NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

Pacers won the FG% battle by 2.5% but lost the game. 1st time that happened as of game 5.

Pacers also won rebounding  battle by 5. They won both FG% and rebounding  but still lost the game.

OKC won the other 3 areas and won 2 of them by quite a bit.

OKC won 3 pt shooting by 7.1% and took 2 more shots.

OKC won TO's big by 11

OKC won FT's by only 1.3% and they took 3 more shots.

OKC won the shooting efficiency  margin by 3.79% not all that large for an 11 pt win. But the winner of SE wins over 90% of all games.

It all adds up to a 7.6 pt win by OKC.

MY LINES ......................game 6

OKC -4.51 over Pacers

OKC -1.09 over Pacers .......since Jan 2cd

OKC in a close-out game. We don't  use my lines in close-out games nor do we give extra points to the team trailing.

OKC off 2 SU & ATS wins, not the best of spots to back OKC but not the worst either.

Teams as strong as OKC tend to close out in their first try especially  later in the series.

OKC did close-out 2 of their 3 series on the first try and they went to their 2cd try VS Nuggets.

I will have to look up additional info before making any plays.

  Although I do have a play at a great line with the idea I could buy out if line goes high enough for a good middle opportunity if I look into other info and want to pass on the spread.

I do like OKC to win SU. At -4 there is not much room to win and not cover at 6.5 it's different. 

If we look at our Super Teams 4.5 or better combined PR I & PR II, they are 11-2 at winning the series since 2000.

If we look at our Super Teams over 4% shooting efficiency  margin in the finals they are 10-2 at winning the series since1980..

Now if we focus only on the 2 losses, both methods the same 2 teams lost.

2011 Heat and 2016 Warriors.

Using our playoff only PR we had 8 teams over 3.25 and those 8 teams went 8-0 at wining the series.

2011 Mavs by 3.37 over Heat

2016 Cavs by 5.44 over Warriors

So when these Super Teams have lost in finals their opponent's have played better in the playoffs each time at least going back to 2000.

I think it is 8-2 winning title with teams over 4% , some teams did play each other.

I did breakdown 1 series in the 90's and found the exact same result.

What appears to be the common denominator is when teams play strong throughout the playoffs in shooting efficiency. 

Pacers did play much better in playoffs but OKC was still better by over 1% in the all-important shooting efficiency. 

OKC 5.55%

Pacers 4.34%

OKC actually fell from regular season 6.11% while Pacers improved from their Jan 2  PR of 3.73%.

Just maybe this foretold of the early struggles by OKC as they were not as good as regular season and Pacers were better then regular season. 

but now that OKC has settled-in and with OKC still clearly the better team I suspect that win this series in game 6.

@theclaw

Sounds about right.  Good luck.

Interesting, I was looking at my list of closeout games using my lines and my lines have been very good in closeout games in the finals.

I don't remember  using them but I can't remember  everything for sure about that.

Generally my lines don't work well in closeout games because the book Jack's up the lines for the better, stronger teams and those are the clearly better teams I like to back on closeout games.

MY LINES ...........

33-11 ATS in all closeout games since 1991 regardless of how much.

Teams better by 1 pt--- 15-10 ATS

Teams better by 2 pts --- 12-6 ATS

Hey, all 3 have almost exact % .........

This did win last season on the Mavs by .79 over Celtics who had a 3-0 lead.

With Hali out or playing at less then 100% , not sure what to make the line. 

Many times a star player being out the team can rally the 1st game but they don't usually  sustain that.

Depends which line we use, since Jan 2 line clearly on Pacers.

Full season line is pretty close. to even if we give 2 pts for Hali.

We could make a case for the Pacers but even if we do the spot favors OKC.

Just like game 5 with series tied 2-2 teams off a win tend to do better when combined with my lines.

Pacers using my lines off a loss. I really need to look at all games record off a win and record off a loss.

But OKC off 2 wins likely changes this.

I did see a you tuber bring this same thing up, in game 6 off a win is a successful spot. But never mentioned off 2 wins.

Last season Celtics off 3 wins and lost. But 3 wins is to many , different  from 2 wins.

Generally I like to back clearly better team in a closeout game especially game 6 or 7 is the best to do so. Games 4 and 5 are not the best, kind of need to add in more info. 

At this point I'll  sit on my play on OKC -4. If I was laying 6.5 would probably pass.

I also have a pending futures on OKC to win 4-2 so I don't really need to lay any points as all I need is a SU OKC win.

Might be kind of foolish to even lay points to begin with.

I also have my 3 prop plays with last second shot game winner made.

This is the game I thought that could be possible.

Don't be surprised if the opportunity comes knocking on the door the closer we get to the end of this game.

And realistically that is all we can really ask for.

To hit this play will take some luck no doubt and one cant hit these often but if I am correct and the opportunity is there then it is possible and that is all we can ask for with a monster score like this could be.

That would certainly be a great capper for your sweet playoffs run.

ouch

higupin niyo lahat ng malas ko - atiya

Game 7 ......

OKC -8 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

Good luck.  I am leaning that way.

Nice to see...........

0-1, lost 1.2 units

Futures --- 0-1, lost .5 units

Interesting when Hali was reported to play the line goes to 5.5 and from what I saw it stayed there.

So My Lines won again in a closeout game In the finals. 24-11 ATS in all closeout games.

