NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

Raps -4.88 over Cavs

Wiz -3.03 over Celtics

Rockets -.97 over Spurs

We have plays on the Raps, Celtics and Spurs at the current lines.

Wiz may win SU but even if they do Celtics very likely to plsy much better and Wiz off a 27 pt win, with my lines fading them, good spot to back Celtics ATS.

Rockets in the same must win as Wiz and may get the SU win but even if they do Spurs on another level over Rockets and very well could be in this game with a chance to cover ATS.

Spurs also a largest mismatch team off 2 ATS wins and a 25 pt blowout win and cover, not the best spot to back the Spurs.

Will possibly pass on this game.

Cavs have now entered the "regression zone" playing on an unsustainable level of play.

From 2009 -2016 teams that have been in this spot are 3-12 ATS in the 1st game after being in this spot, 1-12-1 ATS in the 2cd game and 6-7 ATS in the 3rd game.

Warriors in this exact same spot going into game 1 VS Jazz and the info played out perfectly as Warriors failed to cover the 1st...2 games of the spot.

Many times there is a good size dog win SU in this spot, what I thought we'd have a good shot with Jazz winning SU in games 1 or 2.

We'll be coming in on Raps game 4 on the line and ML, wait-out this line, looks like public loves LBJ and his Cavs in this game, 

If you read the article on the front page on LBJ being money in close-out games, well, let's take a look at LBJ and his closeout games past 2 years and this year.

2016 in the 1st or 2cd round.............................

Cavs -6.5 over Pistons after leading 3-0, won by 2.

Cavs -5.5 over Hawks after leading 3-0 , won by 1

2015 in the 1st and 2cd round...........................

Cavs -6.5 over Celtics after leading 3-0, won by 8, but the line did open 8, so had you got the best line you would have pushed fading LBJ 

Cavs +2 over Bulls after leading 3-2 in game 6 not game 4, Cavs won by 21

2017.............................

Cavs -4 over Pacers after leading 3-0, won by 4.

LBJ and his Cavs do what all other teams do, they excel in closeout games the later in the series the close-out game comes, earlier in the series teams do not have the same intensity to play hard and closeout the series.

Let's look at how LBJ came into those closeout games...............

2015 Bulls in game 6 not game 4, off a SU loss and a 2 pt win and a 5 pt win .0-3 ATS

2015 Celtics, won by 13 by 8 ands by 8, 2-1 ATS.

2016 Pistons won by 5 by 17 and by 10, 2-1 ATS

2016 Hawks, won by 11 won by 25 won by 13 , 3-0 ATS, 

Cavs biggest run very similar to this year was VS Hawks where they barely got   a  win by 1 pt  as a 5.5 favorite.

Cavs smallest run was VS Bulls and it was a game 6 not game 4 which is far more common for all teams  and the only time they won handily in a closeout game 1st two rounds of the past 2 plus years now.

Cavs coming into this closeout game off a 11 pt win, 25 pt win and a 21 pt win .

Cavs at best are 2-2-1 ATS in closeout games 2015 - 2017 in 1st or 2cd round, and after leading 3-0 in a game 4  at best Cavs are 1-2-1 ATS and had you got best line 0-2-2 ATS in a game 4.

The right play is on the Raps.

After the game we'll be hearing about the fix was in because how can a team so good at close-out games lose SU , had you look closer Cavs are not that good in closeout games in this exact spot.

The games play-out the same way they always have played-out, but unless you do your homework you won't know that. 

With these two officiating, are you insinuating that the Cavs cover or that the raptors cover Bob? Very curious. Call me crazy but I actually lean raptors right now to cover but not win. Haven't locked anything in yet though.  At some point, like the dubs, the Cavs will have to give a cover away. You and I both know that is a must for these super teams. "Playing the game, within the game".....

and you are right, lately the Cavs havent been as successful in closeout games since LBJ came back to Cleveland esp when the opponent are down 0-3. its about 50% cover rate.  so yes LBJ does have solid track record in closeout games but just not as solid lately. to be fair though the recent Cavs team arent quite like the super Miami team or the Cavs when LBJ was in his middle prime years. LBJ has had to work with moving parts, injuries, a lameduck coach and the roster hasnt been as consistent like in the past, always experinenting as a work in progress group. the East was also more competitive last year but the Hawks, Raptors arent quite the same teams from a year ago. the Celtics are more or less the same group with just the addition of Horford. they probably need one more impact player to challenge the Cavs. 

