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Professor MJ's daily NBA projections (statistical models)

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Professor-MJ

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Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Mar. 30, 2017 - 9:58 AM ET #51

Good morning everyone! Not a lot of games tonight in the NBA, and I’ve got a 2-star bet to recommend on the Cleveland-Chicago game. No projections on the Clippers-Suns game as the line is off the board. Enjoy the read!

NETS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 6, Prof MJ = Pistons by 5.8)

CAVALIERS-BULLS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 4)

LAKERS-TIMBERWOLVES (Pinnacle = Twoves by 10.5, Prof MJ = Twolves by 10.8)

ROCKETS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 1, Prof MJ = Rockets by 1.7)

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I like the Bulls +5.5 against the Cavaliers. 78% of the bets have gone on Cleveland so far, but the line hasn’t moved yet. Chicago will try to sweep the 4-game series after winning 111-105 at home and beating the Cavs twice on the road (106-94 and 117-99). As a matter of fact, the Bulls have won 6 of the last 7 matchups against Cleveland. They are 6-0 against the spread when facing the Cavs over the last 6 meetings. Pretty impressive! The Bulls have lacked consistency all year, but they haven’t done badly since losing Dwayne Wade to an injury (they managed to beat Utah and Milwaukee). Their worst outing over their last 8 games was a 10-point loss.

Some of the Cavs players have hinted some locker room issues, as the team is on a 7-10 stretch. Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue mentioned he would rest players in some of the remaining regular season games, but not tonight. However, Lebron James did leave Monday’s game with back stiffness after taking an elbow to the spine, and he is certainly not 100%. Cleveland’s defense has been pretty bad which made coach Lue tell reporters that “teams are so much faster than us.” I’m definitely taking the Bulls in this one.

Have fun watching the games!

Professor MJ

Teto

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 101

Posted: Mar. 30, 2017 - 10:45 AM ET #52

Hi, thanks for the good posts.

I'm just curious, have you tried taking on a model for O/U bets?

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 3, 2017 - 10:08 AM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by Teto:

Hi, thanks for the good posts.

I'm just curious, have you tried taking on a model for O/U bets?

Not yet, but that's one of my goals for next season!

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 3, 2017 - 10:10 AM ET #54

Hi guys, I hope you had a good weekend! I went back to the Olympic Stadium for the first time in several years to attend the Pirates-Jays exhibition game Saturday afternoon. It brought back some great memories of the many Montreal Expos games I went to over the years. I’m really crossing my fingers that a team comes back here, whether via expansion or a transfer.

Let’s go back to our basketball business: only one game tonight and I don’t see any value betting on either side. Let’s see the details:

BLAZERS-TIMBERWOLVES (Pinnacle = Timberwolves by 2, Prof MJ = Timberwolves by 2.2)

The Blazers have been on fire by winning 9 of their last 10 contests (they went 13-3 in March!). How will they react following the injury to Jusuf Nurkic who will be out for the rest of the regular season? They did win their first game without him, but playing the Phoenix Suns at home is not the best indicator. I deducted 7% to Portland’s win probability to account for this injury. The Blazers have won both meetings against Minnesota this year, and they have won 6 of the last 7 matchups overall (they went 5-2 against the spread on those games). I’m not surprised by the fact that most people are betting Portland since the general public tends to overreact to recent performances/streaks. I will soon write an article about a study I made on this topic (applied to the NHL, but I’ll look into the NBA eventually).

If you are considering placing a bet on the Blazers I would do it early in the day, while if you like the Timberwolves I’d wait until we get closer to the game because I expect the line to move a little more in favor of Portland (might drop to 1 or 1.5? We’ll see! That is just a personal opinion).

