Reverse Total Movement (RTM)

I think it's the right time to take a hard look at Totals as there are 2 other guys putting out Totals threads. I'm strictly a Totals player and have developed a way of looking at Totals that is very successful in the WNBA and, if applied correctly, can be profitable at the halfway point of the NBA season where we are at now.

Firstly, I threw my hands in the air and completely gave up when trying to cap games as I realized there is NOTHING I can think up (no angle, no stats, etc...) that the man Vegas already hadn't. It was like beating my head against the wall trying to grasp at straws everyday. So I decided to let Vegas tell me what was going on by the Totals they put out on games, specifically rematches. I don't remember exactly how this idea popped in my head, probably a good night of sipping Johnnie Walker Blue and staring at ESPN scoreboard but I do recall it was a WNBA rematch Indy/Conn that the light bulb went off and everything became crystal clear. Anyways, here's how it works and is applied today:

I strictly look at rematches, so for example when Atl hosted Detroit in a rematch this Monday I looked at the total of 202.5...These teams had met only 10 days ago and the total was set at 206.5 and the game went over at 209. So I term this 4pt downward movement 202.5 as a "Reverse Total Move" or RTM because it moves opposite the past result. I would think that the total since it went over last match would remain the same or even go up a bit but certainly not go lower. I look at this as Vegas tipping their hand so to speak, so dig in further to that last match: FGM/FGA, 3ptM/3ptA, FTM/FTA, scheduling, injuries, refs, past totals history and relevance, etc...Long story short, there was enough data to support Vegas' RTM and follow their lead on the under and the game does go under at 175pts. We followed the RTM tip and it paid off. However, if this game blew up and went over (won't win every time), file that info away and look to the next meeting March 31 and bet accordingly.

There are many prime examples when Vegas has the pulse of a series and you can literally watch the totals as a barometer of the final score, it's pretty amazing when it happens. Sometimes they completely whiff a series and that is valuable info too as we can profit when they overreach and don't have the pulse.

I'm posting on this side (usually hide out in WNBA forum) because I will try to point out RTM games each day and hope we get some savy, intelligent discussion on those specific totals. I don't bet every RTM unless there is enough data to support the play. In the long run we will uncover some Totals that are absolute hammer time b/c of the due diligence that has been done.

Today's RTM below....

the ones that qualify tonight

Orl/Det 208.5 they've met twice this season, on 11/7 the set total was 192.5 and the game went over at 200, the next meeting was 12/30 and total "appropriately" raised to 198 and game went under at 195...now we have a pretty significant RTM upwards to 208.5 off an under

Indy/Atl 192.5 also met twice, on 11/1 the set total was 193.5 and game crept over at 194, the next meeting was 12/8 and set total was 194 and game went over at 200...now we have a RTM going down to 192.5 despite last 2 results going over

Tor/Mem 199.5 met once on 11/19 and set total was 192.5 with game ending under at 188...now we have a RTM upwards to 199.5 despite past under result

OKC/Wash 205.5 met once on 1/2 and set total was 206 with game ending over at 211...now we have a small RTM downward to 205.5 despite past over

BKN/Sac 197 met once on 12/29 and set total was 204 with game ending over at 206...now we have a RTM downward to 197 despite past over

note: Hou/GS 218 they've met three times, on 11/8 set total was 209 with game ending under at 185, next meeting total dropped to 204.5 with game ending under again at 198, last meeting (and here's where the rubber meets the road) set total was RTM raised to 215 despite past 2 unders and sure enough game ends over at 237...tonight is not an RTM but that switch between games 2 and 3 was and a good example of the movement

Love the concept, but still iffy on the details a little bit. So which way are you leaning on these games?

so jp the direction I believe Vegas is pointing me is

Orl/Det over 208.5 b/c they significantly raised this total 10.5pts despite past 2 meetings going well under this total

Indy/Atl under 192.5 as the Man has lowered this total slightly (like Det/Atl) despite last results going over

Tor/Mem over 199.5 b/c Vegas raised total a full 7pts despite last game going under

OKC/Wash under 205.5 you get the picture by now

BKN/Sac under 197

however I now must dig deeper into stats, scheduling, pulse and see what people chime in, etc to see if any are a play...I'll post if any game stands out and is a play for me, but keep an eye on these and the direction they may go as sometimes these leans can help with a halftime total play

it works really well in WNBA where there are fewer games and tons of rematches and now that defenses and rotations are getting more set in NBA I think it'll work well going forward

GL

GL…

Interesting read. Not something I've tracked daily, but definitely consider recent past match ups when the rosters are relatively the same and look out for patterns and outliers. A game total that I had been thinking about today was OVER for the TOR@MEM game since 6 of the last 7 match-ups in this series have had a total of 189.5 or less and the other one was the most recent 192.5 that went under. Toronto is a good road OVER team and Memphis can score more now with Jeff Green, but again, with two good defensive teams playing a heated rivalry game a total set over 200 seems fishy and could certainly be a hat tip by Vegas as you put it.

Good stuff

I thing I look for is how have these teams been playing lately compared to when they last met. So in that Orlando game they last met before Det started on its un and started playing better. Remember Detroit was having a tough time scoring in the 1st 30 games or so and Orlando was playing good defense for the first part of the year. Recently Det scoring has increased and Orlando scoring has increased and defense has regressed. Don't know if that warrants a 10 point swing in the total but for me over or no play on this game.

I like your system a lot. I am curious tho--have you used it much before and what kind of results did you get?

