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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

    «First Previous 8910 ... 131415 Next Last»
    theclaw
    bobmaloogatimesfive
    Achilles1629
    begginerboy
    brettcards
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    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 7:07 AM ET #176

    game --- 1-1  ATS, won 1.7 units
    1st half --- 1-1 ATS, won .95 units

    Cavs now looking ssooo much better, but still only 2 games, many teams can look good for 2 games out of 6.

    Whether Cavs can just hit a switch and do that at will, not likely. Give any good team  team 6 games and they can have a couple of good ones.

    We'll see what Cavs can do in Toronto Last year they lost 3 and 4.by 15 and 6 pts..
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    game --- 1-1  ATS, won 1.7 units
    1st half --- 1-1 ATS, won .95 units

    Cavs now looking ssooo much better, but still only 2 games, many teams can look good for 2 games out of 6.

    Whether Cavs can just hit a switch and do that at will, not likely. Give any good team  team 6 games and they can have a couple of good ones.

    We'll see what Cavs can do in Toronto Last year they lost 3 and 4.by 15 and 6 pts..
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 7:14 AM ET #177

    MY LINES.....................................

    Wiz -7.03 over C's
    Warriors -10.81 over Jazz

    Wiz -55 over C's --- 4.4 units
    Wiz 1st half -4.5 --- 2.2 units

    Jazz +12.5 over Warriors --- 2.2 units
    Jazz ML +1000 --- 1 unit to win 10 units
    Jazz +8 1st half --- 1.1 unit
    Jazz ML 1st half +400 --- 1 unit to win 4 units

    Will lean the under in both games and very confident we'll get at least 1 and maybe both.

    Celtics off 6 ATS wins not likely to duplicate what they did in game 2, Wiz are going to bring their biggest game of the series to game 3.

    Jazz could very well be in this game with a chance to win SU and if they are likely going under.
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    MY LINES.....................................

    Wiz -7.03 over C's
    Warriors -10.81 over Jazz

    Wiz -55 over C's --- 4.4 units
    Wiz 1st half -4.5 --- 2.2 units

    Jazz +12.5 over Warriors --- 2.2 units
    Jazz ML +1000 --- 1 unit to win 10 units
    Jazz +8 1st half --- 1.1 unit
    Jazz ML 1st half +400 --- 1 unit to win 4 units

    Will lean the under in both games and very confident we'll get at least 1 and maybe both.

    Celtics off 6 ATS wins not likely to duplicate what they did in game 2, Wiz are going to bring their biggest game of the series to game 3.

    Jazz could very well be in this game with a chance to win SU and if they are likely going under.
     
    bobmaloogatimesfive
    bobmaloogatimesfive
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 7:26 AM ET #178

    Claw Cavs looking just like I told you.  They faked the regular season and haven't even heated up yet.
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    Claw Cavs looking just like I told you.  They faked the regular season and haven't even heated up yet.
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 8:49 AM ET #179

    Bob....I, like you, believe in the occasional script so let me ask you this: after the GIFT the league and the dubs gave the cavs last year and you and i know it was a gift, does the league just pave the way again for the cavs? A 73 win team with an mvp who was clearly the better team, their best defender suspended in a finals game.....up 3-1, dubs losing the last two at home? You think the cavs were the better team last year bud? We all know the answer to that....nope. but we agree, the trade off for a young team, title already in hand, two time mvp, wax to simply move to the side for lebron and the city of cleveland since they had lost the year before. THIS YEAR....I'm not so sure what happens. Last year, I was all over the cavs. It's documented. I battled and battled with tons on here; they didn't listen. 

    THIS YEAR:The only thing holding me back on the dubs is durant. He leaves OKC and gets a title his FIRST YEAR? Not so sure he gets that since lebron didn't even get that his first year in Miami and in Cleveland. Everybody pays theirs dues so again maybe durant has to wait a year? I'm on the fence right now. The regular season antics by the cavs were simply to debt the public perception that the cavs are the team to beat yet now again, I'm confused. They are dominating teams going 6-0 in the playoffs so now people are hopping back on board which is bad for business considering vegas wants their money. If the cavs are the team, they better start showing "weakness". Dubs have tried with the Kerr fiasco and with durant 'injury". Again, right now, I lean dubs but it's too early. Things will become extremely clear in the next two weeks and when I see what I need to see, I will hop on. Enjoy the rest of the playoffs bob.
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    Bob....I, like you, believe in the occasional script so let me ask you this: after the GIFT the league and the dubs gave the cavs last year and you and i know it was a gift, does the league just pave the way again for the cavs? A 73 win team with an mvp who was clearly the better team, their best defender suspended in a finals game.....up 3-1, dubs losing the last two at home? You think the cavs were the better team last year bud? We all know the answer to that....nope. but we agree, the trade off for a young team, title already in hand, two time mvp, wax to simply move to the side for lebron and the city of cleveland since they had lost the year before. THIS YEAR....I'm not so sure what happens. Last year, I was all over the cavs. It's documented. I battled and battled with tons on here; they didn't listen. 

