Congrats to anyone who stuck with the unpopular home dogs last night. I thought it was going to be a rough night, but Portland, Indiana and Memphis went 2-1 SU.
One play for tonight:
Magic +3.5
This is a tough spot for Cleveland. They might be rested, but they're coming home from a West Coast swing and in the Lebron era, they've typically struggled on their first game back from a West Coast road trip. When the Cavs are distracted, they don't crash the boards the way they normally can, and that negates their one clear advantage over Orlando. The Magic are well-rested as well, only one of their starters played over 30 minutes last night (Bogans played 32). I expect big things from Jammer Nelson in this game.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 7-6
Congrats to anyone who stuck with the unpopular home dogs last night. I thought it was going to be a rough night, but Portland, Indiana and Memphis went 2-1 SU.
One play for tonight:
Magic +3.5
This is a tough spot for Cleveland. They might be rested, but they're coming home from a West Coast swing and in the Lebron era, they've typically struggled on their first game back from a West Coast road trip. When the Cavs are distracted, they don't crash the boards the way they normally can, and that negates their one clear advantage over Orlando. The Magic are well-rested as well, only one of their starters played over 30 minutes last night (Bogans played 32). I expect big things from Jammer Nelson in this game.
I'll be back later with my trends, a breakdown of the rest of the games and maybe another play or two. I think there's a lot of value out there tonight.
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I'll be back later with my trends, a breakdown of the rest of the games and maybe another play or two. I think there's a lot of value out there tonight.
first game home is a nice fade after a long trip...would have liked 4.5 or 5. if you take the 3.5, might as well take the ML with it
GSW getting 2.5 from Det is nice also. old legs going to get run out of the gym...B2B both on the road and Det looked old and tired last night
memp/milw over 205.5 looks ok also. although MILW has been scoring less so far this year, memphis allows teams to run and shoot at will
may have to look at the BUllets also. not sure who they are to lay 6 unless its a reaction to the Celtics W over indy last night
I'm considering the Magic ML as well. I agree with you on the Bullets, they have no business laying more than a basket to anyone right now. The way the Pacers are playing in the 2nd Half these days, I think the Pacers 1st Half line might be the way to go.
I have no interest right now in playing the Bucks' sides or totals. That team will live and die with the jumper all year. It's really just a guessing game with them.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
first game home is a nice fade after a long trip...would have liked 4.5 or 5. if you take the 3.5, might as well take the ML with it
GSW getting 2.5 from Det is nice also. old legs going to get run out of the gym...B2B both on the road and Det looked old and tired last night
memp/milw over 205.5 looks ok also. although MILW has been scoring less so far this year, memphis allows teams to run and shoot at will
may have to look at the BUllets also. not sure who they are to lay 6 unless its a reaction to the Celtics W over indy last night
I'm considering the Magic ML as well. I agree with you on the Bullets, they have no business laying more than a basket to anyone right now. The way the Pacers are playing in the 2nd Half these days, I think the Pacers 1st Half line might be the way to go.
I have no interest right now in playing the Bucks' sides or totals. That team will live and die with the jumper all year. It's really just a guessing game with them.
Trend #1:take the lowest Under and the highest Over YTD: 17-11 (10-4 on Unders, 7-7 on Overs) Tonight: Nets/Celtics Under; Blazers/Nuggets Over
Trend #2: fade popular public picks (80% or above at sportsbook.com) YTD: 18-8 Tonight: TBD
Trend #3:follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above YTD: 11-4 Tonight: TBD
Trend #4:fade teams playing their first home game after 3 or more consecutive road games YTD: 3-3 Tonight: Magic
Trend #5:take the 1st Quarter line for home teams with 2 or more days rest than their opponent YTD: 3-1 Tonight: Timberwolves 1st Q; Hawks 1st Q; Wizards 1st Q; Toronto 1st Q; Milwaukee 1st Q; Warriors 1st Q; Clippers 1st Q
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Trend tracking
Trend #1:take the lowest Under and the highest Over YTD: 17-11 (10-4 on Unders, 7-7 on Overs) Tonight: Nets/Celtics Under; Blazers/Nuggets Over
Trend #2: fade popular public picks (80% or above at sportsbook.com) YTD: 18-8 Tonight: TBD
Trend #3:follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above YTD: 11-4 Tonight: TBD
Trend #4:fade teams playing their first home game after 3 or more consecutive road games YTD: 3-3 Tonight: Magic
Trend #5:take the 1st Quarter line for home teams with 2 or more days rest than their opponent YTD: 3-1 Tonight: Timberwolves 1st Q; Hawks 1st Q; Wizards 1st Q; Toronto 1st Q; Milwaukee 1st Q; Warriors 1st Q; Clippers 1st Q
The "dog" NJN/BOS UNDER I will lay off b/c it "seems" sooo low with the Celts at home with a wild crowd.
