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Professor MJ's daily NBA projections (statistical models)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:

Looking forward to some plays man! Great job professor!

thanks my friend, no projections for today (taking a break), but back tomorrow!!
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Professor-MJ:

Quote Originally Posted by For_the_win:

Looking forward to some plays man! Great job professor!
thanks my friend, no projections for today (taking a break), but back tomorrow!!

Sounds good, al ways good to take a day off! Cheers
 
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Posted: #28
It’s funny how I found no value bets out of 8 games last Friday, but now I have 5 out of 6 games tonight (the line is off the board on two games at this time of writing. I might provide projections on those games later on, but no promises). Let’s try to start the week on the right foot!

BULLS-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 7, Prof MJ = Hornets by 5.4)
MAVS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 4, Prof MJ = Raptors by 5.8)
BUCKS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 4, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 5)
WIZARDS-TWOLVES (Pinnacle = Twolves by 1, Prof MJ = Wizards by 2.9)
MAGIC-KINGS (Pinnacle = pick'em, Prof MJ = Kings by 1.5)
LAKERS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Nuggets by 12.5, Prof MJ = Nuggets by 10.8)
 
“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend going with the Wizards +1 in Minnesota. Washington is riding a 5-game winning streak (including 7 of their last 8). The Timberwolves were also on a good stretch, having won 8 of their last 12 games before losing in Milwaukee Saturday night. The only previous meeting between these two teams ended 112-105 in favor of Washington at home. The last matchup in Minnesota occurred about a year ago, where the Wizards took it 104-98. Both teams will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights, and also a fourth game in six days. I did deduct some percentage points to Washington because tonight’s match will be their 5th game in only 7 nights. Still, they are looking stronger and stronger and the acquisition of Bogdanovic has certainly helped their cause.

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

I like the Bulls +7 in Charlotte. I feel like my projections have the Bulls less of an underdog compared to the line because of two things: 1) Chicago was awful in front of national audience in Boston yesterday, scoring only 9 points in the first quarter. The general public may be overreacting following such a bad performance. 2) Yes, the Bulls will be playing the second of back-to-back games, but it’s not like Charlotte is a well-rested team either, as tonight’s game will be their 3rd in 4 days. I did penalize the Bulls for the B2B, but maybe not as much as most people did. In injury-related news, Kaminsky is doubtful to play for the Hornets since this will be the 7th day of what was called a 10-14 days injury. These two teams have met twice this year: Charlotte won 103-91 at home, while Chicago won 118-111 in Chicago. I’m a bit worried about Charlotte beating the Bulls at home on 4 straight occasions, all by double digits.

I also suggest taking the Raptors -4 versus Dallas. The Mavericks had won 6 of 7 games before losing unexpectedly at home against the lowly Suns. That might shake their confidence. The Raptors have had some trouble scoring since losing Kyle Lowry to an injury, but they hope to rebound at home after playing 5 games on the road.

The projections are telling me to go with the Lakers +12.5 in Denver. It certainly does not feel like a sure bet backing a team shuffling its lineup and giving more playing time to rookies. In the two previous meetings, Denver won by 6 and lost by 4 (both games in Los Angeles). The Nuggets have won 5 of their last 7, but have been pretty inconsistent throughout the year. The Lakers are 1-9 recently. My personal feeling likes the Bulls bet much better than the Lakers even though both have a 2-star rating. We’ll see!

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Finally, after taking the Bucks as a 4-star bet two ago, I’m going against them tonight: take Memphis -4 versus the Bucks. These two teams are headed in complete opposite directions. The Bucks are on a 6-game winning streak, while Memphis has lost 5 straight (8 of their last 11). The last 4 meetings in Memphis between these two teams have all gone in favor of the Grizzlies by the following margins: 20, 13, 9 and 10. I’m banking on Memphis to wake up tonight.

Update on my per-star record:  

- 5 STARS = 5-2
- 4 STARS = 5-2-1
- 3 STARS = 4-2
- 2 STARS = 4-5
- 1 STAR = 11-13

Overall: 29-24-1 (win percentage = 54.7%).  

On 3-4-5 star bets: 14-6-1 (win percentage = 70.0%). Notice that I have a losing record on bets rated 1 or 2 star(s), so take that into consideration when making your decision to tail my bets or not.  

Have fun watching the games tonight!  

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #29
Hello everyone, this is Professor MJ!  

We have a fairly quiet night with only 5 games, but I still found 3 profitable bets, which are rated 3 stars, 2 stars and 1 star. Let’s have a look at the detailed projections:  

PISTONS-CAVALIERS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 8, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 6.2)
THUNDER-NETS (Pinnacle = Thunder by 6, Prof MJ = Thunder by 6.9)
PACERS-KNICKS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 3, Prof MJ = Pacers by 1.8)
BLAZERS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Pelicans by 3.5, Prof MJ = Pelicans by 5.1)
76ERS-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 16.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 16.2)

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

Let’s kick off today’s picks with the Pistons +8 at Cleveland. As of 10am, 70% of the bets have gone on the Cavaliers, and yet the line moved in the opposite direction since it opened at 8.5 points and currently sits at 8. No later than 5 days ago I took Detroit +5.5 at home against those same Cavaliers as a 4-star bet (Detroit won the game 106-101). The Pistons have been playing well for a while now, having won 12 of their last 18 games. Meanwhile, the Cavs have lost 6 of 9. The injuries to Kyle Korver and Kevin Love may be catching on to them. The rest factor is also playing against Cleveland: they will be playing a third game in four nights, while Detroit is coming off two days’ rest.

