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IT'S NFL PLAYOFF TIME .....................2016

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Posted: #1
POWER RATING I

This PR counts offense and defense equally, is pass heavy.

1. Seahawks 12.86
2. Panthers 12.57
3. Zona 11.74
4. Bengals 11.48.....with Dalton
5. KC 8.34
6. Pats 7.83.....if we throw-out the Eagles and Dolphins games with multiple injuries
7. Bengals 6.79 ......with AJ
8. Pats 5.31 ....all 16 games
9. Packers 4.09
10. Broncos 3.8....with Brock
11. Texans 3.77
12. Steelers 3.64
13. Skins 1.18
14. Vikes 1.05
15. Broncos (-.45).........with Manning...........someone had to come in last and it was Manning and his pathetic 67 QBPR and horrendous 17 int's or over 5% int's.



We have a play with a 6 point difference to the closing line. Home teams receive 3 points.


MY LINES...............................

Seahawks -8.81 over Vikes
Skins -.09 over Packers 

KC -1.57 over Texans
Bengals with AJ -6.15 over Steelers


AJ has just 3 games under his belt, he may have mopped up another few games but that's a very small sample size, 

We just don't know enough about him to make a good call, but I'd side with the Bengals this weekend.
 
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Posted: #2
POWER RATINGS II

This PR is  balance heavy with extra credit for better defenses and teams who don't turn the ball over. It places a high value on winning each key stat battle, even if only by a small amount. 

1. Panthers 15.29
2. Seahawks 12.32
3. Zona 11.43
4. Bengals 9.81...in the 3 games AJ played but 2 of the 3 games were VS 49ers and Ravens , 2 bad teams.
4. KC 9.25
5. Bengals 8.21
6. Pats 6.25..........throwing out the Eagles/Dolphin games
6. Pats 4.39 ......in all 16 games
7. Broncos 3.27
8. Texans 2.04
9. Vikes 2.01
10. Steelers 1.54
11. Packers 1.11
12. Skins (-1.51)



We don't know enough about AJ but the info strongly suggest Bengals are far better then Steelers as a team.

The Panthers have played the weakest schedule according to football-reference and their division is easily the worst with 3 teams -3 or worse, there are only 2 other teams in the remaining 28 teams combined -3 or worse.

And the Panthers -3.9 is easily the easiest schedule in the league.


MY FAVORITE TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL IS..................SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, for the 3rd year in a row...........with Zona being a very close 2cd choice.

Those 2 teams should battle it out in the NFC Championship game  with the winner hoisting the SB trophy after it's all said and done.

I would not count Zona out, it will be a game for the ages and either team could win but I'd lean the Seahawks to pull out the win and move into the SB.
 
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Posted: #3
 
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Love your work... but I can't help but think your PRs don't factor in strength of schedule.  Broncos played easily the hardest schedule of any of the playoff teams, and went 5-2 against the playoff field, which is better than any other teams.  Only Arizona comes close to that.  In fact, 7 of the 12 playoff teams were sub-.500 against the field.

The Super Bowl will almost certainly be won by one of the following teams:

Seahawks, Cards, Panthers, Broncos

Longshots:  Bengals, Chiefs, Packers, Steelers

Shot in hell:  Pats, Vikings, Texans, Redskins
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Posted: #5
I am currently working on my final Power Ranking that also includes SOS. It isn't adjusted to injuries, it just includes the performances of a team during 16 games. It is also pass-heavy.


I guess it will be close to yours. Will be sharing.
 
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Posted: #6
Without SOS:

1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. Cincy
4. Carolina
5. New England
6. KC
7. Pittsburgh
8. Denver
10. Green Bay
11. Washington
13. Houston
16. Minnesota

With SOS:

1. Seattle
2. Cincy
3. Arizona
4. KC
5. Carolina
6. Pittsburgh
7. Denver
8. Green Bay
9. New England
15. Washington
16. Minnesota
18. Houston

My initial leans were WSH & HOU, but I was just blinded by recent performances. Getting a clue on the overall picture helps a lot.

Washington and Houston wouldn't have made the playoffs in different divisions.
 
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Posted: #7
 Claw, Suuma 

 Nice work gentlemen......thanks. Wouldn't it be more accurate to pare these down to results for the 2nd half of the season? Or does it not change much? Some of the teams played either an unbalanced schedule or have recovered from some injuries early on.
 
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Posted: #8
@MUGG: the problem is that it's not a good sample size after half a season, especially the SOS. Even 16 is not great mathematically, but it covers the whole season and it's pretty accurate on a comparison-base.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:

Love your work... but I can't help but think your PRs don't factor in strength of schedule.  Broncos played easily the hardest schedule of any of the playoff teams, and went 5-2 against the playoff field, which is better than any other teams.  Only Arizona comes close to that.  In fact, 7 of the 12 playoff teams were sub-.500 against the field.