Based on full season line there was a .99 diff

Based on Jan 2 line was a 4.41 line

Now I did see this before the game started and thought to buy off on Pacers but injuries are difficult as teams play games.

Would he be 100% or close to that ?

I decided to stay put on OKC.

But this is why we need to respect my line and the spot both which I did not be disciplined enough to do as He could have been close to 100% for all I know.

What is very Interesting is a diff under 1 pt is 8-1 ATS. That's  crazy talk. Full season was under 1 pt diff to closing line but I'll count that with Jan 2 line of over 2 pts. Which I think is more appropriate based on the Pacers making the finals and being tied 3-3.

Clearly they are better then full season PR's.

Pacers in a blowout, wow Pacers came-out strong with much energy, effort and determination that OKC could not match.

Pacers shooting Efficiency........46.75%

OKC 42.13%

PACERS BY 4.62%

Pacers won games at home out-shooting OKC by larger margins then OKC out-shot Pacers with OKC at home.

I think that speaks only for OKC having an historical large home/road split from what I saw on you tube, I hope it is accurate.

Therefore OKC not good on the road.

I think with game 7 at home and not playing well on the road OKC saved themselves for game 7 back home.

Here is the proof in MHO..

OKC won the TO battle in 4 of 6 games

OkC won the off reb battle in 4 of 6 games.

Prior to game 6 OKC won both those in 4 of 5 games.

Pacers only won TO by 4 and won off rebs by 3 in game 1 when IKC coach took both big men out and try to match up with his small line up which is smaller then Pacers small lune up.

So Pacers won the more possesions battle by a total of only 7 but not in the same game. The best they did in any game was +2 extra possesions in game 3.

Fast forward to game 6, Pacers won TO battle the strength of OKC by 11 and off rebs by 7. Add that up people, they won the extra possessions battle by 18.

These are hustle stats, the evidence to me is very, very clear, OKC failed to bring any kind of effort and energy to game 6.

On top of that OKC won the FT attempts battle in 6 of the 6 games. Game 6 they only won by 1 attempt the closest of any game.

That is an aggressive  Stat. Who wants to work at attacking the basket. 

Game 7's historically  have gone the way of the home teams.

However I have mentioned not the same more recently.

I did see on you tube someone posted since 2005 it is home teams only 6-6 in conference finals and finals combined.  5-7 ATS.

in finals home teams 3-1 SU I think 2-2 ATS. The only loser 2016 Warriors. Heat beat Spurs in 2013 and Spurs beat Pustons in 2005. Both home teams won ATS with my line on them.

My line in those games was 3-1 ATS and the only loss my playoff only PR was on the 2016 Cavs to win the series.

My line was on road team Celtics in 2010 VS LA and won.

Celtics also better in playoff only PR but only by 2.55 below the 3.25 threshold.

Nothing in this game 7 will be on the Pacers.

My Lines 24-11 ATS in all closeout games since 91. And to think the line has dropped off game 1 & 2. Looks like an over-reaction to me.

Will have more tomorrow  with my play on the game.

I already got down thinking I had a very good line but maybe not. We'll see how this line moves, for now I'll  sit tight with my 1 play on OKC.

This is a Munchkin query with only 3 games, therefore it certainly is not reliable.  However, it does show that a bad turnovers game in the playoffs doesn't necessarily portend positive regression.

PO = 1 and HF and p:LAF and p:TOM - pp:TOM > 7.5 and series wins = o:series wins and rest > 1.5

SU: 1-2 (-12.3,33.3%)

ATS: 0-3 (-17.8,0.0%) avg line -5.5

By parts:

Playoffs/Home Favorites/lost previous game as an Away Favorite/TurnOver Margin at least 8 worse than the previous game/series wins are equal/at least 2 of rest

One win and two losses as Home Favorites is not encouraging for OKC bettors.  The one win was by 3 points as a 7-point favorite.  The two losses were by 7 at 33 points.

As of now I'm still passing.

That should have been "2 days of rest" and "7 and 33 points."  My age is showing, and I was too lazy or in a hurry to proofread it.

Nice work dog..........

I am not saying there will be regression.

I am pointing out that game 6 was not skill, skill is repeatable. To win both TO's and off rebounds by the combined amount the Pacers won by is not skill.  They never came close to those totals in any game in this series. Skill is repeatable.  It is only  because OKC did not match the energy and effort of desperate Pacers.

That is not repeatable dog because game 7 OKC is bringing all their energy and effort, no question about this.

@theclaw

That sounds reasonable.

I did look at OKC's entire season.  Game 6 was the only game all season where OKC's turnovers - takeaways margin was greater than 8.5 and it was 11!  105 games makes a more solid case for positive regression than 3 games makes against it.

MY LINES ......................game 7

OKC -12.51 over Pacers

OKC -9.09 over Pacers ........since Jan 2

My lines in closeout games in finals ..........

24-11 ATS ........in all games

13-6 ATS .........with a 2 point diff to closing line

Large line adjustment off game 1's  -9.5,  this line all the way down to 7.

You don't want to be on the same side as this move people. I have talked about this over and over.

Fade these large line adjustments. 

The play has to be OKC or no play.

This looks like as low as the line will go.

OKC -7 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

pending play .........OKC -8 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

It's all OKC tonight in game 7 ..............