Posted:
#26
Thanks or the post Scal. I always enjoy your stuff.
PACERS VS. RAPTORS - GAME 6!! WRITE-UP/analysis/comments all here!
Posted:
#29
I have to disagree with most of you..
TORONTO TO WIN
Raptors are motivated, they understand how badly the city of Toronto wants to push this to the second round...
Drake released his new album last night and he too will motivate the raptors.. he mentions them as well in a song... Raptors defeating Indiana last game was a mental blow to Indiana, so I believe Raptors can make this a close match and will in fact win tonight.
Plus the line has moved from +2.5 Raptors to +1.5... I believe this means sharp money is on Raptors considering 65% of the public is on Indiana... aka Reverse Line Movement..
TORONTO TO WIN
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
2016 record: 11-2
The Jazz had zero reason to try in that game, either way you were right.
2016 record: 11-2
Highlights:
College Football POY: Win
SMU 49 Tulane 21
NHL POY: Win
Penguins -1 game over Rangers (Pens 4 NY 1)
I said I love betting game 1's and game 7's in the playoffs. This is still true. But this game is a game 7 for one team, and therefore I get the same motivation I would for one team, and not as much from the other.
Paul George said as much when asked in the locker room after the game 5 collapse: "We're going home if we don't win. That's all the motivation we need." Obvious but important.
The Raptors? Well there's a reason they are tied for the single longest drought in the NBA without winning a first round - 15 years.
The culture of this team is one of underachievers, and culture matters. The Lakers have a historically proud culture from numerous championships. That is why in part, we took the Lakers to beat the Jazz the final game of the season to send their legend out in style. Players deferred to him for 60 points and he responded in kind.
The Raptors? Well we've seen their core in the playoffs and it's largely the same except for a much better bench now. They crapped out in game 7 against the Nets 2 years ago. They got swept by the Wizards last year.
Now we are supposed to believe that this team is going to close out the Pacers, who's core knows the playoffs quite well and have succeeded numerous times, on the road in a game 6 with a line that functions as a Moneyline?
No. We are taking the Pacers.
Why?
1. The line
Vegas thinks this is a huge adjustment and for them it is. The last Raptor road game was -2.5 Raptors. They opened the Pacers at -2.5. To them that's a 5 pt swing. But to the bettor, it's an effective ML. The line is now 2. We wouldn't care for the 2.5 for the Pacers because we are betting them to win. And betting them to win at -2 makes us only concerned about a single point - 1 - if the Pacers win by that margin.
That is a ML folks. But Vegas looks at every point as meaningful, and that is to our benefit. The line is quite favorable.
2. The collapse
Yes, the Pacers were devastated last game but now they come home for redemption. That's quite different than what happened to the Spurs in the Heat's second championship where the Heat had Game 7 at home after the historic Allen 3. Back to back road games after a collapse is not the same. You have no respite with that.
The Raptors went on a 23-2 run to win game 5 and even at that, with the Raptors having all the momentum the Pacers fell 3 points short by less than one thenth of a second and a replay. That's the difference between 3-2 Raps or OT where the Pacers might go up 3-2. Less than one tenth of a second!
That tells you only an all time worst playoff quarter had to do the Pacers in. And I promise that will not happen in an elimination game at home.
The Pacers play when they want to play. Remember vs. Atlanta 2 years ago? They waited until game 7 to stick a fork in the ultra gutsy Hawks getting booed off their own home court some games.
But the Raptors have disturbing tendencies in very big games too. They were woeful I'm Game 1 and at home with the series on the line they went down 35-20 in the first quarter in game 5. Down 15 right out of the gate heading back to Indy! That is simply not showing up.
And that is due in part to the fact Kyle Lowery is have an atrocious series. And Derozan, aside from last game, is also having a below average series in the aggregate. Valanciunas had one phenomenal game and the Raptors needed every bit of him in Game 3 to take it on the road. He's come crashing down to earth since that point. The Raps are deep. They turned to Joseph and Norman and Ross and some of Derozan in that comeback, but aside from the last player on that list, those aren't the guys who will be on the floor in a close game in crunch time. And the best Raptors have had their moments but haven't been playing like the regular season types that got them here.