    THIS YEAR:The only thing holding me back on the dubs is durant. He leaves OKC and gets a title his FIRST YEAR? Not so sure he gets that since lebron didn't even get that his first year in Miami and in Cleveland. Everybody pays theirs dues so again maybe durant has to wait a year? I'm on the fence right now. The regular season antics by the cavs were simply to debt the public perception that the cavs are the team to beat yet now again, I'm confused. They are dominating teams going 6-0 in the playoffs so now people are hopping back on board which is bad for business considering vegas wants their money. If the cavs are the team, they better start showing "weakness". Dubs have tried with the Kerr fiasco and with durant 'injury". Again, right now, I lean dubs but it's too early. Things will become extremely clear in the next two weeks and when I see what I need to see, I will hop on. Enjoy the rest of the playoffs bob.
     
    bobmaloogatimesfive
    bobmaloogatimesfive
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 10:32 AM ET #180

    Achilles excellent take and write up.  Good luck to you as well.  Here is Adam Silver's feeling on Durant

    https://www.si.com/nba/2016/07/13/adam-silver-collective-bargaining-agreement-kevin-durant-golden-state-warriors

    IF the Warriors make the Finals they will be playing 5 on 9, not that that even matters.  Cavs are deeper and better than last year, with more cohesion, and the best player on the court trying to prove he is the best player in the game.
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    Achilles excellent take and write up.  Good luck to you as well.  Here is Adam Silver's feeling on Durant

    https://www.si.com/nba/2016/07/13/adam-silver-collective-bargaining-agreement-kevin-durant-golden-state-warriors

    IF the Warriors make the Finals they will be playing 5 on 9, not that that even matters.  Cavs are deeper and better than last year, with more cohesion, and the best player on the court trying to prove he is the best player in the game.
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 10:43 AM ET #181

    Interesting take Bob. It will be fun seeing how this all unfolds.
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    Interesting take Bob. It will be fun seeing how this all unfolds.
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 3:52 PM ET #182

    The biggest worry for Warrior backers has to be Brown. If Walton was still here and coaching I would be ecstatic. Brown is a joke and will cost the Warriors a game or two (with his coaching under pressure) in a series where you can't afford to give games away. This is the biggest problem (imo), and not the Warriors talent (they are better than the Cavs by a lot).  
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    The biggest worry for Warrior backers has to be Brown. If Walton was still here and coaching I would be ecstatic. Brown is a joke and will cost the Warriors a game or two (with his coaching under pressure) in a series where you can't afford to give games away. This is the biggest problem (imo), and not the Warriors talent (they are better than the Cavs by a lot).  
     
    brettcards
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 9:02 PM ET #183

    Claw - still rolling with your GS play with same units with Hill news?
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    Claw - still rolling with your GS play with same units with Hill news?
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 4, 2017 - 10:37 PM ET #184

    Jazz/Warriors UNDER 207 --- 3.3 units
    UNDER 1st half 101 --- 1.1 units

    we will add to our Jazz play...........................

    Jazz +14 (-115) over Warriors --- 2.2 units
    Jazz +8.5 1st half --- 1.1 units


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    Jazz/Warriors UNDER 207 --- 3.3 units
    UNDER 1st half 101 --- 1.1 units

    we will add to our Jazz play...........................

    Jazz +14 (-115) over Warriors --- 2.2 units
    Jazz +8.5 1st half --- 1.1 units


     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 7:55 AM ET #185

    Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:

    Claw Cavs looking just like I told you.  They faked the regular season and haven't even heated up yet.

    They had 1 big win out of 6 games, only 2 DD wins with 1 impressive wins.

    Even the Bucks had 1 big 27 pt  win out of 6 VS Raps and 2 DD wins.

    My point being any team can do that, what they need is multiple attempts at it, and that is what it took the Cavs, 6 attempts to have 1 big win.

    Not a good indicator going forward. If they can pick-up a few more of those then you may have something but at this point it is not there to see.

    Blowout wins are far better indicators going forward and blowout wins over weak teams even better indicators.Cavs do not have that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:

    Claw Cavs looking just like I told you.  They faked the regular season and haven't even heated up yet.

