NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

1st half--- 0-1, lost 1.1 units

totals --- 1-1 , lost 1.2 units

That's really aggravating losing on the under, geez louise games just keep going over, looked like we were in great shape to get the under then a barrage of scoring in the 4th with quick shots, unreal.

Public joes are rolling on the overs, now on a 3-0, 4-1, and monster longer 9-2 run, and 5-1 run in games 70% or better, unreal.

And incredible 41-25 in this years playoffs. The public can and often does go on incredible runs, blindly fading them is fools-gold but fading them off these runs can be productive.

Cavs due a regression , game 1 was not the best spot to back Celtics even with Cavs due a regression, as Celtics were off a nice run of their own and a game 7 win.

Celtics in a much better spot here and Cavs still due a regression , Celtics should be in this game with a chance SU and I would expect Cavs to shoot not as good as past number of games, we should get the Celtics and the under here.

We also have a large line adjustment off game 1 open of 3.5, with a 6 or 5.5 line now, big adjustment based on over-reaction to game 1 , we always fade these over-reactions in the long run those extra points will pay off.

Would be nice to see a large line adjustment in the totals with everyone going hysteric over the overs but seems the sharps keep backing the unders and driving line down a half point to 1 pt.

If we see that here we up our play on the under.

Celtics +6 over Cavs --- 5.5 units

Celtics 1st half +2.5 (+100) --- 2 units

UNDER 220.5 --- 2.2 units

1st half UNDER 110.5 --- 1.1 units

We need a win here and especially true with Kawhi in limbo, our big series we could of had a possible strong score goes up in smoke. And now we are left with this series which the Cavs have turned their game up from regular season and we may not have as big an advantage, but here we very well could have as Cavs due a regression and that is a great spot to play Celtics, if we can not win here not sure we can win fading Cavs unless the enter the regression mode again.

1st half --- 0-1, lost 2

totals --- 2-0 , won 3 units

Celtic's don't have the size to keep up with Cavs, but they just might be heard from yet.

Cavs can not sustain much longer the way they are playing.

Right now Cavs looking very good, starting to look like a championship team but they are also going through an unsustainable period, coming off such huge wins is more likely telling us the end of this run is very, very near, just when everyone thinks a team can not lose they usually do.

We must keep in mind Celtics are the worst no.1 seed ever, winning by 44 pts is impressive regardless but they are the worst no.1 seed ever and eventually got exposed as such.

I still think Cavs will lose to Warriors in finals, but will be a good series, maybe.

Cavs could very well be sending a message to Warriors and Warriors sending a message right back with 2 great teams and neither wants to be the 1st one to crack.

Spurs -3.5 over Warriors ...........with Kawhi playing and healthy.

Based on the line I doubt Kawhi will play or if he does he won't be close to 100%. The line is to big for a healthy Kawhi to be playing.

We back Spurs if Kawhi plays and looks good which may be hard to know, otherwise we pass on the game.

Warriors off a big win but only 1 ATS win, not a good or bad spot , if Warriors cover here then would be a better fade the next game and Kawhi would have a much better chance to play and be healthy.

Would give the Spurs a great chance to cover game 4 with Warriors off 2 ATS wins and a blowout win.

Cavs -.57 over Celtics

Thomas out and Cavs much, much better then their regular season ratings say.

Cavs now off 2 ATS wins and a monster 44 pt win, and off 5-0-1 ATS run past 2 rounds and 6-0-2 going back to game 3 of 1st round.

Horrendous bad spot to back the Cavs........................, Celtics should get a cover at least 1 of the next 2 games and we should get another under.

Cavs are, very, very close to being another regression fade, they just miss-out by the narrowest of narrow margins , basically they are in fade territory.

We won't win 100% on these plays but we will .....stay the course with the info................at the end of the day we will be just fine..............  stay the course.................

Celtics +17 over Cavs --- 4.4 units

Celtics ML +1800 --- 1 unit

Celtics 1st half +11.5 --- 2.2 units

Celtics ML +900 --- 1 unit

UNDER 216.5 --- 4.4 units

UNDER 1st half  105 --- 2.2 units

We could be in for a very good night..............  stay the course................  

1st half 0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

ML --- 1-1 , won 17 units

totals --- 0-2, lost 6.6 units

won total of --- 12.2 units

We were saved by the monster ML, very surprised we did not get the under . I was expecting little better night but hey we got a win when we really needed one.

The public continues to roll on the overs,  crazy . But sharps keep backing the unders and losing.

Now that's regression at work, the regression I know and love..................and the reason we ......stay the course.................

Cavs were very, very deep in regression, they were back-to-back regression fades, rare to see this in history in any sport, well, actually they just missed-out on regression fade by the narrowest of narrow margins, but that's just how I use it, it is not etched in stone but the regression principle was at work.

By the way, Biggest  dog ML I've ever played or won, parlaying that ML with Spurs ML game 4 at 5 dimes payed 124 to 1. Crazy.

Celtics will likely get at least 1 more cover and possible SU win in this run of regression fade.

But had you took the 19 units won on Celtics ML and layed it on Sours +800 ML at 5dimes you'd score 152 units, wow, what a difference.

The +1800 was not at 5dimes, they were +1700, that would payout 144 to 1. Still big difference getting the online number at 5dimes.

Warriors -.57 over Spurs

Of course that is with Kawhi in the lineup, I haven't heard if he is ruled out yet but the big number certainly suggest he is.

Unless the book feels confident the public will lay the big number even with Kawhi in lineup because of how easy Warriors and Cavs have been steamrolling opps, but the Sharps would pound that big line with Kawhi in.

Can not see Kawhi playing with that big number.

How many points can Kawhi be worth ? It certainly is not 10 points, it would have to be even more then 10 to back Warriors tonight.

Warriors off 2 ATS wins and a blowout 36  pt win as well, not a good spot to back the Warriors, very good spot to back the Spurs.

If Warriors win big tonight by 20 pts or more they would go into regression fades themselves, don't see it happening .

Spurs +13 (-115) over Warriors --- 3.45 units to win 3 units

Spurs ML +800 --- 1 unit to win 8 units

Spurs 1st half  +7.5 --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

Spurs ML 1st half  --- not out yet --- 1 unit

LEAN --- the UNDER at this point and may take some action before the game.

stay the course........................................

UNDER 219 --- 4.4 units

UNDER 1st half 112.5 ---  2.2 units 

Didn't see the end of the game so don't know who made the last shot but we lost by 1 pt, and the overs just keep coming at an unreal pace, teams are getting so good at making 3 and taking many of them.

game --- 0-1 ATS, lost 3.3 units

1st half --- 0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

ML --- 0-2 ATS, lost 2 units

totals 0-2, lost 6.6 units

lost 13 units on the night, we gave back our win yesterday.

We wait-out the line, will try to post 30 minutes before game time but if line starts falling I jump on Celtics quick.