Vegas, you fu**ed with the wrong capper at the wrong time. Now I bleed you dry. NETS@KNICKS!

Question

Awww Vegas, ya done went and stepped in shi* this time! You think I folded up shop? You think I quit gambling? So you have my money from the Piston game on a miracle back door. Well it's coming back tonight! Every penny! And you will deliver it....on your knees.

Guys, I read EVERY post in the other thread and I thank everyone from across the world as well as the all threads of support

(and yes, how well the Belgians spoke English that well shocked the hell out of me too!). Too many posters names to mention here but I know who you are!

For those who think I care about the bashing, I DO NOT as Melos insinuated. BASH ON!

BB you know me well as you will see the pick below. And also, when a dead relative gives you a pick, you let NOTHING stop you from unloading on it! NOTHING! (I've secretly always wanted such a thing to happen to me and I know it won't. But man, did you get the easiest game of the year along with the dream or what! What a pick from the great beyond!)

I took a break (one day

) for one reason, the loss stung and I put a lot of work into that write-up that was nearly 25 posts long only to have it lose. WHO the hell needs someone to give them losers, no matter how close!??? And the research that went into it

.

But this game, my locals, drew me back in. Also, I saw LC and Gamble left and those were two great losses. I'm here right now and I will cap this one, just like the days of old!

All the bullshi* that went down last game has me stewing to the point where there is no room for error in this cap. I capped two games in the Cavs and Pistons and was outside of the spread by 2 and 1. I said it was a poor line set by Vegas in that Piston game and it was and they needed a backdoor miracle to beat us.

I don't want to hear that they were trailing the whole game and I was the one that was lucky. That is patently FALSE. They won the first, third and fourth quarters and got blown out in the second. It was one bad quarter that did in that spread. That is why I checked in at the half and said we have Mt. Everest to climb. The win was never really in doubt regardless of what you think given what was at stake for the Pistons (a lot more than you think or want to believe). But to make up 15 points (down 9 + 6 of spread) in two quarters is a tall order with the Detroit Pistons. And even at that, Kyle Singler has to...do I even have to go over it again? No. Onto the next one. A loss is a loss and now we will get a win.

The problem now is Vegas has pissed me off and lo and behold my locals are on deck.

That is VERY bad for Vegas and REALLY good for us.

This will be a winner.

My IDEAL conditions for a game are a spread of < = 2 which is a push line so I only need to cap a win. We are very close to that here so I will cap this game.

There are several forces beyond the court of play that will drive the Knicks to victory.

You have to understand that when you tap into the internal psychology of a team, through a lifetime of studying, research and exposure, it doesn't matter if Hakeem, MJ, Magic, Larry and LBJ are on the other side of the ball, your team will take it home when you see it, or will fall in the best of spots when you see it.

I see it here tonight. The Knicks will win and the spread is too small to matter.

What are the 'forces' I speak of?

There are several. Shall we go over them? We shall.

scalabrine · Answer

Awww Vegas, ya done went and stepped in shi* this time! You think I folded up shop? You think I quit gambling? So you have my money from the Piston game on a miracle back door. Well it's coming back tonight! Every penny! And you will deliver it....on your knees.

Guys, I read EVERY post in the other thread and I thank everyone from across the world as well as the all threads of support

(and yes, how well the Belgians spoke English that well shocked the hell out of me too!). Too many posters names to mention here but I know who you are!

For those who think I care about the bashing, I DO NOT as Melos insinuated. BASH ON!

BB you know me well as you will see the pick below. And also, when a dead relative gives you a pick, you let NOTHING stop you from unloading on it! NOTHING! (I've secretly always wanted such a thing to happen to me and I know it won't. But man, did you get the easiest game of the year along with the dream or what! What a pick from the great beyond!)

I took a break (one day

) for one reason, the loss stung and I put a lot of work into that write-up that was nearly 25 posts long only to have it lose. WHO the hell needs someone to give them losers, no matter how close!??? And the research that went into it

.

