NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

LeBron might score over 30 points but do you think the Celtics will score another 18 three point shooters and won't miss a few?

UNDER 106.5 1st half --- 1.1 units

Wait-out the line on Celtics , see if we can get +16 and +12 1st half. 

Celtics +16 over Cavs --- 2.2 units

Celtics +12 1st half --- 1.1 units

Both those Cavs juiced at -115 with the 115.5 and 11.5 so thought we had a good chance to go higher.

LEAN --- Celtics ML 1st half +840

Cavs in regression mode could carry over to 1st half and Celtics could lead at halftime.

Cavs likely win the game but could be very close but Cavs should pull it out if it's that close.

1st half 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

totals 2-0, won 3 units

leans --- 1-0 with a +840 ML.

game 5 I could see going either way, may pass on the game.

Celtics -3.43 over Cavs

Thomas out and we know Cavs are much better then regular season.

Cavs off 2 ATS losses but Celtics off 2 ATS home losses and back at home.

What are the chances the home team losses every game ATS this series ?

What are the chances Cavs lose 3 straight ATS ?

The better chance is Cavs losing 3 straight ATS. This does happen with teams off entering the  "regression zone"  but the 3rd game is the lowest % game of the 3 unless the team is 1-1 ATS coming into that 3rd game which the Cavs are 0-2 ATS. 

Very interesting about regression, once a team gets that 3 ATS loss then it is time to back them ATS the next 3 games, which means if Cavs lose ATS tonight that sets-up a great spot to back them game 1 of the finals.

And with the Warriors off 3 ATS wins and a 36 pt blowout win, their largest win off the playoffs that is a great spot to back the Cavs as well.

That 36 pt win for Warriors came when ? In the exact same spot as the Cavs will be in game 1 of finals if they lose ATS game 5.

Warriors enter "regression zone" coming into Jazz series, lost 2 straight ATS then won 2 straight then lost game 1 VS Spurs, their 3rd loss, what happened next ? 36 pt blow-out win, their largest win of the playoffs, and they won 3 straight ATS, very common over history.

Unfortunately guys I just missed that play and still kicking myself over it as I have so many different methods and little time between games to keep up sometimes I miss a few  things each year , very aggravating to say the least.

This is also why I am very confident the fix is not in because these games continue to play-out the same ways decade after decade and they do it in every sport I track in very similar ways , now, how would that be possible ? 

Is the fix so sophisticated that all the different leagues are into it together to fix the exact same spots ?

Or is it math ?

I love you Claw -- and most years your numbers are perfect -- but as I showed you the Cavs faked regular season and outperformed your evaluation all but 1 game this playoffs -- they were 36 points off you expectation last night

No question Cavs better then regular season and reason I passed on game with only a lean.

I will have alot more info on teams like the Cavs coming soon. And we can see what LBJ and Cavs have done is nothing out of ordinary but hard to predict.

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Cavs now off a 33 pt blowout win, 

Warriors off 3 ATS wins and a blowout 36 pt win.

Cavs a better play off their 3rd ATS loss coming out of regression.

Warriors off 3 ATS losses game 1 of series. Great spot to back a powerhouse team like the Warriors.

PR I

Cavs 3.05

better by 1.5 or more since 1980 --- 20-5 at winning the series

My Lines........................game 1 - Warriors -12.55

PR II

Warriors 55.25................Warriors by 4.38

Cavs 50.87

better by .75 or more since 1980 --- 24-6 at winning the series

And since have developed a playoff only rating based on common denominators of winning teams and teams that pulled upsets like 2004 Pistons and 2006 Heat.

PLAYOFF ONLY RATING.................................

Warriors 83.74...........................Warriors by 3.26

Cavs 80.38

teams 2 pts or better since 2001 --- 6-2 at winning series

teams 3 pts or better --- 4-1 at winning the series

When regular season and playoffs are on different teams ----- 5-3 for playoff only rating

When both are on same team --- 6-0 winning the series 

Warriors 83.74 is the best since 1980 beating the 2001 Lakers 75.31. and the Cavs beat that as well.

But this year is a completely different story as it's the Warriors who have played much better in postseason.

Shooting effienicy seems to be key based on playoff only.

Warriors out-shot opps by 8.71 %........... Cavs by 7.57 %

Teams better by 1 % ---- 5-1 at winning series since 2001

2015 Finals.................................

Warriors 3.24 %

Cavs 3.36 %

2016 Finals............................

Warriors 4.78 %

Cavs 4.88%

Almost dead even both past 2 years but it's the Warriors who have taken a huge step-up over Cavs this season.