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 4, 2017 - 12:02 PM ET #55

Wow! I don’t think I’ve ever had a day with three bets rated 4 stars or more since I started posting several weeks ago. I see a lot of value in tonight’s games. Let’s dive into the details right away (no projections on Magic-Cavs):

NETS-76ERS (Pinnacle = pick'em, Prof MJ = 76ers by 2.5)

HORNETS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 4, Prof MJ = Wizards by 4.6)

RAPTORS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 2.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 1.9)

NUGGETS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Pelicans by 3, Prof MJ = Pelicans by 2.1)

BUCKS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = ,Thunder by 4.5 Prof MJ = Thunder by 3.8)

BULLS-KNICKS (Pinnacle = Bulls by 3.5, Prof MJ = Knicks by 1.5)

GRIZZLIES-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 9, Prof MJ = Spurs by 8.8)

BLAZERS-JAZZ (Pinnacle = Jazz by 6.5, Prof MJ = Jazz by 7.4)

TIMBERWOLVES-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 13.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 13.4)

MAVS-KINGS (Pinnacle = Mavs by 1, Prof MJ = Kings by 3.3)

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Knicks +3.5 against the Bulls. My projections actually have the Knicks favorites by 1.5 points. New York has won both meetings fairly easily this year: 117-104 in Chicago and 104-89 at Madison Square Garden. In fact, they have won the last 4 matchups and they are 6-2 against the spread over the last 8 contests against the Bulls. On top of that, Chicago is playing a third game in four nights. The Bulls seemed to be dead after losing 5 straight games and losing Dwayne Wade to a season-ending injury. But out of nowhere they went 7-4 since then. I truly feel like they are being overrated because of that recent stretch: I do not believe they are a .500 team without Wade. Derrick Rose is out for NewYork, while Carmelo Anthony is expected to play. At this time of writing, more than 80% of the bets have been placed on Chicago. As a contrarian, I like it.

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I like the Kings +1 against the Mavericks. I just read a tweet by Earl K. Sneed a few minutes ago mentioning Wesley Matthews will rest tonight, and that the following 4 players are questionable for various reasons: Harrison Barnes (rest) (their leading scorer), Seth Curry (shoulder), J.J. Barea (rest) and Dirk Nowitzki (right Achilles). I immediately grabbed Sacramento at +110 since I felt like the line might move in the opposite direction once most people would hear the news. My projections have the Kings favorites by 3.3, so I would still bet them with a -2 spread. Since the trade deadline, Sacramento has a 6-14 record, but they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. They have beaten the Clippers, the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves, which is quite impressive. Meanwhile, Dallas was just officially eliminated so that may be why they are considering resting players. Over the last six meetings between these two teams, Sacramento is 5-1 against the spread. 80% of the bets have gone on Dallas. I love this pick.

I recommend picking the Raptors +2.5 in Indiana because my projections see them as 1.9-point favorites. Since losing Kyle Lowry to an injury, the Raptors have been playing even better: they are 14-6 without him (a .700 record). Did you know Toronto has the best point differential in the Eastern Conference? They are averaging 107.3 points per game and allowing 103.0 for a +4.3 differential. As a comparison, Cleveland is +3.3 and Boston is +2.8. Meanwhile, the Pacers are crashing and burning: their playoff hopes are quickly disappearing. They have won a single game over their last 7 contests. The Raptors have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, but notice they went 4-4 against the spread on those games.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m taking the 76ers pick’em against the Nets. However, be aware that I’ve not been handicapping the Nets very well; it seems to me like I’ve lost 4-6 straight bets on games involving them. Philly’s lineup is depleted with injuries: Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Robert Covington are all out. It looks like Dario Saric will play, but he may be limited. The public is aware of those injuries and may be overreacting because my model has Philadelphia as 2.5-point favorites. The Nets are playing a 3rd game in 4 nights.

Good luck on your bets!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 5, 2017 - 4:36 PM ET #56

Hi guys, today I’ve got 3 profitable bets but they are all rated either 1 or 2 star(s). If you own analysis concluded that you should bet one of these teams, go ahead. Here are the projections (I will only post those involving the 3 value bets because I'm running out of time):

HEAT-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 2, Prof MJ = Heat by 1)

RAPTORS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 1, Prof MJ = Pistons by 2.1)

CAVALIERS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 4, Prof MJ = Celtics by 5)

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

I don’t necessarily have a favorite bet among the couple of 2-star bets since their estimated ROIs are 10.7% and 10.0%. But if I had to choose, I’d go with the Heat +2 in Charlotte. Miami will be without Dion Waiters once again: they are 3-5 when he’s not on the floor. Since starting the season 11-30, the Heat have gone 26-10 but they are in the midst of a moderate slump with a 2-4 record over their past six games. The stakes are high as both teams are chasing the Indiana Pacers for the last spot in the playoffs (Miami is half a game back, while the Hornets are 2 games back). After winning three straight games, the Hornets lost in Washington last night, which means tonight’s match will be the back-end of a back-to-back set (also a third game in 4 nights, a fourth game in six nights).

