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NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

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Posted: #251
WARRIORS VS SPURS............................................

All-time classic matchup, Spurs are 5-5 VS Warriors past 3 years. Most losses by any team for Warriors.

Warriors are the better team but are a weak rebounding team, and weak rebounding teams have a strong past history of failure in NBA Playoffs. and rarely win titles or even make the finals.

Spurs 50.8%..............Spurs better by 1.95
Warriors 48.85%

49.5% rebs would be considered good enough to win titles, 49.25 may be enough and kind of in what I call the the gray area, can't really rule them out but getting a bit to weak, once a team drops below 49% that is clearly weak.

Now, we can argue this with, there has never been a weak rebounding team rank no.1 in my PR's like the Warriors who are clearly head and shoulders above the 2cd ranked Spurs.

PRI....................
Warriors 11.6.................Warriors by 4.5
Spurs 7.1

PRII............
Warriors 55.25.................Warriors by 1.08
Spurs 54.17

PRII is rebound heavier used to measure more balance which Warriors still over 1 pt better, teams better by 1 pt or more do quite well in conference finals.

There has never been a team like the Warriors over history to judge such teams. Warriors set the record since 1974 in out-shooting opps in shooting efficiency ....... 2pt, 3pt, FT and TO's added together, in other words everything a team does BUT rebounding which is a seperate skill.

Warriors outshoot opps by ....51.22-44.82 = 6.4 %
Spurs ........................................48.7-45.33 = 3.37 %

Warriors better by 3.03 %, wow that is huge, over 1% is very strong and a good indicator to win a series.

Being a weak rebounding team one thing we consistently see is these type teams do tend to trail in the series at some point from game 3 and on,  quite a bit more so then all other teams that are top rated and do well in playoffs.

In 2015 Warriors were 49.3% rebs, in the gray area and trailed after the 3rd game in 2 of 4 playoff series.

And last year 2016 Warriors 49.75% rebs not a weak rebounding team, but very, very mediorce, VS a strong dominate rebounding team in OKC (53.55%) trailed 3-1. 

I would not be the least bit surprised to see Spurs get early control of this series and go up 2-1, it very well could happen based on the history off these type teams.

And this especially true because of how well the Warriors have been playing to this point, that will only motivate the Spur to prove they can win games VS the Warriors, an added incentive, and we already see what the Celtic's did with added incentive , run off 6 straight SU and ATS covers.

Teams as strong as this Spurs team is with the kind of all-around balance they have do have a very strong history of splitting games 1 and 2 on the road, I would look for the Spurs to win SU either game 1 or 2 and we have some really great ML value there.

I would lean more to being game 2 but I could be wrong as well and miss-out on a great ML play in game 1, so that is the debate at this point.

Powerhouse teams like the Warriors who are over a PRI rating of 8 ..............off a series with a losing ATS record at home (Warriors 0-2 ATS at home VS Jazz)  are 11-3 ATS in game 1 of the next series.

Warriors also off 2 ATS losses in previous game 1's , not likely will this team do so poorly at home and in game 1's. You can not keep these powerhouse type teams down at home for any length of time.

Leads me to believe Warriors may just roll the Spurs game 1 and Spurs bounce back and win game 2 SU.

Especially true with Spurs off a 39 pt win, the largest of playoffs.

But we do have Warriors off 2 ATS wins and a blowout 25 pt win as well, not the best spot either.

 
 
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Posted: #252
MY LINES.........................CONFERENCE FINALS....................

Warriors -8.5 over Spurs

with a 1 pt difference to closing line and ..........................2007-2016  (but not including 2014, lost that info but we did well)

off a SU loss --- 17-7 ATS
off a ATS loss --- 17-6 ATS
trailing in the series --- 16-8 ATS
trailing by 2 games in the series --- 9-2 ATS
all games with a 1 pt diff --- 38-21 ATS (64.4%)

off SU win & ATS win after trailing by 2 games or more and still trailing by 1 game or more --- 7-0 ATS


 
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Posted: #253
We have a play on Spurs if line stays at 9.5 or better, if it drops below 9.5 we have no play.

Warriors off a series with a losing record ATS at home, powerhouse teams like the Warriors are 11-3 ATS in this spot , plus Warriors off 2 series game 1's --- 0-2 ATS in game 1's, great spot to back Warriors as you can not keep powerhouse teams down at home for long.