Who has? Paul George. You have the best player on the floor if you take the Pacers. And you have a superior defense that has shut down the Raps for significant stretches.
How significant?
The refs crapped out Raps in game 7 against Nets.
I am not a Raps fan but feel like you are giving Pacers way to much credit here. One could make similar argument that after blowing that game if they start slow here Pacers could fold.
This is a game with 2 teams that can go forever without scoring because they both rely way to much on 1-2 players. If DeRozan doesn't settle for jumpers then I think Raps win. George can only do so much.
I will have no money on it and love to see Toronto sports teams lose so BOL.
We should stop eating bananas.
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by marquee_:
Think many dont see that lowry is dealing with an elbow injury he had back in feb.
Think many dont see that lowry is dealing with an elbow injury he had back in feb.
his shooting form has changed to deal with the pain. outside of that i like what hes brought.
demar on the other hand only brings scoring and in the playoffs his scoring is dreadful.
If he just takes it to the basket as opposed to settling for jumpers he would be fine but some nights he seems to love outside shooting.
We should stop eating bananas.
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by Yonks:
I have to disagree with most of you..
TORONTO TO WIN
I have to disagree with most of you..
Raptors are motivated, they understand how badly the city of Toronto wants to push this to the second round...
Drake released his new album last night and he too will motivate the raptors.. he mentions them as well in a song... Raptors defeating Indiana last game was a mental blow to Indiana, so I believe Raptors can make this a close match and will in fact win tonight.
Plus the line has moved from +2.5 Raptors to +1.5... I believe this means sharp money is on Raptors considering 65% of the public is on Indiana... aka Reverse Line Movement..
TORONTO TO WIN
The line has consistently moved down since it opened be it sharp or square money or both, and in this cap, I'm concerned with neither.
And I think you are jumping the gun about Toronto moving on, which they very well might and are in prime position to do up 3-2. This is game 6, a completely different world than game 7 at home. The Raps need to go 1-1 over the next 2. There is room for error. Not so much for the Pacers who need to go 2-0, are at home, are in their own game 7, have the best player, the best coach, the better defense and all this against a team that clearly is deeper and better overall, but has had 15 years of struggles as a culture for a reason.
I'll take the former over the latter.
Oh and Kyle Lowery hasn't just shot 30% in this series, he's shot 31% over his LAST 15 GAMES.
Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by Nilshu:
Always a pleasure reading your posts Scal, wish you nothing but the best on your play today. Quick question for you, if this game goes to 7 (which I think it will) who do you think takes that game? Or will that answer be saved for a Game 7 post?
Cheers buddy
Always a pleasure reading your posts Scal, wish you nothing but the best on your play today. Quick question for you, if this game goes to 7 (which I think it will) who do you think takes that game? Or will that answer be saved for a Game 7 post?
Cheers buddy
When we cross that bridge Nil. Let's just talk about 6 tonight. 7 can't be capped, in reality or in theory' until 6 is finished.
Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:
The Jazz had zero reason to try in that game, either way you were right.
The Jazz had zero reason to try in that game, either way you were right.
The refs crapped out Raps in game 7 against Nets.
I am not a Raps fan but feel like you are giving Pacers way to much credit here. One could make similar argument that after blowing that game if they start slow here Pacers could fold.
This is a game with 2 teams that can go forever without scoring because they both rely way to much on 1-2 players. If DeRozan doesn't settle for jumpers then I think Raps win. George can only do so much.
I will have no money on it and love to see Toronto sports teams lose so BOL.
Not true Ben. Nets took the lead in the second quarter and never relinquised it.
If you are talking about the last drive and a foul on Paul, just look to this year and Wade two nights ago where the refs intentionally swallowed the whistle. They consistently tell us you have to earn it on the last play if you have the ball and are taking the game-winner. That hasn't changed for years minus a few controversial calls.
Derozan has been settling for jumpers all series and its clear Lowery is not going to take them to the promised land.
The Pacers are getting credit from me because we are getting an effective ML at home in an elimination game. That's pretty appealing with the best player, coach, defense and a team who's core has been battle-tested in these spots.
Hot Forum Topics
