NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

How much is Griffin worth ? We need a line of Jazz -3 to have a play, with the current line of -6, Griffin needs to be worth 3 pts.

Jazz -5 we have a play but line is rising at this time, maybe 5.5 we could make a play but I wouldn't do it at 6 or above.

Jazz should wrap up the series tonight, this is a team hungry for some playoff success and it is right here within their grasp with very good younger players like Wayward and Gobert , I can't see the Jazz let this oppurtunity slip away where they are very good at home, they should bring a very big effort tonight, it does not mean they will always win but it will give the better team a great chance to win.,

I just read a bit of your thread and you seem like you're doing well in playoffs but at same seem contradicting or maybe I'm not understanding what you're writing properly.  You say your line for Utah is -4.47 and the line now is presently Utah-6 so how the heck do you make a play if Utah becomes -5?  Wouldn't the line have to be Utah -4 before you would make a play according what you came up with your line of Utah-4.47?  I'm maybe missing something here understanding your reasons or the line you come up with is meaningless.  Not trying to cause trouble but seeing your posts has so many views I decided to tune in but I really fail to understand your logic why u would have a play on Utah if line becomes -5 when u state u came up with your own line Utah should be only -4.47?  To be honest I like Utah tonight too if line I Utah-5 but I just fail to understand your reasons.

Injury to Griffin gives Jazz more pts.

Bulls +1.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

Public continues pounding Celtic's thinking Rondo's injury is such a big deal. It just was 90% on C's but down to 85% now, still the highest % game in this years playoffs thus far and according to one book the largest risk of any playoff game.

And that after a 6-2 run, not likely C's win here, but we still need to respect injuries to key players, will likely regret not upping our play on Bulls, it really is a super great spot with C's off 3 ATS % SU wins.

The public over-reaction game of the playoffs basically.....................................

Anyhoo, GL Claw 

YEP...........................................

C's won 4 straight winning by, 17, 9, 11, 22. Wow, pretty strong play there.

Many faded the C's including myself because the C's are one of the weakest no.1 seeds ever, maybe the single weakest ever. And these type teams do not do well in the 1st round.

One issue with the Bulls I may have overlooked is they are a strong rebounding team but very weak in shooting efficiency diff, 15th in playoffs at (-.82).

Shooting efficiency being the single most important part of the game and the Bulls were dreadful.

Bulls also 16th in FG% diff.

C's were 2.13% or 2.95% better then Bulls. 2.13% is a fairly strong playoff team, 5th in playoffs.

OKC was dead last at (-1.34), you really don.t want to back teams like this to win series, Bulls may not have been the right team to beat the weak no.1 seeded C's in the 1st round.

So we do have that as well to think about going forward.

Wiz are .92% in shooting eff and .9% in FG% diff which is better then the C's at .4%.

And that is a big issue with so many games coming so fast as I don't have time to go over things come up I may have never seen before so I go off the best I can info I have, a couple more days to go over things and we may have eliminated some of our losses.

OKC as a largest mismatch team was another case, dead last in shooting eff, I was a bit concerned about that and almost decided not to post them but this is due to lack of time to go over all the largest mismatch teams and see if we ever had a team dead last in shooting eff, to many games coming so fast.

But hey at the end of the day we did well but if we can eliminate some of these type games we maybe can do better, and that is our goal every year.

Alot of things to get to next round coming up tommorrow.

1st half --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units

Jazz were dreadful shooting very poor,but should have a good shot to win series in game 7.

Had we backed them every game.

We did pass on 1 game which Warriors won so we finished 4-4 ATS.

These type teams give us little to no downside risk just blindly backing them in every game.

They  have yet to finish with a losing record in any round.

2cd round teams are...........................................

Warriors................Spurs

Warriors win every category but 1 and Spurs get that one as Rockets are the most Overvalued Team in the Payoffs by a good amount.

Spurs better in every category over the Rockets and it ain't close.

Warriors coming into round 2 off big wins 3 straight covers and 29 and 25 pt wins, may not be a good spot to play Warriors .

Should have time tommorrow to go over a few things.

