay? IIRC You said fade teams off a 34 point WC team total who are in a same season revenge spot. I figured a same season revenge spot would favor the team that got crushed (Green Bay) the first meeting. Minnesota was in a similar spot last week and we saw how close they were to pulling off the SU dog win. Thanks again and good luck this weekend. 



That trend is in the divisional round with a team coming off 34 pt in WC round, Vikings did not score 34 in WC round.
 
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Posted: #97
KC +6 (-120) over Pats --- 7.2 units to win 6 units
KC 1st half -3 (-105) --- 4.2 units to win 4 units

if we win 1st half we let half ride or 4.1 units on KC 2cd half, of course it will depend the situation, a 17, 20 pt lead or better  and may back down .

KC ML +190 --- 1.5 units to win 2.85 units

win this we let it ride on KC next week.
 
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Posted: #98
KC down 8 +.5 over Pats 2cd half --- 2.2 units to win 2 units
 
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Posted: #99
Son of a gun, KC had a few good oppurtunities but couldn't cash in.

But I wouldn't count them out............................
 
 
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