I’m taking another team that figures to be more rested than its opponent by going with the Pistons -1 against the Raptors. Detroit has benefited from four days of rest, which is pretty unusual! Hopefully it gave them some time to try to figure out what is going on with this team as they have won only 2 of their last 11 contests (beating Brooklyn and Phoenix). They are still in the playoff race mathematically, but have very little chance of reaching the postseason. The Raptors played last night in Indiana where they blew a 19-point lead (outscored 65-39 in the second half!). The vast majority of bets have gone on Toronto so far, which is something I always like to see (it worked on both games where I mentioned this statistic yesterday).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m going to end this write-up by picking the Celtics -4 against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is 1-9 this year when playing the second leg of back-to-back games, and they are only 19-19 on the road this season. The Cavs have won 8 of the last 10 meetings with Boston, but they are 1-3-1 against the spread over the last five. A few days ago Cleveland’s coach talked about resting players for this game, but it does not look like it’s going to happen. Both teams are currently tied for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. A great game in perspective and I’m backing the home team on this one.

I hope you enjoyed the read, have a good day!

Professor MJ

HEAT-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 2, Prof MJ = Heat by 1)

RAPTORS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 1, Prof MJ = Pistons by 2.1)

CAVALIERS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 4, Prof MJ = Celtics by 5)

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I hope you enjoyed the read, have a good day!

Professor MJ

hawk007

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 1332

Posted: Apr. 5, 2017 - 11:28 PM ET #57

Keep up the good work

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 6, 2017 - 10:17 AM ET #58

What is going on? It seems like over the past few days a larger proportion of games are offering profitable bets. Today I see value in 4 out of 5 games (no projections on Wizards-Knicks since there are too many unknown factors at the time I’m writing this report, and the line is off the board). We’ve got bets rated 4 stars twice, 3 stars once and 1 star once. Let’s see the details right away:

BULLS-76ERS (Pinnacle = Bulls by 6.5, Prof MJ = Bulls by 3.4)

NETS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Magic by 2.5, Prof MJ = Magic by 2.3)

BUCKS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 4.5, Prof MJ = Pacers by 2.3)

CELTICS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 1.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 1.5)

TIMBERWOLVES-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Blazers by 6, Prof MJ = Blazers by 3)

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I like the Sixers +6.5 against the Bulls. Yep, I’m betting against Chicago for a second straight game. We all know how depleted Philly’s lineup is (Embiid, Okafor and Covington are out, with Saric limited in minutes). I generally tend to go against the grain, and my statistical models are telling me to do so in this game. Chicago has enough talent to beat the best teams in the league, but inconsistency has defined their season and they keep losing to bad teams (as illustrated by the 100-91 loss to the Knicks a couple of days ago). I’m not surprised at all to see 77% of the bets backing Chicago. Most people are jumping on the Bulls bandwagon, which creates value on the other side. The recent 4-game winning streak by the Bulls led people to believe they were better than they truly are, in my own humble opinion. Take the 76ers with the 6.5 points.

I love the T-Wolves +6 in Portland. Love it. Here is another example of people going crazy over a certain team because they rode a nice winning streak and made the news and headlines several times. Portland won 6 consecutive games (9 of 10), but they have now lost two straight (including one in Minnesota) and most importantly they also lost their starting center Jusuf Nurkic. The only thing that worries me is the Blazers winning 20 of their last 22 home games against the Timberwolves. But Minnesota has enough talent with Towns and Wiggins leading the charge to keep up with the Blazers. I expect a tight game.

“GOOD” BETS (3 stars / 5):

My next pick goes to the Bucks +4.5 in Indiana (another underdog!?!). Milwaukee is trying to sweep the four-game series after winning the first three matchups in 2016-2017. The Bucks are 6-3 against the spread versus Indiana over the last 9 meetings. Milwaukee was flying high after winning 8 of 10 games, but has now lost two consecutive matches. The Pacers are a team that’s hard to figure out: they can be great at times and very bad on other occasions. Two days ago they were trailing by 19 against Toronto: they ended winning the game by 18!

