Hello all! I took Sunday off to spend time with my family, but I’m satisfied with the Friday and Saturday results (we won our 5-star bet on the Rockets +2.5 at the Thunder – just barely since they lost by 2 points but a win is a win! – lost our 4-star bet with the Wizards +3 and won our 3-star bet on the Raptors at Milwaukee). So far we are 7-4 in the playoffs and tonight I am suggesting one bet whose rating is 3 stars:
BUCKS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 6, Prof MJ = Raptors by 6.9)
WIZARDS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 2.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 1.6)
WARRIORS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 7, Prof MJ = Warriors by 6.5)
“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I was stubborn a few days ago with the Raptors and it paid off: after picking them in Game 3 and getting embarrassed in Milwaukee, I picked them again in Game 4 and they came back with a nice win. Let’s see if it is going to work with tonight’s pick as well as I’m going with the Wizards +2.5 in Atlanta. They lost badly in Game 3, trailing 38-20 through one quarter and losing the game 116-98. I’m expecting Washington to bounce back after losing by 15 points against the spread, which meets my criterion about betting teams in the playoffs that have lost the previous game by at least 12.5 points against the spread. As mentioned in previous posts, I expect to write an article about that this week. I would have picked Washington anyway because my statistical models are telling me to do so. It just reinforces my opinion on this pick.
Have a good day!
Professor MJ
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Hello all! I took Sunday off to spend time with my family, but I’m satisfied with the Friday and Saturday results (we won our 5-star bet on the Rockets +2.5 at the Thunder – just barely since they lost by 2 points but a win is a win! – lost our 4-star bet with the Wizards +3 and won our 3-star bet on the Raptors at Milwaukee). So far we are 7-4 in the playoffs and tonight I am suggesting one bet whose rating is 3 stars:
BUCKS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 6, Prof MJ = Raptors by 6.9)
WIZARDS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 2.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 1.6)
WARRIORS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 7, Prof MJ = Warriors by 6.5)
“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I was stubborn a few days ago with the Raptors and it paid off: after picking them in Game 3 and getting embarrassed in Milwaukee, I picked them again in Game 4 and they came back with a nice win. Let’s see if it is going to work with tonight’s pick as well as I’m going with the Wizards +2.5 in Atlanta. They lost badly in Game 3, trailing 38-20 through one quarter and losing the game 116-98. I’m expecting Washington to bounce back after losing by 15 points against the spread, which meets my criterion about betting teams in the playoffs that have lost the previous game by at least 12.5 points against the spread. As mentioned in previous posts, I expect to write an article about that this week. I would have picked Washington anyway because my statistical models are telling me to do so. It just reinforces my opinion on this pick.
Hi guys, tonight we’ve got a couple of games where the series is tied 2-2. Let’s have a look at the projections:
HAWKS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 5.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 5.9)
BULLS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 7.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.6)
I don’t see any value in any of the games, but you could consider betting the Bulls if the line moves to +8. Rajon Rondo, who was instrumental in the Bulls’ two wins at the TD Garden, was initially ruled out of tonight’s game, but some reports are hinting he might attempt to play tonight despite breaking his right thumb in Game 2. I adjusted the projections accordingly: I deducted 2.5% to Chicago’s chances of winning the match. Even if he plays, he certainly won’t be 100%.
In the other series, the Hawks have regained momentum by winning their two home games after losing the first two in Washington. A few weeks ago I felt like the Wizards had a decent chance of reaching the NBA Finals. They went 12-4 in January. Then 7-3 in February. They started the month of March with a 6-1 record, and then things got tricky. They finished the season with an 8-9 record and are now 2-2 in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Hawks also went through a difficult stretch in March, but at least they had an excuse: they missed Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore for a while. These guys came back on the court and the team went 6-3 to close out the regular season (including two wins against Cleveland and one against Boston). Here is an interesting fact: Atlanta is now 0-4 in Washington in 2016-07 (including the postseason) but all games were pretty close as shown by the margins of victory: 3, 4, 7 and 8. If you forced me to bet this game, I would go with the Hawks +5.5 (or taking the money line).
