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*** Best Play of the Month *** Let's Start the Month off with a Bang!

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by robbypants:

Just out of curiosity, are a Cowboy's fan?


Nope, Patriots
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Surprised to see you on Pittsburgh. Everywhere I look I see people on the Steelers so far. Sometimes there is something to that angle and sometimes there is not. For example many people are on Dallas, but that will not impact the game IMO because of the fact the Cowboys are playing for their season essentially against an overrated team. In other words the outside perception by fans and media is that the Cowboys are fuckups and stink. The perception of them is NOT greater than what they are, actually they are underrated.

However the perception of Pittsburgh has changed dramatically in two short weeks with wins over a shit Bengals team and over a Redskins team that dropped 10 passes and couldn't stop anyone if they tried. Two weeks ago the perception of the Steelers were they are an old, banged up team with a defense that sucked on the road. Now suddenly in the mainstream the Steelers are back when in reality they probably aren't. That is perception. I disagree completely that the Giants don't care about this game. They've got a hot, well-publicized team coming into their house in the late game national TV window. It's not like they are hosting Jacksonville at 1:00. Also working in the Giants favor is they played like crap last week. Good teams don't play like shit two weeks in a row. I think Eli and his receivers have a rebound game and torch a defense that still stinks despite the perception. Next week is the time to fade the Giants.

Just my .02. GL


I too thought PITT was a bad team even when they beat the Bengals who were playin with their 3rd string center. I still like the spot there in here though and Rothlisburger as a dog is always a good play. NY doesn't play too well as home favorites either
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by wrapcc:

BOL.  I think the Dallas game depends on how Romo plays.  ATL will close the door with any turn overs.  ALT wins and covers at home--The Cowboys are not consistent enough.  Eli is for real--Yes DAL held them to 11 first downs but when they are focused like they were against SF---place your money on NYG and ATL this week.


Post your tickets
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:

What's this all about?

Right now I see some CHICAGO -3 -130

At this number the book is telling us that Bears are about 1/2 a point better than the Titans on a neutral field. Huh! What's up?



Take off 3 points for home field and Bears would be -6.5 on a neutral field and 9.5 if at CHI. You have it backwards. Either way, terrible spot here for the Bears
 
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Posted: #105
Showed you guys this last week with my play of the year but here it is popping up again.

Home teams going into their bye week with a spread of 0 to -6 this year are 0-9 ATS and 15-44 (25.4%) ATS the past 14 years.

Panthers have a great shot to win SU here. They are a very desperate team going against a team that will be looking forward to their 2 week vacation at home. I also think that Cam Newton must not like all the comparisons RG3 has been getting to him and all the love and hype he's getting.

Was going to play the Titans and Ravens as well but i'm gonna choose to remain selective here. Will be playing either the Panthers ATS or in a teaser with the Cowboys or Steelers for my final play of the weekend.
 
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Posted: #106
LC, already on CAR, DAL, PIT & TEN. & small money line parlay GL to everyone.




 
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Posted: #107
[Quote: Originally Posted by tonyrome]
I'm pretty sure he was referring to Bobafett, not you LC.

Bobafett is puttin his $ on Dallas....so i WILL be enjoying the game....
 
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Posted: #108
League, can I please get your opinion on Denver @ Cincy. Is this a letdown spot for Denver? I know the Bengals offense keeps getting better but I still don't think they can go shot for shot with Peyton plus Denver's defense is better than Cincy.. Denver take this one? 
 
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Posted: #109
LC, you are a Patriots fan, lol, that explains a lot.


I don't want to talk about the Steeler pick anymore, I think that will be a close game, so taking points may prove smart.

I really want to see how this Dallas game turns out, but I think I am tailing you there, thanks!

 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



I too thought PITT was a bad team even when they beat the Bengals who were playin with their 3rd string center. I still like the spot there in here though and Rothlisburger as a dog is always a good play. NY doesn't play too well as home favorites either


I thought that too but you have to go back to the end of the 2008 season to find the last time Roethlisberger was consistently good as a dog. Since that time he is 1-6 ATS as a dog away from home with every loss being by at least 6 points and four of the six coming by double digits. Average losing margin = 13.3 points per game. Perception vs reality.

