NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

There;s some very interesting story-lines this postseason..................

 We have LBJ and  his stumbling, bumbling Cavs who don't seem to value the regular season much, can they repeat VS powerhouse teams in the West ?

We have the Warriors and Durant, will they get it done ?

And the Spurs after Timmie , what will they do without him ?

Harden VS Westbrook, the top 2 MVP players in the 1st round.

The no. 1 seeded weak Celtics, what's up with that ?

How bout those Utah Jazz ? What got into them ?

We'll try and cover these topics and more.

But 1st up.........................................

POWER RATINGS I.................................................

shooting efficiency carries alot of weight with this PR.

1   Warriors 11.6

2  Spurs  7.1

3. Jazz  4.79

4. Clippers 4.32

5  Rockets 4.07

6  Raptors 3.93

7. Cavs 3.05

8  Celtics 2.48

9  Wizards 1.51

10 OKC .61

1 Warriors 55.25

2 Spurs 54.17

3  Jazz 52.93

4  Raptors 52.58

5  Rockets 52.44

6  OKC 52.44

7  Clippers 51.67

8  Bulls 51.08

9  Cavs 50.87

10  Wizards 50.67

11  Grizz 50.62

12  Celtics 50.43

13  Blazers  49.93

14  Hawks  49.59

15   Bucks  49.33

16   Pacers 49.04

2 TEAMS WITH COMMON DENOMINATORS OF PAST CHAMPS

Warriors and Spurs

OUR FAVORITES TO WIN THE TITLE IS...........................

Golden State Warriors

They lead in both PR's and deserve to be the favorites, HOWEVER, I would not count out the Spurs.

Warriors are a weak rebounding team getting only 74.9% of def rebs good for 29th place and 22.8% off rebs for 18th place......................ave of 48.85%.

Just 3 teams have won the title since 1974 the 1st year of rebounding def team stats, Rockets did it twice and Heat did it in 2013 but there were no good teams that were not weak rebounding teams in 2013 other then OKC who lost Westbrook to injury in the 1st round.

One of my truly great disappointments when Westbrook went down as I was one of only a small handful of guys on the site to call for a OKC title.

So basically only done twice both by Rockets. And what it took for the Rockets to win the title was alot of luck, they trailed in the series from the 3rd game or beyond in 4 of 8 series needed to win  those 2 titles, or 50%

All other champions trailed in just 10-15% of their series.

But we can counter this argument with..................... the Warriors are the very first team to lead the lead in both PR's as a weak rebounding team, credit to their incredible shooting efficiency, out-shooting opps by a whopping 6.4%, a new record since 1974 anyways.

LBJ does not seem to value the regular season the way other great players did, like MJ, Bird or Kobe who had the killer instinct and went for the jugular  in regular season.

It sure does seem to be true, but what about the finals ?

Did LBJ's teams perform better then regular season ?

If we look at both PR's combined, teams with a 1.5 difference or better are 23-5 (82.1%)at winning the series since 1980 the first year Bird and Magic came into the league and changed the way the game was played into a passing game. 

LBJ has had 4 final series in which his team was the inferior team by 1.5 or more, 2007 Spurs, 2014 Spurs 2015 Warriors and 2016 Warriors and he is 1-3 or 25%.

All inferior teams since 1980 have won 17.9% of series about right where LBJ is with his sample of 4 games. He could be 0-4 or 0% or he could be 1-3 or 25%. Or he could be 2-2, 50% but he landed on the closest possible record to all other teams which is 1-3 or 25% comparable to the 17.9% of all other teams.

LBJ has not done anything all other teams have done that were inferior teams by a large enough amount such as 1.5

If he makes the finals and losses he is now 20%, now that's interesting isn't it ?

Because he beat the mighty Warriors last year, a record setting team at that and did it by over-coming a 3-1 hole and because he does have a history of playing down in regular season many, many people are extremely over-reacting to this and think they've found the pot of gold with LBJ , hey just ride him to the title, it'll be that easy.

What they found was foolsgold, the likihood LBJ can take mathmatically inferior team to the title in back to back years is very, very low %, because he did it once does not in anyway give him a better chance to do it a 2cd time, HISTORY SPEAKS LOUD AND CLEAR on this matter as very few teams in any sport could do it .

INFO by itself has no value, it's how you use the info that gives it value.

My hats off big-time to LBJ if he can pull off a repeat, but I'd have to see it to believe he can.

largest mismatch across 4 of the 5 key stat battles is...........Warriors.

THE MOST OVERVALUED TEAM IS..................Rockets by 1.7.

THE MOST UNDERVALUED TEAM IS...............Jazz by .85

In other words Rockets play on the court if 1.7 pts below their point margin while the Jazz are better then their pt margin by .85 pts.

LARGEST VALUE MISMATCH IS..................................

OKC over the Rockets.

We have 2 teams in the 1st round as our largest mismatch teams............Warriors and OKC.

If we back these teams in every game of the series.......................