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Finally, I’m betting the Hawks +1.5 against the Celtics. Boston may still be hurting from last night’s disappointing blowout against the Cavaliers, which really hurt their chances of grabbing the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Not only are they playing the backend of a back-to-back set, but Atlanta got three full days of rest. The Hawks have beaten the Celtics 3 times out of the last 4 meetings (they beat the spread by 9, 19.5 and 21 on those three wins!). Sure, the Hawks have lost 9 of their past 11 contests, which is why the public is underestimating them in this one. But recall they were missing Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore for several games, but both are expected to be in the lineup tonight. They are definitely getting healthier. As of 9:30 am, 91% of the bets have gone on Boston!!!

Have a good day, we’ll talk again tomorrow!

Professor MJ

Windy8899

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 2559

Posted: Apr. 6, 2017 - 6:44 PM ET #59

Thanks for sharing

monstergrit

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 4606

Posted: Apr. 6, 2017 - 6:50 PM ET #60

theclarks1

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2017

Posts: 3

Posted: Apr. 6, 2017 - 6:56 PM ET #61

Hi,

I'm new to this forum and betting on the NBA in general, but I am an avid NBA fan and follow the league and its trends closely. I am just wondering, as a beginner what is a good amount to deposit and bet when just starting out? Help and guidance would be appreciated.

Thanks

Windy8899

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 2559

Posted: Apr. 6, 2017 - 6:58 PM ET #62

You need to get out of this business if you are asking questions like that.

hawk007

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 1332

Posted: Apr. 7, 2017 - 11:27 AM ET #63

As a rule 3-5% of your BR per bet. Maybe go 5% on his 4/5 stars.

D-X

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 288

Posted: Apr. 7, 2017 - 11:32 AM ET #64

Found the wrong day to find this thread and jump and the wagon yesterday

Just my luck. Hopefully today we can turn it around!

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 10, 2017 - 2:02 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by D-X:

Found the wrong day to find this thread and jump and the wagon yesterday

Just my luck. Hopefully today we can turn it around!

Sorry about that buddy, will do my best to help you recoup your losses!

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 10, 2017 - 2:05 PM ET #66

Only three days left in the NBA regular season, but I’m still looking for value plays. Things get more complicated at this time of the year because of teams resting or limiting players. Based on the information in hand at the moment, I see a couple of 4-star bets, along with a 1-star bet. Let’s dive into the full projections:

PACERS-76ERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 9, Prof MJ = Pacers by 5.4)

NETS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 10.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 10.7)

CAVS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 4.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 4.3)

MAGIC-BULLS (Pinnacle = Bulls by 8.5, Prof MJ = Bulls by 9.1)

HORNETS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 6.5, Prof MJ = Bucks by 6.1)

WIZARDS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 3.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 0.9)

SPURS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 5.7)

ROCKETS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 7, Prof MJ = Clippers by 6.2)

JAZZ-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 10, Prof MJ = Warriors by 10.3)

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I’m going against the grain by picking the 76ers +9 against the Pacers. After going through an unsuccessful stretch, the Pacers have rebounded with 3 straight wins to position themselves in a spot where they control their own destiny. They look like a totally different team when playing at home versus on the road (28-12 at home, 12-28 on the road), they are just so inconsistent. I like the Sixers to cover the 9-point spread. Here is how the previous three matchups went: Indiana won both games at home (one in overtime, the other by a 13-point margin), while Philly won in extra time at home. 73% of the bets are going the Pacers’ way.

I like Washington +3.5 at the Pistons to spoil the party for the last ever NBA game to be played at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Wizards’ leading scorer John Wall, as well as Otto Porter may either sit out or be limited on the court. Also notice that Washington is locked into the third seed, so they have limited incentive to win the game, except getting in the playoffs on a high note. The Pistons are giving more playing time to reserve players though. Washington is 5-1 against the spread versus Detroit over the last six meetings. The Pistons are playing the backend of a back-to-back set (3rd game in 4 nights, 4th game in 6 nights).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Spurs -4.5 in Portland. San Antonio is assured to finish second in the Western Conference, while the Blazers are locked into 8th place. The Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich, has a history of resting players at various times during the season, but he’s pretty upset about recent performances and declared that nobody is going to rest in the final two games of the regular seasons. I expect the team to play very hard based on those comments. The Spurs lost any hope of grabbing the top seed by losing two of the past three games, including one against the lowly Lakers. Meanwhile, the Blazers went on an amazing 15-5 stretch which allowed them to secure a playoff spot. The motivation level won’t be as high tonight. The team is still without Jusuf Nurkic.

