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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

    «First Previous 101112 ... 131415 Next Last»
    theclaw
    Rana828
    bum
    Achilles1629
    bertski
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    «First Previous 101112 ... 131415 Next Last»
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 9, 2017 - 7:48 PM ET #226

    Quote Originally Posted by brettcards:

    Thanks for all the picks & insights Claw. My favorite thread during the playoffs. 

    Do you have your updated record? Curious to see where you are overall since the start of the playoffs this year. 

    Will get around to it soon.
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    Quote Originally Posted by brettcards:

    Thanks for all the picks & insights Claw. My favorite thread during the playoffs. 

    Do you have your updated record? Curious to see where you are overall since the start of the playoffs this year. 

    Will get around to it soon.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 9, 2017 - 7:50 PM ET #227

    Spurs/Rockets UNDER 217 --- 2.2 UNITS
    UNDER 110.5 1st half --- 1.1 units
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    Spurs/Rockets UNDER 217 --- 2.2 UNITS
    UNDER 110.5 1st half --- 1.1 units
     
    Rana828
    Rana828
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    Posted: May. 9, 2017 - 7:55 PM ET #228

    Gl claw!  with you on spurs
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    Gl claw!  with you on spurs
     
    Rana828
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    Posted: May. 9, 2017 - 8:35 PM ET #229

    Gl claw!  with you on spurs
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    Gl claw!  with you on spurs
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 10, 2017 - 7:45 AM ET #230

    game 0-1 ATS, lost 5.5 units
    1st half 0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

    totals 0-1, lost 1.1 units

    Rockets played well and hung in there, Spurs should play better in game 6 if Kawhi can play which he claims at this time he will.

    Son of a gun we got bitten by the OT bug once again, game was an easy under, thankfully I was able to get 217 late, there were some 216.5's and a few 217 out there, this is where having 2 or 3 books can be a big advantage as getting the best available line comes into play a few times each playoffs.


    We should bounce back in the days ahead with some very good spots on deck.
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    game 0-1 ATS, lost 5.5 units
    1st half 0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

    totals 0-1, lost 1.1 units

    Rockets played well and hung in there, Spurs should play better in game 6 if Kawhi can play which he claims at this time he will.

    Son of a gun we got bitten by the OT bug once again, game was an easy under, thankfully I was able to get 217 late, there were some 216.5's and a few 217 out there, this is where having 2 or 3 books can be a big advantage as getting the best available line comes into play a few times each playoffs.


    We should bounce back in the days ahead with some very good spots on deck.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 10, 2017 - 7:47 AM ET #231

    MY LINES...........................................

    Celtics -4.97

    Wizz off a blowout win and a cover next game.

    LEAN --- Celtics at this time

    Lean --- UNDER 

    Will likely take some action but wait out the lines at this point.
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    MY LINES...........................................

    Celtics -4.97

    Wizz off a blowout win and a cover next game.

    LEAN --- Celtics at this time

    Lean --- UNDER 

    Will likely take some action but wait out the lines at this point.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 10, 2017 - 7:53 AM ET #232

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    MY LINES...........................................

    Celtics -4.97

    Wizz off a blowout win and a cover next game.

    LEAN --- Celtics at this time

    Lean --- UNDER 

    Will likely take some action but wait out the lines at this point.


    If we look at how series have played out over years and years, decade after decade, teams up 2-0 go on to win series like 84% of the time, which means both the Spurs last night and Celtics tonight should win SU and go on to win series.

    We can make plays purely off things like this and do fairly well.

    If Celtics win SU with a lower line like 4 or 4.5 and the Wiz being off 2 AST wins with a blowout win, likely a Celtics cover as well as a SU win.
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    MY LINES...........................................

    Celtics -4.97

    Wizz off a blowout win and a cover next game.

    LEAN --- Celtics at this time

    Lean --- UNDER 

    Will likely take some action but wait out the lines at this point.


    If we look at how series have played out over years and years, decade after decade, teams up 2-0 go on to win series like 84% of the time, which means both the Spurs last night and Celtics tonight should win SU and go on to win series.

    We can make plays purely off things like this and do fairly well.