But this game, my locals, drew me back in. Also, I saw LC and Gamble left and those were two great losses. I'm here right now and I will cap this one, just like the days of old!

All the bullshi* that went down last game has me stewing to the point where there is no room for error in this cap. I capped two games in the Cavs and Pistons and was outside of the spread by 2 and 1. I said it was a poor line set by Vegas in that Piston game and it was and they needed a backdoor miracle to beat us.

I don't want to hear that they were trailing the whole game and I was the one that was lucky. That is patently FALSE. They won the first, third and fourth quarters and got blown out in the second. It was one bad quarter that did in that spread. That is why I checked in at the half and said we have Mt. Everest to climb. The win was never really in doubt regardless of what you think given what was at stake for the Pistons (a lot more than you think or want to believe). But to make up 15 points (down 9 + 6 of spread) in two quarters is a tall order with the Detroit Pistons. And even at that, Kyle Singler has to...do I even have to go over it again? No. Onto the next one. A loss is a loss and now we will get a win.

The problem now is Vegas has pissed me off and lo and behold my locals are on deck.

That is VERY bad for Vegas and REALLY good for us.

This will be a winner.

My IDEAL conditions for a game are a spread of < = 2 which is a push line so I only need to cap a win. We are very close to that here so I will cap this game.

There are several forces beyond the court of play that will drive the Knicks to victory.

You have to understand that when you tap into the internal psychology of a team, through a lifetime of studying, research and exposure, it doesn't matter if Hakeem, MJ, Magic, Larry and LBJ are on the other side of the ball, your team will take it home when you see it, or will fall in the best of spots when you see it.

I see it here tonight. The Knicks will win and the spread is too small to matter.

What are the 'forces' I speak of?

There are several. Shall we go over them? We shall.

scalabrine · Answer

1) This is their archrival, the Nets.While the Knicks have floundered and have their noses just above water in a last gasp for the eighth spot, the Nets have shined, and are one of the best teams in the league since the start of 2014.Not only are they now in NY, they have a better roster, a better bench, a living legend PG as a coach, and all the positive attention of the media right now. This is after the freefall at the beginning of the year that they recovered beautifully from. It was so bad, Jason Kidd was spilling drinks on the court to get extra timeouts for god&#x27;s sake. It is the same freefall the Knicks only very recently started to emerge from but if they don&#x27;t make the playoffs, it won&#x27;t matter. Their record is still awful at 32-43 while the Nets have a respectable 40 wins and will finish over .500 at a minimum.I can&#x27;t accentuate how much it means to play the Nets in this very spot. It is redemption. It is in front of your home crowd. It is a reclamation of your city, a city the Nets just moved into. You may think that is hyperbole and the Knicks only are thinking about another win. That is baloney. I have watched the Nets vs. Knicks my entire life and the Knicks take these games very seriously far beyond &#x27;another win&#x27;. During the Kidd era, the Knicks could do nothing about it. I can get the exact stat but at one point, the Nets were 22-2 SU over 6 seasons against the Knicks. Their roster was so atrocious and the coaching was a Barnum and Bailey act. So this game has a little extra to it given Kidd, the ex-Knick and Net, is now the coach of the Nets.No matter how good you think the Nets are, facing the Nets in this spot is a GOOD thing for the Knicks given the above. It carries that extra weight to get us a win and get us over the number. Not so with a team like Memphis or the Blazers. Yes, so, vs. the Nets.

