Posted:
#1
2016 record: 11-2
Highlights:
College Football POY: Win
SMU 49 Tulane 21
NHL POY: Win
Penguins -1 game over Rangers (Pens 4 NY 1)
I said I love betting game 1's and game 7's in the playoffs. This is still true. But this game is a game 7 for one team, and therefore I get the same motivation I would for one team, and not as much from the other.
Paul George said as much when asked in the locker room after the game 5 collapse: "We're going home if we don't win. That's all the motivation we need." Obvious but important.
The Raptors? Well there's a reason they are tied for the single longest drought in the NBA without winning a first round - 15 years.
The culture of this team is one of underachievers, and culture matters. The Lakers have a historically proud culture from numerous championships. That is why in part, we took the Lakers to beat the Jazz the final game of the season to send their legend out in style. Players deferred to him for 60 points and he responded in kind.
The Raptors? Well we've seen their core in the playoffs and it's largely the same except for a much better bench now. They crapped out in game 7 against the Nets 2 years ago. They got swept by the Wizards last year.
Now we are supposed to believe that this team is going to close out the Pacers, who's core knows the playoffs quite well and have succeeded numerous times, on the road in a game 6 with a line that functions as a Moneyline?
No. We are taking the Pacers.
Why?
1. The line
Vegas thinks this is a huge adjustment and for them it is. The last Raptor road game was -2.5 Raptors. They opened the Pacers at -2.5. To them that's a 5 pt swing. But to the bettor, it's an effective ML. The line is now 2. We wouldn't care for the 2.5 for the Pacers because we are betting them to win. And betting them to win at -2 makes us only concerned about a single point - 1 - if the Pacers win by that margin.
That is a ML folks. But Vegas looks at every point as meaningful, and that is to our benefit. The line is quite favorable.
2. The collapse
Yes, the Pacers were devastated last game but now they come home for redemption. That's quite different than what happened to the Spurs in the Heat's second championship where the Heat had Game 7 at home after the historic Allen 3. Back to back road games after a collapse is not the same. You have no respite with that.
The Raptors went on a 23-2 run to win game 5 and even at that, with the Raptors having all the momentum the Pacers fell 3 points short by less than one thenth of a second and a replay. That's the difference between 3-2 Raps or OT where the Pacers might go up 3-2. Less than one tenth of a second!
That tells you only an all time worst playoff quarter had to do the Pacers in. And I promise that will not happen in an elimination game at home.
The Pacers play when they want to play. Remember vs. Atlanta 2 years ago? They waited until game 7 to stick a fork in the ultra gutsy Hawks getting booed off their own home court some games.
But the Raptors have disturbing tendencies in very big games too. They were woeful I'm Game 1 and at home with the series on the line they went down 35-20 in the first quarter in game 5. Down 15 right out of the gate heading back to Indy! That is simply not showing up.
And that is due in part to the fact Kyle Lowery is have an atrocious series. And Derozan, aside from last game, is also having a below average series in the aggregate. Valanciunas had one phenomenal game and the Raptors needed every bit of him in Game 3 to take it on the road. He's come crashing down to earth since that point. The Raps are deep. They turned to Joseph and Norman and Ross and some of Derozan in that comeback, but aside from the last player on that list, those aren't the guys who will be on the floor in a close game in crunch time. And the best Raptors have had their moments but haven't been playing like the regular season types that got them here.
Who has? Paul George. You have the best player on the floor if you take the Pacers. And you have a superior defense that has shut down the Raps for significant stretches.
How significant?
lol some the characters othese forums are funny and some are done in three words or less! PRICELESS
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