NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

Pacers won the FG% battle by 2.5% but lost the game. 1st time that happened as of game 5.

Pacers also won rebounding  battle by 5. They won both FG% and rebounding  but still lost the game.

OKC won the other 3 areas and won 2 of them by quite a bit.

OKC won 3 pt shooting by 7.1% and took 2 more shots.

OKC won TO's big by 11

OKC won FT's by only 1.3% and they took 3 more shots.

OKC won the shooting efficiency  margin by 3.79% not all that large for an 11 pt win. But the winner of SE wins over 90% of all games.

It all adds up to a 7.6 pt win by OKC.

MY LINES ......................game 6

OKC -4.51 over Pacers

OKC -1.09 over Pacers .......since Jan 2cd

OKC in a close-out game. We don't  use my lines in close-out games nor do we give extra points to the team trailing.

OKC off 2 SU & ATS wins, not the best of spots to back OKC but not the worst either.

Teams as strong as OKC tend to close out in their first try especially  later in the series.

OKC did close-out 2 of their 3 series on the first try and they went to their 2cd try VS Nuggets.

I will have to look up additional info before making any plays.

  Although I do have a play at a great line with the idea I could buy out if line goes high enough for a good middle opportunity if I look into other info and want to pass on the spread.

I do like OKC to win SU. At -4 there is not much room to win and not cover at 6.5 it's different. 

If we look at our Super Teams 4.5 or better combined PR I & PR II, they are 11-2 at winning the series since 2000.

If we look at our Super Teams over 4% shooting efficiency  margin in the finals they are 10-2 at winning the series since1980..

Now if we focus only on the 2 losses, both methods the same 2 teams lost.

2011 Heat and 2016 Warriors.

Using our playoff only PR we had 8 teams over 3.25 and those 8 teams went 8-0 at wining the series.

2011 Mavs by 3.37 over Heat

2016 Cavs by 5.44 over Warriors

So when these Super Teams have lost in finals their opponent's have played better in the playoffs each time at least going back to 2000.

I think it is 8-2 winning title with teams over 4% , some teams did play each other.

I did breakdown 1 series in the 90's and found the exact same result.

What appears to be the common denominator is when teams play strong throughout the playoffs in shooting efficiency. 

Pacers did play much better in playoffs but OKC was still better by over 1% in the all-important shooting efficiency. 

OKC 5.55%

Pacers 4.34%

OKC actually fell from regular season 6.11% while Pacers improved from their Jan 2  PR of 3.73%.

Just maybe this foretold of the early struggles by OKC as they were not as good as regular season and Pacers were better then regular season. 

but now that OKC has settled-in and with OKC still clearly the better team I suspect that win this series in game 6.

@theclaw

Sounds about right.  Good luck.

Interesting, I was looking at my list of closeout games using my lines and my lines have been very good in closeout games in the finals.

I don't remember  using them but I can't remember  everything for sure about that.

Generally my lines don't work well in closeout games because the book Jack's up the lines for the better, stronger teams and those are the clearly better teams I like to back on closeout games.

MY LINES ...........

33-11 ATS in all closeout games since 1991 regardless of how much.

Teams better by 1 pt--- 15-10 ATS

Teams better by 2 pts --- 12-6 ATS

Hey, all 3 have almost exact % .........

This did win last season on the Mavs by .79 over Celtics who had a 3-0 lead.

With Hali out or playing at less then 100% , not sure what to make the line. 

Many times a star player being out the team can rally the 1st game but they don't usually  sustain that.

Depends which line we use, since Jan 2 line clearly on Pacers.

Full season line is pretty close. to even if we give 2 pts for Hali.

We could make a case for the Pacers but even if we do the spot favors OKC.

Just like game 5 with series tied 2-2 teams off a win tend to do better when combined with my lines.

Pacers using my lines off a loss. I really need to look at all games record off a win and record off a loss.

But OKC off 2 wins likely changes this.

I did see a you tuber bring this same thing up, in game 6 off a win is a successful spot. But never mentioned off 2 wins.

Last season Celtics off 3 wins and lost. But 3 wins is to many , different  from 2 wins.

Generally I like to back clearly better team in a closeout game especially game 6 or 7 is the best to do so. Games 4 and 5 are not the best, kind of need to add in more info. 

At this point I'll  sit on my play on OKC -4. If I was laying 6.5 would probably pass.

I also have a pending futures on OKC to win 4-2 so I don't really need to lay any points as all I need is a SU OKC win.

Might be kind of foolish to even lay points to begin with.

I also have my 3 prop plays with last second shot game winner made.

This is the game I thought that could be possible.

Don't be surprised if the opportunity comes knocking on the door the closer we get to the end of this game.

And realistically that is all we can really ask for.

To hit this play will take some luck no doubt and one cant hit these often but if I am correct and the opportunity is there then it is possible and that is all we can ask for with a monster score like this could be.

That would certainly be a great capper for your sweet playoffs run.