    If Celtics win SU with a lower line like 4 or 4.5 and the Wiz being off 2 AST wins with a blowout win, likely a Celtics cover as well as a SU win.
     
    bum
    bum
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    Posted: May. 10, 2017 - 1:33 PM ET #233

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    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 10, 2017 - 7:48 PM ET #234

    Celtics -4 over Wiz --- 2.2 units
    Celtics -2.5 (+100) 1st half --- 1 unit

    Celtics/Wiz UNDER  218 --- 5.5 units
    1st half UNDER 111.5 --- 2.2 UNITS

    We have the largest line movement on the total of any game this series , 2.5 to 3, public definately over-reacting to all the recent overs coming in and the overs in this series.

    Any time the public over reacts and drives the line we get value fading them. Take the value with the law of averages on our side, in the long run it's a great deal.
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    Celtics -4 over Wiz --- 2.2 units
    Celtics -2.5 (+100) 1st half --- 1 unit

    Celtics/Wiz UNDER  218 --- 5.5 units
    1st half UNDER 111.5 --- 2.2 UNITS

    We have the largest line movement on the total of any game this series , 2.5 to 3, public definately over-reacting to all the recent overs coming in and the overs in this series.

    Any time the public over reacts and drives the line we get value fading them. Take the value with the law of averages on our side, in the long run it's a great deal.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 8:21 AM ET #235

    game --- 1-0n ATS, won 2 units
    1st half --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

    totals --- 0-2, lost 7.7 units


    son of a gun, we just can not win a total play, we did lose 2 when games went to OT combined with our other losses on totals those 2 games really hurt now, had we got those 2 games which we easily could have it'd be much easier to weather the storm.

     But geez louise, teams keep shooting way over their heads on 3's.

    Celtics shot 48.2% when they were a 35.,9% shooting team in regular season.

    Thought we may of had a fairly good shot to get the under during 4th quarter but geez these guys just did not stop making shots.
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    game --- 1-0n ATS, won 2 units
    1st half --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

    totals --- 0-2, lost 7.7 units


    son of a gun, we just can not win a total play, we did lose 2 when games went to OT combined with our other losses on totals those 2 games really hurt now, had we got those 2 games which we easily could have it'd be much easier to weather the storm.

     But geez louise, teams keep shooting way over their heads on 3's.

    Celtics shot 48.2% when they were a 35.,9% shooting team in regular season.

    Thought we may of had a fairly good shot to get the under during 4th quarter but geez these guys just did not stop making shots.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 8:36 AM ET #236

    MY LINES................................................

    Rockets -.97 over Spurs

    Our largest mismatch team the Spurs come in off 2ATS losses, a great spot for these teams.

    Powerhouse teams like the Spurs in a game 6 closeout game are money, great spot to back the ML.

    2 great spots to back the Spurs tonight, unfortunately we do not know Kawhi's status at this time, he says he'll play, but they all say that speaking out of emotion instead of good rational  thinking.

    But then again Kawhi does not seem the type to speak out of emotion, seems much more reserved and  level headed then your ave superstar player.

    Let's wait it out untill just before game time and see what he looks like in warm-ups.


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    MY LINES................................................

    Rockets -.97 over Spurs

    Our largest mismatch team the Spurs come in off 2ATS losses, a great spot for these teams.

    Powerhouse teams like the Spurs in a game 6 closeout game are money, great spot to back the ML.

    2 great spots to back the Spurs tonight, unfortunately we do not know Kawhi's status at this time, he says he'll play, but they all say that speaking out of emotion instead of good rational  thinking.

    But then again Kawhi does not seem the type to speak out of emotion, seems much more reserved and  level headed then your ave superstar player.

    Let's wait it out untill just before game time and see what he looks like in warm-ups.