When 2 top  rated strong teams play each other it ends in a 1-1 split after 1st 2 games far more then not. Strong teams can win anywhere even on the powerhouse teams home court, Spurs very likely to get 1 win in GS.

Tough call this game 1, conflicting info, would hate to miss a Spurs SU ML win by backing Warriors game 1 or passing on game.

Let's waitout the line, if line continues to drop, down to 9.5 now from 10.5   and at 9 it's a no play with my lines  then we may back Warriors.

It's only 50-50 Spurs win game 1 or game 2, what just might happen is public loves Spurs game 1 and Warriors roll , then public pounds Warriors game 2 and we get better value in both line and ML, and this game 1 big win  could possibly put Warriors in the "regression zone" and Spurs win next 2 games SU and the public is fooled again as they usually are  by that game 1 win.

This senerio is setting up almost perfectly. Of course if this very senerio plays-out which it very well could we'll hear cries of the fix was in when in fact history is on the side of this happening "IF" the line continues to drop.

Very tough to call this game 1, Warriors in a classic great spot to back them here, Spurs only a 50-50 to win SU but 64.4% to cover based on a 1 pt diff to closing line with my lines "IF IT HOLDS), the % over time favors Warriors in this spot , but we could possibly miss-out on a huge ML play which almost certainly we will get one of 2 games.

One thing Parker injury could do is screw-up the bench rotations and possibly give more playing time to younger players with less experience in this big spot, and playing 2 time defending conf champs in GS.... will these younger players be ready and not nervous and  be forcing things a bit. ?

It could take them a game to settle in , that is one area Parker may have an advantage as he knows what to expect and has been in many such big spots.




 
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Posted: #254
The one play we will take now is..........................

Spurs to win series over Warriors +750 ---  1 unit to win 7.5 units

To much value to pass this up with Warriors being a weak rebounding team and Spurs having the common denominators of past champs, Warriors should be the favs here but I would not count out the Spurs.

Spurs could very well be in this series with a chance to win it, whether they can get it done or not, but they just might surprise alot of people and be in position to win it.

And that's all we can ask of them, just get in position and we'll see what happens.
 
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Posted: #255
Surs +2.5 games +116 over Warriors --- 4 units to win 4.64 units

LEAN --- Spurs to win series 4-2 --- +1395
 
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Posted: #256
Lines back to 10.

Looks like we make a play on Spurs, coming in about 15 minutes , let's see what happens with the line
 
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Posted: #257
Spurs +10 over Warriors --- 3.3 units
Spurs ML +515 --- 1 unit to win 5.15 units

Spurs 1st half +6.5 --- 1.1 units
Spurs 1st half ML +295 --- 1 unit to win 2.95 units
 
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Posted: #258
Spurs putting on a clinic................................
 
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Posted: #259
Powerhouse Spurs putt'in on a show........................
 
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Posted: #260
I took first half Spurs but I took second half dubs. A gift. The powerhouse Spurs ran into the buzzsaw known as the dubs. I don't see this series lasting past 5. Maybe 6. Spurs missed a very good opportunity here. Dubs, when they want, can and will dominate anyone. They control it all unless the powers that be tell them otherwise. Next time is everything in this series. Spurs lose.....they may get swept.
 
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Posted: #261
game --- 1-0 ATS, won 3 units
ML --- 0-1, lost 1 unit

1st half --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit
1st half ML --- 1-0, won 2.95 units

Tough, tough break with Kawhi going down not once but twice in the game. Spurs almost certainly would have won the game had Kawhi not been injuried. They almost did without him.

Very difficult loss to take . A huge ML and the lead in the series at stake, the talk around the league is that clown purposely put his foot under Kawhi to try and intentionally hurt him that makes it even tougher to take.

Without Kawhi Spurs are not beating the Warriors, with him they have somewhat of a chance, they can not give away games like that game 1 and win the series.
 
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Posted: #262
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Wiz hang-on and keep our parlay alive.

No surprise here that the close-out match-up of any of 12 playoff series is the one to go to 7 games.

GAME 7............................my lines

Celtics -4.97 over Wiz

Celtic's off 2 ATS wins and a fairly big win at 22 pts and off  3-0 ATS at home, but off a SU loss as well.

Not the best spot for Celtics.

Will likely pass on the game unless we see a big line movement.

