I didn't realize 2 starters out for Cavs game 2 loss.
Obviously they need those players back. They played the 2cd and 3rd most minutes per game and attempted the 2cd and 3rd most shots.
That without a doybt they need these players back to win this series being down 0-2 at home no less. This is a big loss.
Going off my PR's I'd take Celtics, Cavs if injuried players come back, I think they are day to day.
Warriors and OKC. The 1 upset I see is Warriors over Wolves but now Curry is out.
Now with that said OKC is very young that could prove a issue I talked about when I posted PR's. Young players don't win titles but they could get to finals, I dont really have history when they lose.
But I will always side with my PR's for the most part.
And Celtics are not the same team as last season so I would not play Celtics or OKC to win series for these reasons but if I were to make a call I'll back my PR's as to who I think wins the series.
I would back them in the right spots on the game though.
1-0, won .5 units
season --- 16-11 (59%), won 4.51 units
Wow, crazy another home team goes down. The same story as Pacers. Home team leading, road team closes and wins at the end .
Never seen anything like this. 5 straight games a top 3 team lost at home in games 1 & 2.
I suppose a anomaly. We just try and be on the right side and we should weather this storm .
Even crazier is OKC'S winning in yet another big blowout game. Finally righting the ship.
But in 6 playoff games OKC has a over 50 pt win and over 40 pt win and a 19 pt win which isn't unusual for strong teams but when combining that with the other 2 wins that is half of all their games.
They are only the 2cd team to go over a 6% shooting efficiency margin of out-shooting their opponents
2017 Warriors adding KD were the first team to do it.
To go over 6% can only be done by taking more 3's. Hence why teams haven't done it much untill recent and Why comparing teams over history is difficult.
5 or 6% today is 4% years ago with far less 3's.
85 Lakers were the first team I think to hit 4% then 87 Lakers did it again with showtime lead by Magic.
86 Celtics were 3.6%. Which was still excellent back then.
I broke-down the % of all shots were 3 pointers for different champs in 80's, 90's, 2000's, 2010,'s and 2020's.
Incredible. Goes from less then 5% to over 50% in past couple of years.
When I have more time with fewer games being played I'll post the info on days off.
I think I could try and figure out when a team shoots a certain % of 3's then a very good shooting efficiency should be this amount.
For example if a team shoots 3 % of shots are 3's then 4% is great shooting efficiency margin.
If a team shots 46% of shots as 3's then 4% is good but hardly great.
I forgot to mention once again Celtics 3 pt shooting cost them. 10 of 40 for 25%.
Difficult to win and especially cover a larger line shooting like this.
They did take 57 shots as 2 pts shots. A better ratio of shots VS game 1 but they are still taking volume 3 pt shots.
It's not 60 shots from 3 but still volume and when u shoot that kind of volume shooting efficiency matters and the Celtics have not had that efficiency this season.
Celtics are not the same team this year shooting 3's but they still want to throw up volume 3's.
When we look back in history teams dont win like this.
MY LINES.............
Twolves-2.55 over Warriors
Twolves off a home loss game 1. Spot favors Twolves. This ship should get righted.
Line is -10 to -10.5.
How many pts is Curry worth ? To make a play on the Twolves line would need to be Twolves -1.
Curry is not close to being worth 9 pts.
The lines are out of whack on these home teams losing game 1.
The spot favors Twolves but my lines favor Warriors.
I'll pass.
I suppose later in these series the line's will adjust for these home teams that lost game 1 and if they do that will be the time to grab these home teams that lost game 1 in the right spots.
It was obvious from the start Warriors were not going to match the intensity and effort of Twolves.
Warriors got what they needed to get with game 1 win.
With Curry out for a week at least, Twolves should win this series.
They should play better at home and bring more intensity and role players play better at home and not as good on the road for Wolves.
Wolves need to win 1 of 2 road games to gain back home court. Without Curry they should be able to do that.