LBJ IN Miami in the 1st or 2cd round years 2011 - 2014, 4 straight trips to finals, closeout games in a game 4 or 5 .....

2011 - 1-1 ATS

2012 - 1-0 ATS

2013 -1-1 ATS

2014 - 1-1 ATS

All teams not just LBJ do better in closeout games in 6 or 7 then they do in 4 or 5 simply because there are so many games left there is not the same sense of urgency.

Lbj is not a covering machine in this spot.

Raps + 7 over Cavs --- 4.4 units

Raps ML +260 --- 1.5 units to win 3.9 units

Raps 1st half +3.5 --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Raps ML +160 1st half --- 1 unit to win 1.6 units

Many on the site see this game as a lock, and it is 90% on Cavs at current time we know how that ussually works-out.

That is an indication that Cavs are playing as well as any team possibly can for everyone and their brother and 3rd cousin to think like this which.............tells us Cavs have peaked ............... and are ready to go down.......................... not because the game is a fix.........................

The ave joe is misreading the previous games and how to use those games  to have predictive value going forward.....................

Then I checked 92 Bulls, yes same spot 1 time as a regression play, lost SU 1st game as a 7 pt fav, covered next game and lost the 3rd game SU  again.

1-2 ATS and lost as a fairly big fav.

Checked Shag and Kobe in 2001, their dominate year in playoffs, yep, 1 time regression fade, same result, lost 1st game SU as a 12 pt fav, lost 2cd game ATS as 11.5 pt fav and won and covered the 3rd game.

History is telling us what is far more likely to happen and it ain't because the fix is in, it has been happening year after year in NBA PLayoffs.

It's math not a fix,  not sustainable, law of averages is all it is.

This site represents about  1 or 2% of all bets made at a book and not only that but the site overall is better then the ave joe making those other 98% of bets.

As for the raptors,  DeRozan should be locked in early and the raptors will try their hardest to get that crowd going. Will one of the big 3 of the Cavs get into foul trouble? Probably. Unlike the pacers, the raps have some firepower and they have some experience so I think they start quick and they keep this thing within reach maybe even covering first half. By the Cavs simply blowing the raptors out first half, the books aren't gonna make any money. Public is all over the Cavs in this one and regardless of what the score is, people will pound the Cavs. The league knows this as do the Cavs as do the books. This would be a VERY VERY VERY EASY way to make a ton for the books. I'd be very surprised if the Cavs lose to this raptors team but I don't think it's out of the question that the raptors cover the game. As this game progresses, lebron will take over and the aura of his presence will be brought to light again. It's all about lebron here guys. At some point the Cavs will "struggle" and when they do, lebron will be there to pick them up. They could cover late or they could pull a Cavs/pacers game 1. Then again, after all of this.....who knows with this Cavs team. Anything goes until the conference finals!

Like historical trends and analysis is huge and has served us well in the past, but if this game looks unwinnable with 3 mins to go, Cavs should cover for sure. Last game was close all day until the end where the extended it past 10 points. I think that happens again.

However, I will say, Vegas has been crushed on Cavs in all 3 games and Warriors game 3. So if there's some sketchy foul calls late then it's more likely Foster and Co don't want Cavs covering. ML Cavs seems like a layup though.

Thanks for all your time and effort on these posts. It's a treat to read.

i got 5-3 ats in game 4 or 5 in Miami era but you do have a point there. the urgency is greater the longer the series is played out cant argue with you there. otherwise LBJ's teams are 21-4 SU & 17-8 ATS in closeout games. which other player in this era has better success in closeouts than LBJ.. the Spurs maybe and Kobe Bryant era Lakers so you are probably right again not just LBJ's teams but the great teams in general.

Thanks for your input. GL Claw 

Celtics +3.5 (-115) 1st half --- 1.15 units

My stats mean alot, 1st there is no team with common denominators of past champs in the East, 2cd no team is exceptionally better then Cavs, just look at the ratings.

