MY LINES....................................................
Hawks -2.2 over Wiz
Bulls -1.64 over Celtics
Jazz -4.47 over Clips
we have a possible play on Bulls with a 3.64 diff to actual line which is the 2cd largest diif in the series thus far, only game 3 was larger with the C's getting 4 additional bonus pts for being down 0-2.
And it comes after the C's were pk and the public bangs it to C's -2 , oh those naughty public joe's, of course the public loves backing teams off many wins, C's off 3 ATS & SU wins , a great spot to fade the team ...IF... we have a play on my lines.
Public is on a nice run, 2-0 and a larger 4-2 run with line movements and 3-0, and a longer 6-2 run with %'s and now C's have the highest % on them tonight at this time anyway, subject to chance before game time.
Bulls 1st home game they were -2 and now we have a large line adjustment to Bulls +2, a 4 pt adjustment based on a over-reaction to the C's 3 game run. Unless there is some info out there causing this move, we fade such over-reactions on these adjustments.
Now all this info is based on 1 simple thing.............How Much is Rondo Worth to the Spread ?
Is he worth 2 pts ?........... 2.5 or more then 2.5 ?
According to his advanced meterics I don't think so, teams have won and covered with much better players missing then Rondo, the Bulls can make adjustments and role players can play much better at home and step up in his absence .
The public is over-reacting to that C's 3-0 run and thinking Rondo is worth more then he really is, very typical public thinking , fading that thinking is the right play over the long run.
If the line close at C's -2 or better, we'll make a small play on Bulls, wait -out the line, , hopefully it will keep going up.
I should be home before game time to make the officail play if we make a play.
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