The Super Bowl will almost certainly be won by one of the following teams:

Seahawks, Cards, Panthers, Broncos

Longshots:  Bengals, Chiefs, Packers, Steelers

Shot in hell:  Pats, Vikings, Texans, Redskins

I've found that the PR's do better ATS without  SOS over the years, but the one thing that seems maybe to be a factor is if a team plays an extreme easy schedule.

 Similar to Panthers but what constitues extreme easy schedule is debatable.

I looked at football-reference SOS, Packers 2.5, Seattle 2.2, Steelers 2.2, Denver 2.1, Zona 1.3

FO SOS Denver was 10th, Bengals 13th, Seattle 15th, Zona 16th

According to those 2 Denver is not much harder then Seattle's schedule but look at the difference of how they played that schedule, Seattle was dominate and Denver was not very good.

When you look back at history most teams win titles dominate in the regular season, Denver does not fit that, they have 9... one score wins, that is not a good indicator of Denver going forward.


 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

 Claw, Suuma 

 Nice work gentlemen......thanks. Wouldn't it be more accurate to pare these down to results for the 2nd half of the season? Or does it not change much? Some of the teams played either an unbalanced schedule or have recovered from some injuries early on.

I agree with Suma, small sample size .

Some years ago FO took their weighted DVOA and ENTIRE regular season DVOA and found the regular season was better predictors of playoffs.

You possibily can google it, still there last I check.

Now FO just reported on their site that the 2 are almost even at predicting the playoffs.

I've found that injuries do affect the results but the PR's still have won even with injuries, I would not be surprised at all based on past results that AJ leads Bengals over the Steelers this week.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Without SOS:

1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. Cincy
4. Carolina
5. New England
6. KC
7. Pittsburgh
8. Denver
10. Green Bay
11. Washington
13. Houston
16. Minnesota

With SOS:

1. Seattle
2. Cincy
3. Arizona
4. KC
5. Carolina
6. Pittsburgh
7. Denver
8. Green Bay
9. New England
15. Washington
16. Minnesota
18. Houston

My initial leans were WSH & HOU, but I was just blinded by recent performances. Getting a clue on the overall picture helps a lot.

Washington and Houston wouldn't have made the playoffs in different divisions.


Interesting, yea Seahawks are the best team with Zona and Bengals the best team in AFC, to bad Dalton went down, I could see alot of value backing Bengals because of their past failures, but this is a different team.

If the get past this week which I think they will have a great chance to do and Dalton comes back could beat the Pats next week.
 
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Posted: #12
In 1997  teams from the Wild Card round began their assult on the SB.

11 Teams in 18 season from the Wild Card round made the SB with 7 teams winning the title and going a incredible 10-0-1 ATS.

Remember just a few years ago after 3 teams from the Wild Card Round  2010 Packers, 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens won the SB and many pundits and many here on the site were picking teams from WC round to win the SB the next year  and many picking both teams  making the SB from WC round  which would be a 1st.

Well, after 2 years of no teams making the SB  seems everyone has long forgot the incredible run these teams have been on.

In the 18 seasons since 1997 we saw just 2 back-to-back seasons of a team from WC round not making the SB, 2001/2002 and 2013/2014, we have not seen 3 straight years which we will for the first time since 1997.......if no such team makes it this season.


Of the 11 teams from WC round to make the SB, 4 were strong statistical teams and ranked amoung the best if not the best team in the league  according to my PR's.

97 Denver then 3 years later.....2000  Ravens then 5 years later......2005 Steelers then 5 years later ..............2010 Packers and now it's 5 years later again.................. 2015 Seahawks ???


Now that most everyone has long forgotten those teams from the Wild Card round don't be surprised if for the very 1st time we see 2 teams from the WC round in the SB.....................................
 
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Posted: #13
Great stuff claw
 
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Posted: #14
@claw: completely agree on the Seahawks. Last playoff-season I faded them just because of my power ranking and their bad matchups. They just declined from 2013. I had them ranked 7th and NE was 1st.
 
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Posted: #15
Nice stuff,  love your playoff threads!
 
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Posted: #16
The beauty of backing strong teams on the road is the line is small and a win almost equals a cover.

The 4 strong SB winners from the WC round went 16-0 ATS and 14-1-1 SU with  15-1 ATS in the 1st half.

We'll be coming on the Seahawks this weekend.
 
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Posted: #17
I'm on KC and CIN, really like SEA myself.

GL Man, nice power rankings and logic
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

In 1997  teams from the Wild Card round began their assult on the SB.

11 Teams in 18 season from the Wild Card round made the SB with 7 teams winning the title and going a incredible 10-0-1 ATS.