     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 9:07 AM ET #237

    Spurs are a powerhouse team? In this series, have they played like a powerhouse team? I see a series that could have either team up 3-2 and just because of the past performances by them, I don't think that has anything to do with this particular series. I see two even teams with two contrasting styles and I see a motivated Harden tonite after getting his shot blocked by a 39 year old. I'm sure many feel that if the spurs can win a game with kawhi on the bench the last 3 minutes of regulation and all of overtime, why can't they close out tonite with a healthier kawhi? I'm thinking out loud here but I wouldn't be surprised if Houston wins/covers tonite and goes into San Antonio to win game 7. Again, I don't see anything glaring that sticks out for either team here so calling one team a powerhouse over the other.....it's a bit off. Have they been a powerhouse in the past? Sure. Are they now? Not so sure. Claw 
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    Spurs are a powerhouse team? In this series, have they played like a powerhouse team? I see a series that could have either team up 3-2 and just because of the past performances by them, I don't think that has anything to do with this particular series. I see two even teams with two contrasting styles and I see a motivated Harden tonite after getting his shot blocked by a 39 year old. I'm sure many feel that if the spurs can win a game with kawhi on the bench the last 3 minutes of regulation and all of overtime, why can't they close out tonite with a healthier kawhi? I'm thinking out loud here but I wouldn't be surprised if Houston wins/covers tonite and goes into San Antonio to win game 7. Again, I don't see anything glaring that sticks out for either team here so calling one team a powerhouse over the other.....it's a bit off. Have they been a powerhouse in the past? Sure. Are they now? Not so sure. Claw 
     
    bertski
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 4:12 PM ET #238

    BUMP
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    BUMP
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 8:04 PM ET #239

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Spurs are a powerhouse team? In this series, have they played like a powerhouse team? I see a series that could have either team up 3-2 and just because of the past performances by them, I don't think that has anything to do with this particular series. I see two even teams with two contrasting styles and I see a motivated Harden tonite after getting his shot blocked by a 39 year old. I'm sure many feel that if the spurs can win a game with kawhi on the bench the last 3 minutes of regulation and all of overtime, why can't they close out tonite with a healthier kawhi? I'm thinking out loud here but I wouldn't be surprised if Houston wins/covers tonite and goes into San Antonio to win game 7. Again, I don't see anything glaring that sticks out for either team here so calling one team a powerhouse over the other.....it's a bit off. Have they been a powerhouse in the past? Sure. Are they now? Not so sure. Claw 


    Powerhouse team based on this year, they have the common denominators of past NBA Champs which is very difficult to attain, only 2 or 3 teams each year can get there, Spurs are one of 2 this year.

    Many great teams in the past have been up 3-2 with games that could of gone either way, happens all the time in the NBA with powerhouse teams, looking at it that way has no predictive value going forward.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Spurs are a powerhouse team? In this series, have they played like a powerhouse team? I see a series that could have either team up 3-2 and just because of the past performances by them, I don't think that has anything to do with this particular series. I see two even teams with two contrasting styles and I see a motivated Harden tonite after getting his shot blocked by a 39 year old. I'm sure many feel that if the spurs can win a game with kawhi on the bench the last 3 minutes of regulation and all of overtime, why can't they close out tonite with a healthier kawhi? I'm thinking out loud here but I wouldn't be surprised if Houston wins/covers tonite and goes into San Antonio to win game 7. Again, I don't see anything glaring that sticks out for either team here so calling one team a powerhouse over the other.....it's a bit off. Have they been a powerhouse in the past? Sure. Are they now? Not so sure. Claw 


    Powerhouse team based on this year, they have the common denominators of past NBA Champs which is very difficult to attain, only 2 or 3 teams each year can get there, Spurs are one of 2 this year.

    Many great teams in the past have been up 3-2 with games that could of gone either way, happens all the time in the NBA with powerhouse teams, looking at it that way has no predictive value going forward.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 8:06 PM ET #240

    LEAN --- Spurs +9

    Won't be surprised by a SU Spurs win .
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    LEAN --- Spurs +9

    Won't be surprised by a SU Spurs win .
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 8:21 PM ET #241

    Claw, with kawhi out, call me crazy.....I took Spurs first half +5.5. Smart ball SO FAR by the Spurs which is what I expected. Hopefully they can continue it. Good luck tonite amigo. 
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    Claw, with kawhi out, call me crazy.....I took Spurs first half +5.5. Smart ball SO FAR by the Spurs which is what I expected. Hopefully they can continue it. Good luck tonite amigo. 
     
    WussieMan
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    Posted: May. 11, 2017 - 8:31 PM ET #242

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    LEAN --- Spurs +9

    Won't be surprised by a SU Spurs win .

    Looking like monies early. GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    LEAN --- Spurs +9

    Won't be surprised by a SU Spurs win .

    Looking like monies early. GL
     
    bum
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 1:01 AM ET #243

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    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 6:54 AM ET #244

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    LEAN --- Spurs +9

    Won't be surprised by a SU Spurs win .

    I was planning to take small action on Spurs including a ML play but lost track of the time looking into a few things, I posted after the game started so I just posted this lean.