    They had 1 big win out of 6 games, only 2 DD wins with 1 impressive wins.

    Even the Bucks had 1 big 27 pt  win out of 6 VS Raps and 2 DD wins.

    My point being any team can do that, what they need is multiple attempts at it, and that is what it took the Cavs, 6 attempts to have 1 big win.

    Not a good indicator going forward. If they can pick-up a few more of those then you may have something but at this point it is not there to see.

    Blowout wins are far better indicators going forward and blowout wins over weak teams even better indicators.Cavs do not have that.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 7:59 AM ET #186

    game --- 2-0 ATS, won 8 units
    1st half --- 1-1 ATS, lost .2
    ML --- 0-2 --- lost 2 units

    totals --- 0-2 , lost 4.4 units

    we won 1.4 units overall.

    son of a gun we did not get the ML with Jazz but still may get 1 in Utah which may be somewhat of a nice line.
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    game --- 2-0 ATS, won 8 units
    1st half --- 1-1 ATS, lost .2
    ML --- 0-2 --- lost 2 units

    totals --- 0-2 , lost 4.4 units

    we won 1.4 units overall.

    son of a gun we did not get the ML with Jazz but still may get 1 in Utah which may be somewhat of a nice line.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 8:07 AM ET #187

    MY LINES......................................

    game 3, teams down 0-2 get 4 additional desperation bonus pts. teams tied 1-1 we do not use my lines, we back teams to win the series.

    Raps -8.88 over Cavs 
    Rockets -.97 over Spurs

    Cavs off a 3-0-1 ATS run and a 25 pt blowout win, not the best spot to back the Cavs. My lines does very, very well in these spots.

    Of course it is possible Cavs PR is to low but even if we give the Cavs the Warriors PR we would still have a play on Raps at this line.

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    MY LINES......................................

    game 3, teams down 0-2 get 4 additional desperation bonus pts. teams tied 1-1 we do not use my lines, we back teams to win the series.

    Raps -8.88 over Cavs 
    Rockets -.97 over Spurs

    Cavs off a 3-0-1 ATS run and a 25 pt blowout win, not the best spot to back the Cavs. My lines does very, very well in these spots.

    Of course it is possible Cavs PR is to low but even if we give the Cavs the Warriors PR we would still have a play on Raps at this line.

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 8:16 AM ET #188

    Raps +3.5 over Cavs --- 4.4 units
    Raps 1st half --- 2.2 units

    Spurs +4.5 over Rockets --- 6.6 units
    Spurs ML +170 --- 2 units to win 3.4 units
    Spurs 1st half +2.5 --- 3.3 units
    Spurs ML +150 1st half --- 1 unit to win 1.5 units

    Spurs to win series over Rockets +106  ---   6 units to win 6.36 units 
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    Raps +3.5 over Cavs --- 4.4 units
    Raps 1st half --- 2.2 units

    Spurs +4.5 over Rockets --- 6.6 units
    Spurs ML +170 --- 2 units to win 3.4 units
    Spurs 1st half +2.5 --- 3.3 units
    Spurs ML +150 1st half --- 1 unit to win 1.5 units

    Spurs to win series over Rockets +106  ---   6 units to win 6.36 units 
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 8:21 AM ET #189

    Parker is out but Mills is the better player at this point in their careers.

    This is Parker's worst year since he became a top player in the league.

    Parker is the only player on Spurs of those with meaningful contributions to the team with a negative value over replacement player, in other words the ave replacement player is better then Parker.

    Spurs will be just fine without Parker.
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    Parker is out but Mills is the better player at this point in their careers.

    This is Parker's worst year since he became a top player in the league.

    Parker is the only player on Spurs of those with meaningful contributions to the team with a negative value over replacement player, in other words the ave replacement player is better then Parker.

    Spurs will be just fine without Parker.
     
    bertski
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 6:34 PM ET #190

    GL  TONIGHT    CLAW    not too hot on TRNTO  but will ride with ya tonight
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    GL  TONIGHT    CLAW    not too hot on TRNTO  but will ride with ya tonight
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: May. 5, 2017 - 6:36 PM ET #191

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Parker is out but Mills is the better player at this point in their careers.

    This is Parker's worst year since he became a top player in the league.

    Parker is the only player on Spurs of those with meaningful contributions to the team with a negative value over replacement player, in other words the ave replacement player is better then Parker.

    Spurs will be just fine without Parker.

    I believe another very smart capper mentioned these same things. Great minds think alike claw. 


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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Parker is out but Mills is the better player at this point in their careers.

