Posted:
#101
Zona ...... -3 (-115) 2cd half over Packers --- 8.05 units to win 7 units
IT'S NFL PLAYOFF TIME .....................2016
Posted:
#102
Well , that was aggravatting, finally caught some breaks and then Rodgers converts the 4th and 20 and the hail mary pass, geez lousie.
Could of had the push and 2cd half win at a time we needed it.
But Zona thankfully pulls out the win and the 2cd half cover, if Seahawks win today that pits my top 2 teams against each other and assures 1 gets to the SB.
KC has some oppurtunities but could not cash-in the Pats do what they always seem to do, don't beat themselves and play well in clutch situations.
KC had the 2 int's which could easily have been and then the back West goes out with injury and on the very first play the back-up catches a pass and fumbles, Pats recover.
If West did not go out and KC gets just 1 int could of been different story but the Pats do what they always seem to do.
I did cash 2 in game bets I did not have time to post, got 14.5 pts at one point with Pats up 20-6, was late getting it in, hit the submit button when the Pats kick-off was in the air but they gave it to me and cashed it thankfully.
This is why we ...stay the coarse ....with the info.
The way we do in game plays is getting a better line then game line and crossing key numbers.
With Zona up 7-6 just before half the line was Zona -5 making it -6 on game, not much difference from -7 game line so I waited till half.
Wasn't sure if maybe we'd get the same line and I would of pass on it, but at Zona -3 being up 1 makes -4 on game, now we pass the secondary key number of 6 and push on 4 so a much better line , I thought Zona was going to win the game at that point so I came with a large 2cd half play.
Posted:
#104
Lost 11 units on Zona game
Lost 10.9 units on KC game
Zona not getting a push was a killer, losing more 12 units because of it.
Hey, that's how it goes sometimes, we can't win 100% and at times will have some very rough moments but if we stay the coarse with the info we should be fine.
Our moment in the sun will come, we'll be on the right side and gets some breaks, those things tend to even out over time, let's hope it starts today ...................................
Posted:
#111
Lost 11 .1 units on Seahawks 1st half and game.
Won 4 units 2cd half and won 2 units 1st half Steelers.
Total lost 5.1 units.
Dreadful stretch of games, just dreadful, but that's the way it goes sometimes, we should have our moment in the sun before it's all over.
Did have another good comeback in-game plays. Made a 1st play at Seahawks +13.5, then again +14.5 and then +18.5 along with 2cd half play but still came out a loser overall.
Once again I got a in-game play in late after a kickoff with the ball in the air but this time they did not give it to me, in the end didn't matter, made the same bet at a better line later but even that didn't matter as both would have won anyway.
I would make in-game again this week, I can break it down better before the game starts.
Posted:
#112
POWER RATING I.............
My lines......
Pats -5.28 over Broncos.....with Manning
Pats -3.15 over Broncos ...with ave of Brock and Manning
Panthers -3.83 over Zona
POWER RATING II...............
My lines......
Broncos -.02 over Pats...... both teams in all games
Panthers -6.86 over Zona
BONUS POINTS METHOD........................
Pats -.89 over Broncos
Panthers -1.71 over Zona
PR I seems to do better this round then PR II, I'll have the breakdown later but to busy now.
No plays based on a 6 pt diff to closing line or a 4.5 pt diff in bonus pts.
Posted:
#113
COMMON DENOMINATORS OF PAST CHAMPIONS......
3 Teams have them, 1 does not, and that'd be the..............Broncos.............
Broncos negative in yards per point, just 7 of 74 teams since 1978 made the SB and 4 of those were surprise teams from the WC round.
The remaining 3 teams were no. 2 seeds, no no.1 seed has done it.
Broncos are negative in QBPR differential, another strong indicator of SB teams. Broncos rank 18th in the league.
Far majority of SB winners were in the top 5. Very few outside the top 10.
Panthers no.2, Zona no.4 , Pats no.6.
Broncos one of the weakest no.1 seeds to come along, the likelyhood this team can win the SB is slim to almost none.