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

My next pick goes to the Pelicans -3.5 versus the Blazers. Just like the previous pick, I’m going with a team playing on two days’ rest (New Orleans) against another that will be on its 3rd match in 4 days. Sure, the Blazers have won 5 of their last 6 games, but who did they beat? The answer: Phoenix, Philadelphia, Oklahoma City (twice) and Brooklyn whose combined record is 95-169 (.360 win percentage). Prior to this nice 6-game stretch, they had faced some tougher competition and went 2-7. As for the Pelicans, I feel like things are finally starting to click since the acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins. They are 3-3 over their last six games and are coming off a nice overtime win in Charlotte. A few days ago, they almost beat the Spurs (lost in overtime). It’s worth noting that Portland has beaten New Orleans in 9 of the last 11 meetings, but I still like the Pelicans in this game.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I recommend New York +3 at Madison Square Garden against Indiana. This is the fourth meeting between these teams this year. New York won 2 of those contests (118-111 in NY and 109-103 in Indiana) and lost one (123-109 in Indiana). The Pacers are a difficult team to follow: they went on a 7-game winning streak just before dropping 6 straight. Since then, they have been alternating wins and losses over the last 9 games. If the trend continues, they should lose tonight. They don’t look the same on the road (11-22) and at home (23-10). New York is playing a third game in 4 nights (Indiana has had only one day off).

Good luck for tonight!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Hello everyone, this is Professor MJ!

Things have gone in a strange way over the last 4 days. Since I started posting my NBA picks on the web, I had been much more successful with my bets rated 3-4-5 stars as opposed to 1-2 stars: 13-6-1 in the former case versus 15-18 in the latter. That was up to March 10th. Since then, I have gone 1-2 on 3+ stars versus 5-1 on 1-2 stars. Weird! The overall record now sits at 34-27-1 (55.7%).

Today I’ve got a 4-star bet for you, along with three 1-star bets. Should you trust the last three picks? Who knows? As usual you are the final decision-maker; I am only here to provide as much additional insight as I can. The projections on all games (except Lakers-Rockets because I hate games where the spread is huge) are shown below:

MAVS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 7, Prof MJ = Wizards by 9.2)
HORNETS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 3, Prof MJ = Pacers by 2.2)
TIMBERWOLVES-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 6, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.9)
PELICANS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 6.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 5.5)
JAZZ-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Jazz by 2.5, Prof MJ = Jazz by 3.1)
GRIZZLIES-BULLS (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 2.5, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 2.4)
BLAZERS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 11.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 12.8)
KINGS-SUNS (Pinnacle = Suns by 5.5, Prof MJ = Suns by 5.2)
BUCKS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 7.5, Prof MJ = Clippers by 6.4)


“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend betting the Wizards -7 versus Dallas. The Mavs second-highest scorer, Wesley Matthews, will be a game-time decision because of a calf injury. This morning he said “You guys will never know how much pain I’m in”. If I’m a Mavericks fan, I don’t like the sound of it. Even though he will be playing tonight, it looks like he won’t be near 100%. The Mavs went on a nice 7-game stretch where they won 6 of them. However, the followed that up by losing at home to the lowly Suns and losing decisively 100-78 in Toronto against a minus-Lowry Raptors team. To me, that’s a red flag that they might be headed in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the Wizards had won 7 of their last 8 games before dropping their last game in Minnesota. They are a much superior team than Dallas and I expect them to rebound tonight. The only thing I don’t like about this matchup is Dallas beating the Wizards in 9 of the last 10 meetings.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

For a second straight game, I’m going with the Pelicans +6.5 in Miami. New Orleans is playing the second of back-to-back games, but they benefited from two days’ rest before that so it’s not as bad. As I said yesterday, the Pelicans are finally showing signs of a team that’s jelling since the acquisition of Cousins. They have won 4 of their last 7 games and if you take a closer look at their losses, they weren’t bad at all: 94-87 versus Toronto, 88-83 in Utah and 101-98 in overtime against a great Spurs team. So basically over the last 7 games their worst outing was a 7-point loss. The Heat had won 8 of 10 before dropping their last match in Indiana. Miami won 6 of the last 7 home games against New Orleans, but the last two games weren’t bad performances by the Pelicans: a loss in overtime, and a 105-91 win.

