Posted:
#26
nice start Claw Pacers ++
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NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017
Posted:
#31
Day One..................................
Game --- 3-0 ATS, won 9 units
1st half --- 1-2 ATS, lost 1.25 units
LBJ and his Cavs did not turn it up in game 1, they played about like their regular season, not very well.
It's only 1 game , we'll see how they do game 2.
We're in good shape with the Jazz, needing a win in game 1 or 2 and getting it right off in game 1, sweet.......................
Even with Gobert going down 17 seconds in, he leads the team in rebs and is dominate at that 12.8, and shoots a whopping 66.3 % from 2 pt land and is the 2cd leading scorer.
His advanced stats are the best on team, WS well above Hayward and his +/- is well above as well and easily the best defender on the team and the Jazz still won without him.
Jazz out-played the Clips but were taken to task on the boards without Gobert which kept the Clips in the game.
To put in perspective how good Gobert is in rebounding, in 2000 when Lakers won their 1st title , Shaq got 18.6% of all rebs in his games, Gobert gets 21.3 % of all rebounds.
Now there's a monster.
No structural damage , he seems to maybe be back soon, hopefully is at least back for game 3 at home, they got what they needed getting a split in 1st 2 games.
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
AVE OF ALL 5 KEY STAT BATTLES......................................
AVE OF ALL 5 KEY STAT BATTLES......................................
Warriors over Blazers by 5.71
Spurs over Grizz by 3.08
Raps over Bucks by 1.33
Celtic's over Bulls by 1.3
Rockets over OKC by 1.27
Cavs over Pacers by 1.07
Wiz over Hawks by .7
Jazz over Clippers by .39
The closest matchup of all 1st round games is Jazz/Clippers, surprise, surprise boys as I look around the site many here think it is a lock Clippers will win this series but the info suggest otherwise.
These closest matchups have a history of upsets.
Be careful what you wish for .
Wiz over Hawks is 2cd closest 1st round matchup, very possible one of these two series and maybe both will see upsets.
There is only 2 teams which are heads and shoulders better then their opps, Warriors and Spurs, this might be the year we could see a number of upsets.
After the top 2 teams, Warriors and Spurs the remaining teams are much more evenly matched then we normally see in the 1st round, something might give here guys.
Just might prove to be a great year to parlay series dogs.
Some strong possibilities with very realistic chance to hit are, Jazz/Bulls to win series, nice payout.
Then add in either Hawks or OKC.
I look this morning and the Jazz,Bulls, OKC, Pacers pays a whopping 467 to 1, even $2 might be worth a shot guys, I wouldn't go big but in a year like this the info suggest something crazy might be coming.
Well, after day 1 the info is spot-on, with 6 of the 8 match-ups being closely matched, all 3 close series dogs covered, with 2 of 3 winning SU and the Pacers a missed last shot from winning SU.
The only dominate team in series rolled big .
More of the same today ???
We have 1 dominate match-up and another 3 close match-ups.
MY LINES......................................
Warriors -15.2 over Blazers
Wiz -5.3 over Hawks
Celtics -5.86 over Bulls
Rockets -6.96 over OKC
No plays at this time, if Warriors drop to -14 then we'd have a play on Warriors.
Celtics line dropped from 7.5 to 6 with the accident , no play at this time. We don't know how Thomas might react, he might play super-human to do it for his sister because that is what she would want him to do and his family could easily give him. that message and support him, we never know how these things will go.
The 2 other games are about right on my lines.
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS...............................
We have 2 plays today on Warriors and OKC. And if Warriors line drops to -14 we have 2 plays on Warriors, one under each method.
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Posted:
#36
Boy oh boy OKC took a beat-down, they were hanging 1st half but lost the cover by 1 friggin point. They were leading at times , i thought we'd get the 1st half cover.
Game --- 0-2 ATS, lost 6.6 units
1st half --- 0-2, lost 2.2 units
We are in good shape at this time anyway for our 2 team series parlay with Jazz and Bulls.
Hopefully Gobert gets back for game 3.
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Posted:
#37
Game 2's.........................My Lines
Cavs -6.4 over Pacers
Spurs -11.09 over Grizz
Game 2 we back only a team off ATS loss
We have a play on Pacers but they are off a ATS win so no play.
Spurs opened game 1 -9 and are now -11, that is a huge 2 pt line adjustment off a blowout win, meaning public is expected to overreact to that 1st game blowout, I'd fade these big line adjustments, if line stays at 11 or goes up we'll make a small 2 unit play on Grizz and 1 unit 1st half.