Did Broncos improve in QBPR rating in playoffs VS Steelers ?
Broncos 74.4.......Steelers 94.3
Nope, they got crushed in the stat, it's rare for a team to win in a playoff game getting crushed by such an amount, this is a warning telling you to beware.
Yea ok, so Bronco players dropped some passes, how much would that affect the QBPR ?
Even if they played the Steelers even at 94.3, that is still not a good sign for this team.
The Steers defense gave-up a 90.9 on ave this season, so how meaningful would even a 94.3 be ? And how dreadful does a 74.4 look ?
Manning's ave was 67.9 this season.
Pats -3 (-120) over Broncos --- 7.2 units to win 6 units
Pats 1st half -2.5 --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
Posted:
#114
For the first time I decided to read between the line and look more into strength of schedule and consider it , there is some evidence that very weak schedules could impact teams, but remember it's not overwelming evidence just some evidence.
Overall strength of schedule produces a worse record with a 6 pt diff when included in the PR's.
Well, after that divisional round the jury is still out, the Panthers looked every bit the no.1 rated team PR II had them, and as one of the best teams ever in that PR.
SB winning Seahawks of 2013 rated 14.34 in PR II , this Panthers team rates higher then that team, 15.29, but was built off a much weaker schedule.
If we don't use strength of schedule the Panthers would have been the best team combined in both PR's.
If Panthers win and advance Not likely to consider strength of schedule again, but if Zona can pull off the SU win I will continue to look at little further and at least consider it when very weak.
PR II this round is 7-5 SU with 6 pt diff being just 1-3 ATS and 4-3-1 ATS in all remaining games with a lean. 5-6-1 overall.
Roughly a 50-50 proposition on my lines, with Panthers and Broncos both leans to my lines, likely at least 1 will lose.
Posted:
#116
POWER RATING I...............in conference finals since 2000
23-7 SU with my lines fav..........Panthers, Pats
19-10-1 ATS with a lean to the line............Panthers, Pats
9-2 ATS with a 6 pt diff...........no plays
Home team under 6 pt fav on my line with a lean to the dog ATS.....home team is 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS. ...... no play unless line goes to 4 then Zona.
My lines lean went...........................
2-0 ATS.......6 times
1-1 ATS ......8 times
0-2 ATS.......1 time
Only once finished with a losing record, as of now my line has a lean to Panthers and Pats.
Posted:
#117
BONUS POINTS METHOD......................in conference finals since 2008
My lines fav........10-4 SU......Panthers and Pats
A lean to the line ...........8-5-1 ATS................Zona, Broncos
4.5 pt diff ................4-3 ATS.............no plays
3.5 fav on my lines or under...............3-2 SU.
over 3.5 fav ......7-2 SU
no.1 ranked teams made the SB in 3 of 7 seasons.......Zona
no.1 ranked team in the conference made the SB 6 of 14.......Zona, Bengals
at least one of the no.1 ranked teams made the SB in 4 of 7 seasons.............Zona
My line leans......................
2-0 ATS 2 times
1-1 ATS ....4 times
0-2 ATS.......1 time
Road team fav in my lines 1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS.....Packers over Bears 2011.
Posted:
#118
POWER RATING I...........................
Road team fav on my lines with a lean on the road team ATS ...........4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS.
2000 Ravens -.8 over Raiders.......won 16-3
2002 Bucs -12.21 over Eagles..........won 27-10
2005 Steelers -4.92 over Denver...........won 34-17
2012 9ers -8.49 over Falcons.............won 28-24
Road teams rarely become favorites but when they do it seems to be well deserved...........a small sample size for sure but how many road teams would deserve to be the fav ?
Posted:
#119
Interesting stat, according to FO.....Zona is 31st in vairance....in other words they can play not so great then really great, huge diff in how they play week to week.
One thing we do know is they got the not so great game out of the way, does not automatically mean they'll play great but something to ponder.
Posted:
#120
REGRESSION METHOD..............................
This is an interesting method which compares teams score to their season long PR I ave per game and see's who playing better or worse then ave with the idea things have a regression to the mean.