 

Game 7's the home teams do quite well SU and based on history of how this series has played-out with Celtic's up 2-0 , these type teams win series a high % of time, all that info favors Celtics to win game and the SU winner covers a good % of time.

However, bad spot for Celtics coming off 2 ATS wins and 3-0 ATS at home to this point , if line gets to 6 we back the Wiz.

We also need to consider this is the closest matchup in the key stat battles, almost dead even, history may not hold the same importance here with dead even teams and a bad spot for Celtic's.

LEAN ---Wiz
LEAN  ---Wiz 1st half
 
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Posted: #263
And now the Cavs will beat the Warriors in the finals -- let the good times roll
 
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Posted: #264
Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:

And now the Cavs will beat the Warriors in the finals -- let the good times roll

If nothing more your good entertainment bob....................
 
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Posted: #265
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

I took first half Spurs but I took second half dubs. A gift. The powerhouse Spurs ran into the buzzsaw known as the dubs. I don't see this series lasting past 5. Maybe 6. Spurs missed a very good opportunity here. Dubs, when they want, can and will dominate anyone. They control it all unless the powers that be tell them otherwise. Next time is everything in this series. Spurs lose.....they may get swept.

Ha, ha, ha, the buzzsaw began only after Kawhi went down, playing only 24 minutes he was 2 pts from being the Spurs leading scorer in the game, he scored 26 pts in 24 minutes.

It's likely Warriors would of come back somewhat and may have covered 2cd half even with Kawhi in line-up , you can't keep warriors down entire game like they played 1st half, I almost took that 2cd half play myself, but not likely Warriors  win SU with Kawhi in the game.

They almost won without him and their off was very stagant, with him would have been far different. 
 
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Posted: #266
I'm just bustin your b@lls brotha. Tough game for the spurs nonetheless considering they still should have hung on. I saw a crazy stat this morning. Popovich teams leading 25 points or more in a game were 316-0! That's nuts! Much respect for ya buddy; let's get after it tonite and going forward buddy. The stat in my head for tonite is that the home teams are dominating between these two teams. Does that change tonite or do the celtics take back what they left out on the court in game 6? Diving in to it today. 
 
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Posted: #267
bump
 
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Posted: #268
LEANS --- 1-1

Home teams continue to dominate game 7's, crazy, Celtics were not in best of spots, now Celtics of 3 ATS wins VS Cavs who are in 'regression mode", not setup the best but we back Celtics to win SU game 1 or 2. 

MY LINES ...............................................

Celtics -3.43 over Cavs


We know Cavs are likely better then PR say, but how much better and can they play better for 2 rounds back-to-back ? 

Cavs playing on a unsustainable level of play, not likely in the early part of series will they maintain playing better then PR say.

We ride Celtics game 1.
 
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Posted: #269
MY LINES..............................................

Warriors -8.5 over Spurs

Kawhi is likely out, how many points is Kawhi worth ?

He could be worth up to 4 or possibly 5 pts especially in this series where he is needed by Spurs the most.

We pass on this game.

Very, very aggravating to see Kawhi go down in that game 1, we'll never know if Spurs could of pulled-off the series upset win over Warriors., they very well could have a 1-0 lead and be in great position to do it.
 
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Posted: #270
Agreed, Claw! 

 
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Posted: #271
LEAN --- Warriors/Spurs UNDER 110.5
LEAN --- 1st half UNDER 103.5
 
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Posted: #272
Claw, what if kawhi is ok? 
 
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Posted: #273
leans --- 0-2 ATS


 
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Posted: #274
MY LINES................................

Celtics -3.43 over Cavs

playoffs only line................................

Cavs -3.21 over Celtics

Even if we base the line only on playoff result we still have a play on Celtics with a 4.5 line.

And that does not take into consideration Cavs playing on a unsustainable level of play.

Celtics not in best of spots off 3 ATS win but Cavs off 4-0-2 ATS and two  big wins at that, Celtics should win SU game 1 or 2.

Celtics off a tough game 7 as well.

Not sure which game though so we come small game 1.

Wait-out the line, if it keeps moving up let it rise, if it appears to be coming down then get down on Celtics quick.

3 units and 1 unit 1st half.
 
 
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Posted: #275
Celtics +4.5 over Cavs --- 3.3 units
Celtics +1.5 1st half --- 1.1 units

UNDER 219.5 --- 2.2 units
UNDER 1st half 111 --- 1.1 units
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