I like the Spurs -11.5 versus the Blazers. Wow, you don’t get to see me pick such a big favorite very often, but it’s the case tonight. There are two main reasons: 1) the Spurs’ second-highest scorer, LaMarcus Aldridge, won’t have any restrictions tonight after undergoing some testing of his heart; 2) the Blazers will be dog-tired, and it’s not good news whenever you are playing such a great team like the Spurs. Not only is it a second game in as many nights for Portland, but tonight’s game will be their 4th in 5 days!!! You don’t see that very often in the NBA. San Antonio has won 11 of their last 12 games overall, and has also beaten Portland in the last 5 meetings.

It seems like these days I’m always involved in the Milwaukee Bucks’ games, either betting on them or against them. Tonight I’m picking the Bucks +7.5 at the Clippers. Both teams faced each other 12 days ago, where Milwaukee took it 112-101 at home. The Bucks saw their 6-game winning streak snapped two days ago in Memphis. The Clippers are also coming off a loss after getting some success (they had won 4 of 5). Khris Middleton is slowly finding his groove back after missing the first 3 months of the season, and it has shown some results in the wins column for Milwaukee.

Cheers!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #32
Hello everyone, Professor MJ back for my daily NBA projections! There are 6 games in the NBA tonight. It has been a while since I last had a 5-star bet (the last one came on March 8th with the Raptors +2 in New Orleans), but we have one today! My record on 3+ stars has gone down to 14-9-1 due to a 3-game losing streak. I hope to snap the skid tonight!

JAZZ-CAVS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 7, Prof MJ = Cavs by 6.6)
THUNDER-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 2.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 3.2)
NETS-KNICKS (Pinnacle = Knicks by 4, Prof MJ = Knicks by 7.0)
GRIZZLIES-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 3.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 4.9)
CLIPPERS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Nuggets by 4, Prof MJ = Nuggets by 4.0)
MAGIC-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 13.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 13.6)

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m going with New York -4 versus Brooklyn. Lots of key injuries to report. On the Nets’ side, Sean Kilpatrick and Joe Harris have officially been ruled out. As for Jeremy Lin, he is expected to play. He rolled an ankle during his last game two days ago and briefly left the game, but he came back to finish it. He also participated in yesterday’s practice, so it looks like he’s ready to go (not sure if he’s going to be affected by the injury though). The Knicks will be missing two players: Joakim Noah (who has been out for a while now) and Kristaps Porzingis (not officially out yet, but very unlikely to play). Overall all of those injuries are more detrimental to New York, and that has been taken into account when making the projections. Brooklyn has shown clear signs of improvement with 3 wins in their last 8 games, including a 120-112 victory over the Knicks four days ago in Brooklyn. The two previous meetings both went in the Knicks’ favor: 95-90 in Brooklyn and 110-96 in New York. As a matter of fact, the Knicks have won the last 3 home matchups versus the Nets.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’ll go with Atlanta -3.5 against the Grizzlies. The rest factor is definitely in favor of the Hawks: they benefited from two days’ rest, while Memphis was playing last night (it will also be their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days). Chandler Parsons may be out for the season for Memphis. The Hawks just beat them 107-90 on the road. The last meeting in Atlanta occurred almost exactly one year ago, where the Hawks won 95-83. They are 5-4 over their last 9 games, but look at the teams that beat them: San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland and Indiana. All great/good teams! As for Memphis, they went on an ugly 5-game skid, but managed to win their last two games.

Thanks a lot for reading!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #33
Good Friday everyone! Out of 8 games, I have two recommended bets: one is rated 4 stars, while the other is a 1-star bet. Let’s see the details!

MAVS-76ERS (Pinnacle = Mavs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Mavs by 4.5)
BULLS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 7.5, Prof MJ = Wizards by 10.3)
CELTICS-NETS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 8, Prof MJ = Celtics by 7.5)
RAPTORS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 3.5, Prof MJ = Pistons by 3.8)
ROCKETS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 5.7)
TIMBERWOLVES-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 4.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 5.7)
MAGIC-SUNS (Pinnacle = Suns by 3, Prof MJ = Suns by 2.4)
BUCKS-LAKERS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 7, Prof MJ = Bucks by 6.7)


“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

My first pick goes to Washington -7.5 against Chicago. The Bulls received a tough blow: Dwayne Wade is out for the season with a fractured elbow. On the Wizards’ side, one of their stars has injury concerns too, but things are not nearly as bad: John Wall said he has a 50-50 chance of playing tonight because of a foot injury. Washington has won 2 of the 3 meetings this year: they lost 106-95 in Chicago back in November, won 107-97 in Chicago and won 101-99 at home. In fact, Washington has beaten Chicago 6 times out of the last 9 matchups. The Wizards went on a 22-5 stretch, but have now lost their past two games (in Minnesota and at home against Dallas). I can’t imagine them taking this game lightly. Meanwhile, the Bulls’ mindset might be affected from the loss of Wade for the rest of the year. They have won only 2 of their past 9 games.