For example, Pats won last week by 7 with a PR I of 7.83 or Pats played below their PRI with a ratio of scoring .89 pts per PR I.
Pats .89
Broncos 4.17 using ave of both QB's.
Diff of 3.28
Panthers .56
Zona .51
Diff of .04
Here we fade teams scoring the most over their PR I as things regress to the mean.
Since 2000 in conference finals........................
teams .6 or less .....9-5 ATS...............no plays
teams with a 3 pt diff...... 5-2 ATS.............Pats
teams scoring over 4 pts.......1-6 ATS...............Fade Broncos
In all games since 2000........................
1-1 ATS...........7 times
2-0 ATS ......4 times
1-01 ATS ..... 1 time
1-0 ATS ..... 1 time
0-2 ATS ...........1 time
Only 1 losing season since 2000
Posted:
#122
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS................................
Yes with a .....BUT.....defense by-itself does not.
There's no evidence over history that defense by-itself wins titles.
Many will look at Dilfer with the Ravens, ok let's do that........
In the Ravens playoff games here is what Dilfer and the great Ravens defense did.........................
QBPR
Dilfer --- 110.42
Ravens defense --- 50.11
Diff of 60.31
Dilfer --- 55.76
Defense --- 54.83
Diff of .93
Dilfer --- 83.1
defense - 26.35
Diff of 56.75
Dilfer and the great Ravens defense dominated the passing effieincy battle in 2 of 3 games, completely and throughly dominated it.
AVE PER PASS ATT
Dilfer --- 6.94
defense --- 3.14
diff of --- 3.8
Dilfer --- 4.25
defense -- 3.98
Diff of --- .27
Dilfer --- 8.6
defense --- 4.07
diff of --- 4.53
Once again Dilfer and the great Ravens defense dominated passing efficeincy in 2 of 3 playoff games and won every passing efficeincy battle each week.
Manning playoff game
QBPR
Manning --- 74.4
Denver defense 94.3
Diff of --- (-20)
AVE PER PASS
Manning --- 5.7
Defense --- 7.8
Diff of --- (-2.1)
And it's not just Dilfer, it's also be Brad Johnson and the 2002 Bucs, Wilson and the 2013 Seahawks, Jim Mcmahon and the 85 Bears.
Those teams did not win by defense alone despite what alot of people may believe.
They did it by out-playing opps in the most important area that leads to winning in the NFL , passing effineicy.
What's been proven-out over history is...........................Past their prime great players may bring alot of hope and promise but they rarely bring championship...................................
Posted:
#123
Pats -1 1st half (-120) over Broncos --- 2.4 units to win 2 units
Adding to the previous play with getting a better line
Will also add to the game play later.
If Pats fall behind I will make in-game plays , likely won't make a move untill behind more then 1 score . Would want to get +6 or more on game +7 or more would make another play.
1 or 2 units each play.
Posted:
#124
Great stuff as always claw. Your mention of variance with the cardinals is noted
How much did the week 17 game vs Seattle jack that variance? The cards laid down for that game.
Also I looked at how they did out east this year. They went east of the Mississippi river 5 times.
@Chicago 48-23 W
@Detroit 42-17 W
@Pittsburgh 13-25 L
@Cleveland 34-20 W
@Philadelphia 40-17 W
4 of those teams "suck" for lack of a better word. The Pitt game sticks out. Pitt's pass rush productivity while blitzing is ranked#30, without blitz#27.
Panthers while blitzing#2, without blitz#4.
Carson will get pressured, QB's under pressure=poor QBR, especially the statue type.
Arizona blitz's a league high 49.21% of the time, and imo this is no way to attack the Panthers. Cam is too big and athletic, he can evade them and there will be a lack of coverage. AZ ranks #12 while blitzing. AZ faced a mobile QB only twice this year(Russell Wilson). Gave up 32 points, and 36 points.
This is going to be the Cardinals toughest game of the year out east. Although they luck out playing the late game so there won't be much of a body clock issue.
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