scalabrine · Answer

2) The Knicks last home game was the horrific loss against the Cavs.Remember that game? I do. It started all the Knicks turmoil which almost knocked them out of the playoffs (and really should have if the Hawks could have won only about 3 more games).The Cavs came back from a 15 point deficit in that game and had an almost perfect fourth quarter shooting the ball to beat the Knicks by 6.The Knicks were so demoralized they gave up the infamous 52 to the horrid D-League Lakers in the next game.After almost blowing a colossal 24 point lead to the Kings, they held on to win by 8.But then they were thrashed by the Suns. So that Cavs game wasn&#x27;t a one game aberration. They lost 3 of 4 with that game all after winning 8 in a row.The point is, this is their first home game since that Cavs game. That matters. Throw the "First home game after a road trip" trend out the window. Every game matters and all &#x27;trends&#x27; for the most part are irrelevant this late in the season, especially for the Knicks in this spot.It matters for the fans who are DYING for a playoff spot. If the Knicks can get the Pacers in the first round, they can actually take that series to 7 and possibly win it. But Knicks fans, as delusional as they are, want Miami. I can assure you, if they make the playoffs and get Miami and LBJ i in a series and make it interesting, the entire debacle that is this year will quickly be forgotten when they snag a win against them (they most certainly would not get swept and would at least get 2).How do you get the Pacers? How do you get Miami? You win and win some more and dispatch the Hawks and surging Cavs to get that eighth playoff spot. The Cavs are actually more dangerous to the Knicks right now than the Hawks are given the way they are playing! So they MUST win.You have your home court in front your fans, who will be absolutely AMPED for the first time since the loss that almost derailed your season. It is the PERFECT opportunity to make amends with a quality win and that quality can come no better than your arch-rival. The only other team here that would be better to play is Miami given they may play them if they make the playoffs but the Nets are most certainly sweeter given the geography.

scalabrine · Answer

3) The Zen-MasterPhil has attended 2 Knicks games since coming on board. One was the big win against the Pacers in his second day on the job. And the other was in LA. He kept a low profile after the LA debacle. He will be in attendance according to Newsday for the Nets game tomorrow. Do you think that matters? It sure as he** does. The guy is going to completely revamp this team and anyone who wants to stay on board better impress him. Not only that, but the Knicks have been so lacking in championship pedigree of any kind from any player, except Kidd and he got them out to an 18-5 start last year (and the current Knicks roster backs this up interviews that Kidd was the impetus for that start), just the effect of his presence brings the Knicks and extra boost of confidence and a healthy dose of pressure that they lacked in the Cavs game (he was not there) and the Suns game (also not there). He was at the Lakers game but that game was more about LA sticking it to Phil than the Knicks performing in front of him.He matters and it is reported he&#x27;ll be there.And this is VERY BIG GAME in front of your home crowd.4) Playoff situation vs. the HawksEven though the Knicks are one game back, they are actually two. Tie-breakers, if they both finish with the same record, go to the team with the better conference record.It has not been determined who will have the better conference record but let me say this, it is almost certain the Hawks will have it. The Hawks are 22-21 and the Knicks are 21-24. The problem is the Hawks have games against the Celtics, Bucks and Pistons and those games will almost certainly lock up the better conference record.So the Knicks have to be one game above the Hawks before the year ends.Every team the Knicks play from now until the end of the year is a playoff team. They have a tougher schedule than the Hawks.The Nets are here on deck, at home. Beat them now. No excuses.If you can&#x27;t beat the Nets in this spot and you fall potentially another game back, close up shop immediately. Literally, if they drop this game, it could mean the end given the above scenario (which is deceptively against the Knicks if not studied, leading Knicks homers to think "we&#x27;ll catch em baby!" and there is actually A LOT more work to do).

scalabrine · Answer

So we have a game against the Nets, the last home game being a debacle and now the Knicks are back home in front of their fans, and Phil in attendance. And we have a playoff situation that requires more urgency than you think (coaches should have conveyed such a thing to the players, but really, there is only time for wins here). You don't cap a game solely on these things.

But these are things that no program or system can account for. Numbers are blind. ATS trends have no intuitive memory or gauge of the state of the team. Cappers CAN account for these things and I am telling you that the 'forces' both internal and external with regard to the psychological state of the Knicks will propel them to victory in this spot.

Now that we have discussed the forces off the court in a macro-psychological sense, what has gone on, on the court?

Well since the Knicks were thrashed by the Suns, I was stunned to see a line of -7 against the Warriors.