Have a good day!
Professor MJ
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Hi guys, tonight we’ve got a couple of games where the series is tied 2-2. Let’s have a look at the projections:
HAWKS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 5.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 5.9)
BULLS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 7.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.6)
I don’t see any value in any of the games, but you could consider betting the Bulls if the line moves to +8. Rajon Rondo, who was instrumental in the Bulls’ two wins at the TD Garden, was initially ruled out of tonight’s game, but some reports are hinting he might attempt to play tonight despite breaking his right thumb in Game 2. I adjusted the projections accordingly: I deducted 2.5% to Chicago’s chances of winning the match. Even if he plays, he certainly won’t be 100%.
In the other series, the Hawks have regained momentum by winning their two home games after losing the first two in Washington. A few weeks ago I felt like the Wizards had a decent chance of reaching the NBA Finals. They went 12-4 in January. Then 7-3 in February. They started the month of March with a 6-1 record, and then things got tricky. They finished the season with an 8-9 record and are now 2-2 in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Hawks also went through a difficult stretch in March, but at least they had an excuse: they missed Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore for a while. These guys came back on the court and the team went 6-3 to close out the regular season (including two wins against Cleveland and one against Boston). Here is an interesting fact: Atlanta is now 0-4 in Washington in 2016-07 (including the postseason) but all games were pretty close as shown by the margins of victory: 3, 4, 7 and 8. If you forced me to bet this game, I would go with the Hawks +5.5 (or taking the money line).
I have Hawks in mind too, everybody is on Wizards ats, and margin moved only for 0,5... Every match was pretty close, it's seems too easy, to take wizards -6 and win.
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I have Hawks in mind too, everybody is on Wizards ats, and margin moved only for 0,5... Every match was pretty close, it's seems too easy, to take wizards -6 and win.
I have Hawks in mind too, everybody is on Wizards ats, and margin moved only for 0,5... Every match was pretty close, it's seems too easy, to take wizards -6 and win.
66% of the bets are going on Washington right now, I'm liking the Hawks play even more...
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Quote Originally Posted by chignix:
I have Hawks in mind too, everybody is on Wizards ats, and margin moved only for 0,5... Every match was pretty close, it's seems too easy, to take wizards -6 and win.
66% of the bets are going on Washington right now, I'm liking the Hawks play even more...
Two road teams are trying to close out their series in six games tonight. From a betting point of view, I’ve got one single play which is rated 1 star. Here are the day’s NBA projections:
RAPTORS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 1.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 0.1)
SPURS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4, Prof MJ = Spurs by 2.6)
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m betting the Grizzlies +4 against the Spurs. The home team has won the last 9 meetings between these two teams, so getting 4 points sounds nice here. Memphis holds a 6-3 record against the spread versus San Antonio over those last nine matchups. The Grizzlies were able to win both home games despite Kahwi Leonard averaging 30.5 points per game in Memphis. He has simply been amazing thus far in the series. He’s also 47/48 from the free throw line.
A few notes about the Raptors-Bucks game. Earlier in the series I picked the Raptors in both games played in Milwaukee. This time I’m staying away and if you asked me to pick a team I would go with the Bucks. First of all, Toronto beat the spread by 19 points in the previous game and you know I like to pick the opposing team in the next game. Especially at home where the Bucks will be desperate in front of their home fans while the Raptors may not feel as much urgency knowing they can always win Game 7 at Air Canada Centre. Also, I would like to thank “joel00” from Covers.com who did a little investigation after reading my claim that you should bet teams losing their previous playoff game by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS). He found out that a team that (1) lost by more than 12 points ATS in the last game (2) is behind or tied in the series (3) is established as a favorite in the current game (spread -0.5 or more) is 70-43-1 against the spread. That’s an impressive 61.9% win percentage!
Have a good day!