    To miss out on a win is brutal at this point since we needed a win, that's aggravating for sure.

    Spurs looked like the powerhouse team they are in a game 6 closeout game and a largest mismatch team off 2 ATS losses , we had 2 great spots and Spurs delivered big-time.

    Next year we may get into more specific spots now that we have quite a few spots that seem to be very strong plays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    LEAN --- Spurs +9

    Won't be surprised by a SU Spurs win .

    I was planning to take small action on Spurs including a ML play but lost track of the time looking into a few things, I posted after the game started so I just posted this lean.

    To miss out on a win is brutal at this point since we needed a win, that's aggravating for sure.

    Spurs looked like the powerhouse team they are in a game 6 closeout game and a largest mismatch team off 2 ATS losses , we had 2 great spots and Spurs delivered big-time.

    Next year we may get into more specific spots now that we have quite a few spots that seem to be very strong plays.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 7:02 AM ET #245

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Raps +3.5 over Cavs --- 4.4 units
    Raps 1st half --- 2.2 units

    Spurs +4.5 over Rockets --- 6.6 units
    Spurs ML +170 --- 2 units to win 3.4 units
    Spurs 1st half +2.5 --- 3.3 units
    Spurs ML +150 1st half --- 1 unit to win 1.5 units

    Spurs to win series over Rockets +106  ---   6 units to win 6.36 units 


    Series play --- 1-0, won 6.36 units

    we have 2 series parlays , one with Spurs/Raps, the other with Spurs/Wiz for 1 unit each.

    we already lost Spurs/Raps , but still alive with the Wiz .
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Raps +3.5 over Cavs --- 4.4 units
    Raps 1st half --- 2.2 units

    Spurs +4.5 over Rockets --- 6.6 units
    Spurs ML +170 --- 2 units to win 3.4 units
    Spurs 1st half +2.5 --- 3.3 units
    Spurs ML +150 1st half --- 1 unit to win 1.5 units

    Spurs to win series over Rockets +106  ---   6 units to win 6.36 units 


    Series play --- 1-0, won 6.36 units

    we have 2 series parlays , one with Spurs/Raps, the other with Spurs/Wiz for 1 unit each.

    we already lost Spurs/Raps , but still alive with the Wiz .
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 7:09 AM ET #246

    MY LINES...........................................

    Wiz -3.03 over Celtics

    we don't use my lines in closeout games. we back the team to win the series, this series is the closest matchup of any game in the 1st or 2cd round (Celtics by .32 over Wiz) according to key stats which have high correlations and high predictive value

    It would make alot of sense for the game with the closest matchup to go 7 games.

    game 6 close-out games are great spots for powerhouse teams who are clearly the better team but we do not have that here, we have an almost dead-even matchup.

    we will pass on this game.........................................
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    MY LINES...........................................

    Wiz -3.03 over Celtics

    we don't use my lines in closeout games. we back the team to win the series, this series is the closest matchup of any game in the 1st or 2cd round (Celtics by .32 over Wiz) according to key stats which have high correlations and high predictive value

    It would make alot of sense for the game with the closest matchup to go 7 games.

    game 6 close-out games are great spots for powerhouse teams who are clearly the better team but we do not have that here, we have an almost dead-even matchup.

    we will pass on this game.........................................
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 7:18 AM ET #247

    LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..................................

    2cd round --- 5-5 ATS
    1st round --- 5-4 ATS

    They did it again backing the teams in every game without finishing any round with a losing record.

    Wasn't the greatest record but hey, if the worst you're going to do is 10-9 that's about as good as one can expect , some years these teams put up very strong records for the best they will do.

    Little to no downside risk backing these big mismatches..................
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    LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS..................................

    2cd round --- 5-5 ATS
    1st round --- 5-4 ATS

    They did it again backing the teams in every game without finishing any round with a losing record.

    Wasn't the greatest record but hey, if the worst you're going to do is 10-9 that's about as good as one can expect , some years these teams put up very strong records for the best they will do.

    Little to no downside risk backing these big mismatches..................
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 7:23 AM ET #248

    MY LINES.......................................

    Warriors -8.5 over Spurs




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    MY LINES.......................................

    Warriors -8.5 over Spurs




     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 12, 2017 - 7:54 AM ET #249

    Warriors and Cavs both 8-0 up to this point.......................................