    This is Parker's worst year since he became a top player in the league.

    Parker is the only player on Spurs of those with meaningful contributions to the team with a negative value over replacement player, in other words the ave replacement player is better then Parker.

    Spurs will be just fine without Parker.

    I believe another very smart capper mentioned these same things. Great minds think alike claw. 


     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 6, 2017 - 6:18 AM ET #192

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:


    I believe another very smart capper mentioned these same things. Great minds think alike claw. 



    Murray , Parker's replacement had the best +/- of any Spur at +11, Kawhi and LA were +10.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:


    I believe another very smart capper mentioned these same things. Great minds think alike claw. 



    Murray , Parker's replacement had the best +/- of any Spur at +11, Kawhi and LA were +10.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 6, 2017 - 6:25 AM ET #193

    We had our biggest play of the playoffs thus far on Spurs and rolled-up 13.9 unit win, sweeping all the plays..........................

    Cavs are now beginning to get the look of a much stronger team, but are now off 4-0-1 ATS run and back-to-back 20 pt wins. Not the best spot for them, if they get the sweep and cover in game 4 they'll be going into the next series on a unsustainble roll.

    Lowry missed the game last night, hopefully he will be back for game 4.
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    We had our biggest play of the playoffs thus far on Spurs and rolled-up 13.9 unit win, sweeping all the plays..........................

    Cavs are now beginning to get the look of a much stronger team, but are now off 4-0-1 ATS run and back-to-back 20 pt wins. Not the best spot for them, if they get the sweep and cover in game 4 they'll be going into the next series on a unsustainble roll.

    Lowry missed the game last night, hopefully he will be back for game 4.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 6, 2017 - 6:28 AM ET #194

    game --- 1-1 ATS, won 1.6 units
    1st half --- 2-0 ATS, won 5 units
    ML --- 2-0, won 4.9 units


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    game --- 1-1 ATS, won 1.6 units
    1st half --- 2-0 ATS, won 5 units
    ML --- 2-0, won 4.9 units


     
    bobmaloogatimesfive
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    Posted: May. 6, 2017 - 6:37 AM ET #195

    Good hit Claw -- I think we can clearly see the Cavs regular season numbers are fake at this point -- whole different team in the playoffs -- this is a squad similar to the Lakers who won with bad regular season metrics
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    Good hit Claw -- I think we can clearly see the Cavs regular season numbers are fake at this point -- whole different team in the playoffs -- this is a squad similar to the Lakers who won with bad regular season metrics
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 6, 2017 - 6:52 AM ET #196

    MY LINES......................................

    Jazz -1.19 over Warriors

    Looks like alot of value on Jazz, a fairly good size dog that should be a small favorite at home.

    LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS   (LMT) .............................

    Spurs now 2-1 ATS
    Warriors 0-2 ATS

    We did fade the Warriors twice this round and are 2-0  doing such, but 0-2  1st half and 0-2 ML.

    We are now 2-1 fading a Largest Mismatch Team in 1st and 2cd round with all 3 fades on Warriors.

    Tougher play tonight with Warriors off 2 ATS losses, will lean Jazz at this time and post any plays later. 

    May take some small action again on Jazz including ML.

    Couple of things could happen, Warriors could get the cover breaking their 0-2 ATS run then we could back Jazz game 4 , or Jazz could cover and if they win SU we'd come on Warriors with a stronger play game 4.

    Warriors would then be off 3 ATS losses and a SU loss, great spot to back LMT. 

    Not really sure which of those senerio's  will go down, likely will be one, but the best case for us as far as better plays down the road  is Jazz winning SU , would hate to see Jazz win SU and we miss the ML and ATS score , will go over a few things and check back later.

    Will get home early today so should have time.
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    MY LINES......................................

    Jazz -1.19 over Warriors

    Looks like alot of value on Jazz, a fairly good size dog that should be a small favorite at home.

    LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS   (LMT) .............................

    Spurs now 2-1 ATS
    Warriors 0-2 ATS

    We did fade the Warriors twice this round and are 2-0  doing such, but 0-2  1st half and 0-2 ML.

    We are now 2-1 fading a Largest Mismatch Team in 1st and 2cd round with all 3 fades on Warriors.

    Tougher play tonight with Warriors off 2 ATS losses, will lean Jazz at this time and post any plays later. 

    May take some small action again on Jazz including ML.

    Couple of things could happen, Warriors could get the cover breaking their 0-2 ATS run then we could back Jazz game 4 , or Jazz could cover and if they win SU we'd come on Warriors with a stronger play game 4.