LBJ and his Cavs come into this year's playoffs with their weakest team of the past 3 years.

And they played the weakest of any of those years in the 1st round with that weakest team.

Raps come in with their best team of past 3 years and the only team Cavs played in the East that was better then Cavs in both PR's in past 3 years.

Will have more tommorrow.

Possible if Cavs were not trying all that hard in regular season but maybe it's possible this team is not all that good .  

Celtic's -4.97 over Wiz

Clips -3.53 over Jazz

Question still remains...how much is Griffin worth to the line ? 1.5 pts and we have a play on the Jazz.

But then we have the Gobert injury as well, will he be 100% ?

We pass on this game with more questions then answers.

We still would............LEAN --- Jazz +3.5

We have the Jazz in series play so basically that becomes a ML play this game .

We have no play in C's/Wiz game unless line drops to 3.5 or goes to 6.

Spurs over Rockets by 2.04

Raps over Cavs by .46

Celtics over Wiz by .32

Spurs win all 5  key stat battles by over 1 pt or better, Spurs with the common denominators of past champs, are the far better team.

Spurs did lose to OKC last year in 2cd round, but look at the diff in calibre of OKC and Rockets this year.

PR I.........................2016 OKC 8.18.... 2017 Rockets 4.07

PRII ......................2016 OKC 55.82.....2017 Rockets 52.44

2016 Surs were better in PRI over OKC by 2.5........PRII by .36

2017 Spurs PR I over Rockets by 3.03...................PRII by 1.73

Last year OKC was very, very strong in PRII and when 1 of those 2 PR's has teams evenly matched it can be a very tight series and possible upset, Rockets not even close in either PR, no comparison to OKC beating Spurs last year and the Rockets beating Spurs this year.  

OKC was better then the Warriors in PRII last season and we see how that series went with OKC  grabbing a 3-1 series lead and blowing-out Warriors in games 3 and 4.

Don't be fooled by last year, OKC was far better then anything this Rocket team will bring VS Spurs.

Because the Spurs lost last year they will carry a extra chip on their shoulders to get over that 2cd round hump and when the clearly better team has that kind of motivation it likely will not end well for the Rockets.

Our closest matchup this round is C's over Wiz with Raps over Cavs a very close 2cd, possible upset coming in one of these 2 series.

Our closest matchup 1st round was Jazz over Clips by .39 and it's going to game 7 and was ripe for the picking of an upset.

Warriors will be a blowout key stat battle winner over whoever wins game 7.

Let's look at LBJ and his Cavs 3 year run and the Raps over the past 3 years along with the best team in East in 2015 ...the 60 win Hawks.

2015...........................................

Cavs- PRI - 3.44......PRII - 52.19

Raps - PRI - 2.37.....PRII -  51.06

Hawks - PRI 4.93.....PRII - 51.4

2016...........................................

Cavs - PRI - 5.34......PRII - 53.85

Raps - PRI - 3.98......PRII - 52.68

2017...........................................

Cavs - PRI - 3.05 .......PRII - 50.87

Raps - PRI - 3.93........PRII - 52.58

This is easily the weakest team LBJ brought into the playoffs and the only time Cavs will have to play a team is better in both PR's then they are.

Hawks were better in PRI but were a very weak rebounding team getting only 47.4 % of rebs, Cavs 50.75%.

Last season Cavs strong on the boards with a 51.8%, this year Cavs 48.9% which puts them in as a weak reb team just like the 2015 Hawks  and these type teams do not win NBA titles and rarely even get to the finals.

Raps 50.65%, rebs.

Raps have improved since 2015 and are about the same as last year but have improved in shooting efficiency, the most important part of the game, out-shooting opps by 1.93% compared to Cavs 1.97%, about even there.

Here lies the biggest difference, in 2015 when Cavs had a low rating in both PR's they came into playoffs after the all-star break improving by a whopping 1.92 and .88 in both PR's

Raps declined big time after the break by -1.06, and -1

Hawks a huge decline -1.91, and .73

2016  when Cavs had their best PR's they played about the same before and after the break as did the Raps.

