is what im doing for takin so much on this pre-season game.,,maybe i can get lucky one time though rule #1- there is no maybe. crunch the numbers and go with what is shown.
rule # 2. there is no luck. see above.
this site has been the most usefull especially with baseball...
seriously, with baseball, starting pitching is huge especially history against lefties or righties
see also- runs scored in last 7 days, era, and what opponent has put up, runs wise agaist the FAVS wins. If the games are won by the fav say, 3-2, or 2-1 then that tells you somethin aka, the sluggin' may be suspect ect. this site gives you all the fact that once you learn how to read inbetween the lines you will reap huge. for example today the sox toronto game was way over priced for the sox- the books know with Beckett on the mound people are gonna go for it- I was able to find that Beckett has been losin latley bigtime. I recognized the trap and went with toronto. You have to disect this sight but the education on just the facts is there. It has football the same thing...
This is a terrible thread, littered with terrible advice.
First, the idea that only playing 1 or 2 games is somehow preferable to betting 4, 10, 15 or even 20 games is total garbage. The focus is on increasing net units, not maximizing your % of winners. Every time you have a positive expected value (+EV) on a game (which is generally in the 54%-58% range) you pull the trigger.
A long term winning percentage over 60% is actually too high. You’re just leaving money on the table.
Assuming you risk $110 to win $100, if you make only five bets on a given day, and win three of them, that's a winning percentage of 60% and a net profit for the day of $80 dollars. (You win $300 and lose 220 dollars.)
BUT, if I make 16 bets on that same day and win 9 of them….I only won 56.25% of my bets. HOWEVER, I made 62.5% more money than you did for the day - $130 dollars. (I won $900 and lost $770 dollars.)
Second, to the poster who plans on writing off losses on their taxes. Hate to burst your bubble, but the tax man has a big problem with taking a deduction for net gambling losses.
The basics: Flat betting.. no more than 2% of your bankroll on any given game. Unless you can routinely and accurately calculate your EV on a given game (which while theoretically possible, is in reality almost impossible to do) using a “1 star”, “5 star” or “30 dime winner” is quite honestly idiotic and counterproductive.
This is a terrible thread, littered with terrible advice.
First, the idea that only playing 1 or 2 games is somehow preferable to betting 4, 10, 15 or even 20 games is total garbage. The focus is on increasing net units, not maximizing your % of winners. Every time you have a positive expected value (+EV) on a game (which is generally in the 54%-58% range) you pull the trigger.
A long term winning percentage over 60% is actually too high. You’re just leaving money on the table.
Assuming you risk $110 to win $100, if you make only five bets on a given day, and win three of them, that's a winning percentage of 60% and a net profit for the day of $80 dollars. (You win $300 and lose 220 dollars.)
BUT, if I make 16 bets on that same day and win 9 of them….I only won 56.25% of my bets. HOWEVER, I made 62.5% more money than you did for the day - $130 dollars. (I won $900 and lost $770 dollars.)
Second, to the poster who plans on writing off losses on their taxes. Hate to burst your bubble, but the tax man has a big problem with taking a deduction for net gambling losses.
The basics: Flat betting.. no more than 2% of your bankroll on any given game. Unless you can routinely and accurately calculate your EV on a given game (which while theoretically possible, is in reality almost impossible to do) using a “1 star”, “5 star” or “30 dime winner” is quite honestly idiotic and counterproductive.
Look, 16 was an example to make the math easier to understand. It could be 5 games a week vs. 16 games a week. It could be 15 games a month vs. 40 games a month. Same concept. Spread that over the course of 3-4 months, and you're leaving a serious amount of money on the table by arbitrarily limiting yourself to a set number of games (per day, per week, whatever).
What part of 2% of your total bankroll is so hard to understand?Who in their right mind would be betting $100/gm with a bankroll of only $2,000???
They deserve to go broke...and they probably will.
Math is hard. I know.
paying you a visit every sunday.
Established in 1995,
... 7 more points for a push! NE is a loser for sure though 
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