Reverse Total Movement (RTM)

great insight Roto, mark, Raider, Tiger, Skrill and Capt I was hoping this way of looking at totals would open up to solid insight and so far so good as you guys make great points.

Unfortunately I don't really bet on my Blazers my judgement gets clouded, drives me nuts so not too much help there. I did look at that NY/Orl game and that was a big 15pt jump but not a RTM so left it alone but your logic behind the over is exactly mine and how I look at totals Roto. Thanks for the comments everyone.

Tiger don't know about tagging, would be interested though as i follow guys in here and would like an easier way to find threads.

Mark pls post your thought on New Orleans anytime as it is very helpful and i'll do the same with Blazers.

where do you get your stats from bro? this is the real deal

proversbowl, no stats really, I look at rematches only and if the total moves opposite (reverse) from the past result then I red flag it and look deeper. For example Char played Cle a couple weeks ago and the set total was 193 and the game went well under only scoring 178, yet tonight's total was 1.5pts higher at 194.5 (red flag which automatically gets me thinking we may get a higher scoring game). So then I look into past matchups to see if any data supports the over play and it did, unfortunately missed the Cha TT so 1-1 thus far. Hope that explains it if not let me know and I'll try again. By no means is every "Reverse Total Move" a play but when you whittle em down you can hammer some tasty ones, like that Cavs over.

thanks man. just wondering where you get the info for what the past lines were/past matchups i guess you can go back and find them by searching the web but was wondering if you had a site with all this stuff listed 

try statfox

nice call on the under every which way in Minn fellas

statfox

awesome stuff! u made me a lot of money today

Good Job straight wagers. I like your system i have been following your posts and using some of your knowledge. Its similar to what ive been watching for on the totals.. I like a guy who does his home work instead of just getting on here and spouting off picks. Keep up the good work! Thanks appreciate it.

Will u use this RTM into any other sports like nfl/ ncaaf as well

very nice alice and nmw and thanks for posting, and no not yet vankiep no RTM on other sports but feel free to try it and definitely let us know the results

well the RTM went a perfect 4-4 (actually 5-5 as Indy/Mia was an RTM but total wasn't out when I posted the others and it hit also) and I went 1-1 shocker as I played Cha TT o that missed by 2pts...reminder that just b/c it is a RTM does not make it an auto play for me unless further data supports it, the fact that it went 5-5 is great but shouldn't mean you follow all of them, what it does mean is that it will usually hit at a good clip when we narrow those 4 or 5 games down to 1 or 2 solids, like when we identified NO/Minn as an RTM under and Mark, cdog and Stan chimed in info that all supported the under following it hit very easily so did Min TT under, also the Cavs over cashed easily that's what I'm looking for...anyways, on to today's RTM

NY/Cha 185 they've met three times this season on 11/2 set total was 184.5 and game ended over at 189, on 12/5 total was appropriately raised to 190 and game ended over at 205, on 1/10 there was a RTM downward move 3.5pts to 186.5 despite last big over and the game once again ended over at 192 (we woulda lost if we followed that RTM)...now we get another RTM even further downward to 185 despite every game in this series this and last season going over, so you have to ask yourself does Vegas have the pulse in this series? usually they don't whiff twice in a row, the RTM would definitely be UNDER but let's dig a little more before pulling the trigger

Philly/Mem 190 they've met once on 12/13 set total was 191.5 and game ended over at 235 (218 after regulation)...now we get a RTM downward move of 1.5pts despite that massive over, RTM definitely suggests an UNDER play but let's dig deeper

looking for insight before I go on either of these unders as this season has those whacky 65pt qtrs that come out of the blue to screw an under so I'd like to be dang sure before going on anything around 190 or less

Blazers report: looks like Batum won't play tonight according to reports...we are hurting with the lineup and now the bench will be very thin inserting 2 bench players into the starting line up, Coach Stotts hasn't had much time to prepare with these new guys playing together and there are definitely things to iron out especially this the 3rd game in 4 nights. We should be pretty vulnerable defensively, Celtics score 90pts on only 5 made FT and 17 turnovers, if Wiz can hang on to the ball and get to the line I think their TT over 100 is a decent play as we really can't stop anyone right now

[Quote: Originally Posted by proversbowl] thanks man. just wondering where you get the info for what the past lines were/past matchups i guess you can go back and find them by searching the web but was wondering if you had a site with all this stuff listed  [Just go to Covers Scores dropdown to NBA...Then click on matchup and it will give you everything you need.    

Raider look above your post, hopefully that helps out

I'm thinking Philly doesn't even get on the plane to Memphis after being up 8 at home with 3 min left and losing, I recall a few Orl games this season where they just did not get on the plane to Cavs (106-74) and Atl (87-81) and this strikes me as a similar bad team in a similar situation. The recent Tor/Mem game was at 145 total points with 3:45 left in the 4th and a foul fest gave them an incredible 33pts in last 3:45 to end at 178, in fact Tor needed 27-32 FT just to get 86pts. I really cannot see Philly showing up tonight and doubt they get out of the 70s so am playing RTM under 190 and Philly TT under 86.5 as my 2 plays and hope for a 103-75 finish

This is good stuff.  Thank you for posting. 

Wagers- just FYI:

The reason the 1st MEM/PHI sailed over was bc MEM was on a B2B and had just played triple OT the night before and then had to travel to PHi. They were completely gassed.

I agree with the under lean for this game. Best of luck tonight!

Aldridge is playing.     Must be delaying surgery to the off season

[Quote: Originally Posted by Tigers2013] Aldridge is playing.     Must be delaying surgery to the off season [Just got the NBA ticket now that football is over.  Been following Portland they traded scores with Phoenix without Aldridge.  Looked like a whole different team the next night at home against Boston.  Couldnt pull away and ended up getting beat by a 3 at the buzzer. Portland needs a win tonight you gotta figure they show up to play at home.  If Aldridge plays a definite bonus for the middle.  Not sure how effective he will be with one hand.  Gotta like a West vs East home live dog tonight.]

this is RTM at it's finest, NY/Cha haven't played under this 185 now 181 Total in 2 years or 7 match ups  and are coming off 2 huge over games last night and this total is dropping like a rock..a 4pt move after the total has been released is pretty big, I'll watch and see what happens here wouldn't be surprised to see an 80pt half, I'm sure some peeps are pounding the over now too

This is for real!!

killer pick on the Knicks under.

any plays on the two late games?  (Jazz at  9 ET or Wizards at 10 ET?)


Thanks for the great picks!

StraightWagers, first time I have come across you on covers. Where have you been hiding for the past 2 seasons? You seem to know your stuff about totals? 

Great call on the Knicks.  I really like this logic.   Even with the Knicks lifting their tempo recently this game was well under 

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