    Playoff only........PR 1..........PRII
    Warriors ............16.31..........58.32
    Cavs ...................10.37.........55.25

    As it stands after 2 rounds Cavs have turn-up their game quite a bit but Warriors are on an all-time historical level.

    On top of this Cavs come into conference finals playing on a unsustainable level of play, they are off their very best effort and are almost certainly going to go down stats wise in next 2 or 3 games which when we consider this Warriors look even better.

    Using a NBA Finals formula we have Warriors by 12.73..... 5-2 since 2000 when 2 pts or better.

    This would be the 2cd largest mismatch since 2000 only behind the 2001 Lakers 26.85 over 76ers.

    Interesting that sites like fivethirtyeight are comparing Cavs to the 2001 Lakers as teams who played weak in regular season but won titles despite playing weak.

    A far better comparison to the 2001 Lakers is the Warriors who now are on par with what that team did, not the Cavs.

    And remember, the 2001 Lakers only won the title once as a team played poorly in regular season the 2cd time they tried it they got destroyed by the Piston s(yes mathmatically probabilities held-up over time) when every person including squares, sharps, wiseguys were on the Lakers and in good part because they won the title once already as a weak regular season team, but they could not do it twice as the Cavs are attempting to do it twice.

    The problem with many of these articles you see written is...........what they leave out of the article................they fail to mention the weak Lakers 2004 team that got destroyed by the Pistons.

    And this is why guys, you need to do your own homework coz you may only be getting half the story  if you don't.

    Coming up I'll break-down the all-time great players like Bird, Magic, Jordan , Shaq and Kobe and we will try and reach some very valid conclusions about these type players and winning the title.
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    Warriors and Cavs both 8-0 up to this point.......................................



    Playoff only........PR 1..........PRII
    Warriors ............16.31..........58.32
    Cavs ...................10.37.........55.25

    As it stands after 2 rounds Cavs have turn-up their game quite a bit but Warriors are on an all-time historical level.

    On top of this Cavs come into conference finals playing on a unsustainable level of play, they are off their very best effort and are almost certainly going to go down stats wise in next 2 or 3 games which when we consider this Warriors look even better.

    Using a NBA Finals formula we have Warriors by 12.73..... 5-2 since 2000 when 2 pts or better.

    This would be the 2cd largest mismatch since 2000 only behind the 2001 Lakers 26.85 over 76ers.

    Interesting that sites like fivethirtyeight are comparing Cavs to the 2001 Lakers as teams who played weak in regular season but won titles despite playing weak.

    A far better comparison to the 2001 Lakers is the Warriors who now are on par with what that team did, not the Cavs.

    And remember, the 2001 Lakers only won the title once as a team played poorly in regular season the 2cd time they tried it they got destroyed by the Piston s(yes mathmatically probabilities held-up over time) when every person including squares, sharps, wiseguys were on the Lakers and in good part because they won the title once already as a weak regular season team, but they could not do it twice as the Cavs are attempting to do it twice.

    The problem with many of these articles you see written is...........what they leave out of the article................they fail to mention the weak Lakers 2004 team that got destroyed by the Pistons.

    And this is why guys, you need to do your own homework coz you may only be getting half the story  if you don't.

    Coming up I'll break-down the all-time great players like Bird, Magic, Jordan , Shaq and Kobe and we will try and reach some very valid conclusions about these type players and winning the title.
     
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 13, 2017 - 6:31 AM ET #250

    Wiz hang-on and keep our parlay alive.

    No surprise here that the close-out match-up of any of 12 playoff series is the one to go to 7 games.

    GAME 7............................my lines

    Celtics -4.97 over Wiz

    Celtic's off 2 ATS wins and a fairly big win at 22 pts and off  3-0 ATS at home, but off a SU loss as well.

    Not the best spot for Celtics.

    Will likely pass on the game unless we see a big line movement.

     
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    Wiz hang-on and keep our parlay alive.

    No surprise here that the close-out match-up of any of 12 playoff series is the one to go to 7 games.

    GAME 7............................my lines

    Celtics -4.97 over Wiz

    Celtic's off 2 ATS wins and a fairly big win at 22 pts and off  3-0 ATS at home, but off a SU loss as well.

    Not the best spot for Celtics.

    Will likely pass on the game unless we see a big line movement.

     
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