Posted:
#76
solid as usual , nice job
PACERS VS. RAPTORS - GAME 6!! WRITE-UP/analysis/comments all here!
Posted:
#89
Thanks guys. Rough start. Glorious finish.
No Mike, I don't bet 10K a game. A couple hundred here and there. I hit the posted games very hard for larger sums but not 'baller' hard per se. Why? I have a good job. I make enough money. This is a hobby and putting a ceiling on my bets keeps everything enjoyable. And I want it to stay a hobby and pay some bills here and there with it. And that formula has been working! Why deviate!
So now all anyone cares about is...Game 7 and I have some comments.
The big 2 for the Raps? The 2 premiere core players who were supposed to lead this team out of the first round in 15 years?
"Lowry & DeRozan are a combined 60 of 209 (29%) from the field in this series
You think you are going to win a series when your two best players shoot like that?
In the aggregate the Pacers have outplayed the Raps and what this game has done is really set in stone the fact that the Pacers as a 7th seed, can knock off this 2 seed.
Pacers head coach Frank Vogel, on the other hand, has every reason to hope for more of the same.
"I believe we can play with this team," he said, per the Pacers' official Twitter account. "We are hitting our stride at the right time and playing our best basketball."
All true. All legitimate. All fairly scary for the Raps and their fans.
Now Derozan vowed they wouldn't lose another first round after last year's embarrassment against the Wizards.
And how has he backed that up? 34-125 shooting.
THIS is exactly what the Raps did against the Nets 2 years ago. Up 3-2, dominated on the road in game 6 and lost at the buzzer in Game 7.
The saving grace is that this Raptors team is better and much deeper. But in many ways this Pacer team hitting its stride right now, with, and this is key, the coach who can maximize his players output, is even more dangerous than the Nets.
What's the line going to be? 6/7? 6.5?
Just based on all the success the Pacers have had the last 3 games, I cannot lay that number for the Raps. No way.
The Pacers have lead for 110.5 minutes vs. 33.5 over the last 3 games.
What is Dwayne Casey, the inferior coach, going to present to change things? Less than one tenth of one second with a replay has prevented this series from possibly being 4-2 Indy!
So what do you have in favor of the Raps? The enormous winning percentage of home teams in Game 7's in NBA history. It's around 82%.
And guess who lost the last one? The Raptors vs. the Nets. The one before that? The Nets. LOL. At home vs. the Bulls. See a pattern here? Grossly underachieving teams doing what they do in the playoffs. Even bucking wildly successful trends in their favor (and that trend DOES hold water folks. A game 7 at home is enormous in the NBA).
So those are my comments. I'm definitely not laying that number with the Raptors and I'd have to see what the books offer for the Pacers. It's the Pacers plus the points or nothing for me if this line is 6/7 but no formal post for this one so no need to look for one. They do have those maniacs up there going berserk (BUT the Pacers won there Game 1 and again, came with .1 of another win so it doesn't appear they are intimidated by that atmosphere).
I'm content with my winnings tonight which why I played this game over game 7. This was a pure line. Just win. We did that.
Game 7's are very tricky and I hate the streak of no series wins in 15 years hanging over the Raps head. I love to fade streaks like that and take the team on the losing streak. But I simply can't lay 7 points with the Raps here. Lowery is damaged goods (-17 +/- tonight!) and you have to have him at his best to look for a dominant Raps game. And his best is long gone. He hasn't had a rock solid game in 12 games! Go look at his game log! 17% from 3 in this series.
Terrible.
Going to rewatch Game 6 to see if I see anything extra and I hope I gave ya enough here to make a play if you want to. Raps aren't going to lay down and certainly can win outright. But the spread is a major concern for Raps bettors.
I'm not on twitter. I only post here.
Posted:
#90
GREAT CALL
Posted:
#93
sorry i didnt visit earlier,my man.........another sniper shot as usual.
you are hands down no argument the best thing on the fu.kkin internet,dude.....
love reading your stuff and your discipline is not only rare....as far as i can see it is unique.
keep it up,bud.....win or lose you are awesome in wat you bring to the forum....even tho fleeting your appearances sumtimes are it wud be a huge void without ya....
wats your gut say on the title this year??.....cant split the warriors and spurs but im thinking warriors just squeek by possibly(injury permitting of course)
Posted:
#94
you're so selective with your bets, I'm glad you don't darn with life money and this is a hobby and not a job for you. All it takes it 1 big lost to screw up everything. Some people have even lost houses, marriages, and kill themselves over this.
Keep up the good job, greatly appreciated.
Keep up the good job, greatly appreciated.
Posted:
#97
Dog Mara Mikey playa bum
Trust me. Everyone here can be selective Mike. Don't believe that, because a line is out there, it must be bet. Most bettors here are winning bettors on their best plays. But they can't help but bet a shi*load of games simply because they exist. And you can't cap that many games effectively.
Melo's, appreciate it as always man!
I was pretty much floored to see the Spurs at +155 to win the West on 5Dimes after the Warriors beat the Rockets. As though the Rockets are anything to care about. That team is a fractured dumpster fire from start to finish. Honestly, Golden State should be mildly ashamed they lost a single game to them. Blowout wins without Curry against HOU are glorified scrimmages.