Thank you for reading this report guys!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 11, 2017 - 9:50 AM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by theclarks1:

Hi,

Thanks

Like another poster said, 3%-5% of your bankroll is fine. I wouldn't go above 5% ever.

What is a good amount to deposit? That depends entirely on your financial situation, I won't tell a millionaire to deposit 500$, lol. The only recommendation I can make is this: deposit an amount of money such that if you lose it all, you won't lose sleep over it.

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 11, 2017 - 9:52 AM ET #68

There are five games in the next-to-last regular season day. I can’t project the Thunder-Timberwolves game because it is unknown whether OKC will rest some of its best players considering they are locked into the 6th seed in the Western Conference (the line is also off the board, waiting to get fresh news about who plays and who doesn’t). Out of the remaining 4 games, I only found a small value bet. Here are today’s projections:

HORNETS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 7.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 7.6)

NUGGETS-MAVS (Pinnacle = Nuggets by 1, Prof MJ = Mavs by 1.7)

PELICANS-LAKERS (Pinnacle = Lakers by 3, Prof MJ = Lakers by 2.3)

SUNS-KINGS (Pinnacle = Kings by 3.5, Prof MJ = Kings by 4)

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

My only pick of the day goes to the Mavericks +1 against the Nuggets. In my opinion, the biggest factor in this game is each team’s current mindset. There is no doubt in my mind that Dallas will be much more excited to play tonight. First of all, it will be their last home game and they will be paying tribute to Tony Romo who recently announced his retirement as a Dallas Cowboys. The team certainly won’t want to let their fans down. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are coming off a devastating last-second loss to the Thunder, which officially eliminated them from playoff contention. I’m not sure they will deploy a lot of energy. Mudiay and Faried are questionable to play for Denver, while Seth Curry is out for Dallas. The home team has won all 3 meetings this season, including a 10-point win by the Mavs in Dallas. Over the last 9 matchups against Denver, Dallas is 5-3-1 against the spread.

Good luck on your plays!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 14, 2017 - 10:52 AM ET #69

Yes, the NBA playoffs are finally upon us! Most of the first-round matchups may not be very close. In the Eastern Conference, there was a fairly big gap between the top 4 and the rest of the teams (the Hawks finished in 5th place with 6 games back of the Wizards who got the 4th seed).

Will we see a rematch of the Cavaliers-Warriors finals? The Celtics and Spurs have other plans. Can the Raptors or the Wizards rise to the challenge and make a strong push to make it to the finals? According to the bookmakers, the Warriors hold a 62.7% chance of winning the title. It then drops to 20.9% for Cleveland and 11.1% for San Antonio (the Spurs are viewed as a better team than the Cavaliers, but they have a tougher road to the championship).

This report projects game #1 of each series. Enjoy the read!

PACERS-CAVALIERS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 8.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 7.7)

BUCKS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 7, Prof MJ = Raptors by 7.1)

GRIZZLIES-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 9, Prof MJ = Spurs by 9.3)

JAZZ-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Clippers by 3.5)

HAWKS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 5.9)

BLAZERS-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 14.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 14.6)

BULLS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 7.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 5.8)

THUNDER-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 7.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 7.1)

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

I’ll be honest with you; I’m not super excited about this one. But my methodology is telling me to take the Jazz +5.5 at the Clippers. Utah lost 3 of the 4 meetings this season, including two losses at the Staples Center by a 13-point margin. The Clippers have also won 8 of the past 10 matchups with the Jazz, as they went 6-4 against the spread on those games. Both teams finished the season pretty strong. LA is currently riding a 7-game winning streak and has even won 11 of their past 13 contests! The Jazz have nothing to be ashamed of after winning 8 of their final 11 games. They even beat the top 2 seeds in the Western Conference (San Antonio and Golden State) to close out the season. Sure, some starters were rested towards the end of each game, but Utah was keeping pace when all the starters were on the court.