Professor MJ
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Two road teams are trying to close out their series in six games tonight. From a betting point of view, I’ve got one single play which is rated 1 star. Here are the day’s NBA projections:
RAPTORS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 1.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 0.1)
SPURS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4, Prof MJ = Spurs by 2.6)
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m betting the Grizzlies +4 against the Spurs. The home team has won the last 9 meetings between these two teams, so getting 4 points sounds nice here. Memphis holds a 6-3 record against the spread versus San Antonio over those last nine matchups. The Grizzlies were able to win both home games despite Kahwi Leonard averaging 30.5 points per game in Memphis. He has simply been amazing thus far in the series. He’s also 47/48 from the free throw line.
A few notes about the Raptors-Bucks game. Earlier in the series I picked the Raptors in both games played in Milwaukee. This time I’m staying away and if you asked me to pick a team I would go with the Bucks. First of all, Toronto beat the spread by 19 points in the previous game and you know I like to pick the opposing team in the next game. Especially at home where the Bucks will be desperate in front of their home fans while the Raptors may not feel as much urgency knowing they can always win Game 7 at Air Canada Centre. Also, I would like to thank “joel00” from Covers.com who did a little investigation after reading my claim that you should bet teams losing their previous playoff game by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS). He found out that a team that (1) lost by more than 12 points ATS in the last game (2) is behind or tied in the series (3) is established as a favorite in the current game (spread -0.5 or more) is 70-43-1 against the spread. That’s an impressive 61.9% win percentage!
Hello all! We have two more second-round series getting under way tonight in the NBA and I’ve got one value bet which is rated 3 stars. Let’s have a look!
RAPTORS-CAVS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 6.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 4.7)
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 5.3)
“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Raptors +6.5 at the Cavaliers. The season series went 3-1 in favor of Cleveland, but their only loss occurred in the season finale, a game in which both teams rested several key players. In other words, the Cavaliers won all three meaningful games but the total combined margin of victory was 11 (they won by 4, 4, and 3 points). As of 9am, 67% of the bets on the spread and 77% of the bets on the money line have gone Cleveland’s way. Despite the unbalanced action, the line hasn’t moved yet. That’s something I like to see. Worried about the fact that Cleveland is the more rested team after having swept Indiana while the Raptors were involved in a six-game series? Over the past 9 seasons, teams coming off a sweep were 3-3 against the spread in Game #1 of the next round when facing a team that won its previous series in six games. The sample size is small, but nothing to scare me away from betting Toronto. Also remember HOW the Cavs eliminated the Pacers: they won by 1, 6, 5 and 4 points against a weaker Indiana team.
Have fun watching the games!
Professor MJ
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Hello all! We have two more second-round series getting under way tonight in the NBA and I’ve got one value bet which is rated 3 stars. Let’s have a look!
RAPTORS-CAVS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 6.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 4.7)
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 5.3)
“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Raptors +6.5 at the Cavaliers. The season series went 3-1 in favor of Cleveland, but their only loss occurred in the season finale, a game in which both teams rested several key players. In other words, the Cavaliers won all three meaningful games but the total combined margin of victory was 11 (they won by 4, 4, and 3 points). As of 9am, 67% of the bets on the spread and 77% of the bets on the money line have gone Cleveland’s way. Despite the unbalanced action, the line hasn’t moved yet. That’s something I like to see. Worried about the fact that Cleveland is the more rested team after having swept Indiana while the Raptors were involved in a six-game series? Over the past 9 seasons, teams coming off a sweep were 3-3 against the spread in Game #1 of the next round when facing a team that won its previous series in six games. The sample size is small, but nothing to scare me away from betting Toronto. Also remember HOW the Cavs eliminated the Pacers: they won by 1, 6, 5 and 4 points against a weaker Indiana team.
Hi guys, nothing spectacular from a betting perspective tonight. I’ve got one play rated 1 star and I’ll provide some insight on both games. First, let’s see the projections:
WIZARDS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.3)
JAZZ-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 13, Prof MJ = Warriors by 12.9)
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m taking the Celtics -5 against the Wizards. The status of Washington forward Markieff Morris is uncertain at the moment. He claimed he was going to suit up for sure, but his coach made it sound like he was not likely to be on the court. Also, Morris was seen with a very noticeable limp after the game and he apparently struggled to put on his shoe because there was too much swelling. I penalized the Wizards 3% based on this information (i.e. their estimated win probability went from 31.2% to 28.2%). Boston is 7-2 against the spread versus the Wizards over the past 9 contests. I remain cautious about that game though. During the regular season, Boston beat Washington by 8 and 9-point margins at home but lost by 25 and 15 points on the road. The Wizards blew an early 16-0 lead by losing Game 1 by a 123-111 score, thanks to a flurry of 3-pointers by the Celtics.