The Giants stink as home favs largely because of the reason the nearly blew the Cowboys game. This team gets complacent and take their foot off the gas quite often. The thing is as home favs against good teams (favs of -4.5 or less) since their first Super Bowl win they actually have a winning ATS record. The smaller the home fav you are the better the team you're playing and less likely you are to take your foot off the gas pedal. As home favs of -5 or more is where the Giants stink at 9-15-1 ATS. Perception vs reality again.
 
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Posted: #111
LC, I've seen you mention that Chicago has a "huge" division lead in this thread a few different times, but since when is a 1 game lead a "huge" division lead?  Chicago is technically only 1 game up on Green Bay since Green Bay beat Chicago and holds the tie breaker as of now.  Why would any team with a 1 game lead over a team that went 15-1 in the regular season last year feel satisifed enough to relax and possibly cost themselves a game that should be a sure win?
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



I thought that too but you have to go back to the end of the 2008 season to find the last time Roethlisberger was consistently good as a dog. Since that time he is 1-6 ATS as a dog away from home with every loss being by at least 6 points and four of the six coming by double digits. Average losing margin = 13.3 points per game. Perception vs reality.

The Giants stink as home favs largely because of the reason the nearly blew the Cowboys game. This team gets complacent and take their foot off the gas quite often. The thing is as home favs against good teams (favs of -4.5 or less) since their first Super Bowl win they actually have a winning ATS record. The smaller the home fav you are the better the team you're playing and less likely you are to take your foot off the gas pedal. As home favs of -5 or more is where the Giants stink at 9-15-1 ATS. Perception vs reality again.


Great post...  



however, I'm still confident Big Ben can hold this game and control the clock when up by a possession.  Love Eli on the road a lot more then @ home.  Least turnovers win this game  -  I think Eli will force more then Big Ben.
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



layin off Thursday's game also I like the Bills ATS. Teams that win in blowout fashion before the bye get to listen to how good they are all vacation and get complacent when they get back. I won't be playin the Bills but I think they cover


Actually teams going into the BYE that won their game by more than 14 points are ATS 18-12-1 in their next game since 2012
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



I thought that too but you have to go back to the end of the 2008 season to find the last time Roethlisberger was consistently good as a dog. Since that time he is 1-6 ATS as a dog away from home with every loss being by at least 6 points and four of the six coming by double digits. Average losing margin = 13.3 points per game. Perception vs reality.

The Giants stink as home favs largely because of the reason the nearly blew the Cowboys game. This team gets complacent and take their foot off the gas quite often. The thing is as home favs against good teams (favs of -4.5 or less) since their first Super Bowl win they actually have a winning ATS record. The smaller the home fav you are the better the team you're playing and less likely you are to take your foot off the gas pedal. As home favs of -5 or more is where the Giants stink at 9-15-1 ATS. Perception vs reality again.


Great points - thanks!
 
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Posted: #115
All you guys with the questioning and the counter arguments are just plain dumb.  If you dont like his picks dont play them.  But this guy has been the best capper on the site this season without a doubt.  When he speaks you should all listen.  Not argue.  Morons.....  Its nice to be humble.   I like to think I know a ton on the NFL, but this guys has brought my eyes open to many trends and angles that Ive never been aware of.  Be humble my friends and your pockets get bigger, trust me.
 
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Posted: #116
Steelers outright............take the ML, points wont be needed!
 
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Posted: #117
BOL
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by bobafett:

Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:


I'm pretty sure he was referring to Bobafett, not you LC.

Bobafett is puttin his $ on Dallas....so i WILL be enjoying the game....



 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by Junior316:

League, can I please get your opinion on Denver @ Cincy. Is this a letdown spot for Denver? I know the Bengals offense keeps getting better but I still don't think they can go shot for shot with Peyton plus Denver's defense is better than Cincy.. Denver take this one? 