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Bulls +7.5 in Boston. Make no mistake about it: the Celtics are a good team. But I believe you’ll agree with me that number one seeds usually strike more fear into the hearts of their opponents. They finished the season with a +2.7 point differential (average points scored per game – average points allowed per game) which has them 8th in the NBA in this category. Meanwhile, the Bulls pretty much looked dead when Dwayne Wade got hurt and the team was losing most of its games. But suddenly out of nowhere they went on to win 7 of their last 9 games to clinch a playoff spot in their regular season finale. What’s interesting with this team is they had a tendency to lose to weaker teams but had enough talent to beat the very best. They are probably happy that the playoffs only feature good teams! They swept the 4-game series against Cleveland this season. They went 2-2 against Boston. They won 2 games out of 3 against Toronto (the only loss occurring in overtime). They split the 2-game season series both with the Warriors and the Spurs. They can be dangerous. They have a fairly good amount of playoff experience, and Rajon Rondo will be playing with a chip on his shoulder by facing his former team. My gut feeling likes this pick better than the one above.

Enjoy the playoffs everyone!

Professor MJ

joel00

Prospect

Joined: May, 2016

Posts: 241

Posted: Apr. 14, 2017 - 3:13 PM ET #70

Hi, Professor, do you use different model variables/coefficients for capping playoff games?

I read some interesting (but not very new) articles about playoffs yesterday, one being that Lebron's team always outperforms compared to their regular season performance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-cavs-overrated-or-underrated/

The other mentioning about win differential is more important than point differential for predicting series winners.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-warriors-fans-every-cliche-about-the-nba-playoffs-is-true/

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 20, 2017 - 9:51 AM ET #71

Hello all! I’ve got two value bets for you tonight so let’s have a look at the projections:

CAVS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 2.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 3.3)

RAPTORS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 1.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 2.8)

SPURS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 3.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 4.7)

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

My first pick of the day goes to the Raptors +1.5 in Milwaukee. In the first two games of the series I estimated the Bucks’ chances of winning the game at 25.85%, which was in line with Vegas. Now that these teams are headed for the Bradley Center we need to make an adjustment for home-field advantage. NBA home teams generally win around 58.2% of their games (they went 718-512 this season, which is the equivalent of a .584 record). In plain words, playing at home gives you an 8.2% edge. In this case, a Toronto-Milwaukee game played on a neutral court would yield a 25.85% + 8.2% = 34.05% win probability for the Bucks, and a 34.05% + 8.2% = 42.25% win probability for a game played in Milwaukee. In terms of money line, that turns out to be 1 / 0.4225 = 2.37 (American odds: +137) which explains why I’m projecting Toronto -137 versus Milwaukee +137. The Raptors had beaten the spread on five straight occasions against the Bucks, but Milwaukee followed that up with their own 3-game winning streak against the spread. As of 9am Eastern Time, 65% of the bets are going Milwaukee’s way which is something I like (as a contrarian).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m also taking the Spurs -3.5 in Memphis. Complaining about the officials does not sound like you are in control of your emotions, but that’s exactly what Grizzlies coach David Fizdale did after Game #2. Will it motivate its players and affect the way the game is officiated tonight? We’ll find out tonight, but I don’t like that kind of stuff. The Grizzlies did beat the Spurs on their two home meetings (104-96 and 89-74) so be aware of that. San Antonio was just as great on the road (30-11) as they were at home (31-10) in 2016/2017.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

Hello all! I’ve got two value bets for you tonight so let’s have a look at the projections:

CAVS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 2.5, Prof MJ = Cavs by 3.3)

RAPTORS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 1.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 2.8)

SPURS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 3.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 4.7)

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Cheers!