The other game features Game 1 of the Jazz-Warriors series. I’m leaning towards Golden State, but I’m going to stay away from that game. Since the 2009 playoffs, teams coming off a 4-game sweep are 8-2 against the spread in Game 1 of the next round when facing a team that needed 7 games to finish off their previous opponents. Jazz power forward Derrick Favors is listed as questionable: he did not practice yesterday, but back soreness may not be enough to prevent him from playing (although he won’t be 100%). Meanwhile, Kevin Durant probably appreciated the week off to heal his calf injury.
Have a great day!
Professor MJ
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Hi guys, nothing spectacular from a betting perspective tonight. I’ve got one play rated 1 star and I’ll provide some insight on both games. First, let’s see the projections:
WIZARDS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.3)
JAZZ-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 13, Prof MJ = Warriors by 12.9)
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m taking the Celtics -5 against the Wizards. The status of Washington forward Markieff Morris is uncertain at the moment. He claimed he was going to suit up for sure, but his coach made it sound like he was not likely to be on the court. Also, Morris was seen with a very noticeable limp after the game and he apparently struggled to put on his shoe because there was too much swelling. I penalized the Wizards 3% based on this information (i.e. their estimated win probability went from 31.2% to 28.2%). Boston is 7-2 against the spread versus the Wizards over the past 9 contests. I remain cautious about that game though. During the regular season, Boston beat Washington by 8 and 9-point margins at home but lost by 25 and 15 points on the road. The Wizards blew an early 16-0 lead by losing Game 1 by a 123-111 score, thanks to a flurry of 3-pointers by the Celtics.
The other game features Game 1 of the Jazz-Warriors series. I’m leaning towards Golden State, but I’m going to stay away from that game. Since the 2009 playoffs, teams coming off a 4-game sweep are 8-2 against the spread in Game 1 of the next round when facing a team that needed 7 games to finish off their previous opponents. Jazz power forward Derrick Favors is listed as questionable: he did not practice yesterday, but back soreness may not be enough to prevent him from playing (although he won’t be 100%). Meanwhile, Kevin Durant probably appreciated the week off to heal his calf injury.
We are all set for Game 2 of a couple of very interesting series. Will the Raptors and/or the Spurs rebound following an ugly loss in Game 1? I’m betting “yes” in both cases. Let’s dive into the details right away:
RAPTORS-CAVS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 7, Prof MJ = Cavs by 4.7)
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 6.6)
“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Raptors +7 at the Cavaliers. The only notable injury is Cleveland’s J.R. Smith who tweaked his right thumb during the first game of the series (the same thumb that was surgically repaired earlier). He is listed as probable, so he should be fine. The spread was 6.5 in Game 1 and has increased by half a point for tonight’s match. Two days ago I noticed 67% and 77% of the spread and money line bets going on Cleveland; those numbers are now 70% and 84% despite the bigger line, so the public is pretty heavily on the Cavaliers in this one.
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m taking the Spurs -5.5 against the Rockets. Those of you who have read my article entitled “NBA Bounce-Back ATS Betting Trend Points to Stronger Effort from the Spurs in Game 2” (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2) are probably not surprised by this pick. In this analysis, I pointed out that teams losing by more than 22 points against the spread (ATS) in a playoff game hold a 67-45 (59.8%) ATS in their next game facing the same opponent. Considering they lost by 33 points ATS, the Spurs easily qualify. Houston’s starters outscored San Antonio’s 77-44 through three quarters. Wow! Another stunning stat: the Rockets have now won their last six trips to San Antonio in postseason play. Let’s see if the Spurs can turn things around. It should be fun to watch!