“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m going with Miami -4.5 versus the Timberwolves. Minnesota’s defense has improved vastly of late, but the loss of Nemanja Bjelica might hurt. It must be noted that the Timberwolves have gone 4-3 in the last 7 games against great teams: Utah, San Antonio, LA Clippers, Golden State, Milwaukee, Washington and Boston. Pretty impressive! However, the Heat has been even more impressive. The team went on a bad 4-18 stretch, and then things changed drastically on January 17. They have gone 22-5 since then. What’s strange is all 5 losses were against average teams at best: Philadelphia, Dallas, Indiana and Orlando twice. In the only previous matchup this season, Miami took it 115-113 in Minnesota.


Here are a couple of games to keep track of:

- Bet the Magic if the line moves to +3.5 in Phoenix. They are playing the second leg of back-to-back games, but they got two days’ rest prior to that. Also, the injury bug is hitting the Suns: their second-highest scorer Eric Bledsoe is out, their fourth-highest scorer Brandon Knight is doubtful and Tyson Chandler (their best center) is being benched quite often.

- I would also pick the Rockets if the line moves to -4.5 in New Orleans.

Have a good weekend!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #34
Hello everyone, it’s good to be back for more NBA projections on this great Monday morning! At this time of writing, tonight’s 7 games are currently offering a 3-star bet, as well as a 1-star bet. You will find all the details below:

HAWKS-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 5.5, Prof MJ = Hornets by 5.7)
76ERS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Magic by 5, Prof MJ = Magic by 4.8)
JAZZ-PACERS (Pinnacle = Jazz by 2.5, Prof MJ = Jazz by 0.6)
WIZARDS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 2, Prof MJ = Celtics by 1.3)
NUGGETS-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 9, Prof MJ = Rockets by 8.3)
WARRIORS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Warriors by 1.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 2.7)
KNICKS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 11, Prof MJ = Clippers by 11)


“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

My first pick of the week goes to the Pacers +2.5 against the Jazz. Both Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors are question marks heading into this matchup (both struggling with knee injuries). Utah has dropped two games in a row (3 of their past 5). In the only previous meeting this season, the Jazz won 109-100 on their home court. As a matter of fact, they have beaten Indiana 3 straight times, but had lost 6 of 7 prior to that run. The Pacers have looked totally different at home (24-10) versus on the road (11-24). They are 4-11 when playing the second of back-to-back games this year, but notice they benefited from 3 full days of rest before yesterday’s game (so I’m hoping they still have a lot of energy!).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m going with Golden State -1.5 in Oklahoma City. The Warriors have easily won all 3 games against the Thunder in 2016-2017: by 26 and 21-point margins at home, and by a 16-point margin on the road. Following the injury to Kevin Durant, Golden State went 2-5 but they are now riding a 3-game winning streak. The Thunder is a streaky team: they won 4 straight games, followed by a 4-game skid, which was followed by the current 5-game winning streak. The Warriors have beaten OKC six consecutive times (including playoff games). The crowd won’t be as hostile with Durant on the sidelines (though I’m sure they will still be pumped up!). After sitting out a game in San Antonio, Stephen Curry is slowly gaining his MVP form back as the team.

Thank you for reading this report and enjoy the games!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #35
Hello all! Surprisingly, we have 4 profitable NBA bets out of 8 games today. They are rated 4, 3, 2 and 1 star(s). The full projections are shown below:

BULLS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 6.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 7.7)
PISTONS-NETS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 5.5, Prof MJ = Pistons by 5.8)
SUNS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 12, Prof MJ = Heat by 12.2)
GRIZZLIES-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Pelicans by 2.5, Prof MJ = Pelicans by 2)
WARRIORS-MAVERICKS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 4.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 2.6)
SPURS-TIMBERWOLVES (Pinnacle = Spurs by 5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 6.5)
BUCKS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Blazers by 5, Prof MJ = Blazers by 2.3)
CLIPPERS-LAKERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 9, Prof MJ = Clippers by 8.8)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I like the Bucks +5 in Portland. Milwaukee’s leading scorer Giannis Antetokounmpo tweaked his ankle last Saturday and left the game, but rumours say he should be ready to go tonight. I still deducted 3% to the Bucks’ win probability to account for the fact he may miss the game, or be affected by the injury. When these two teams met earlier this year, the Bucks prevailed 115-107 at home. Milwaukee beat the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings against the Blazers. The Bucks have only lost 2 of their last 10 games, and those losses came in Memphis and in Golden State, so nothing to be ashamed of. Portland has also won 8 of its last 10 matches and is doing his best to try to qualify for the playoffs. The Blazers are playing a third game in four nights, while Milwaukee got 2 days’ rest.

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

After picking the Warriors last night in Oklahoma City, this time I’m betting against them as I go with the Mavericks +4.5 versus Golden State. Fatigue should be a factor since the Warriors are not only on the second leg of back-to-back games, but also a 3rd game in 4 days (4th in 6 days). I feel like the betting public may be overreacting to yesterday’s win in OKC. Yes, Golden State has beaten Dallas on 5 straight occasions, but 4 of them were at home.

