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NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

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Posted: #76
Just look at Rondo's advanced stats, he is not one of the more important players on the team.

His usage, the number of plays he is invloved in when on the court  is 5th out of the 6 players who play the most minutes.

His player efficiency rating is 6th of those 6 players.

He is not even close to be comparable to losing Gobert or Griffin.

I heard some anyalist talking about how he had a big impact in winning those 2 games in Boston, but that is more just plain coincidence then anything else.

Every game takes on a different personality all it's own , how many times have we seen a player make meaningful plays to win a game or 2 and then the next couple of games it is a different player.

Unless your a top player on the team and in the league the same player can not be counted on to consistently make a big impact on games, other players can step up and fill Rondo's void and maybe even play better and with a 4.14 diff in with my line seems to big a pt adjustment for a guy like Rondo.
 
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Posted: #77
Pacers +4 (-105) over Cavs --- 3.15 units to win 3 units
Pacers 1st half --- +1.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit


Will be making a play on the total, check back in 10 minutes before game time. Wait out the line, many indicators are roaring that something is going to give in this game.
 
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Posted: #78
Pacers/Cavs UNDER 214 --- 5.5 units 
1st half UNDER 110 --- 2.2 units
 
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Posted: #79
Public loves Cavs and over today, line climbing up to 4.5 and 214.4 now.

Public been backing the under every game and finally decided to follow the trend of overs, when they do this ussually indictive of the trend reversing itself.

And they pounded the over with highest % of bets on totals thus far in playoffs, that's how  much they are deciding to go with the trend of overs.

This game just might go way under.


 
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Posted: #80
Excellent analysis   thanks for the info
 
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Posted: #81
Like your insight, some good angles. Whats' your thoughts on the Bulls/Celts total? They seemed to play at such a slow pace without Rondo last game lotta half court basketball. I'm leaning under
 
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Posted: #82
OKC -1 (-105) over Rockets --- 3.15 units
OKC 1st half -1 --- 1.1 units
 
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Posted: #83
Son of a gun, the line did rise to 4.5 but just after I took action, unreal how that last possesion played out for Pacers, and all the off rebs by Cavs, but hey LBJ did miss the last FT to give us the push and we did get the under.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Rack-Em:

Like your insight, some good angles. Whats' your thoughts on the Bulls/Celts total? They seemed to play at such a slow pace without Rondo last game lotta half court basketball. I'm leaning under

Don't have any thoughts on total in that game.. 
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by Lowme:

Excellent analysis   thanks for the info


 
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Posted: #86
Went off your picks and teased pacers+10 and the Under. 
Thx for the picks.
Did the first half of Pacers also but for a smaller wager. 

 
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Posted: #87
 
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Posted: #88
Bulls +2 over Celtics --- 3.3 units
Bulls +.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by CookieBurglar:

Went off your picks and teased pacers+10 and the Under. 
Thx for the picks.
Did the first half of Pacers also but for a smaller wager. 


Good job....................
 
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Posted: #90
Respectfully, the NBA  is a guard driven league.  Rondo may no longer be an elite guard but he is a playoff savvy guard who has played on a championship team.  Most of the elite NBA teams have an exceptional guard ... usually a point guard.  Kyrie Irving, Curry, Isaiah Thomas, Westbrook, Harden, Paul, Wall etc.  Two years ago Cleveland was without Irving and lost in the finals.  He's back last year and they win. If any of these teams loses one of the aforementioned players their chances of success diminish more than almost any other player they could lose.  If the Clippers had lost Paul instead of Griffith their season would be over.
 
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Posted: #91
game --- 0-2-1 ATS, lost 6.45 units
1st half --- 0-3 ATS, lost 3.35 units

totals 1-0-1 --- won 5 units

what a crazy day with the way those 2 games, Pacers, OKC ended, geez louise, how could things go sssooooo wrong for us.

But hey we did catch a break getting 4 with Pacers and LBJ missing that last FT, and our big win on the under, our biggest play of the playoffs thus far saved us from big losses. Losing only 4.8 units on the day.
 
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Posted: #92
Very confident we get back on track tonight. Yesterday I suspected maybe we should of passed on the day and it turned out I was right.