And with Curry out? Bum knee. Bum leg.
Does anyone here think he's going to be 100% upon returning? 90%? 80%?
Really? Even if he's 80%, is that enough to beat the Spurs? I will say this unequivocally: this is the best team Pop has ever had and he still has the magical, albeit fading, core which means everything to the all the new additions who have very limited playoff success. It is the core that strengthens when the new untested additions start to waver.
Best coach, right now the best roster comparing it to GS without Curry, legendary core, 67 win team, deep as an abyss, monster defensive leviathan in Kawai. What's not to like here at + money? We can't bet against the Warriors because of 73 wins? Why? Toward the end of the season where they carry the load of all the wear and tear of 82, they started dropping games like everyone else.
And here's two other keys I like about the Spurs:
I love that the Warriors are showing their offensive hand in these games. They are forced to without Curry. Pop has a scout on their games right now. They are emptying their bag of tricks and all they can count on is a healthy Curry and I have a big problem seeing that happen. If they destroy the Blazers it will be to their detriment because Curry needs more time to rest. Long series? More wear and tear on their tires.
I also love that Walton has been signed away. He'll finish the season but it's a psychological chin k in the armor for the staff and the players. A small one but still. One of their own is moving on. He was the guy who lead the 26 win opening season run so he has a connection with these guys.
Spurs? No issues whatsoever. Except to beat OKC who will not lay down. But to me it comes down to Pop vs. Donovan and how in the hell can Donovan come out of that? Spurs at home (40-1) in a game 7. How does OKC win that game? Curry was the bona fide star in all three wins over SA. He has to be 100%. No 2-9 garbage. And I just don't see a fully healthy Curry.
And if you are afraid of OKC? 5Dimes has a prop -110 for either Spurs or OKC to win the West. Wow. And if OKC ever gets another shot at GS, it is going to be Hagler/Hearns every night. But I don't see and I don't see a Curry who is even 90%. If he comes back sooner and as the old Steph vs. the Blazers? I'll reevaluate but it's very hard for me to see that. He only started riding a bike yesterday. No shooting. "It'a very hard to just get back or there after an injury." His words yesterday and obvious but it speaks to his mindset a bit. I wasn't crazy about his body language. Right now I'm perfectly content with the Spurs +155 to win the West.
Posted:
#99
Came on here to say two things...
1) I bet the Pacers yesterday, came onto Covers.com, read your post, had no idea who you were, found out you have a god-like following on covers.com and proceeded to double my bet when the Pacers line dropped to 1.5, so thank you!!
2) And damn you for picking the Spurs to win the west! I saw that line too and thought that was a lot of value for a team that was only a few games behind the warriors in the regular season 73 wins. Especially when they are so highly favored to win the series by Vegas, which is rarely wrong. Especially with curry not being at full strength, I'm seriously worried about a Spurs/Dubs match-up. Non-warriors fans forget that wins for the dubs on the road against the spurs have been non-existent for the better part of a decade.
Problem is I'm a die hard Warriors fan, and like you this is a hobby to enhance my viewing experience instead of a mechanism to pay my mortgage, so screw logic and your pick, to the Dubs winning it all!!!
to the Dubs winning it all!!! Thanks for the Pacers pick, and the write-up on game 7. And once again screw you for trying to make me face the reality of these "old" spurs.
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by tonychiza:
Came on here to say two things...
Came on here to say two things...
1) I bet the Pacers yesterday, came onto Covers.com, read your post, had no idea who you were, found out you have a god-like following on covers.com and proceeded to double my bet when the Pacers line dropped to 1.5, so thank you!!
2) And damn you for picking the Spurs to win the west! I saw that line too and thought that was a lot of value for a team that was only a few games behind the warriors in the regular season 73 wins. Especially when they are so highly favored to win the series by Vegas, which is rarely wrong. Especially with curry not being at full strength, I'm seriously worried about a Spurs/Dubs match-up. Non-warriors fans forget that wins for the dubs on the road against the spurs have been non-existent for the better part of a decade.
Problem is I'm a die hard Warriors fan, and like you this is a hobby to enhance my viewing experience instead of a mechanism to pay my mortgage, so screw logic and your pick, to the Dubs winning it all!!!
Thanks for the Pacers pick, and the write-up on game 7. And once again screw you for trying to make me face the reality of these "old" spurs.
Sorry man.
You can't go into that series with Livingston getting the bulk of the minutes.
Curry is not even shooting yet! It's a week tomorrow since the injury. Here are his words: "Shooting is not on the docket right now. There's still pain."
That sounds like it's some ways off. With the guy who was the driving force behind the three wins over the Spurs questionable, I'm still getting the greatest formulation of the Spurs ever.
Spurs Memphis was like watching Ohio State vs. Rutgers in football. GSW Rockets? Another joke BUT costly in that Curry goes down with not one but two injuries. Add to that they went for the 73, every game, every player no rest as the Spurs calmly rested there stars here and there and knocked off 67 wins.
Then you have the added pressure of carrying the equivalent of the 16-0 Pats record into the playoffs, lose and experience shame, off all things for the greatest regular season ever.
All these things lie on the periphery against the Warriors. The injury bug biting that at the most unfortunate time! Glad you double your bet!
lmb
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