And the best team in my stats lost one of their 2 best players in 2 games, not that Raps would of won series but could of won a game or 2.

You may be able to make a case for a team in the Cavs situation with no teams with common denominators of past champs that then....a all-time great can make the difference....I have not done much if any research in that area, but have noticed that may be the case in the NBA and NFL as well.

But here is what my stats do know.............when LBJ has been on the inferior team by a good amount has only come 4 times and all 4 were in the finals and he is 1-3, which is  almost exactly what all other inferior teams have done since 1980.

LBJ has done no better then all other teams.

At this point he has not beaten any good team yet because there is none in the east, so if he losses in the finals which is very likely.................yep my stats will prove to be correct again.

You could say LBJ beat teams slightly better then his teams in my stats but other teams do that as well in my stats so that by-itself is not evidence of anything, a team slightly better is not a good indicator of my stats since many teams will beat teams only slightly better.

1st half --- 1-1 ATS, lost 1.2 units

ML --- lost 2.5 units

Cavs keep winning but LBJ did not prove to be money in close-out games with a push. I can't believe Raps let Korver get the ball before fouling , anybody but Korver to get those last second FT's  but we still had a very good shot on the cover. with the last possesion.

LBJ came in to 2017 only about 50% in games 4 or 5 in 1st , 2cd round and in 2017 he is 0-0-2 ATS on closing line, now, had you got best available line which is always the wisest thing to do you could be 2-0. 

We'll fade Cavs game 1 next series and a ML fade as well, Cavs in a great fade spot. Will likely be setup very well as Cavs will be off rest VS opp off a grueling series, same situation we had when we covered with Jazz game 1 VS Warriors.

Unfortunately we missed 2 large line adjustments yesterday when the line moved fairly  big late before game time and we could of been 2-0 with both overs in Cavs and Wiz games.

I was outside doing chores around the house .

We miss games every once and awhile and they almost always seem to win, that's aggravating.

Wiz off another big win, a great spot for my lines in game 5 if we have a play on C's.

Claw, first and foremost i love your threat, have tailed many of your guys, and am VERY appreciate to your posts and write ups. On that note, I faded and doubled down on your pick. Here's why I am commenting. I work in financial networks, selling trading education and software. The whole concept of betting is extremely similar to trading. The mindset, psychology, overtrading, revenge trading, and it takes a certain discipline and finesse to get this stuff down that mostly comes from mistakes and experience. Anyways, I see countless traders look too far into this stuff. Sometimes you have to say f*** the numbers and all this garbage, just look at what is in front of you and the context. People, not saying you in particular, get too caught up with the sophistication of their system, which works in most cases. What I am refernecing here, and why I faded, is toronto is plain out bad. They are an awful team playing against the cream of the crop, LBJ. There's no reason to look at numbers in a case like last night. THEY JUST WON'T WIN. It's right there. If you watch the games you can see that toronto just won't win. It's honestly probably going to be the same thing tonight with the Warriors. Jazz just plain out aren't good enough to beat them. They don't have what it takes. It's a tough pill to swallow when you have a solid, profitable system. Anyways, that's just my two cents and all just my opinion from experience. Keep up the great work and I look forward to your future posts

Warriors -2.81 over Jazz 

closeout games we do not use my lines.............powerhouse teams like the Warriors are strong plays in closeout games but not as strong in game 4's and Warriors huge fav for a road team.

Warriors our largest mismatch team as well, but are only 1-2 ATS , not sure about this game, would think Jazz at home could get 1 ATS and SU  win but may pass on game.

Possible we take some action on over but let's waitout the line and see if public drives it down.

If Warriors fail to cover tonight that setsup another great spot on Warriors next round based off another regression method 

Our largest mismatch team went 2-2 ATS with the Spurs 2-2 ATS, a Spurs cover tonight and they are 5-4 ATS just blindly backing them every game.

Celtics -4.97 over Wiz

Spurs -7.03 over Rockets

Spurs -5.5 over Rockets --- 5.5 units

Spurs -3 1st half --- 2.2 units

Lean Celtics

Lean both UNDERS ....at this point.