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I recommend taking the Spurs -5 in Minnesota, despite the fact that San Antonio will be playing a third game in 4 nights. It’s pretty interesting to note that the Spurs have won their last 5 games in Minnesota! They have won all 3 matchups this year against the T-Wolves. Minnesota has been much better at home, but San Antonio has been equally good on the road as at home. After going on a nice 6-2 stretch, the Timberwolves have now dropped 4 of their last 5 contests. They have lost their last 3 games by an average margin of 15 points.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

My final pick for today goes to the Raptors -6.5 against the Bulls. Both teams are missing a key piece from their lineup: Dwayne Wade for Chicago and Kyle Lowry for the Canadian team. Chicago fans heaved a sigh of relief after beating Utah last Saturday since they had lost 7 of their last 8 games. They are now facing a team they have dominated over the last several years, winning 11 straight against Toronto! Unbelievable. I’m betting on this trend to end tonight. The Raptors came close to ending the skid earlier this year, but they blew a 19-point lead and lost in overtime.

Have a great day everyone!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #36
Hi guys, today I’ve got a 4-star value bet, as well as a couple of 1-star bet. As usual, let’s start with the complete projections in numbers followed by some additional comments about the games where I see a profitable bet:

HORNETS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Hornets by 5, Prof MJ = Hornets by 4.1)
PACERS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 7.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.9)
PISTONS-BULLS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 1.5, Prof MJ = Pistons by 0.8)
76ERS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Thunder by 11, Prof MJ = Thunder by 10.4)
HAWKS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 7, Prof MJ = Wizards by 9.7)
CAVALIERS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 3.5, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 4.7)
BUCKS-KINGS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 4, Prof MJ = Bucks by 3.7)
KNICKS-JAZZ (Pinnacle = Jazz by 10.5, Prof MJ = Jazz by 9.2)


“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

The best value bet of the day goes to the Wizards -7 against the Hawks. Both teams have been struggling of late. Washington was doing great until March 13th: they have won a single game in 5 tries since that date. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been alternating series of wins and losses: lost 3, won 2, lost 3, won 3 and lost 4 (their current streak). With their leading scorer Paul Millsap out, as well as their starting small forward Kent Bazemore, things aren’t looking great in Atlanta. The Wizards have beaten the Hawks in 2 out of 3 meetings this season. The latest game ended by a decisive 112-86 Washington win on the road.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

  • I’m taking the Cavaliers -3.5 in Denver. The latest reports point out to a possible return in action for Kyle Korver. He got in a full practice yesterday and he mentioned feeling a lot better and well-rested. On the Denver side, their leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is unlikely to play (he is listed as “doubtful”). After missing 4 games, Wilson Chandler may be back tonight, but no confirmation as of yet. Cleveland has had an additional day of rest. I’m a bit worried about most of the money being wagered on Cleveland, and yet the line moved in the opposite direction (opened at 4, now at 3.5). In the only previous meeting in 2016-2017, Cleveland took it easily 125-109 at home. Not only have the Cavs won the last 3 meetings overall, but they beat the Nuggets in Denver on three straight contests. In fact, Cleveland is 5-1-1 against the spread versus Denver over the past 7 matchups.
  • Finally, I’m picking the Knicks +10.5 in Utah. No major injuries on both sides (Noah for New York, Favors and Mack for Utah). The Jazz won by 5 points at Madison Square Garden early in the season. The Knicks are 7-3 against the spread versus Utah since 2012. They have lost 5 of their past 6 games overall, while Utah is on a 3-game skid (in which they averaged only 89.7 points per game).

Enjoy the games!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #37
GL tonight
 
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Posted: #38
Only 5 games on the NBA menu tonight, and I have two recommended bets. Please have a look at the details below:

SUNS-NETS (Pinnacle = Nets by 4, Prof MJ = Nets by 4.8)
RAPTORS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 4.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 4.7)
CLIPPERS-MAVERICKS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 4.5, Prof MJ = Clippers by 2.3)
GRIZZLIES-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 8, Prof MJ = Spurs by 8.3)
KNICKS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Blazers by 11.5, Prof MJ = Blazers by 9.4)

“GOOD” BETS (3 stars / 5):

My first suggestion is to take the Mavericks +4.5 against the Clippers. These teams have split the first two meetings this year, each team surprisingly winning on the road (the Clippers won by 20 in Dallas, while the Mavs won by a 2-point margin in LA). The Clippers should feel some fatigue as they will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. They are riding a 3-game winning streak after going through a difficult 3-game skid. After facing easier competition with Philadelphia and Brooklyn, the Mavs hit a wall when they got beaten up by Golden State two days ago. How will they react tonight? They must win this game since they are 3.5 games back from the 8th seed. 70% of the money has gone on Los Angeles, which pushed the line from 3.5 to 4.5. Seth Curry is questionable for Dallas.

