Posted:
#51
LEAN ..........Raps +2 and Raps +1 1st half
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NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017
Posted:
#53
game --- 1-1 ATS, lost .45 units
1st half --- 2-0 ATS , won 2 units
boy oh boy what a game by Pacers, things were looking very good for us, they still had a chance to get the cover at the end.
But hey, that is regression I mentioned would come the Cavs way eventually and it did 2cd half.
We still turned a small profit on the night and should do it again tonight.
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Posted:
#55
MY LINES....................................
Celtics -2.36 over Bulls
OKC -4.54 over Rockets
Jazz -4.47 over Clips.
teams down 0-2 get 4 additional desperation bonus pts
Celtics +1.5 over Bulls --- 3.3 units
Celtics +.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit
OKC -2.5 over Rockets --- 3.3 units
OKC -1.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit
Gobert out , will pass on game.
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Posted:
#61
MY LINES..........................................
Bucks -.56 over Raps
Hawks -6.2 over Wiz
Spurs -3.59 over Grizz
Warriors -3.7 over Blazers
Son of a gun I thought Bucks/Raps game started 3:30 aqnd missed posting, we had a play on Raps, already won 1st half and look to be in control for the game.
We caught some very bad breaks past 2 days with Pacers collapse and OKC losing by half a point but still turned a small profit each day. We could of used that Raps win.
Hawks -2.5 over Wiz --- 3.3 units
Hawks 1st half -3 --- 1.1 units
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Posted:
#66
FRIDAY........................
game --- 1-1 ATS, lost .3 units
1st half --- 2-0 ATS , won 2 units
we caught another tough break with OKC not covering by half a point on top of the Pacers collapse the day before.
But hey, we still turned a small profit for the day.
After a slow start in 1st halves, we've now won 5 straight 1st halves and should of been 6 straight with the Raps.
we may have a play on the total in the late game
can't believe we lost the Hawks total, they had a monster 38 pt 1st quarter pretty much doomed us. Still came close there for a while to getting the game.,
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Posted:
#70
Sat......................................
game --- 3-0 ATS, won 9 units
1st half --- 2-1 ATS , won .9 units
totals --- game --- 0-2, lost 5.5 units
1st half, lost 2.2 units
Son of a gun we could not get one of the total plays, but hey we did turn another small profit for the day.
And we missed the Raps which would of given us a nice score for the day even with going 0-4 in totals.
Speaking of the Raps/Bucks game I missed a method we used last season that I just uncovered last year, another form of ...the bounce factor.... fading teams off big wins..."IF" ..my lines picks against them.
We used this very successful last season, and had a play on Raps with the Bucks off a 27 pt blowout win and my lines on Raps with a 1.94 diff .
Warriors were off a 29 pt win but line dropped to 4.5 with Warriors -3.7 on my line.
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Posted:
#72
MY LINES................................
Pacers -1.1 over Cavs
OKC -.54 over Rockets
Bulls -1.64 over Celtics
Jazz -4.47 over Clippers
Cavs in a close-out game, stronger teams are good plays in a closeout game.
Teams with common denominators of past champs such as Warriors and Spurs can be very good plays.
But the Cavs do not fit this, and once again we are back to................. is LBJ dogging it in regular season therefore driving down the Cavs stats ?
That's the million dollar question, thus far it does not appear to be the case as Cavs are 1-2 ATS VS my lines. But that is also a small sample of games and may not be meaningful.
When the series is more evenly matched we do not back the team in a closeout game, we may actually be better off backing the other team over the long run.
My lines favs the Pacers by a good amount, this is another spot where the Cavs can show us that they are much better then their regular season says .
We lean Pacers in this spot with possible action on them.
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Posted:
#73
OKC is not a play on my lines but is a Largest Mismatch play .
Our 2 largest Mismatch teams are.............Warriors 2-1 ATS .....OKC 1-2 ATS. ...............3-3 total, we could easily be 4-2 with OKC's half point loss to line in game 3.
We'll back OKC once again, we should be able to get at least 1 cover out of next 2 games.
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Posted:
#74
Bulls with a 4.14 diff with my line to actual line, but with Rondo out.
Is Rondo worth more the 3 pts ? Giving him 3 pts still buts Bulls with a 1.14 diff and a play on Bulls.
We'll see what the public does with this line.
It's tough to beat a team in playoffs back to back on the road except 1 or 2 seeds VS 8 and 7 seeds, even then it can be tough .
Now that is IF the 1 or 2 seeds are strong teams which the Celtics are not, but Celtics are in a spot that those other 1 or 2 seeds are not and that is trailing in the series then playing on the road.
Will lean Bulls at this point.
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Posted:
#75
Jazz/Clips both fighting injuries to better players on the team.
When we look at advanced stats on which team is losing more with a strong player being out, it appears Gobert leads the Jazz in every meaningful area of advanced stats.
Griffin is well behind Paul as the best player and is even behind Jordan in 2 area's, it appears the Jazz may be losing a more valuable player to the team then the Clippers. .
With a 1.97 diff to my line normally we'd have a play on Jazz, and Clippers are in same spot of winning back to back on the road but this time VS a much more evenly matched team, without the injuries of course.
We lean Jazz.
Overall guys we've done well up to today, there seems to be more questions then answers on today's games, might be a good day to pass on these games and wait-out much better situations.
Or we could lower our plays, we could make smaller plays on Pacers and Bulls, and our regular largest mismatch play on OKC.
Will go over a few things and get back maybe 30 minutes before game time.
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