    Warriors would then be off 3 ATS losses and a SU loss, great spot to back LMT. 

    Not really sure which of those senerio's  will go down, likely will be one, but the best case for us as far as better plays down the road  is Jazz winning SU , would hate to see Jazz win SU and we miss the ML and ATS score , will go over a few things and check back later.

    Will get home early today so should have time.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 6, 2017 - 7:08 AM ET #197

    Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:

    Good hit Claw -- I think we can clearly see the Cavs regular season numbers are fake at this point -- whole different team in the playoffs -- this is a squad similar to the Lakers who won with bad regular season metrics

    Lakers did win the title 1 time, in 2001 but were still about even with 76ers in the finals,   but the 2cd time they tried to do such the Pistons were much better then the Lakers by a fairly large amount and they  layed a beat-down on them.

    That Pistons matchup is more similar to Cavs this year with Warriors and Spurs far better then Cavs and it would also be Cavs 2cd attempt at such, just like the Lakers.

    I still remember that year as I called for Pistons to win title at 10-1 before playoffs and called for Pistons to beat the Lakers in finals and back Pistons in every game VS Lakers .

    This year is very similar as many were saying the same thing they are saying now about the Cavs, they were saying how the Lakers already did it once in 2001 .

    Another big, big, huge difference is in 2001 Lakers destroyed  teams in playoffs, they produced the highest playoff ratings I've ever seen, by far.

    Lakers in 2004 were not close nor are the Cavs close to that level of play in the playoffs.

    And 2001 Lakers played a not very good 76ers team in the finals and the Cavs won their title as a weak regular season team VS a far stronger opp, but they got Green suspension, Bogurt injury and possible Curry was not 100% and now Warriors have Durant, big, big differences in those situations.

    Cavs look better then regular season but I don't see them winning the title.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:

    Good hit Claw -- I think we can clearly see the Cavs regular season numbers are fake at this point -- whole different team in the playoffs -- this is a squad similar to the Lakers who won with bad regular season metrics

    Lakers did win the title 1 time, in 2001 but were still about even with 76ers in the finals,   but the 2cd time they tried to do such the Pistons were much better then the Lakers by a fairly large amount and they  layed a beat-down on them.

    That Pistons matchup is more similar to Cavs this year with Warriors and Spurs far better then Cavs and it would also be Cavs 2cd attempt at such, just like the Lakers.

    I still remember that year as I called for Pistons to win title at 10-1 before playoffs and called for Pistons to beat the Lakers in finals and back Pistons in every game VS Lakers .

    This year is very similar as many were saying the same thing they are saying now about the Cavs, they were saying how the Lakers already did it once in 2001 .

    Another big, big, huge difference is in 2001 Lakers destroyed  teams in playoffs, they produced the highest playoff ratings I've ever seen, by far.

    Lakers in 2004 were not close nor are the Cavs close to that level of play in the playoffs.

    And 2001 Lakers played a not very good 76ers team in the finals and the Cavs won their title as a weak regular season team VS a far stronger opp, but they got Green suspension, Bogurt injury and possible Curry was not 100% and now Warriors have Durant, big, big differences in those situations.

    Cavs look better then regular season but I don't see them winning the title.
     
    AlexSpade
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    Posted: May. 7, 2017 - 5:41 AM ET #198

    Cleveland is 3-0 ATS yet I can't bring myself to make a play on the craptors... Can't wait to see your take on this, Claw. 
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    Cleveland is 3-0 ATS yet I can't bring myself to make a play on the craptors... Can't wait to see your take on this, Claw. 
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 7, 2017 - 7:10 AM ET #199

    Quote Originally Posted by AlexSpade:

    Cleveland is 3-0 ATS yet I can't bring myself to make a play on the craptors... Can't wait to see your take on this, Claw. 

    Just when you think a team can not possibly lose ............is telling you they have peaked.....................and have no-where to go but down.......................
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexSpade:

    Cleveland is 3-0 ATS yet I can't bring myself to make a play on the craptors... Can't wait to see your take on this, Claw. 

    Just when you think a team can not possibly lose ............is telling you they have peaked.....................and have no-where to go but down.......................
     
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: May. 7, 2017 - 7:16 AM ET #200

    Jazz got the 1st half cover and ML win but our largest mismatch team, Warriors finally get a cover on the game.

    I was back and forth on how to play that game but decided to pass.

    Will likely pass on game 4.
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    Jazz got the 1st half cover and ML win but our largest mismatch team, Warriors finally get a cover on the game.

    I was back and forth on how to play that game but decided to pass.

    Will likely pass on game 4.
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