The line opened with the Blazers as 9.5-point favorites, and it now stands at 11.5. I’m betting the Knicks +11.5 in Portland. I picked New York last night as 10.5-point underdogs in Utah. Basically, Vegas is telling us that the Knicks are less likely to beat a 32-38 team (Portland) on the second night of back-to-back games (perhaps without Derrick Rose), than they were to beat a 44-28 team (Utah) when rested. Make your own opinion about that, but I believe it’s normal that I am picking New York tonight if I was picking them last night in such conditions. Going back to the Derrick Rose situation, he is questionable to play since he left the arena with a brace and a noticeable limp. Notice that the Blazers cannot be considered a totally rested team either since they will be playing a fourth game in six days. The only previous matchup in 2016-2017 occurred back in November where the Knicks won 107-103 at Madison Square Garden. The last meeting in Portland ended by a 2-point win by New York. One major warning about this game: Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek mentioned he might rest veteran players on back-to-back games, so there is a chance Carmelo Anthony doesn’t play (or is limited in terms of minutes). Be aware of it.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #39
Im not sure about Knicks but GL 
 
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Posted: #40
Only 2 profitable bets out of 10 games on this Friday night and both are rated 1-star. I wish there were more value bets, but you simply can’t force things to happen! Sometimes the best decision you can make is to stay away from some games you were considering betting. Let’s have a look at the full projections!

NETS-WIZARDS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 12, Prof MJ = Wizards by 11.2)
CAVS-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Cavs by 3, Prof MJ = Cavs by 2.6)
PISTONS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Pistons by 4, Prof MJ = Pistons by 2.8)
NUGGETS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 2, Prof MJ = Pacers by 2.2)
SUNS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 15.5, Prof MJ = Celtics by 15.8)
76ERS-BULLS (Pinnacle = Bulls by 6.5, Prof MJ = Bulls by 5.2)
HAWKS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 6, Prof MJ = Bucks by 5.2)
PELICANS-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 7.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 8.1)
TIMBERWOLVES-LAKERS (Pinnacle = Timberwolves by 6, Prof MJ = Timberwolves by 6.2)
KINGS-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 17.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 18.1)

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

The bet I like the most today (even though I must admit I’m not super excited about it either) is Philadelphia +6.5 in Chicago. The Sixers have a .366 record overall and have gone 9-17 since their star player Joel Embiid went down to an injury. That’s a .346 record so surprisingly they haven’t regressed as much as you would have anticipated. I see them as a .300 – .330 team. On the other hand, the Bulls have a .472 record but without Dwayne Wade and considering they have lost Gibson and McDermott via trade a month ago, I believe they are roughly a .400 team. Based on these assumptions and also taking into account the fact that Chicago may be a little more tired than Philadelphia (3rd game in 4 nights for the Bulls versus 4th game in 6 days for the Sixers), my final projections view the Bulls as 5.2-point favorites. That being said, you may be worried by the Bulls 12-game winning streak over Philadelphia… Will the streak end tonight, just like the Raptors were able to snap an 11-game skid against those same Chicago Bulls? The 76ers are coming off a disappointing 122-97 loss at Oklahoma City. Prior to that game, they had been playing fairly well over a 5-game stretch, where they went 3-2 with one of the losses in overtime and the other by a 2-point margin in Golden State!

My next and final pick of the day goes to Orlando +4 against Detroit. Both teams have been struggling recently, and I feel like it usually leads to close tight games (which is good for the underdog). The Magic went through a 7-game stretch where they lost all but one. However, they followed that up with two straight wins, which was snapped two days ago by a 109-102 loss against the Hornets. The Pistons are sitting in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, only one game back from the final playoff spot. They did not help their own cause by dropping 5 of their last 6 contests (with their only win at home against an awful Suns’ team). These two teams met twice this year, both in Detroit. The Pistons won the first match 108-82 in October, while the Magic got revenge with a 98-92 victory in December. Detroit is only 11-24 on the road.

A few notes about other games:

- Although I’m not making it an official pick, I kind of like the Pelicans +7.5 in Houston. My projections have the Rockets winning by 8.1 points, so why do I like New Orleans? Just a gut feeling, but also the fact that I feel like the motivation level will be much higher for the Pelicans. If you look at the standings, the Rockets are pretty much locked into 3rd place: they are 6 games back of second place, and hold a 5.5-game lead over 4th place. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have little hope of making the playoffs (4 games back of the 8th seed), but a three-game winning streak has the team dreaming a little bit. Perhaps things are finally clicking for good between stars Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins? As of 11am, 69% of the bets on the spread and 85% of the money line bets have gone on Houston. The line has only moved by 0.5 point. For those of you who have been following me, you know I’m more of a contrarian, so I like seeing such numbers.

- A very interesting game will be taking place in Milwaukee tonight as the Hawks visit the Bucks. These teams are going in totally opposite directions: the Hawks have lost 5 straight, while the Bucks have won 10 of their last 12 games. The injuries to Millsap and Bazemore won’t help Atlanta rebound, but it’s interesting to note that the Hawks have beaten the Bucks on four straight occasions (7 of the past 9 meetings). If Milwaukee wins tonight, they would be tied with Atlanta in 5th place.