REBOUNDING..................................

regular season.........Warriors 48.85 %....Cavs 48.9%

playoffs ................Cavs 50.1%.......Warriors 48.8%

Both teams were weak rebounding teams in regular season with the Cavs improving far more in playoffs.

What we find consistently since 2001 is teams dramatically improving in playoffs who have played weak rebounding teams do not do well in the finals. Beating bad rebounding teams at rebounds makes a team seem better then they are and is not a good indicator in finals.

CAVS PLAYOFF OPPS................................

Pacers 48.3% rebs in regular season

Raps 50.65%

Celtics 48.3%

Celtics and Pacers easily the 2 worst rebounding teams in the playoffs, does not bode well for Cavs.

WARRIORS PLAYOFF OPPS..............................

Blazers 49.9%

Jazz 51.05%

Spurs 50.8%

Warriors played 2 teams almost at 51% while Cavs played 2 teams almost 48%.

Warriors --- (off) 51.22 - (def) 44.82 = 6.4%

Cavs --- 50.04 - 48.07 = 1.97%

REBOUNDS..............................

Cavs 48.9 %

Warriors 48.85%

Better def team in shooting effeinicy --- 23-14 since 1980

Better off team --- 20-17 since 1980

Better def team by 1% --- 11-3

Better off team by 1% --- 14-11

Better team by 1% or more in shooting EFF --- 15-4

The info strongly suggest defense wins championship not offense.

OK, we know Cavs are better then regular season, so let's compare playoffs and see exactly where the Cavs biggest improvement came from during their playoff run.

Cavs regular season.... 50.04- 48.07

Cavs playoff only --- 54.74% - 47.17%

Cavs improved a small amount on def by less then 1% but their huge improvement was on the offensive side of the ball, a whopping 4.7% improvement.

The Cavs improvements  in playoffs come from offense and beating weak rebounding teams at rebounding.

Both areas are not good indicators for the Cavs in the finals.

And let's remember, Warriors have been on a mission since losing to the Cavs the way they did last year, Green suspension, Bogurt injury and Curry possibly not 100% and blowing a 3-1 lead.

And when you give the better team that extra incentive to win it usually bodes quite well for them.

IT'S ALL WARRIORS IN THIS YEARS NBA FINALS.............................

Game pace is up from last years playoffs , FG% is up on 2 pt shots and up on 3 pt shots only slightly but what is up dramatically is 3 pt atts.

Last year saw 9 teams taKe under 30% of all their shots as 3 pters. 

This year just 4 teams took under 30% of all shots as 3pt atts IN PLAYOFFS

Rockets went from 33.3% last years playoffs to a whopping 45.2 % this year.

Blazers from 35.1 to 38 %.

Celtics from 35.2% to 41.3%.

Cavs from 37% to 41.3 %

Warriors from 37.9 to 36.4, yea they took slightly more 2's.

Spurs from 23.2 to 28.2

Just think not so many years ago the Spurs 28.2% would have been one of the highest % of 3 point shots in history but today pales in comparison to what other teams are doing and one of only 4 teams under 30%.

Crazy what the game has become. 

I still think the Warriors have the best balance between 2 pt and 3 pt  shots, taking to many 3's is still not a good thing, it's to difficult to be consistent from long range but maybe players  are getting so much better they can be more consistent  but I'm not sold on it at this time.

Look what the great 3 pr shooting Warriors did last year when they lost a 3-1 lead.

Warriors are very likely the best 3 pt shooting team in history and had moments of failure.

Look what happened to Spurs in 2013 when Green and Neal both shot lights-out on 3's, over 60% or such great shooting,   then in games 6 and 7 shot like 18%. Spurs grabbed the lead in series when they shot lights-out but lost when they could not sustain that torrid pace they were on.

And once a team shots well on 3's they will not stop because they missed a few, and then when that turns into 18% with many attempts it will not bode so well for the team.

we very well could see this playout for the Cavs who likely will not sustain what they've done on 3's up to now.

Live by the 3 die by the 3

Warriors just have the better balance between 2's and 3's and are the better 3 pt shooting team

I like a lot of what I read from you but this post is especially good. It makes total sense. It very well could be the diffference this year in the finals. Both teams shoot the 3 very well but it seems as if the dubs do not rely on it as much as the Cavs do. Unless the Cavs all of the sudden transform their game, they could have some issues. Any information on rebounds and transition points because I feel whoever controls these two stats will increase their chances greatly as well?With these two teams being as good as they are, we will have to find as many chinks in the armor as possible here. Good stuff claw