Not a letdown but Denver will be a little overvalued for weeks to come. There defense is definitely not better than Cincy's. John Fox had 2 weeks to prepare for a Saints offense that is one dimensional. It is no surprise they shut them down. Let's not forget how shaky there defense was prior to facing the Saints.

Always be weary of a team that wins by more than there supposed to or in upset fashion on primetime, everyone remembers it for a while and that team becomes overvalued for a while.

Remember when the KC Cheifs beat the 15-0 Packers? The Chiefs are horrible yet everyone remembers there "defense" from that game and how it can keep them in games. That game was a mirage, but it led them to being overvalued the beginning 8 games of this season and they are now what 1-6? You get my point.
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



I thought that too but you have to go back to the end of the 2008 season to find the last time Roethlisberger was consistently good as a dog. Since that time he is 1-6 ATS as a dog away from home with every loss being by at least 6 points and four of the six coming by double digits. Average losing margin = 13.3 points per game. Perception vs reality.

The Giants stink as home favs largely because of the reason the nearly blew the Cowboys game. This team gets complacent and take their foot off the gas quite often. The thing is as home favs against good teams (favs of -4.5 or less) since their first Super Bowl win they actually have a winning ATS record. The smaller the home fav you are the better the team you're playing and less likely you are to take your foot off the gas pedal. As home favs of -5 or more is where the Giants stink at 9-15-1 ATS. Perception vs reality again.


Good points seems like your dead on with those stats. Regardless, I think PITT is a great play here. It seems everyone has forgotten how bad the Giants secondary is thanks to their offense and Dline masking those problems. The Steelers control drives and time of possession better than anyone with short dink and dunk passes. This will work against the Giants defense.

Another thing I was looking at was that the Steelers are #1 in time of possession in the 1H controlling the ball for 57.7% of the time whereas Eli Manning hasn't lost a 4Q in 19 straight games. Makes for pretty solid reasoning for a Steelers 1H bet if you ask me.

My opinion is that the Giants are gonna rack up a few losses in the next 4-5 games and it starts this Sunday
 
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Posted: #121
BOL
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

LC, I've seen you mention that Chicago has a "huge" division lead in this thread a few different times, but since when is a 1 game lead a "huge" division lead?  Chicago is technically only 1 game up on Green Bay since Green Bay beat Chicago and holds the tie breaker as of now.  Why would any team with a 1 game lead over a team that went 15-1 in the regular season last year feel satisifed enough to relax and possibly cost themselves a game that should be a sure win?


It's not that they see there #1 in the division and decide to relax for the game. It's only human nature to get complacent and not put forth 110% effort every game. The NFL is a very physical grueling and long 16 game season. Injuries and distractions take place on teams and if the game isn't a big game, you'll see offensive lineman not blocking to their full potential, WR not running their routes as hard etc etc. Again it's only human nature. If the Bears were playing the Packers this weekend however, I don't care how many injuries or distractions players have, they will give it their 110%
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:



Actually teams going into the BYE that won their game by more than 14 points are ATS 18-12-1 in their next game since 2012


Correct but I was trying to get at the point that the Texans beat the #2 team in the AFC in blowout fashion before their bye. They have 2 weeks now to hear about how good they are and boast about their win. The stat you provided calls for games before the bye that aren't as meaningful as the one the Texans just had
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

All you guys with the questioning and the counter arguments are just plain dumb.  If you dont like his picks dont play them.  But this guy has been the best capper on the site this season without a doubt.  When he speaks you should all listen.  Not argue.  Morons.....  Its nice to be humble.   I like to think I know a ton on the NFL, but this guys has brought my eyes open to many trends and angles that Ive never been aware of.  Be humble my friends and your pockets get bigger, trust me.


I don't mind discussion it's all good. In the end we're all here to beat the books not beat each other
 
 
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Posted: #125
LC can you post the summary of your picks todate for the coming week please? Bol. 
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