NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

No narrative?... KD winning his 1st title or how about Mike Brown beating the Queen and Dan Gilbert for a title. ..Once the Warriors are up 2-0 the narrative will be to go 16-0 and sweep the playoffs even more so against the crying Queen.  You are one sided with the Cavs narrative. Quit being delusional.  This is by far the easiest winner of the series to pick... all statistics and metrics point to the Warriors and it's not even close... barring injury or suspension.. this will be a one sided Dubs series.  Revenge is best served cold.  Dubs will run it up and embarrass the Cavs. 

ESPN can be right in NBA Finals since it is a 7 game series and the better team wins quite often, but they will be wrong on the individual games and such things.

Books already reported Cavs winning is their only loser.

Remember, the ave public joe loves to back a dog on futures just coz getting odds they can put up a small amount to get a decent score which one can not do backing favs and they do not have alot of money to work with.

This is very common and the reason we have seen the futures odds change as you have stated throughout the playoffs, coz once Cavs looked good getting odds was the way to go for vast amounts of ave joe'.

They are willing to "take-a-chance" and why the books will be cheering for the Warriors.

Public has had a great, great run up to this point but as usual they will likely have a regression and lose back a good amount of their cash.

It all makes to much sense .

All teams since 1980 are 5-23 or 17.9%.

2007 Spurs better by 7.02 won 4-0

2014 Spurs better by 5.11, won 4-1

2015 Warriors better by 10.09, won 4-2

2016 Warriors better by 7.72, LBJ's only win 4-3.

In the 3 series he lost was 12-3 in games and his only win was in a game 7, 4-3.

This series very similar to 2014 Spurs who crashed in 2013 VS LBJ and came-back with a vengance in 2014 laying a behind-the-woodshed-beatdown on the LBJ led Heat...4-1.

2013 Heat by 3.44 over Spurs but Spurs almost, should-of, would-of-could-of pulled off the upset but did not.

Warriors on a very similar mission here and the much better team just like the 1014 Spurs.

When playing on an inferior team by 1.5 points or better.

Bird ..... 0-2, lost to 85 & 87 Lakers, the Lakers 2 best teams.

Magic..... 0-2, lost to 83 Moses/DR J 76ers and 91 Bulls.

MJ .......0-0, never played on an inferior team by 1.5 or more, never played any opp was better in both PR's by any amount. MJ's bulls were always better in at least 1 of the 2 PR's.

Ducan..... 0-1, losing to 2013 Heat

Shaq & Kobe .....0-1, losing to 2004 Pistons, Pistons by 4.63 and a 4-1 domination over the Lakers a huge surprise to most 

Kobe .....0-1, losing to 2008 Celtics,, Celtics by 6.5 and a 4-2 winner destroying the Lakers in the game 6 closeout by a huge amount, one of the largest margins in history.

Shaq ......1-0 beating the 2006 Mavs, but Shaq past his prime and it was Wade's team and domination that won the finals, but hey Shaq was a part of it.

These all-time greats won at a 1-7 or  12.5% rate when playing on an inferior team by a fairly good amount. 

1-7 combined with LBJ's 1-3 = 2-10 or 16.7% almost exactly what all other teams have done,

By looking at the data we can reach a pretty valid conclusion that...............

When a all-time great plays on the better team he wins...................

When a all-time great plays on an inferior team he loses.......................

BACK THE BETTER TEAM....................................

This playout over and over again in all sports I follow and I just did a very similar write-up prior the the NFC CHampionship game as to why the right play was on Ryan and the Falcons not Rodgers and the Pack.

The better team here is the Warriors in both the regular season and the playoffs and they have a mission and it may not end well for the all-time great........................................

To apply this............if we look at LBJ's run throught the east in his 7 trips to finals he rarely has faced a team with common denominators of past champs, he has not since coming to Cleveland, he may have with the Heat, 1 year the Bulls were ranked no.1 but I think Rose may have been injuried that year.

One thing we do know is LBJ has not really played any very good teams in east, very similar to Magic making the finals 8 of 10 years in 80's but not winning when playing the better team.