Even without Lee and Bogut, Oracle Arena is a VERY tough spot to win in for a team like the Knicks against a Warrior team that toyed with them on their home court last time out. The Knicks lost by 23 points and were mired in an 8 game losing streak.

Remember that Knicks team? I do. You couldn't bet on them. They were dunking game winning baskets off their head.

Now they travel out west to face the Warriors again and the books made the Warriors lay 7 (6.5 in some spots)!

Do you want to know how much respect Vegas is giving them now?
The Warriors laid 6 when they went to MSG.

The Knicks are so improved (even with all their crazy line movement), that Vegas barely adjusted the line by a single point when the Warriors went from MSG to their home court. A typical line move would be SIX POINTS all things being equal.

Well guess what happened in that game? The spread didn't matter and the Knicks won SU by 5.

That was an incredibly gutsy win.

I continually refer to a 'jumping off point' with teams, that is, a moment where teams transform into something higher and more purposeful in their quest for the playoffs or seeding in the playoffs. It happened with the Cavs when they came back from 15 against the Knicks. They have won 3 of 4 since that win.

The Knicks also appear to have had a 'jumping off point'. They went on a 12-0 run to end the second quarter and the Warriors never took the lead again.

That shocked me and like the Cavs, in that run EVERYTHING was falling. They were on another level. When they came out for the second half, you saw the confidence level maintained.

In a tie game with 8 minutes left in the fourth, they took the lead back and held it. Tied again with 2 minutes, they took the lead back and held it. That is incredibly hard to do on a west coast trip, in rockin' Oracle, against a team like the Warriors who went small and had the Knicks running up and down the court like maniacs, with the one thing the Knicks can't defend...the 3 looming from every shot from the Splash Brothers.

Well they defended it MUCH better than in recent memory and although threes some fell late from Curry, many others didn't because the Knicks perimeter defense was MUCH better than I've seen all season. I just rewatched the game and they moved the balltremendously well. The rotations were crisp as were the defensive switches.

And I'd also like to note that Carmelo had a very poor game shooting-wise. Also, Melo had not 1, not 2, but THREE fouls MIDWAY through the second quarter.

Now which one of you here would have in-game bet THE KNICKS when Melo, their star, their golden boy, picked up his third foul with 6 minutes left in the second quarter? We know how many...virtually none except Knicks homers who still have a wrinkled Charles Oakley jersey in their closet.

The next night, on a b2b, they easily dispatched the Jazz in a business-as-usual win, a sign of a team that knows it's mission and is confident in it's route.

scalabrine · Answer

External forces and on the court play will lead to one thing, a Knicks victory tonight.

I don't want to hear about how great the Nets are etc. etc. etc.. They are playing rock solid ball on both sides.

But you cannot come here and tell me that because they are fighting to catch Toronto and Chicago for seeding, that their win in this game is more important or even remotely equally important in comparison to the Knicks winning this game.

It's not even close in terms of which game means more to which team (the Knicks) and the Nets DESERVE to go to Chicago for 7 after the crap they pulled last year after losing to a team that was practically bare-as*ed in a hospital gown with a catheter in its....well, that's how injured and sick they were.

Onto the line. It is now -2.5. I really thought it would open at 4. Knicks lines are always inflated but I guess the books set a line by backing off the Nets home court -3.5 Nets if this game was in Brooklyn (6 the other way is the rule of thumb) so I see how it is 2.5. Even -3.5 Nets for their home winning streak is too low so this line for Knicks backers is not a good one, but it is low enough for us to take.

The problem with the line is the Houston game. We didn't need a b2b to win this and now we are giving up points because of that very back to back. It is very GOOD the Nets beat Houston though. Thank god for that. Coming off a loss there changes things greatly. I did think they looked a little too good vs. Houston though which brought me a bit of discomfort here but there is enough to overcome it.

Because of the betting DEBACLE I just suffered and because my condition for an ideal bet is <=2, making the spread basically irrelevant, I am buying the hook. But that is ONLY because of what the Pistons did to me and I almost NEVER do it. I'm sure you understand and that is up to you with regard to how you handle some extra juice.