This game will be another test for LBJ and his Cavs, generally the road team in games 1 & 2 may have 1 game they could win SU and when the oppurtunity is there they need to grab it, that game for Pacers was game 1 but they failed to grab it.
It's likely after such a game the home team will win much easier the next game, so if Cavs are going to turn up their game then game 2 may give us some idea about such things.
If Pacers are in this game with a chance at the end to win SU just might be telling us something about this Cavs team.
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Posted:
#39
Public went 1-1 last night, they ended 52% on Grizz. After 3 days they have not gotten a winning record, likely will come tonight and they are on all the dogs at this point.
Huge line adjustment in game 2 of Raps/Bucks on the total, opening 201.5 and now at 193, a monster 8.5 line adjustment.
We also have a 5 pt line Adj on Clips/Jazz total.
We''ll take both overs at this point but need to wait out the line untill closer to game time.
I'll be at work for the 1st game at 7 pm so will post that play now but will watch the line and could buy back if line rises to 198.
Raps/Buck OVER 193 --- 3 units
OVER 1st half 98.5 --- 1 unit
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Posted:
#40
MY LINES.........................................
Raps -6.94 over Bucks
Celtics -5.86 over Bulls
Clips - 3.03 over Jazz
game 2 we back only teams off ATS loss, no plays tonight.
Gobert out tonight for Jazz, but is he worth 6 pts ? Doubt that, but Jazz got what they wanted with a split in 1st two road games so may not bring same intensity as Clips who need this game big time.
Highly unlikely the road team can win both games 1 & 2 .
We could take a ML parlay with Raps and Clips but would be laying quite a bit, highly unlikely those 2 teams lose SU.
Celtics I wouldn't have as much confidence with Thomas situation and how weak a no.1 seed they are.
LEAN .......2 team parlay Clips ML & Raps ML --- 4 units to win 2.2 unit
Will be back before late game Clips/Jazz with possible play on the over.
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Posted:
#42
Playoffs to Date ................................
game --- 3-2 ATS, won 2.4 units
1st half --- 1-4 ATS, lost 3.45 units
totals 2-0, won 4 units
leans --- 1-0, won 2.2 units
we haven't done well 1st halves but ..........stay the course with the info...........we'll bounce back and you do not want to be off those games when we do. And it very well may come tonight.
Largest Mismatch Teams....................................
OKC +8 over Rockets --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
OKC 1st half +4.5 --- 1.1 units
Warriors -13.5 over Blazers --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
Warriors -9 1st half --- 1.1 units
Both teams off an ATS loss, we should pick up at least 1 win here tonight with a possible 2, off 2 ATS losses we up our bets 1 unit.
STAY THE COURSE....................
and we'll be just fine.
and we'll be just fine.The dogs have been rolling much as the info suggested they would with 6 fairly close matchups. With the public going 3-0 on dogs last night and now on 2 favs , Wiz and Rockets , both dogs may cover again in the 1st 2 games. Public not likely to go 5-0, that set's up the GS game perfectly.
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Posted:
#43
MY LINES..........................................
Wiz - 5.8 over Hawks
Rockets - 7.46 over OKC
Warriors -15.7 over Blazers
Actually we give 4 pts for home court not 3.5 so I adjusted the lines here. With so many games coming so fast everyday it's little time to go over everything but for the most part I double and triple check the info to avoid mistakes.
Did not change any previous plays .
We have a play on Warriors if line stays -14.5 or lower, May not be home to post so just look see if line is -14.4 at majority of books on site like SBR and such , if so we up our play another 3 units on game and 1 unit 1st half.
Basically we'd have 2 plays on the Warriors.
LEAN --- Hawks unless line drops to 4.5.
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Posted:
#47
game --- 2-0 ATS, won 6 units
1st half --- 1-0-1 ATS, won 1 unit
leans --- 0-1
Playoffs to Date .......................................
game --- 4-2 ATS, won 8.4 units
1st half --- 2-4-1 ATS, lost 2.45 units
totals --- 2-0, won 4 units
leans --- 1-1
And that's why we stay the course as our largest mismatch teams roll.....................
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Posted:
#48
MY LINES.....................................
Pacers -5.1 over Cavs
Bucks -.56 over Raps
Grizz -.41 over Spurs
game 3's we give 4 additional desperation pts to teams down 0-2, teams tied 1-1 we only back a team we have info will win the series.
We lean Raps to win series , with a 1 pt diff we lean Raps, line needs to close -2.
We have a play on Pacers and Grizz. Should be able to pickup at least 1 win and possibly both.
Cavs have yet to cover line or my ,line which is smaller then actual line. But eventually they will have a regression and cover both lines, but very confident Pacers will get the cover in game 3 or game 4.
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