Professor MJ

finsterbaby

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 21828

Posted: Apr. 20, 2017 - 10:15 AM ET #72

Gl ML, jus loaded up on Raptors keep those winners rollin. Ty

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 21, 2017 - 11:00 AM ET #73

Hello fellow NBA fans! One game caught my eye immediately, and it turns out to be a 5-star value bet. Here are the projections on all three games from tonight:

CELTICS-BULLS (Pinnacle = Bulls by 1, Prof MJ = Celtics by 1.3)

ROCKETS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Thunder by 2.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 2.8)

CLIPPERS-JAZZ (Pinnacle = Clippers by 1.5, Prof MJ = Clippers by 1)

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I like the Rockets +2.5 in Oklahoma City. A pretty strange thing is happening here. In Game #2 played in Houston my statistical models were telling me the Thunder had a 25.8% chance of winning the game, which led me to bet on them (a game in which they lost, but were still able to cover the spread). The series now shifts to OKC, so with a home-field advantage of 8.2% in the NBA the Thunder’s estimated win probability becomes 25.8% + (8.2% * 2) = 42.2% (as explained in yesterday’s report). This probability translates into the following money lines: Rockets -137 versus Thunder +137, or in terms of the spread we are projecting Houston as a 2.8-point favorite. That’s totally different from what the bookies are offering us, where they view OKC as a 2.5-point favorite. So basically we go from betting the Thunder in Houston to betting the Rockets in Oklahoma City. Go figure.

Houston has beaten OKC in the last 5 previous meetings. It gets even better when you look at their performance against the spread: they are 8-2 over the last 10 contests when facing the Thunder. These two teams played twice at Chesapeake Energy Arena this season: the Rockets lost by 2 points and won by 3 (both pretty early in the season).

Happy Friday!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 21, 2017 - 11:10 AM ET #74

We’ve got a couple of profitable bets for Saturday: they are rated 4 and 3 stars, respectively. I invite you to take a look at the full projections below:

RAPTORS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 1.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 2.8)

WIZARDS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 3, Prof MJ = Wizards by 1.6)

SPURS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4, Prof MJ = Spurs by 4.7)

WARRIORS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 6, Prof MJ = Warriors by 6.5)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I am betting the Washington Wizards +3 at the Atlanta Hawks. The Wizards have won the season series 3-1, on top of their first two series wins. They have also won in two of their last three visits in Atlanta. Over the past 7 matchups between these two opponents, the Wizards are 5-2 against the spread. Both teams are pretty healthy except Ian Mahinmi who is out for Washington, but that’s nothing to write home about.

The Hawks finished the regular season by winning their last 4 home games, but over the course of the season they weren’t that much better at home (23-18) than they were on the road (20-21). The Wizards, though, were significantly worse on the road (19-22) versus in Washington (30-11).

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

Call me stubborn if you want, but I’m at it again: I’m taking the Raptors +1.5 at the Milwaukee Bucks. Boy, what an embarrassing loss for Toronto in Game #3. Can you believe DeMar DeRozan was held to no basket? Zero. Nada. We’re talking about a guy averaging over 27 points per game! The fans in Milwaukee were loud as they are hoping for a first series win in 16 years. “We’ll make changes”, said the Raptors coach after the game. I would hope so!

As mentioned in a previous write-up, I will soon publish an article that shows evidence of teams beating the spread more often than not after losing by a big margin against the spread. This game easily qualifies, so I’m going to go with Toronto once again (my statistical models are also telling me to bet the Raptors). The Bucks have now beaten the spread on four straight occasions against the Canadian team, though.

Happy a great weekend!

Professor MJ

We’ve got a couple of profitable bets for Saturday: they are rated 4 and 3 stars, respectively. I invite you to take a look at the full projections below:

RAPTORS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 1.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 2.8)

WIZARDS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 3, Prof MJ = Wizards by 1.6)

SPURS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4, Prof MJ = Spurs by 4.7)

WARRIORS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 6, Prof MJ = Warriors by 6.5)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

Happy a great weekend!

Professor MJ

Professor-MJ

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 502

Posted: Apr. 21, 2017 - 8:01 PM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by joel00:

Hi, Professor, do you use different model variables/coefficients for capping playoff games?

I read some interesting (but not very new) articles about playoffs yesterday, one being that Lebron's team always outperforms compared to their regular season performance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-cavs-overrated-or-underrated/

The other mentioning about win differential is more important than point differential for predicting series winners.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-warriors-fans-every-cliche-about-the-nba-playoffs-is-true/

I use the same variables. But you mentioned in a private message that home-field advantage might be bigger in the playoffs (around 65$ instead of 58%). Interesting point! I will have a look at the articles you are refering to. Thanks!

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