I agree with the basic principle. I look at games where the line looks fishy ie way too high or way too low. If I bet these games I'll bet over on the "too high" games and under on the "too low" games. My fishy lines are a gut feeling whereas yours are based on specific stats but the idea is the same.

Lakers a couple of seasons ago were money for jam. Sometimes they'd play a defensive game and sometimes they'd attack like crazy. Funny that the books always seemed to know what style they were going to play.

The two that you've hit on today (Detroit, Toronto) are the two obvious fishy lines. Don't know yet if I'll touch either or both, but if I do it will definitely be an Over bet.

I look forward to your future posts and thanks for todays information.

thanks for your comments, at this point I will just observe the games tonight as we are just getting going, I have used this before with success (all season in WNBA and after halfway in NBA)

the Det and Mem totals are flying up which is interesting to see what happens

 

 

I can vouch for Wagers WNBA system; it works and he has done well there, as have I.  Found that the WNBA is easier to cap since less teams and they play each other more often.

Gonna try and parlay the picks and if they work, then I'm up a nice $; if lose on one or two, won't be out a ton of $.

Keep up the good work Wagers!

Aloha!
JY

thanks Jedi appreciate it, BOL I'ma wait a bit and see how things pan out and hopefully things line up and we strike

today's RTM:

Cha/Cle 194.5 they've met twice this season on 12/15 set total 196.5 and ended under at 185, next meeting 1/2 set total 193 and again ended under 178 now a RTM of 1.5pts up to 194.5
What's interesting about this match is Cha is playing much better now, in last mtg Cle was on a 3 game losing streak and w/out Lebron and faced Cha who were also struggling losers of 4 straight and on 3rd game in 4 nights with an OT thrown in there and w/out Al Jefferson, it was an ugly game. Before that once again Cha was on 3rd in 4 nights with an OT thrown in again and were flat at Cle going down 21-0 early before chipping away and losing 97-88. Both meetings were pretty flat, now Vegas supports a high total despite past under results. Cha and Cle are well rested, getting healthier and both are playing much better. I don't think Cha will go so quietly this time so will play the over 194.5 and Cha TT over 92.5 too.
104-96 Cle

Hou/Phx 220.5 they've met once on 12/6 with a set total of 206.5 and an under result of 195...now we get a pretty significant RTM upward of 14pts (similar to that Orl/Det 10pt move)
note: this is the highest total for either team this season, no play yet probably Hou TT over as Phx is no GS and Phx does not defend well in the paint and Hou will show them much more than Minny. LAL and Port did last 3 games

NO/Minn 202.5 they've met once on 11/14 with a set total of 205.5 and ended up way over at 230...now we get a RTM down by 3pts
Vegas has the pulse of this series as last season they opened series at 211 and game went over at 236 and then they RTM downward next mtg to 203 and get the under 165, then lower again to 198.5 and get another under 189, may play under but that's scary with Minn

LAL/SA 196 they've met twice on 11/14 set total of 205 and ended up under at 173, on 12/12 RTM up to 206 and game follows RTM and goes over at 222...now we get a RTM downward by 10pts to 196 despite last big over, no play who knows who's playing for SA on b2b

My Blazers are now without Lopez, Aldridge and Batum's right hand is injured but he'll most likely play but is not 100%. It showed last night that if you sit outside and just defend the 3pt shot we will struggle big time as our offense is disjointed without the inside out game that Aldridge provided, especially during substitutions. Sigh.

 2 plays, GL peeps

Good luck SW! I remember this logic back on CBS.  Hope it works out.


bk

thanks bk, GL tonight

Minn hasn't been able to score recently. I understand your system, but I think U98 for Minnesota is a better bet than the game total seeing as how they're only averaging 97.9 and seem to be in a scoring slump. They haven't got over 80 the past 2 games. NO is not a shutdown defense but they're average and they play at a moderate pace. 

I like your strategy I have been using something similar for a while now, I also look at similar teams and what the numbers is, for example Dallas is worse on defense than NO and Minn only scored 75 at home on 1 days rest.  Plus I like the movement of 202 down to 199 now, looks like a good under for me.

good points Stan and cdog, I appreciate the discussion...by no means is every RTM a play, it just narrows the betting down and like you guys point out once you dig a bit deeper on those RTMs a winning play can be found that follows the RTM like Minn TT under or Cha TT over, GL tonight

LOVE this post, Wagers. Thanks for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

I'm from NO so I follow their games pretty closely, that being said they're also a very volatile team (just check out the trend charts and it pretty much tells the whole story lately). Anyway here's my take on the game...

Straightwagers.  Great thread and stuff man...... I played your Blazers +7.5 against Phoenix then backed them again last night.  Boston had not beaten a Western Conference team in 24 tries til last night.  Previously Blazers had been good on back to backs.  The injuries have obviously been an issue for them...  I was going to start an ABC chase system and with their losses was going to use them in it....I will not bet on Blazers again til they are healthy.  Boston on the other hand I figured to be a good fade on West coast road trip.  Tonight they head to a up down Denver that is mostly down recently so.  Gonna follow your picks til I get a better feel for teams to fade and follow.  Blazers shoulda coulda woulda won that game easily in 4th qrtr.  Got give props to Boston for not fading out going away like I was hoping.  Thanks for the info man great stuff

Good thread.   Couple of questions not directly related

Tiger- Blaze def can not win the conference with Aldridge out 6-8 weeks. Tuff string of games coming up

I remember peeking at you in the WNBA, you were lights out, i hope it pans out well for you.  I’ll tail you for 50 each.