- What is going on with the Cavaliers? All of their injured players are back on the court, and yet the team is struggling. It may take a bit of time for the team to get in a groove? Who knows? I’m anxious to see what happens tonight in Charlotte against a very motivated Hornets squad who is only 2.5 games back from the final playoff spot (thanks to a 3-game winning streak). Cleveland has won 5 straight matchups against Charlotte (9 of the past 10). The public is betting HEAVY on Cleveland, as over 90% of the bets have gone their way. I’m surprised the line has only moved by half a point in such circumstances!

Have a good weekend!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Fg_Zero:

Im not sure about Knicks but GL 

Nice call my friend! I wasn't sure about this bet either, lol. I mentioned being worried they might rest some players, and they did. Should have listened.
 
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Posted: #42
Good Monday morning everyone! Today I am recommending a 4-star bet on the much anticipated game between the Cavaliers and the Spurs, as well as a 1-star bet on the Pistons-Knicks game. You will find the full details below:

MAGIC-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 8.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 8.3)
PISTONS-KNICKS (Pinnacle = Pistons by 2, Prof MJ = Pistons by 3.2)
CAVALIERS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 7.5)
THUNDER-MAVERICKS (Pinnacle = Thunder by 1, Prof MJ = Thunder by 0.4)
GRIZZLIES-KINGS (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 6, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 6.7)
PELICANS-JAZZ (Pinnacle = Jazz by 7, Prof MJ = Jazz by 6.9)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I am taking the Spurs -4.5 against the Cavaliers. Cleveland has really been struggling recently and they have now seen Boston tie them for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Over their last 16 games, they have gone 7-9. Their injured players are back in action, but the team still doesn’t look like its old self. Meanwhile, San Antonio is on a 15-3 stretch (including a current 4-game winning streak). Here is a pretty interesting fact about the Spurs: they are the first team in over 35 years to beat every other squad in the league in three consecutive seasons. The Cavaliers defense has been awful in the last five games, as they have allowed an average of 117 points per game. As of noon, the bets have been pretty balanced on either team.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

My next and final bet of the day goes to the Pistons -2 in New York. The Knicks’ highest scorer, Carmelo Anthony, has been bothered by a sore knee which made him miss the team’s last two contests. Why play him if he is hurt? The Knicks may be more interested in seeing younger players on the court to prepare for next season (and maybe improve draft position). Both teams are struggling, as the Pistons have lost 3 straight while the Knicks are on a 5-game losing streak. However, Detroit still has a shot at the playoffs (only one game back from the 8th position) but they must wake up very soon and it has to start tonight against a weaker opponent. The first 3 meetings this year have ended with the home team getting the W. I do expect this game to be a struggle with Detroit winning by a close margin, so don’t bet your house, wife and kids on this game.

Have a good day!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #43
GL!
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by jtelemaq:

GL!

Thanks!
 
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Posted: #46
Hi guys, today I’ve got a couple of value bets, each rated 1 star. I’m also going to make a few comments about other games, just in case you were considering betting them. You will find the full report below:

BUCKS-HORNETS (Pinnacle = Hornets by 3.5, Prof MJ = Hornets by 3.2)
TIMBERWOLVES-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 4.5, Prof MJ = Pacers by 4.2)
76ERS-NETS (Pinnacle = Nets by 3, Prof MJ = Nets by 4.1)
SUNS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 7.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 7.6)
HEAT-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Heat by 2.5, Prof MJ = Heat by 3.6)
WARRIORS-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 1.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 1.3)
NUGGETS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Blazers by 2, Prof MJ = Blazers by 2)
WIZARDS-LAKERS (Pinnacle = Wizards by 9, Prof MJ = Wizards by 9)

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

First, I’m taking the Nets -3 against the 76ers, despite Brooklyn playing a fourth game in six nights. The Nets have improved a lot since going through an awful 1-27 stretch: they have won 7 of their past 15 games (a .467 record). Meanwhile, the Sixers have not done as bad as you’d expected since losing their star player, Joel Embiid: they have been 10-18 (a .357 record, which is not that much lower than what their record was prior to Embiid’s injury). Philly won both previous meetings this year (by a single point at home and by 10 points on the road, but Embiid took part of both games). One fact that might worry you if you are betting Brooklyn: the Sixers are a league-high 46-27 against the spread in 2016-2017. However, I do like the fact that most of the money is going on Philadelphia, and yet the line moved half a point in favor of the Nets.

My final pick of the day goes to the Heat -2.5 in Detroit. Both teams will be missing an important part of their offense: Dion Waiters for Miami, Reggie Jackson for Detroit. The Pistons are on the second leg of back-to-back games after yet another bad performance yesterday (a 109-95 loss in New York). They are quickly falling out of the playoff race after losing 7 of their past 8 contests. Miami has won 21 of the last 30 meetings with Detroit.

A few words about other games (non-official picks):

- If you forced me to pick a team in the Minnesota-Indiana game, I’d go with the Timberwolves +4.5 without hesitation. 60% of the money has gone on Indiana, but the line dropped by half a point. It looks like sharp bettors are taking Minnesota. One could argue that both teams are struggling (Minnesota for sure as they have lost six straight, while Indiana has been mediocre), and I have been noticing more and more a tendency for underdogs to beat the spread when two struggling teams meet.