Cavs +.14 and -.09

Raps +.5 and +.03

2017 Cavs come in playing very poor

Cavs declined by -1.25 and -.93

Raps +.58 and +.48

Now we know there has been talk of how LBJ is not the same killer instinct of past great players and may not value the regular season the same way other all-time greats did, even some web sites writing articles on such things.

Hey a trend has develop right ? Don't you see the trend ?

Sometimes trend's develop out of nothing more then pure coincidence, there is no cause and effect to them and in these cases that trend can reverse itself just as quickly as it came.

Of course in this case the cause and effect is LBJ not valuing the regular season.

History does not bode well for teams thinking they can just hit a switch and turn on their A game. 

What the Cavs needed to win the title last season was .....Green suspension, Bogurt injury, one of Warriors best rebounders on a very mediocre rebounding team and interior defender, and possible Curry injury that he was not 100%.

And that is the only time LBJ won a finals series playing on the inferior team. He has not beaten the probabilities in his carreer.

When we look at the 1st round in 2015, Cavs beat my lines by 24.44 pts over all 4 games in their 4-0 sweep.

in 2016 by 20 pts

2017 by 8.4 pts

Wow, what a difference between past 2 years, their biggest 1st round win was in 2015 when they came in after the break with a huge improvement, and their smallest 1st round win was when they came in after the break with their largest decline .

See the trend anyone ????

Possible they can hang in this series and maybe be right there at the end of a few games with a great chance to win , but will have to play very well in those spots to pull off the upset.

We will take some parlay action on Raps series .

Cavs -3.12 over Raps

We have a play on the Raps, but Raps come in off 3ATS wins and A 25 blowout with  a cover after, not the best spot to back the Raps.

Last year Cavs won all 3 home games by 19 pts or more, Raps won home games 3 and 4 then lost 6.

Raps should be able to get 1 of the 2 games in Cleveland and a possible SU win at that.

We'll know pretty early in this series if the Cavs have turned up their game or not.

A bit of a bad spot but very possible Raps come out with high energy..........................

Spurs -7.03 over Rockets

Spurs -5.5 over Rockets --- 4.4 units

Spurs 1st half  -3 --- 2.2 units

Spurs also a largest mismatch team play..........................

Raps +7 over Cavs --- 2.2 units

Raps 1st half +4 (-115) --- 1.15 units

2 team series parlay..................1 unit to win 5.5 units

Spurs over Rockets -265

Raps over Cavs +370

2 team series parlay.....................1 unit to win 2.6 units

Spurs over Rockets -265

Wiz over Celtics +160

SERIES PLAYS --- 1-0, won 4.1 units

we did lose our 2 team series parlay with Jazz ad Bulls.

SERIES PLAYS --- 1-1, won 2.1 units

Jazz got it done on the road in a game 7.  We did catch some really bad breaks with Gobert going down very early in game 1 and missing the next 2 games and then Hayward getting sick and missing 1 game and Gobert getting into big foul trouble early in game 7 and missing the end of game 6, , but we caught a lucky break with Griffin going down, all-in-all Jazz played very well and suprised alot of people.

Jazz did rank no.3 in both PR's which I am quite sure would also suprise alot of people.

MY LINES...............................

Warriors -10.81 over Jazz....game 1.

Warriors are a largest mismatch team but come into this game off 3 ATS wins and 2 blow-out wins of 29 and 25 pts.

Warriors failed to cover game 1 of previous series, unlikely a team of Warriors calibre will fail to cover a game 1 ...2 series in a row.

We have Jazz coming off an emotional game 7 win and as a young team may be not ready for a big step up in talent.

Possible Warriors roll game 1.........IF......that happens may set-up a great play in game 2 on Jazz with a very possible SU Jazz win as a huge dog.

1ST ROUND PLAYOFFS ...........................................

game --- 14-7-1 ATS, won 23.9 units

1st half --- 10-10-1 ATS, lost 2.4 units

totals --- 5-6-1, won .8 units

leans --- 3-3

Round 2, we have 2 plays tonight.very confident we get at least 1 win with a good chance to get both.