What does that tell you Vegas expects to happen tonight? Blowout city. Lots of playing time for Scott Pollard and Tony Allen.
By the way, of the 8 times this year, according to my numbers, that fading the Sportsbook consensus didn't work... how many do you think involved the Celtics? I'd reckon at least four or five of the eight.
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Quote Originally Posted by Leib:
The "dog" NJN/BOS UNDER I will lay off b/c it "seems" sooo low with the Celts at home with a wild crowd.
What does that tell you Vegas expects to happen tonight? Blowout city. Lots of playing time for Scott Pollard and Tony Allen.
By the way, of the 8 times this year, according to my numbers, that fading the Sportsbook consensus didn't work... how many do you think involved the Celtics? I'd reckon at least four or five of the eight.
Pacers +6 at Bullets. 6 points? Really? The funny thing is, if the line was 4 or 5, I'd be all over the Pacers plus the points. But 6? Something about that number 6 worries me. The problem is, the Pacers aren't a good enough rebounding team to really take clear advantage of the Wizards' weaknesses. I'm starting to think Indiana is going to be similar to Milwaukee this year, not a smart bet either way because they're going to live-and-die with the jumpers.
Bobcats +5 at Hawks. I like the way Charlotte is rebounding the ball. Most of that is Okafor of course, but I think Richardson and Wallace are quality rebounders as well for swingmen. Something is compelling me to take the points here.
Nets +11 at Celtics. If you're betting against the Celtics right now, then you're the worst type of gambler, the "I'm gonna be a hero" type of gambler. And I hate you.
Lakers +7 at Rockets. Paging Hustle Man. What's the word tonight?
Pistons -2.5 at Warriors. This could be a good chance for the Warriors to finally pick up that first win. The Pistons are in the classic 3-in-4 B2B situation. But the Warriors might be the worst defensive team in the league right now.
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Some other games of interest:
Pacers +6 at Bullets. 6 points? Really? The funny thing is, if the line was 4 or 5, I'd be all over the Pacers plus the points. But 6? Something about that number 6 worries me. The problem is, the Pacers aren't a good enough rebounding team to really take clear advantage of the Wizards' weaknesses. I'm starting to think Indiana is going to be similar to Milwaukee this year, not a smart bet either way because they're going to live-and-die with the jumpers.
Bobcats +5 at Hawks. I like the way Charlotte is rebounding the ball. Most of that is Okafor of course, but I think Richardson and Wallace are quality rebounders as well for swingmen. Something is compelling me to take the points here.
Nets +11 at Celtics. If you're betting against the Celtics right now, then you're the worst type of gambler, the "I'm gonna be a hero" type of gambler. And I hate you.
Lakers +7 at Rockets. Paging Hustle Man. What's the word tonight?
Pistons -2.5 at Warriors. This could be a good chance for the Warriors to finally pick up that first win. The Pistons are in the classic 3-in-4 B2B situation. But the Warriors might be the worst defensive team in the league right now.
re: trend 2 - Utah, NO, Det, LAC all at 80% or above. Det also fits trend 3
I like to wait until about an hour before tip-off before really counting it. You know how it goes, those public percentages tend to even out slightly as the day goes on.
I haven't seen any line movement in Detroit/Golden State. According to my numbers, it opened at 2.5. What are you seeing it as now?
I was thinking about grabbing that Lakers ML on Matchbook since they've got the in-game tonight. Might be a good opportunity to grab plus points either way if the Lakers can take an early lead. It's being offered at +142 right now though, which must be some kind of joke, I'll wait for that to rise.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
re: trend 2 - Utah, NO, Det, LAC all at 80% or above. Det also fits trend 3
I like to wait until about an hour before tip-off before really counting it. You know how it goes, those public percentages tend to even out slightly as the day goes on.
I haven't seen any line movement in Detroit/Golden State. According to my numbers, it opened at 2.5. What are you seeing it as now?
I was thinking about grabbing that Lakers ML on Matchbook since they've got the in-game tonight. Might be a good opportunity to grab plus points either way if the Lakers can take an early lead. It's being offered at +142 right now though, which must be some kind of joke, I'll wait for that to rise.
like the magic wildcat. Howard should rip Z a new butthole. there is a mismatch at every position, except of course, lebron.. jameer nelson's strength and quickness should make the matchup with gibson look like an older brother/younger brother ordeal
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like the magic wildcat. Howard should rip Z a new butthole. there is a mismatch at every position, except of course, lebron.. jameer nelson's strength and quickness should make the matchup with gibson look like an older brother/younger brother ordeal
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