- I would also go with the Rockets -1.5 versus the Warriors. Golden State seems to have found his rhythm back, as they are riding a 7-game winning streak. They are now 9-5 since losing Kevin Durant to an injury, but notice they have been 4-4 on the road. Playing in Houston won’t be easy. I’m a bit worried about Harden playing with an injured wrist and Ryan Anderson missing the game though. Around 70% of the bets have gone on the Warriors, but again the line moved by half a point in the opposite direction. Golden State is 33-38 against the spread this season versus 42-31 for the Rockets.

Cheers!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #47
What game your strongest?



 
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Posted: #48
Hi everyone, today I’ve got a couple of 4-star bets as well as two more 1-star bets. I am not projecting the Jazz-Kings game because the line is off the board and there are too many uncertain factors at this time (including whether Gordon Hayward will play or not). Let’s run the numbers on the remaining 9 games!

HAWKS-76ERS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 1, Prof MJ = 76ers by 0.6)
THUNDER-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Thunder by 6, Prof MJ = Thunder by 3.3)
BUCKS-CELTICS (Pinnacle = Celtics by 8, Prof MJ = Celtics by 6.9)
HORNETS-RAPTORS (Pinnacle = Raptors by 6.5, Prof MJ = Raptors by 6.9)
HEAT-KNICKS (Pinnacle = Heat by 3, Prof MJ = Heat by 2.7)
PACERS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 5, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 5.3)
MAVS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Pelicans by 4.5, Prof MJ = Pelicans by 2.7)
WARRIORS-SPURS (Pinnacle = Spurs by 4.5, Prof MJ = Spurs by 5.6)
WIZARDS-CLIPPERS (Pinnacle = Clippers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Clippers by 4.7)

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Mavericks +4.5 in New Orleans. The big question mark is if DeMarcus Cousins will be able to play for the Pelicans tonight or if he’ll miss a third straight game. My projected lines were made assuming he has a 50-50 chance of playing. If he does, my revised lines would be Mavericks +4 versus Pelicans -4, which would make it a no bet unless the line moves to Dallas at least +5.5. Seth Curry is also questionable for the Mavs, but the impact is relatively minor here. The Pelicans have won their last 4 home games against tough opposition overall: Memphis, Minnesota, Houston and Portland. Each by at least a 13-point margin. Ouch. That’s a cause for concern when betting Dallas. The Mavs have won 2 of the 3 meetings this year (each team won on its own court). Tonight’s match will be the Pelicans’ third game in four nights.

My next pick goes to Orlando +6 at home against Oklahoma City. The Magic are 6-9 since the trade deadline, which is a better record than what they had prior to that date. They have won 3 of their last 5 contests overall. They managed to upset the Thunder on the road 119-117 last November. The Magic have beaten the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings with OKC. The Thunder are coming off an exciting win after scoring the last 14 points of the game to beat Dallas 92-91. Please note that 77% of the bets on the spread have gone on the Thunder.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

I like the Bucks +8 in Boston. Both teams are doing very well these days, but the line is inflated because of the fatigue factor which clearly favors the Celtics. They are coming off two days of rest, while Milwaukee is playing the second of back-to-back games (also a third game in 4 days, a fourth game in 6 nights). Based on some studies I read about the topic, I multiplied the Bucks’ estimated win probability by 78% to get my final projection. More specifically, I had Milwaukee’s chances of winning the game at 33.7% but it was lowered to 33.7% * 0.78 = 26.3% to account for tiredness. Still, I believe the Bucks will cover and could even win the game (even though it won’t be an easy task). Boston was finally able to grab the top spot in the Eastern Conference, thanks to a 4-game winning streak combined with a bad stretch for Cleveland. The only previous matchup between these two teams occurred on January 28 and we can only hope for a similar game as Boston won in overtime.

Finally (but not least!), I am recommending to take the Spurs -4.5 against the Warriors. Golden State is in a similar situation to Milwaukee regarding the fatigue factor, the only difference being that their opponent won’t be playing on 2 days’ rest (only 1). And this time I’m betting against the more tired team. Draymond Green is probable to play despite injuring his ankle yesterday. The Warriors are riding an 8-game winning streak, while the Spurs have won 5 straight. San Antonio needs to win this game if they want to have any chance of grabbing the #1 seed in the Western Conference (they are currently 2.5 games back of Golden State). The first two meetings were clearly in favor of Popovich’s squad, as they won 129-100 on the road and 107-85 at home 18 days ago (a game in which both teams were missing several key players). Can you believe that San Antonio has won 34 of the last 35 meetings at home against the Warriors (the only loss happened last season)?

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ
 
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Posted: #49
Gonna tail you on the Mavs.  Line has moved to +6.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by hawk007:

Gonna tail you on the Mavs.  Line has moved to +6.


Nice win 
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