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Early Observations & Discussion re Super Bowl Line

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Prospect
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Posted: #101
you steeler backers do remember where a huge percentage of the cardinal coaching staff comes from, right?

for the record - on the entire steeler depth chart, there is only one defensive back over six foot. but maybe that won't be factor.
 
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Posted: #102
[Quote: Originally Posted by ATG]
Arizona +7
 
Is Vegas being serious??? You have got to be kidding me.......Cardinals continue getting disrespected. I'll take Warner and his experience with the way he has that Cardinal offense running like a Rolex watch and SEVEN POINTS in the super bowl game any day/any time.
 
I dont want that number to drop so I will lock in an early position right now.....I can always buy out in next two weeks if I change my mind
 
Any thoughts on initial line movements fellas?
 
 Totally agreed ....do not change your mind, you are right on the money I think no.4 offense can hang around with no.1 deffense plus they are smoking hot right now. Adding the total OVER .....money to the bank
 
 
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Posted: #103
Haven't posted in an eternity.  Hi 3rd, sorry bout your colts(they cost me).  I see this game played out in the efficiency or lack thereof in the defensive scheme.  Can AZ get to Rothlesberger(I do not think so) and stop the run well(I do not think so).  Conversely you have Pitt D needing to absolutely refuse to let Fitz and potentially Anquan beat them with double coverage and some pressure on the QB.  AZ will attempt to run and fail.Warner is insane vs the blitz so I don't think you'll see much of that.  I predict that Warner/AZ will get 2-3 tds and 1-2 fg but most of their scoring comes from when theyre behind.  Pitt forces a couple of key turnovers and plays power football while ahead.  AZ has a chance to backdoor but falls short.
All this falls apart if Wisenhunt has that D figured out though.
Final score 37-23 Pitt.  Already locked in at -6.  BOL to all of you.
 
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Posted: #104
Everyone was saying the same thing about the Ravens at +5.5 and look what happened.  Pittsburgh is for real. AZ has a great offense and their D has stepped up but frankly they have not seen a D like Pittsburgh's all season long.  Pittsburgh isn't going to give Fitzgerald a free release and Pittsburgh won't turn the ball over 5 times like Delhomme and the Panthers did. 
 
Take the points if you may.  I do have to say that getting 7 in the Super Bowl is pretty sweet, but I see Pittsburgh coming out big in this game.
 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by ICAPSports:



yep 9-7 in the NFC west is far more impressive.....where do you stupid motherfuckers come from...seriously

 I come from my penis right on your moms face tough guy.

 
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Posted: #106
I believe the late money goes on Pitt and you'll be able to get +7.5
I don't think it's a matter of love, but more 7th time vs 1st time in the big game.
 
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Posted: #107
Arizona puts up 32 on the # 3 Defense, they will put up 28 on Pitt, Pitt will put up 17 and Az will lock up a super bowl
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by JtotheF:



sure - but in the last regular season game for the steelers this year, against a similar make receiver (andre johnson) they gave up 10 receptions for 112 yards (granted no td's). but here they face two andre johnsons.


Most of that came in garbage time when the Steelers were leading 35-3. Before that he was shutdown to the tune for 5 catches for 56 yards.


 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by JtotheF:



sure - but in the last regular season game for the steelers this year, against a similar make receiver (andre johnson) they gave up 10 receptions for 112 yards (granted no td's). but here they face two andre johnsons.


Pittsburgh D this season against those other similar big tall #1 receivers:

Matt Jones: 2 catches for 25 yards, 0 TD

Plaxico Burress: 3 catches for 25 yards, 0 TD

Vincent Jackson: 2 catches for 25 yards, 0 TD

Randy Moss: 4 catches for 45 yards, 0 TD

Terrell Owens: 3 catches, 32 yards, 1 TD
Roy Williams: 2 catches, 19 yards, 0 TD

Vincent Jackson (playoff game): 2 catches for 49 yards, 1 TD


, it's not like they've shut those guys down or anything.............
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Man I Feel Smart for Now ....
 
Posted: 1/17/2009 9:42:04 PM
Super Bowl Wager
 
AFC -3 +100  5 Dimes(Pittsburgh IMO)
10 Units to Win 10 Units

I feel even smarter.  Sunday AM I put in 5 units on Pitt to win SB at +105.  Also put 1 unit on Zona to win the SB at +600.  Guess I win either way at this point.

 
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Posted: #111
i think the public will be on zona + 7 and i will wait to see what the line does. this will be 70/30 on zona maybe more???? i mean look at the last few games they have been 10point underdogs on the road at carolina and carolina was one of the favs to win the superbowl and then to be a dog at home in the championship game. i think vegas is begging us to take the points.......leaning towards pitt -6.5 (will buy the hook if i have too) gl to all kappindahoop
 
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Posted: #112
train - you can disagree w/ andarmac, but you can't dispute his abilities - he is proven to be very good (no he missed the Eagles, but c'mon we all lose some) over the long haul and he provides excellent insight.
 
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Posted: #113
but andy, don't lump Matt Jones and that Jag O in with those receivers



 
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Posted: #114
Up until the point when Philly put 21 straight against Ariz, I thought Ari looks pretty scary and just might win it all.  But after seeing their def do that, hard for me to see Ari at his pt.  I'll give them credit for that last drive but that's against Philly D which they have already shredded apart 1st half.
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Mark_Anthony:

I'm doing a heavy bet on Pitt moneyline.  Fuck it last bet of season.