If I win this play, I'll look for some more spots this year. If I lose, I'll probably disappear until who knows. I simply CANNOT keep capping for this board on a three game losing streak so I look to put the previous two losses to bed right here and now.

Anyhow, Vegas, my money??? ON.....YOUR....KNEES

THE PICK:

KNICKS -2 OVER NETS (bought the hook)

examine · Answer

Beautiful Love it

begginerboy · Answer

Scal, I&#x27;m at a loss for words. I&#x27;m so happy to see you back! Let&#x27;s get this one, friend!

dawgs777 · Answer

yeahhhhhhh  welcome back!!!

examine · Answer

And I love the fact that the Nets blew there load vs the Rockets
Played well over there heads and now they come back to earth

Great tiny line
Great write, way to come back strong and save us from the death of those rings of hell

Stickcam1980 · Answer

Knicks it is.....

Jailbait7127 · Answer

Scal how many stars haha. Great to see u back

its_1999_my · Answer

Glad to see you back but I&#x27;ll be on the other side. Hard to fade this Nets team right now.

lmb4321 · Answer

SCAL...Needed to hear you are back...

lmb4321 · Answer

and I love the bet....

lmb4321 · Answer

I think the Nets have got there playoff spot secured and they will coast tomorrow..

melossinglet · Answer

yo watsup scalabrine!!....knew you wouldnt be gone long.another great contribution,appreciated as alwaysi was really on the fence with this one,the line seems really,really strange to me but then im far from an expert on line-setting...my guess woulda been closer to a pik em and this is the major reason why if forced to choose i lean to the nets with that xtra possession....this reeks to me of wat may be a tight-finishing game more than likely and 2 or 3 in the pocket is obviously rather handy in that situation.....im still mulling it over and,like so many others,am scared silly at the form brooklyn has strutted going back quite a long while now.......but will take your opinion into consideration above and beyond anything else wen/if betting this one.my one reservation about knicks is,even tho in a "mission" mind-set one just has to question if they have the outright talent to consistently maintain this roll wen put under pressure by an elite side....and how will they respond wen put under the torch in waning moments of a (potential)tight game??......nets are better by a good margin than the warriors,jazz and kings all rolled into one(even in their own buildings) and are obviously super-high on confidence.this is a huge "show and prove" gut-check game without question.you got me thinking and swaying for sure tho

vincent · Answer

Scal u didn&#x27;t lose that DET game  DET gave it away and it hurts and was a 3260 swing for me still sick about it , but everything went wrong in the last 19 secs for that game to lose  U will get it back bro

Mike C. · Answer

Glad you&#x27;re back  Now let&#x27;s go Knicks!

naruto27 · Answer

lets do this everyone!! ALL IN FOR NYK!! LET DOWN SPOT FOR BKN WHO DEFEATED HOU AND TO THINK THAT BKN IS A MEDIOCRE TEAM IN BACK TO BACK GAMES.. NYK IT IS!

its_1999_my · Answer

Nope it&#x27;s the exact opposite. Nets are in 5th place right now and spots 3-5 are separated by only 1 game in the loss column. The Nets would much rather get the 3rd seed and have home court in the 1st round and possibly face the Struggling Pacers if they don&#x27;t fall to the 7th seeded Bobcats in the 1st. If the Nets come out sluggish it won&#x27;t be due to lack of motivation it will be fatigue. Nothing would be sweeter to the Nets than beating the Knicks at their house and getting one step closer to the 3rd seed.

begginerboy · Answer

Like the Indiana/NY game this game is not about the Nets; it&#x27;s about the Knicks. It is their game to lose.

Try2Win1987 · Answer

why buy the hook?

axion · Answer

Sorry scal, but I am just not liking this one. BKN really wants to win the division and there will too much pressure on NYK to play well tomorrow. Not to mention that NYK's roster is still a complete disaster.

Vegas, you fu**ed with the wrong capper at the wrong time. Now I bleed you dry. NETS@KNICKS!

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