Posted:
#126
GL 
on your plays @theclaw 
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......
Posted:
#129
0-1, lost .6 units
season 11-8, won 3.6 units
Pistons got swept at home. But they did play tough every game they just could not closeout any of those games.
I suppose with could say experience did play a role.
Clippers got it done. I did see the line fall to 6 but I saw mostly 6.5's. With Clippers winning by 6.
Posted:
#130
MY LINES...................Friday
Warriors -4.91 over Rockets
Warriors in a closeout game. We don't use my lines as the book generally jacks-up the line in closeout games.
I can't find any consistency to adding additional pts like I do teams down 0-2 and back at home.
We could look at my lines as a guide especially if off by a large amount like we saw with OKC/Griz. Or Pacers/Bucks.
But in this case the line is not jack-up much from my line even if I give Warriors less pts for Jimmy the line relative to most closeout games points to Warriors.
Posted:
#131
If we look at both Rockets wins by 15 pts each.
They both came with Rockets at home and trailing in the series but more importantly in spots that historically teams do very well.
These 2 wins are deceptive. They are not 15 pt wins.
We back the team to win the series , with Warriors up 3-1 yep they are high probability to win the series.
The Warriors are the better team with Jimmy. With the Rockets very poor shooting efficiency at (-.17%) I would not expect such a team to come up big in this spot especially after a big win and great shooting efficiency last game.
play is on the Warriors.
Posted:
#133
Warriors -5 (-115) over Rockets --- 1.15 units
Warriors/Rockets UNDER 208 --- 1.1 units
Total had big line adjustment off game 5 big win with lots of pts.
But historically a great Spot to shine for the home team Rockets .
Closeout games generally go under and the book knowing this lowers the total.
Coming off 2 overs with a big win in a historical spot we can expect such a win and raising the line because of this ?
giving us more pts, have to grab the under in this spot.
Posted:
#136
Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
Gonna tease em. Merci.
Gonna tease em. Merci.
With the exception of the Knicks/Pistons Series, and the Clippers game last night, teasing hasn't really done anything but cost you more.
With that said, I'm on Golden State ML tonight. Saw something interesting in the props that let me to believe Golden State closes it out tonight. It's low enough that I won't bother with the coin flip of giving points.
Nice comeback Claw. This playoffs has worked in your favor with most of the games alternating covers for the most part. From my experience, it usually doesn't happen that way though.
Posted:
#139
Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:
Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets: Gonna tease em. Merci. With the exception of the Knicks/Pistons Series, and the Clippers game last night, teasing hasn't really done anything but cost you more. With that said, I'm on Golden State ML tonight. Saw something interesting in the props that let me to believe Golden State closes it out tonight. It's low enough that I won't bother with the coin flip of giving points. Nice comeback Claw. This playoffs has worked in your favor with most of the games alternating covers for the most part. From my experience, it usually doesn't happen that way though.
Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets: Gonna tease em. Merci. With the exception of the Knicks/Pistons Series, and the Clippers game last night, teasing hasn't really done anything but cost you more. With that said, I'm on Golden State ML tonight. Saw something interesting in the props that let me to believe Golden State closes it out tonight. It's low enough that I won't bother with the coin flip of giving points. Nice comeback Claw. This playoffs has worked in your favor with most of the games alternating covers for the most part. From my experience, it usually doesn't happen that way though.
Posted:
#142
0-2, lost 2.25 units
season 11-10, won 1.35 units
Rockets played very well once again on offense, I haven't looked at the stats yet but they put up decent amount of points.
The Under was looking good up to halftime but both teams exploded in the 3rd.
I was pretty confident I'd get at least one of those 2.
Credit goes to the Rockets who stepped-up to the plate and delivered bringing the series back home for game 7.
Posted:
#143
MY LINES .................Saturday game 7
Nuggets -2.55 over Clippers
With Kawhi back I still feel Clippers are the better team. But better by how much I don't have exact numbers on Clippers with Kawhi.
If Clippers win here I will get those numbers for 2cd round along with numbers for Warriors with Jimmy if the Warriors happen to win game 7.
I have to lean Clippers here in game 7, may or may not take any action though.
Nuggets were +2 back in game 5 and won fairly big. I did see my book with Nuggets +1 and looks like people pounded Nuggets bringing the line to -1.5.
I suspect they are assuming game 7 will be same result as game 5 when Nuggets were a home dog.
Nuggets also a home dog game 2, (+1.5, +1) and lost by 3.
Posted:
#144
Wow, Nuggets mopped-up Clippers.
Once again Harden was terrible. 2 made baskets.
He had 34 playoff games with 3 or fewer baskets. And he did it again. Kawhi played fairly well.
Speaking of getting mopped-up, LBJ was 2 of 9 in the 4th quarters of the final 2 games.
And he set the record amoung the best players having lost 3 straight playoff games for the 12th time.
MJ had 4 such losses all coming early in his career and he was never favored in any series that he lost 3 straight playoff games.
And he lost to some of the best teams ever like 86 Celtics, 3 times in finals Pistons and back to back champs when LBJ does it against inferior opps.
We really need to look at LBJ's longevity stats he is producing in the right context. He is not good, lazy on defense, not good on defense and not that good in big moments. He is hanging on to produce numbers because of only longevity while using game management to extend his career.
At 40 I understand he not in his prime but that is my point. Hanging on to do nothing more then produce more stats.
Those stats need to be taken in the proper context.
By the way, he lost 3 straight playoff games 3 times in the past 4 or 5 years.
Still playing at his age based on other players is impressive but when you compared him to other longevity players like John Stockton LBJ does not compare.
Stockton holds 2 all-time records, LBJ 1. Stockton played in 82 games like 16 times. LBJ an incredibly poor 1 time. I am going off memory here but I am either correct or off by not much.
You cannot compare players from 80's and 90's to players today with all this game management.
That's why we need to take LBJ longevity stats in the proper context.
Posted:
#146
MY LINES ..............Sunday
Cavs -10.87 over Pacers
Rockets -3.09 over Warriors
Cavs look like the play according to my line and since top 2 teams do very well in game 1 of each series.
However, Cavs off 2 big blowout wins by 37 and insane 55 pts. That's 92 pts over 2 games.
Also off 4 SU wins and 3 of 4 ATS wins.
Since regression over-rides all other methods the play is on the Pacers.
Great spot for a possible SU upset win by Pacers.
Pacers +9 (-120) over Cavs --- 1.2 units
Pacers ML +330--- .5 units
Pacers +5.5 (-115) 1st half --- .575 units
Pacers ML +222 1st half --- .5 units
Posted:
#147
With Jimmy I'd think Warriors are the better team.
And being up 3-1 few teams lose the series. But home teams do win game 7 more often but not as often in recent history has they have done years ago.
I think a 3-1 series lead is a better indicator to back this team to win series.
I'd lean Warriors but not taking any action.
Interesting that those teams picked-up great players during the season or in Clippers case a great player coming back are out in the 1st round when those teams had so much hope after getting those great players.
We'll see if Jimmy over-comes this trend.
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