Good luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
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We are all set for Game 2 of a couple of very interesting series. Will the Raptors and/or the Spurs rebound following an ugly loss in Game 1? I’m betting “yes” in both cases. Let’s dive into the details right away:
RAPTORS-CAVS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 7, Prof MJ = Cavs by 4.7)
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 6.6)
“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Raptors +7 at the Cavaliers. The only notable injury is Cleveland’s J.R. Smith who tweaked his right thumb during the first game of the series (the same thumb that was surgically repaired earlier). He is listed as probable, so he should be fine. The spread was 6.5 in Game 1 and has increased by half a point for tonight’s match. Two days ago I noticed 67% and 77% of the spread and money line bets going on Cleveland; those numbers are now 70% and 84% despite the bigger line, so the public is pretty heavily on the Cavaliers in this one.
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m taking the Spurs -5.5 against the Rockets. Those of you who have read my article entitled “NBA Bounce-Back ATS Betting Trend Points to Stronger Effort from the Spurs in Game 2” (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2) are probably not surprised by this pick. In this analysis, I pointed out that teams losing by more than 22 points against the spread (ATS) in a playoff game hold a 67-45 (59.8%) ATS in their next game facing the same opponent. Considering they lost by 33 points ATS, the Spurs easily qualify. Houston’s starters outscored San Antonio’s 77-44 through three quarters. Wow! Another stunning stat: the Rockets have now won their last six trips to San Antonio in postseason play. Let’s see if the Spurs can turn things around. It should be fun to watch!
"bet teams losing their previous playoff game by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS). He found out that a team that (1) lost by more than 12 points ATS in the last game (2) is behind or tied in the series (3) is established as a favorite in the current game (spread -0.5 or more) is 70-43-1 against the spread. That’s an impressive 61.9% win percentage!"
I recall you writing that before and am curious where you got the info from because I'm not getting the same win percentage from my findings. Thanks.
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"bet teams losing their previous playoff game by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS). He found out that a team that (1) lost by more than 12 points ATS in the last game (2) is behind or tied in the series (3) is established as a favorite in the current game (spread -0.5 or more) is 70-43-1 against the spread. That’s an impressive 61.9% win percentage!"
I recall you writing that before and am curious where you got the info from because I'm not getting the same win percentage from my findings. Thanks.
"bet teams losing their previous playoff game by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS). He found out that a team that (1) lost by more than 12 points ATS in the last game (2) is behind or tied in the series (3) is established as a favorite in the current game (spread -0.5 or more) is 70-43-1 against the spread. That’s an impressive 61.9% win percentage!"
I recall you writing that before and am curious where you got the info from because I'm not getting the same win percentage from my findings. Thanks.
Got the info from a dataset I own and doing some programming in R to get the results. How different were your results? Did you use the same timeframe?
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Quote Originally Posted by SBT:
"bet teams losing their previous playoff game by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS). He found out that a team that (1) lost by more than 12 points ATS in the last game (2) is behind or tied in the series (3) is established as a favorite in the current game (spread -0.5 or more) is 70-43-1 against the spread. That’s an impressive 61.9% win percentage!"
I recall you writing that before and am curious where you got the info from because I'm not getting the same win percentage from my findings. Thanks.
Got the info from a dataset I own and doing some programming in R to get the results. How different were your results? Did you use the same timeframe?
Hello all! It will be interesting to see if the Wizards can get back into their series against the Celtics. Meanwhile, can the Jazz pull off a major upset by beating the Warriors in Golden State? Unfortunately, I don’t see any profitable bet today. Let’s see the projections and I’ll comment a little bit:
CELTICS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 5.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 4.5)
JAZZ-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 12.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 12.9)
The Wizards deserved a better fate. In Game 1 they grabbed an early 16-0 lead, but ended up losing the game after a horrible third quarter. In Game 2, they were up 42-29 through the first quarter, but couldn’t hang on once again. With the score tied they had two chances to get the win in the final seconds of regulation but couldn’t sink the winning basket; they eventually lost in overtime. It’s now time for them to roll up their sleeves and get back up in front of their home fans, where they have done well against the Celtics this season. As a matter of fact, Washington beat Boston by 25 and 15 points at home.