 

I would not recommend this.    Too costly if zona wins straight up. 

 
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Posted: #116
OK, here goes:  Pittsburgh has played toughest schedule this year by far.  Arizona only won 9 games in regular season and got BLOWN out in couple games too.  Pittsburgh is a team that will not get blown out.  Most superbowls (like someone posted above) are not that close.  Vegas is suckering all ya'll Zona backers in at +7 (oh, look how hot they are right now)...I cant wait till Steelers win easily by double digits here
 
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Posted: #117
Arizona will get crushed like they did in the last 3 games....
 
Oh yeah! They won the last 3 as a dog, with no chance of winning!
 
Remember how much respect the Giants got last year between the championship game and the Super Bowl?
 
Same old story, same old song and dance!
 
Arizona +7 - A Gift wrapped line.
 
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Posted: #118

Quote Originally Posted by woody7777:

OK, here goes:  Pittsburgh has played toughest schedule this year by far.  Arizona only won 9 games in regular season and got BLOWN out in couple games too.  Pittsburgh is a team that will not get blown out.  Most superbowls (like someone posted above) are not that close.  Vegas is suckering all ya'll Zona backers in at +7 (oh, look how hot they are right now)...I cant wait till Steelers win easily by double digits here

That's my 1st thought as well when I saw Pitt -7 pts. Vegas is not giving Zona any respect. I was guessing the line would be Pitt -5 or -5.5. Early lean is on Pitt rolling in the SB with Troy getting a Pick-6.

 
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Posted: #119

Quote Originally Posted by woody7777:

OK, here goes:  Pittsburgh has played toughest schedule this year by far.  Arizona only won 9 games in regular season and got BLOWN out in couple games too.  Pittsburgh is a team that will not get blown out.  Most superbowls (like someone posted above) are not that close.  Vegas is suckering all ya'll Zona backers in at +7 (oh, look how hot they are right now)...I cant wait till Steelers win easily by double digits here

When the public keeps comparing everything to what happened during the regular season, this is why the line opens were it does.

This is not the regular season! This is the Super Bowl. Anyone that has been watching the playoffs should know that the regular season should be ignored.

Forget everything that happened during regular season play. Take a good look at the playoff games, they make a decision on the game.

Arizona might not win, but their chances of covering 7 is better than Pittsburgh.

If Pitt wins it will be by 3 or 7 for a push.

If Arizona wins it will be by 1-7 points.

Either way, at -7/+7  AZ covers or the game will push!

 
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Posted: #120
hey guys some good posts, as much as i don't like the steelers i think the story of the superbowl will be willie parker having a huge day... i have to give this team credit...   think steelers can put up a lot of points on the cards... a few things tho, the steelers have not played a team quite like the cards,, with their offense, I know the steelers D is great, but playing begals, browns, ravens twice and tennessee, redskins, jags once these are completely different teams than zona, .. the steelers played a countless number of games in bad weather , mostly at home, which i think vastly helped inflate their defensive numbers... this will be only the 2 time this year where the steelers play down south, in typically nice weather.. ... the most similar team to the cards that the steelers played this year was the colts,, who beat tehe my  steelers on the road 24-20... all that being said my only possible play right now would be to pound the over, as i think the total will only go up
 
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Posted: #121
Looks like there's more to this Boldin story. Reports say he left without celebrating.

Link.
 
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Posted: #122
Does anyone realize that Coach Ken W. was the O-coordinator in Pittsburgh before he came to Arizona. Cam Cameron, the O-coordinator in Baltimore, was head coach in Miami and beat them twice this year.
 
Also just a small trivia fact since everyone on here is comparing the past to what is going on right now:
Last season when the NFC West played the AFC North, Arizona was the only team in the NFC West to beat Pittsburgh.
 
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Posted: #123
Some pretty interesting points in this thread.
 
One thing to look at......Bolden and Fitzgerald will get some touches but REMEMBER Pittsburg is probably the best tackling team in the NFL.  This means YAC (yards after catch) will be minimal.
ADD99 is a solid NFL capper.  No one gets all the games correct.
 
My initial thought when the line first came out was WOW +7, no respect but again, this is the NFL and that's exactly what Vegas wants you to think....
 
Good debate....we only have 2 weeks to the game..
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

THIS is the weak they get crushed.


Andy has been saying this for 3 weeks...I can just see Andy's post in week 1 next year...

"Ok guys, really, this will be the week AZ get's crushed"

 

About the line, they have to set it that high because Pitt is such a public team.  Which means that AZ +7 is great value...

AZ +7 for me...

 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by FLY62:

ALL AMERICA WHO PLAYS TEASERS WILL TAKE PITT STRAIGHT UP AND THINK THEIR SAFE.  THEY LOSE STRAIGHT UP BUY A FG. 

this is what my girlfriend said last night after watching both games with me. she actually picked all 4 winners SU last wknd and is 5-2 over her last 7. she doesn't know more than the names of the teams, she now knows names a little. i have been asking her about college basketball also, not so great there, but when she is on, she is on, like knowing the pts spread before i tell her what it is! crazy shit. i have in times of my life used people like this to win until they hit a low streak. I have seen the majority of their first 20 bets cash. sorta a beginners luck deal. she split yesterday by the way, losing on BALT. she liked the colors!

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