MLB Thursday 9/10

102-73-2

Last 10 plays: 7-3
Last 5 plays: 4-1


+7.90u Sept


Phillies -1.5 +110
Braves/Rays u4.0 f5 +120
Braves ML -120
Braves -1.5 +170
Braves f5 ML -110



Braves will be my milking cow today. They are 11-6 this year in Game 3s when coming off a loss and with average run difference of +1.64. In Game 3s this season they are 12-9. They also have a 42-25-6 f5 home record. When games are played during daytime the Braves are limiting their opponents to 2.22 runs f5 at home. Perez has only given 1 earned run last 25.2 innings pitched at home. Truist Park suppresses offense factor during daytime game and dropping the park factor down to 94 versus league average of 100. Also when games are played during daytime at Atlanta combined scored by teams on f5 sits on average of 2.32runs.

I know they are facing a HOT TAMPA DEVIL RAYS TEAM, the angle I am playing is Martin Perez pitching performance at home. If the Rays will continue to swing hot bats today then ok, on to the next game. Scared money dont make money. Good luck!

I will be on F5 under 4.5 and watch M Perez got blow up by Tampa...

@Way2Good

Good luck W2G.  

26-14 record vs LHP is bad?

@Way2Good

 Bol today

@wantwinners

recently they have been good against lhp, if you will dig up data, stats, trends from the angle of Tampa it "can" point you a tampa win. But the X Factor here is Martin Perez and that is why I think that this is why this is priced at +105/-125. I calibrated this and I think this is right, if you lean Tampa then yes you got it at good at +money but ask this, Tampa has been crushing the Braves first 2 games and performing well against LHP and the books continued to price them at + money for the third time in a row?

@Way2Good

I like this as well…Perez was in trouble early last outing and he was clearly frustrated…I look to see him rebound nicely today…

Go Braves!

I'm on the Phillies as well, Schwarb’s is a BEAST…I think they jump on Javier early in this one

Go Phillies!

WE SWEEP TOTAY BROTHER!!!

But we don't sleep with Nick Martinez easily. He has been stellar in his starts this year, 10-2 on f5. His recent 5 road starts the Rays never lost, either the Rays win f5 or ends a draw. 3-0-2. I might be crazy for doing this but I am putting the inflection point at innings 3&4 on Nick Martinez's pitching which is usually his weak innings in his f5 pitches and that is the perfect spot for the Braves to make some damage with the top of the batting order will be on plate again. 

You missed a play on ATL today, F5 -.5

@googotts

 I have them on f5 ML??

@googotts

 No, we either win it outright or it’s a push…

Hes saying you missed the f5 RL

Yep…second time through the order is where we need to create separation 

Just wake up seeing your post blind squirre jump in live bet. F5 ATL. Ml +225 and underrr 4.5 and 5.5 plus ml when tay have 2 and 3 on field 

BOL today @Way2good 

@SportsTimeOut

 that is a nice value you got there. I was sweating bullets when there was traffic on top of 1st inning and only one out but they closed that one perfectly with a double play! we are safe - so far. 

Let’s push across one run here in the bottom 5…

Cash that u4.0 and a push on f5 ML!

yes Sir!

@Way2Good

 nice call on the braves. great job this season

Swept that braves game with a push on F5ml LFG

Braves delivered all the milk we needed today! Now Phillies can't let this slip up, they will face the Braves tomorrow and only 3 games behind from NL East.