Here is Warriors PR I in 51 games before Jimmy arrived.
PR I ........(-.94)
SHOOTING EFFICIENCY......... (-1.11)
With Jimmy in his 31 games ..........
PR I ......5.75
Shooting Efficiency.... 3.23%
Jimmy added 6.86 pts to Warriors PR I.
Wow is he really worth almost 7 pts ?
No way, but I think when adding Jimmy to Curry the combo of those 2 great players produces a 6.86 improvement.
How does the defense account for both players ? much more difficult then 1 great player .
And this opens up the other players as well.
That's what I mean when I say Jimmy is a better fit with Warriors then Luka was to LA.
With Curry out will it be about the same number of pts ?
Had we added the 6.86 to my lines...............
Twolves -2.55 over Warriors .......adding 6.86 pts.
Twolves -9.41
Now we have a line pretty close to the books line. Still favoring Warriors but with the spot favoring Wolves and the line pretty close.
Comparing Jimmy to Luka, LA had AD before Luka so they were starting from a stronger PR I then Warriors before the new players arrived.
Warriors traded Wiggins, very good player but no AD.
This might help to some degree explain why Jimmy added more to Warriors then Luka did to LA.
If we look at player efficiency rating......
AD was like 27.7
Wiggns was maybe 16.5 to 17.
Win shares per 48 minutes .........
AD was like .209
Wiggins maybe around .109 or .119 but well back of how much he contributed to each win then AD.
which helps explain why with Jimmy out or Curry out could be worth all those pts.
MY LINES ..........
Cavs -6.87 over Pacers
Cavs down 0-2 recieve the same 4 desperation pts.
But with 3 players out, I see maybe Garland can play but I can't back Cavs here.
1 player out I'd back Cavs but not 3 maybe 2 out but to risky to me.
When healthy I think Cavs could win 4 straight VS Pacers .
Aggravating to see injuries like this to a team played so well in regular season. I was very interested to see how this Cavs did in the playoffs but now they might go up in smoke because of these injuries.
If they can get this 1 win and more rest for injuried players, maybe but a long way to get to that point.
I will pass on this game.
MY LiNES ...........
OKC -1.57 over Nuggets
OKC off a big blowout 43 pt win.
Strong teams off 1 big blowout wins is not a fade, they can string more games ATS.
Game 3's tied 1-1 with don't use my lines but back the better team if a clear better team.
Obviously it is OKC
OKC is a young team and these young teams don't win the title. But when they will get beat is difficult to tell.
Could be next round or the finals. Most likely it would come VS a more experienced team that may not rate out as strong but has experience and has been there and knows how to win.
This "could be" Nuggets.
But I will back MY PR's in this game and make a small play on OKC.
OKC -5 (-120) over Nuggets --- .6 units
I did see this morning Cavs lined move to -4.5 from -2 or -2.5 yesterday.
That tells me players are coming back. When I looked into it seems maybe Garland will play but not the other 2.
I think Mobley is key as Pacers lack size but Garland adds alot also.
This time of year teams play games with who plays and who maybe won't then next thing you know guy made a miracle recovery just before gametime to play.
Books know the score however when they move a number for the most part they know.
I am not sure a 2 pt or 2.5 pt move indicates 1 or 2 players coming back or all 3. I think line would move more then 2 or 2.5 pts if all 3 were coming back. Even 2 players back seems line would move more to me.
I thought about taking the -2 yesterday in hopes players come back then buy back Pacers if they don't. Knowing how teams play games with injuries this can be a good strategy.
Quote Originally Posted by kevmode:
The Cavs are now 5.5 point favorites, the line seems to be moving quickly now.
Looks like Mobley is playing and I take it Garland as well. I be watching the game soon.
As commonly happens teams playing games with their injuries. With both players back I'd taken Cavs -5 or -5.5.
I hope they are healthy enough to play at or near their true skill levels.
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