2016 - 1st round 7-4 ATS, 2cd 7-5 ATS

2015 - 1st 5-3 ATS, 2cd 7-5 ATS

2013 - 1st 6-4 ATS, 2cd 7-4 ATS

2012 - 1st 9-4 ATS, 2cd 10-5 ATS

2011 - 1st 10-5 ATS, 2cd 8-5 ATS

2010 - 1st 6-5 ATS, 2cd 5-3 ATS 

As incredible as it may sound we have not had a single losing round backing this method, I misplaced the 2014 results but it is more of the same both winning rounds.

That's alot of action with little to no downside risk, we just need to stay the course with the info.

It's only a matter of time before with end with a losing round but we stay the course with the info and we'll be just fine.

LAST 2 YEARS..............................

4-2 ATS off 2 or 3 ATS losses

7-5 ATS off SU lose

3-4 ATS off 2 or 3 ATS wins.

Our better plays seem to be off ATS and SU losses not wins. Stay the course with the info.

Rank just 8th and 12th in both PR's, they are most likely the weakest no.1 seed since 1980, certainly one of the weakest, I don't have the info at my fingertips but do know that weak no.1 seeds do not do well in the 1st round.

People still to this day talk about Grizz beating no. 1 seeded Spurs many years ago, Spurs were a weak no.1 seed. 

Remember the 67 win Mavs 1st round loss to Warriors ? Yep another weak team, in fact they were the 2cd worst 65 game winner in the single most important area, FG % differential, out-shooting opps by just over 1% when all other 65 game winners were over 3%. Warriors this year are 6%.

Celtics FG% diff  - .4% good for 11th. That's 4/10 of 1 %. Dreadful for a no. 1 seed all though they do make up for it somewhat with alot of 3's, but they are a weak rebounding team on top of that getting 48.3% of rebs. 27 on def rebs and 25 off rebs.

Celtics have little to no chance to win the title. Not a wise investment backing this team to win title.

No.1 seeded weak teams like the Celtics do have some history of being taken out in the 1st round.

Warriors over Blazers by 5.71

Spurs over Grizz by 3.08

Raps over Bucks by 1.33

Celtic's over Bulls by 1.3

Rockets over OKC by 1.27

Cavs over Pacers by 1.07

Wiz over Hawks by .7

Jazz over Clippers by .39

The closest matchup of all 1st round games is Jazz/Clippers, surprise, surprise boys as I look around the site many here think it is a lock Clippers will win this series but the info suggest otherwise.

These closest matchups have a history of upsets.

Be careful what you wish for .

Wiz over Hawks is 2cd closest 1st round matchup, very possible one of these two series  and maybe both will see upsets.

There is only 2 teams which are heads and shoulders better then their opps, Warriors and Spurs, this might be the year we could see a number of upsets.

After the top 2 teams, Warriors and Spurs the remaining teams are much more evenly matched then we normally see in the 1st round, something might give here guys.

Just might prove to be a great year to parlay series dogs.

Some strong possibilities with very realistic chance to hit are, Jazz/Bulls to win series, nice payout.

Then add in either Hawks or OKC. 

I look this morning and the Jazz,Bulls, OKC, Pacers pays a whopping 467 to 1, even $2 might be worth a shot guys, I wouldn't go big but in a year like this the info suggest something crazy might be coming.

 

Pacers 1st half +5 --- 1.1 units

2 team series parlay....................2 units to win 24 units

Jazz +175/Bulls +375

Over a few games we'll have somewhat of an idea, although the 1st round may or may not be as good an indicator but  3 or 4 games into round 2 we'll know quite a bit about these Cavs.

If they are not consistently beating my lines, oh boy, possible upset in the East could be coming. But the problem is there are no really strong teams, Raptors are the best according to both PR's and the most likely team to do it but they meet in the 2cd round  , we may not know enough by then to call for the upset.

Bol in the playoffs....

Claw, I love you analysis but I am always miffed by the fact that you do not take into account, history, psychology, motivation, context, etc...

For instance, the Jazz are a young team (not in terms of players per se) but in terms of playoff experience as a team (together). Your analysis does not take this factor into account. Nor does it consider the fact that the Jazz play a lot of players and disperse minutes across the lineup. Rotations shorten during the playoffs, which means the way Utah beat people during the regular season (with their deep, strong bench) might not be as effective now as they will be going up against the Clipper starters (since Doc does not rely on his bench much during the playoffs). Nor does you analysis take into account the fact that the Clippers played without Paul and Griffin for many games this year (and that had a huge impact on their overall record and the numbers they put up). Nor does your analysis take into account the history of this team, its past playoff failures and the fact that this might be their last chance to do something special. Anyway, that is my two cents, for what it is worth. Otherwise, great analysis and I enjoyed reading it.

Claw,

   a newbie question:  Bookmaker quotes the Bulls @ +351 for the Celtic series and the Jazz@ + 199 in their series and yet a parlay is only 12.4 to 1. I love your call on this parlay. What should be the parlay odds? thank you 

Satchmo,

   thanks