My “Bounce-Back Effect” article (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2) is recommending that we bet the Wizards since they have lost the last two games against the spread (ATS) by 4.5+ points. However, had Game 2 not gone into overtime the Wizards would have won ATS so I am going to stay away from that game, especially considering my statistical models are closer to a Celtics pick (projected spread Wizards -4.5 versus actual spread Wizards -5.5). Note that Celtics guard Avery Bradley was limited in practice yesterday, but he is fully expected to play tonight.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
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Hello all! It will be interesting to see if the Wizards can get back into their series against the Celtics. Meanwhile, can the Jazz pull off a major upset by beating the Warriors in Golden State? Unfortunately, I don’t see any profitable bet today. Let’s see the projections and I’ll comment a little bit:
CELTICS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 5.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 4.5)
JAZZ-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 12.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 12.9)
The Wizards deserved a better fate. In Game 1 they grabbed an early 16-0 lead, but ended up losing the game after a horrible third quarter. In Game 2, they were up 42-29 through the first quarter, but couldn’t hang on once again. With the score tied they had two chances to get the win in the final seconds of regulation but couldn’t sink the winning basket; they eventually lost in overtime. It’s now time for them to roll up their sleeves and get back up in front of their home fans, where they have done well against the Celtics this season. As a matter of fact, Washington beat Boston by 25 and 15 points at home.
My “Bounce-Back Effect” article (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2) is recommending that we bet the Wizards since they have lost the last two games against the spread (ATS) by 4.5+ points. However, had Game 2 not gone into overtime the Wizards would have won ATS so I am going to stay away from that game, especially considering my statistical models are closer to a Celtics pick (projected spread Wizards -4.5 versus actual spread Wizards -5.5). Note that Celtics guard Avery Bradley was limited in practice yesterday, but he is fully expected to play tonight.
Good Friday everyone! I am going to discuss both games that are being played tonight and as you will see, I’ve got a 4-star bet to recommend. I hope to bring some insight that might help you make your decisions from a betting standpoint. Enjoy the read!
CAVS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 0.1)
SPURS-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 4.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 4.3)
“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Raptors +4.5 against the Cavaliers. Toronto returns home after suffering two blowout losses in Cleveland. Not much has gone right for the Raptors in this series. On top of that, Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable after sustaining a left ankle injury. He did not practice yesterday and he did not participate in this morning’s shootaround: he will be a game-time decision. I’m not saying the Raptors represent a better team when Lowry is out, but remember they went 14-7 during his absence from February 24th to April 4th. That’s a .667 record which is better than their overall .622 record. My point is it might not be the end of the world. I did penalize the Raptors to account for this potential injury when making my projections (assuming he has a 50-50 chance of playing and that if he does play he won’t be 100%).
In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Toronto also lost the first two games of the series in Cleveland by wide margins (by 31 and 19 points). They rebounded by winning the next two at home, including a 15-point victory in Game 3. The public is betting the Cavaliers like crazy: 86% of the spread bets and 81% of the money line bets are going on Cleveland.
Also, recall my "Bounce-Back article" (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2): it suggests betting teams that have lost the previous game of the series by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS) and also to bet teams that have lost the previous two matchups by 4.5+ points ATS. Since the Raptors have lost Game 2 by 15 points ATS and Game 1 by 4.5 points ATS, they qualify for both criteria. I like this pick even more because of all of the above reasons.
A quick word about the Spurs-Rockets match. San Antonio beat the spread by 19.5 points in Game 2, so the strategy described in the Bounce-Back article recommends taking the Rockets. I prefer to stay away from that game, as I believe the line is inflated because of the Tony Parker injury. I subtracted 6% to the Spurs’ chances of winning the game (36.1% instead of 42.1%) which I feel is plenty enough. After making such an adjustment, my statistical models project a 4.3-point win by Houston, which is close to the spread and does not warrant betting them. The vast majority is jumping on the Rockets bandwagon right now, so I do not like this. Since I’ve got contradictory information and my projected lines are close to the actual spread, I’m staying away from that game.