Remember just a few years ago after 3 teams from the Wild Card Round  2010 Packers, 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens won the SB and many pundits and many here on the site were picking teams from WC round to win the SB the next year  and many picking both teams  making the SB from WC round  which would be a 1st.

Well, after 2 years of no teams making the SB  seems everyone has long forgot the incredible run these teams have been on.

In the 18 seasons since 1997 we saw just 2 back-to-back seasons of a team from WC round not making the SB, 2001/2002 and 2013/2014, we have not seen 3 straight years which we will for the first time since 1997.......if no such team makes it this season.


Of the 11 teams from WC round to make the SB, 4 were strong statistical teams and ranked amoung the best if not the best team in the league  according to my PR's.

97 Denver then 3 years later.....2000  Ravens then 5 years later......2005 Steelers then 5 years later ..............2010 Packers and now it's 5 years later again.................. 2015 Seahawks ???


Now that most everyone has long forgotten those teams from the Wild Card round don't be surprised if for the very 1st time we see 2 teams from the WC round in the SB.....................................

wow unreal.. I was looking into the same thing and it is likely Seattle. I don't see any other wild card team making any noise..
 
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So u like Seattle and big lean on cincy; I like those. What about houston/KC and wash/GB? Those games are tough. I like GB and lean KC. what ya think in claw? Any stats or leans that provide plays? As always amigo, appreciate what you do. Thx
 
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With Marshawn Lynch out now, what are your thoughts? Do u still like seattle at -5.5? Does this hurt seattle that much? Very interested to hear your thoughts bud. Thanks amigo.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by sunglow:


wow unreal.. I was looking into the same thing and it is likely Seattle. I don't see any other wild card team making any noise..

We need to keep in mind the weak statistcal teams from WC that made SB were teams no-one could see prior to playoffs.

The 2012 Ravens finished the year on a 1-5 run.

I have indicators that can find this teams as the playoffs progress, but not before,  I did find the Ravens prior to the AFC championship game and called them to win the SB over the 9ers.

After each round I'll do a report on possible surprise teams no-one could see.
 
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THE BOUNCE FACTOR................16-10 ATS..........5-2 ATS 1st half

We have fades on Texans and Skins and a best bet fade on Vikings

Vikes playing on a very high unsustainable level, they are a home field bounce factor fade as well, I'd have a strong lean on Vikes TT pts under.



UNDERVALUED TEAMS........................20-10

We have plays on, Bengals, Texans, Skins


The 2 methods contradict each other on the Texans and Skins game, but I'd side with the bounce factor..... "if"..... I took any action.



THE POWER RATINGS BOUNCE FACTOR.....................roughly about 50% this season

We have fade on Vikes and a stronger fade on Texans


Vikings are very, very  deep in the regression zone, not likely to sustain their play much longer.



The other very good indicator is to fade the hottest team off the most SU wins coming into playoffs, that be KC.

Will pass on the KC/Texans game but would make a small lean to back the bounce factor and fade the Texans.





 
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Posted: #23
I hear some talk about how a team can't make 3 SB's or have 3 consecutive great postseason runs. ..............Fact or fiction ???

SB era began in 1966....................

Packers won the NFL Championship in 65, then won SB in 66 and 67, 3 straight NFL titles

70's Dolphins lost SB in 71, won SB in 72, 73, 3 straight great postseason runs.

80's 9ers, won SB 88 and 89 made the NFC championship game, 3 strong postseason runs

90's Boys, won SB 92 and 93 made the NFC championship game in 94, won SB in 95, 4 very strong postseason runs

2000's Pats won SB 2001, 2003 and 2004 , but missed playoffs in 2002 and are the only team and the only decade  to not have a very strong 3 straight years postseason run.


The Pats are and still remain.... by far.... the weakest statistical team to repeat of the 8 SB repeat winners in the SB era.


2015 Seattle is a very strong statistical team in the same mold as those throwback teams of 70's. 80's and 90's.


Each decade saw the team of the decade put together a 3 great year run into the postseason except 2000 with... by far... the weakest statistical team .

Who do you suppose is the team of the 2010's decade ? 

Now how did each team do in the 3rd year of their run in the opening playoff game when they got the advantage of playing a weaker opponent ?

5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS each team won by 17 points or more with the average score being 29-9, even including the Pats in 2004.


Still want to fade the Seahawks  anyone??............................................................  



 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

Now how did each team do in the 3rd year of their run in the opening playoff game when they got the advantage of playing a weaker opponent ?

5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS each team won by 17 points or more with the average score being 29-9, even including the Pats in 2004.




Nice!

The Dude imbibes
 
 
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Still would like to hear your thoughts on the Hawks after lynch has been declared out. I understand you still like them but what is the angle with him out brotha? Very curious to hear. Thanks amigo
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