Playoff Time (Finals version)

LA on offense:  i think the Lakers will try a lot of different looks to take advantage of their athleticism... Kobe will draw a lot of attention, and will force the Celtics to play Tony Allen extended minutes... Kobe and Fisher will both run offensive sets, and the Lakers will try to run a fast tempo to keep Boston out of their halfcourt sets... all 5 Boston starters are very strong defensively...

I pretty much covered everything on the above analysis no reason to get into it again here.

mismatches...

• nobody can shutdown Kobe one-on-one... Pierce did a great job on Kobe and Lebron in 2008, and did a great job on Lebron against this year... Celtics will have to shuffle defenders to absorb fouls...
• will be a game between the Cs ability to help on Kobe and the Lakers ability to find the open man rotating... they are an excellent passing team... hitting open shots will be key for guys like Artest and Fisher...
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• Kobe's gonna be Kobe, it is gonna be on Gasol to play big and tough, and the other guys to knock down shots. Lakers are shooting at a very high % team wise right now, and it's gonna be alot for the Celtics to trip them up. Celtics are not as fluid a offense as Lakers, and tend to get into clock trouble and scorless droughts. Not good if it comes down to a game of runs and defensive stops, as i think the Lakers will Shoot better than the celtics for the series, and get the stops they need.

Boston bench:  if Sheed is healthy, he will be a factor... Boston has a pretty big edge in bench play, if health is not an issue... Boston can count on quality play from Wallace, Davis, Tony Allen, Robinson and Daniels when they are on the court... they rely on the first 3 guys to carry big roles, even in crunch time... depth allows Boston a little extra leeway on fouls...

I imagine Sheed will see alot of time on Odom and I doubt he will 100% healthy which has ineffective written all over it. Odom can come out on D  and neutralize his 3 ball, all Sheed is good for these days is a timely 3 and some mid range jumpers. A poor mans Robert Horry if you will. Nate has only started playing recently and I think he's too excitable, good in short doses but any extended minutes can neutralize and stall the offense. he is more off than on. Celtics bench is no better than the lakers, the lakers already faced the best bench play in the playoff in the Suns. I don't see the celtics bench players really hurting them.

Lakers bench:  Odom is the story... he brings instant offense, and allows Phil to essentially use a 6-man lineup, with Odom for offense and Artest for derense... i also expect to see a big lineup with Fisher on the bench, or a small lineup with Bynum on the bench... other bench players can provide a lift when on, but are eratic, and how much will Phil be able to depend on them to give quality minutes against Boston's bench players is an unknown...

You said it the Lakers don't really rely on their bench that much. All they need is a little solid defense and some chip ins from Farmar Sasha and Brown.  Farmar has been shooting well but is a defensive liability. i like Sasha getting more minutes as he is a more effective defender. But like I said I think Lakers bench gets the edge because of Odom's ability to be so effective. Like you said essentially a 6th starter.

Intangibles...

Floor generals:  both defenses (and coaches) will be switching up their looks and playing a veritable chess match trying to find favorable matchups... whichever team can adjust on the fly and find the mismatches on offense should do well... Rondo gives Boston a big edge here, as he has proven to be an extension of Rivers on the court...

Wow really, so if Kobe and Rondo are standing at halfcourt, and I told you hey Pick one of these 2 guys to lead your team, and i'll pick 2nd. If you beat my team I'll give you a million bucks you're taking Rondo??!!! The edge goes to the Lakers all day, call Kobe selfish all you want but he has become a hell of a leader and teammate the last 2-3 years, and no one better I want leading my team with everything on the line.

Revenge:  i always say this is an overrated angle, but clearly here it has merit... not just because Boston beat LA two years ago in the Finals... but because (a) they did it in such a humiliating blowout fashion, and (b) the bus incident outside the stadium afterwards clearly fueled the fire in a big way... i considered LA to be a team that needed something to motivate them, and the Celtics are the one thing that can do that...

No doubt you nailed it here. You won;t see one game with the Lakers half stepping or losing focus here. Everyone but Ron and Brown were on this team for the Finals Series. You will see the most focused and together Laker team all season here. This is extremely personal and intense series for the Lakers and you will see it all left on the court. When the lakers are focused and hitting on all cylinders they are lights out unbeatable.

Toughness:  until proven otherwise, the Lakers are not a tough team... they are big, but not tough... the Celtics, on the other hand, set the standard for defense and toughness in the NBA right now... can LA take that revenge factor and convert it into the mental toughness they need? 

Lakers will be plenty tough, you saw it in the rockets series last year. When Hou. started to try and get dirty the Lakers stepped there game up and gave as good as they got, plus they got Artest now. The lakers can adjust and play a finesse game or slow it down and get dirty and physical. The celtics have the aura of toughness and blue collar, but they are not as tough as they seem in this current state.

Confidence:  Pierce, Allen, KG, Rondo, Perkins... those guys have no fear... they have never been beaten in a 7 game series, and they have no reason to believe they can be beaten... they have still never faced a dire situation in any playoff series... have never trailed after the first 4 games of a series... and have only once trailed in any playoff series (2-1 to Cleveland this year)...

You can say the same thing about the Lakers, you think the Lakers are lacking any confidence or swagger. A silly non issue. No team playing for these stakes is lacking confidence.

Tough road:  if the Celtics win the NBA championship, they will have earned it... beating the #1, #2 and #3 teams in the NBA this season, and doing it without homecourt in any of those series... i have always been of the opinion that the teams who tune up against the best competition are a leg up when it comes time to decide the championship...

Again that aura of Blue Collar we can do anything mentality. A non issue. the real issue is how weak the Eastern Conerence was. It's no suprise that it was that easy for a experienced well coached team like the celts to carve up that competition. The Heat, a one man team. Wade can't do it by himself, and he had absolutely no support or chance. The Cavs? Hell no. Look good on paper, but were really a paper thin team not built for the long haul. Shaq hurt more than help, hogging minutes younger and more athletic player like Hickson could of had to develop and help in a playoff series. And of course once Lebron knew his teammates couldn't help and his assclown hack of a coach couldn't help him he shut it down and quit. Looking towards the offseason. Orlando? The Lakers dismantled a better version of this team for a championship last season. Orlando went through Charlotte? I mean really, they played with alot of grit but are harldy a playoff team. They were the best of the worst in a extremely shallow conference. The Hawks who quit in game 6 of the 1st round, and got lucky in game 7. Orlando were basically the east coast Suns.

So That's my humble opinion and I hope it changes some minds. Cause form reading quite a few posts alot of money is about to be lost on the Celtics. Thanks for reading.

Lakers in 6 or 7. It will be a good one.