Thanks a lot for reading!
Professor MJ
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Good Friday everyone! I am going to discuss both games that are being played tonight and as you will see, I’ve got a 4-star bet to recommend. I hope to bring some insight that might help you make your decisions from a betting standpoint. Enjoy the read!
CAVS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 0.1)
SPURS-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 4.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 4.3)
“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Raptors +4.5 against the Cavaliers. Toronto returns home after suffering two blowout losses in Cleveland. Not much has gone right for the Raptors in this series. On top of that, Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable after sustaining a left ankle injury. He did not practice yesterday and he did not participate in this morning’s shootaround: he will be a game-time decision. I’m not saying the Raptors represent a better team when Lowry is out, but remember they went 14-7 during his absence from February 24th to April 4th. That’s a .667 record which is better than their overall .622 record. My point is it might not be the end of the world. I did penalize the Raptors to account for this potential injury when making my projections (assuming he has a 50-50 chance of playing and that if he does play he won’t be 100%).
In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Toronto also lost the first two games of the series in Cleveland by wide margins (by 31 and 19 points). They rebounded by winning the next two at home, including a 15-point victory in Game 3. The public is betting the Cavaliers like crazy: 86% of the spread bets and 81% of the money line bets are going on Cleveland.
Also, recall my "Bounce-Back article" (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2): it suggests betting teams that have lost the previous game of the series by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS) and also to bet teams that have lost the previous two matchups by 4.5+ points ATS. Since the Raptors have lost Game 2 by 15 points ATS and Game 1 by 4.5 points ATS, they qualify for both criteria. I like this pick even more because of all of the above reasons.
A quick word about the Spurs-Rockets match. San Antonio beat the spread by 19.5 points in Game 2, so the strategy described in the Bounce-Back article recommends taking the Rockets. I prefer to stay away from that game, as I believe the line is inflated because of the Tony Parker injury. I subtracted 6% to the Spurs’ chances of winning the game (36.1% instead of 42.1%) which I feel is plenty enough. After making such an adjustment, my statistical models project a 4.3-point win by Houston, which is close to the spread and does not warrant betting them. The vast majority is jumping on the Rockets bandwagon right now, so I do not like this. Since I’ve got contradictory information and my projected lines are close to the actual spread, I’m staying away from that game.
Game 5 of the intriguing Rockets-Spurs series is set to begin at 8pm Eastern Time tonight. From a betting perspective, I’ve got a 1-star play. Here are the details:
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 6.6)
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m betting the Spurs -5.5 against the Rockets. The public is fairly split on this game with 58% of the spread bets going on San Antonio, while 51% of the money line bets are backing Houston. Recall how my Bounce-Back article suggests taking teams coming off a loss against the spread (ATS) of 12.5+ points: this criterion is met in this case since the Spurs lost Game 4 by a 21-point margin while being a 5-point underdog (i.e. a loss ATS by 16 points).
After winning their last six postseason trips to San Antonio, the Rockets finally lost on May 3rd. From an injury standpoint, the Spurs suffered a blow earlier in the series when Tony Parker was ruled out of the remainder of the playoffs with a quad injury. It was Houston’s turn to get bad news as Nene Hilario won’t be back because of an adductor tear. It’s pretty unfortunate considering he was playing great basketball of late.
We have yet to see a truly close game in this series: the smallest margin of victory has been 11 (in the other three games: 27, 25 and 21). San Antonio holds an 81-28 home record since 2002. Spurs guard Manu Ginobili expressed how important he felt tonight’s game was by saying “Game 5 is a Game 7”.
Enjoy the game!
Professor MJ
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Game 5 of the intriguing Rockets-Spurs series is set to begin at 8pm Eastern Time tonight. From a betting perspective, I’ve got a 1-star play. Here are the details:
ROCKETS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 6.6)
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
I’m betting the Spurs -5.5 against the Rockets. The public is fairly split on this game with 58% of the spread bets going on San Antonio, while 51% of the money line bets are backing Houston. Recall how my Bounce-Back article suggests taking teams coming off a loss against the spread (ATS) of 12.5+ points: this criterion is met in this case since the Spurs lost Game 4 by a 21-point margin while being a 5-point underdog (i.e. a loss ATS by 16 points).