But tonight is different guys, we up our play and have a great spot, but we need to wait-out the line, if the line moves in the wrong direction we may pass on game.


MY LINES.................................................

Raps -7.44 over Bucks
Hawks -2.2 over Wiz
Warriors -7.7 over Blazers

As of now we have 1 play on Raps.but the line must stay at 6 or less, if it goes to 6.5 we have no play.

Raps off 0-2 ATS at home, great spot for teams to respond ...IF ....my lines has at least a 1 pt diff to closing line and it would be even better if public drives the line down to 5, then we up our play again.

When series is tied 2-2 the home team wins the series a high % of the time. The road team needs to hold home court for them to win series. It's not impossible but not likely and that is what we take action on, the likelyhood of it happening.

And to top off that, joe public is pounding the Bucks at this time with 89% and they are coming off a monster day yesterday, 3-0-1 or 4-0 depending the number they got on Cavs, but many got the 3.5 and the win.

They already have driven a number of books down from 6.5 to 6 backing the Bucks and hopefully they keep driving this line down.

We also have a huge line adjustment on the total, opening at 201.5 in game 1 and now opening at 192.5 in game 5, a 9 pt adjustment and joe public has taken that down to 191.5.

Joe public is way over-reacting giving us great value on the over, Based on the past 2 games being 163 and 181 , the 2 games in Toronto went 190 and 206  and remember Rapd did not play well in those 2 games.

Very likely Raps will have a regression and shoot lights-out tonight , win big and go over.
 
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Posted: #93
The Claw
I noticed your handle this morning and decided your selection is what I'll go with as it's gonna rolle.

Toronto and over ... me gusta...
Giddyup
 
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Posted: #94
I will post the plays now because I'll be at work and may not get around to it before game time. However, wait-out the line, if line goes to 6.5 or above we pass on game but will play the over.

I may not make it back to post before game time.

Raps -6 (-105)  over Bucks --- 4.2 units 
Raps 1st half -3 (-115) --- 2.3 units

Raps/Bucks OVER 192 --- 3.3 units
1st half OVER 98 --- 1.1 units
 
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Posted: #95
Warriors in a tough spot tonight, off 2 ATS wins and off a big blow-out win and a cover.

If line were to go to 9 we'd fade the Warriors tonight, not likely it will. 

Largest mismatch teams off 2 ATS wins is only around 50% through many years. and then off a blow-out win as well. Will likely pass on this game.

Powerhouse teams like the Warriors are ussually money in closeout games except in game 4's where the home team will bring it big-time to not get swept out at home.
 
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Posted: #96
Home team will bring it ?
How about a Portland moneyline chance ?
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Warriors in a tough spot tonight, off 2 ATS wins and off a big blow-out win and a cover.

If line were to go to 9 we'd fade the Warriors tonight, not likely it will. 

Largest mismatch teams off 2 ATS wins is only around 50% through many years. and then off a blow-out win as well. Will likely pass on this game.

Powerhouse teams like the Warriors are ussually money in closeout games except in game 4's where the home team will bring it big-time to not get swept out at home.
Most likely,Warrior line will go to -5,-6 before game time,i would not lay my bet now
 
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Posted: #98
BUMP
 
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Posted: #99
Warriors at -8.5 with a few 9's out there.

If line goes to 9 we will take action on Balzers.
 
 
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Posted: #100
game --- won 4 units
1st half --- won 2 units

total --- 2-0 , won 4 units

Raps rolled the Bucks back home in a big sot for them.

We have two more strong  spot's tonight.


Warriors line never did get to 9 overall but did hit 9 at a few places but mostly 8.5's out there.

Warriors as a largest mismatch play but we passed on them and we could have been 3-1 on them ATS just backing them every game.

Our 2 mismatch teams are, Warriors 3-1, OKC 1-3, if we back them every game. OKC could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1, but a OKC cover tonight and we'll be in good shape.

OKC now off 2 ATS losses and a SU loss, very good spot for mismatch teams.

And we have another great spot on Spurs off 2 ATS losses, 2 SU losses and they are a play on my lines.
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