A team can win the title playing weak teams but not if you play those weak teams weaker then your opp played better teams.

Warriors off 3 ATS wins and a blowout win, Cavs off 1 ATS blowout win.

Warriors off 0-3 ATS in game 1's, hard to see Warriors not coming up big in at least 1 game 1. But not the best of spots off 3 ATS wins

I wouldn't be surprised to see Cavs win SU in game 1 or 2  especially if Warriors cover game 1 and would then be off 4 ATS wins.

The better rebounding team in regular season as a road team in finals does win SU in game 1 or 2 quite often, , Cavs only very slightly better but we must remember Cavs did not play hard either and are much better then regular season.

We also know that when weak rebounding teams like the Warriors win the title they do trail in the series at some point from the 3rd game and on,  at a much higher rate then when teams not weak rebounding teams.

Which would lead us to believe it could very well be possible for Cavs to get the series lead early but Warriors to bounce back and win series.

LEAN --- Warriors to trail in series but win series +335

If Cavs do get a SU win in one of 1st 2 games we will get much better series odds to play the Warriors as Cavs will gain home court.

Warriors roll game 1 after going 0-3 ATS in their other game 1's, Cavs 3 pt shooters could not maintain their torrid pace , shooting 35.8% after hitting almost 44% coming in and the game went under as we expected.

Now we have a large line adjustment with the line up to 9 pts, we always take the extra points and fade these adjustments if it holds at 9 or better.

When road team is the better rebounding team , the better rab team has covered 11 of 14 times in either game 1 or game 2 since 1980.

MY LINES....................................

Warriors - 12.55 over Cavs.........game 2

game 2 we only back teams off an ATS loss

NBA Finals Version of MY LINES..............................

we give 2 points for every game a team trails.

Warriors -10.55

1992 -2016 with a 2.5 diff to closing line --- 8-2 ATS

2000-2016 with a 1.5 diff --- 8-2 ATS 

We know Cavs are much better then their PR says , even if we give Cavs PR  the Warriors barely qualify as a play with a -9 line. 

Line seems a bit inflated with the large adjustment by books.

Public on a monster 43-27 ATS roll and a recent 5-2 ATS run  coming into game 1,and then public  backing the Cavs game 1 and losing.

 Now at this point anyway jumping ship with 75% on Warriors, much like we talked about, public likely going down this finals.

Public on a strong roll backing overs took the overs game 1 and lost and now jump ship again backing the under.

And we have a large line adjustment on the total as well with the books dropping the total pts after low scoring game 1.

Best case public can hope for is 1-1 and maybe another 0-2 ride for the public after their incredible run thus far.

LEAN Cavs +9..........game 2

Warriors off 4 ATS wins and a big 22 pt win, not a good spot to back the Warriors tonight.

One thing we can not rule out is Warriors being on a mission to not let up because of last season's 3-1 come-back by Cavs.

We already saw what happened when Celtics got on a mission after the death of Thomas's sister and they won 6 straight ATS.

Spurs in 2014 finals in a similar spot as Warriors rolled LBJ's Heat 4-1 to win title.

We can never count out the better team on a mission, however, history bodes well for Cavs tonight being the better reb team and Warriors coming off 4 ATS wins and a large line adjustment on Warriors and the public coming off a great playoffs still taking the Warriors even with the inflated line adjustment.

We''l take some small action on Cavs but let's wait out the line untill just before game time.

Cavs shot the ball terrible again from 3's, under 28%

Their big improvement in playoffs was offensive, not defensive and was not sustainable the way they shot 3 pters at almost 44%.

But now back at home and down 2-0 and after having a regression on 3's very likely Cavs play much better in game 3.

MY LINES......................................

Cavs -.55 over Warriors

Cavs receive 4 additional desperation pts being down 0-2.

MY LINES since 1992 in game 3's of NBA Finals with a team down 0-2..............................................

7-4-1 ATS with a 1 pt diff to closing line

4-1-1 ATS with a 4 pt diff to closing line.

Diff now at 4.05 if line holds at 3.5 .

CaVS +.5 (-115)  1st half --- 1.15 units