After winning their last six postseason trips to San Antonio, the Rockets finally lost on May 3rd. From an injury standpoint, the Spurs suffered a blow earlier in the series when Tony Parker was ruled out of the remainder of the playoffs with a quad injury. It was Houston’s turn to get bad news as Nene Hilario won’t be back because of an adductor tear. It’s pretty unfortunate considering he was playing great basketball of late.
We have yet to see a truly close game in this series: the smallest margin of victory has been 11 (in the other three games: 27, 25 and 21). San Antonio holds an 81-28 home record since 2002. Spurs guard Manu Ginobili expressed how important he felt tonight’s game was by saying “Game 5 is a Game 7”.
The only game on the menu in the NBA is Game 5 of the Wizards-Celtics series. Let’s see the projections:
WIZARDS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 4.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 5.3)
I am staying away from that game because of conflicting arguments. The home team has won all eight meetings this year (4 in the regular season, 4 in the playoffs). You might also be tempted to bet the Celtics because they lost the previous game by 14 points against the spread (ATS) and the next-to-last match by 21.5 ATS according to the winning strategy described in my Bounce-Back article (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2).
Wizards forward Markieff Morris said “We’re the better team and we feel like we’ve been the better team.” If you take a closer look at the margins of victory in this year’s eight matchups, it’s hard to argue with him. Boston’s wins came by 9, 8, 12 and 10 margins, whereas Washington’s victories were by 25, 15, 27 and 19 points. That’s not even close.
For all of the above reasons and the fact that my projected lines are fairly close to the actual ones, I don’t see any value.
Enjoy the game!
Professor MJ
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The only game on the menu in the NBA is Game 5 of the Wizards-Celtics series. Let’s see the projections:
WIZARDS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 4.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 5.3)
I am staying away from that game because of conflicting arguments. The home team has won all eight meetings this year (4 in the regular season, 4 in the playoffs). You might also be tempted to bet the Celtics because they lost the previous game by 14 points against the spread (ATS) and the next-to-last match by 21.5 ATS according to the winning strategy described in my Bounce-Back article (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/ef2b2930-2f3a-11e7-bcfd-005056830dca/NBA-bounce-back-ATS-betting-trend-points-to-stronger-effort-from-the-Spurs-in-Game-2).
Wizards forward Markieff Morris said “We’re the better team and we feel like we’ve been the better team.” If you take a closer look at the margins of victory in this year’s eight matchups, it’s hard to argue with him. Boston’s wins came by 9, 8, 12 and 10 margins, whereas Washington’s victories were by 25, 15, 27 and 19 points. That’s not even close.
For all of the above reasons and the fact that my projected lines are fairly close to the actual ones, I don’t see any value.
Washington held Thomas to 32 points in Games 3-4 wins, after he torched them for 53 in Game 2. Home side won all four Celtic-Wizard games in this series and last eight meetings overall; Wizards lost their last four games in this arena (0-4 vs spread), by 9-8-12-10 points. Five of last seven series games went over- favorites are 9-2 vs spread in last eleven meetings. Wizards are 1-4 on road in playoffs, with only win in Game 6 clincher in Atlanta- the road losses were by 18-10-12-10 points. Celtics won last three home games, by 11-12-10 points, after losing two at home to Chicago. Over is 4-1 in last five Washington games.
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Washington held Thomas to 32 points in Games 3-4 wins, after he torched them for 53 in Game 2. Home side won all four Celtic-Wizard games in this series and last eight meetings overall; Wizards lost their last four games in this arena (0-4 vs spread), by 9-8-12-10 points. Five of last seven series games went over- favorites are 9-2 vs spread in last eleven meetings. Wizards are 1-4 on road in playoffs, with only win in Game 6 clincher in Atlanta- the road losses were by 18-10-12-10 points. Celtics won last three home games, by 11-12-10 points, after losing two at home to Chicago. Over is 4-1 in last five Washington games.
Good luck Professor 
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