NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

Very possible............

 Many times the better teams delivers down the stretch while the lesser team can't hang.

That's why I like to take 1st half ML's. In these spots 

@theclaw

 Might not even take til the end. 

indiana was shooting 58% from 3. Cleveland was at like 25%. Regression was coming.

Yea Pacers shot lights-out and Cavs shot terrible and still Cavs were close before Pacers pulled away with not much time left.

Pacers just seemed all game like they were not going to be denied in this game. 

Eventually they will have a regression with that hot shooting.............

4-0, won 3.76 units

 season--- 15-10, won 5.11 units

Regression is a wonderful thing .........

Pacers got it done in a very nice Regression  spot that has consistently produced some the largest upsets based on the line in playoffs over the years.

Hopefully we get one more of these spots this next round. I think the potential is there.

The Warriors got it done as well so they are the only team to survive the 1st round that got a great player or had a great player return with lots of hope for playoff success.

I think they have a decent shot to beat the Twolves.

With Jimmy they would likely be pretty evenly matched. I'll get the results with Jimmy next chance I can do it.

MY LINES .............Monday

Celtics -8.72 over Knicks

OKC -9.57 over Nuggets

Celtics off 2 ATS wins with a 31 pt blowout win. Not the best of spots to back the Celtics. 

Knicks of 1 ATS win but only a 3 pt win.  Not a bad spit of the Knicks.

My line is about right on the actual line. I will pass on this game.

OKC off 2 ATS losses after being in a regression spot.  With Nuggets off 1 ATS win and bigger win by 19 pts.

Spot favors OKC. My line once again is about right on the number.

Backing the top 2 teams in all game 1's has  produced a very good record and with Nuggets off a 7 game series the play is on OKC the no. 1 ranked team.

OkC should bounce back off their regression if not this game it should be game 2.

OKC -9 (-120) over Nuggets --- 1.2 units

BOL  on your plays @theclaw 

Bad night for my Cavs, great night for you.

Congratulations.

Good luck tonight and always enjoy reading your insight on the games. 

Thanks ..........

Reminds me last year I played similar regression spot on the Cavs over Celtics and Cavs won SU on the ML but they missed a last second free throw to end the half in a tie.

I missed out on that 1st half ML but got a push but hit the game ML with very nice odds. And both spreads.

Thank you ..............

Not sure I have any plays tonight. If I have time will do some thoughts on the games.

I did run the numbers for Jimmy only games in his 31 games played with Warriors.

Very interesting  comparing what Jimmy did to what Luka did ........

0-1, lost 1.1 units

season 15-11, won 4.01

Wow, crazy happenings last night.

With Cavs being in what amounts to an historical regression spot that was my thoughts on what could happen and why I was not making a play on the Cavs, not even to win SU. 

It is difficult to with both road games 1& 2 but that was the spot it could happen. I thought the game would be close with Pacers having a shot to win SU but I thought Cavs would pull it out.

There are cases of teams losing ATS 3 straight, however it is low probability . I'd  side with Cavs bouncing back next 2 games.

Same for OKC, they did lose 3 straight after a regression spot, these are generally good spots to back the team off regression  

And with Nuggets winning 1 game of the 1st 2 on the road they got  what they needed.

Play is on OKC.

Warriors win does not surprise me as I stated Warriors have a good shot to win series. I said  that before running Jimmy's only games. 

After running  the numbers, wow, Warriors the much better team.

Warriors rank 4th in PR I behind only the big 3.

Well ahead of Twolves. 

Warriors 5.75

Twolves 4

My line on game 1 was Twolves -2.25, huge difference  to the actual line but coming off a 7 game series I didn't want to back Warriors. I waited for game 2 if Wolves won SU.

7 game series could be worth 2 or 3 pts I'd guess.

Warriors shooting efficiency  margin is over 3% which is strong and CD of past champs but the rebounding  I haven't figured  yet for % of rebs.

Now that a trend has been established with road teams winning SU on the road VS the 3 best teams and then the Pacers winning both road games SU I think normalcy returns with home teams getting back on track.

Although according to my lines favors dogs to cover.

But I like OKC off regression. I'll  take small action.

Celtics are not the same team as last season, I talked about this already. Their 3 pt shooting % is not as good.

What they did in game 1 trying to create volume 3's don't work without efficiency. 

All these teams try duplicating the Warriors after the Warriors won the title with 3 pt shooting. 

Can not do it unless you can match the efficiency which few teams can.

Celtics did that last year, I pointed that out back then but this year they do not.

I think there is a fairly good chance Cavs come back beat the Pacers and make the Finals.

MY LINES ..............weds

Celtics -8.72 over Knicks

OKC -9.57 over Nuggets 

My line favors Knicks but with Celtics off a home loss I won't back the Knicks.

My line only slightly  favors Nuggets but would not be enough to play Nuggets in any spot.

This spot favors OKC.

OKC -10 over Nuggets --- .55 units

@theclaw

 Who do you have winning each series in the semi-finals if you had to make a call at this point?

Let's compare what Luka brought to the Lakers with what Jimmy brought to Warriors.

LA PR I in Luka only games was 2.25 pts better the LA end of season PR I.

The end of season includes Luka's 28 games played.

Warriors PR I in Jimmy only games was 4.19 better then end of the season PR I.

End of season includes Jimmy 31 games played.

Wow, big difference  to what Jimmy brought to the Warroirs then what Luka brought to LA. Almost 2 pts better.

Luka of course not good on defense I'm sure Jimmy made a bigger difference  on defense then Luka.

I saw LA was 3rd worst in playoffs in defense. And I did see Luka got beat on 64.2% of drives at him. Players went right around him 64.2 % of the time.

I suppose we could say Jimmy was a much better fit with the Warriors team then Luka was with the LA team.

This info would have been very valuable in round 1, would of change how I played Warriors/Rockets series for sure as Warriors much better the Rockets PR I of 2.9.

Interesting  to see how Clippers did in Kawhi games only compared to full season.

I will run the numbers at some point as this good be a very good lesson going forward in years ahead.

I agree with TC's analysis in Comment #174.  I don't watch much basketball and don't comprehend much of what I do, so I just examine the stats.

From Basketball Reference, here are some OnCourt +/- stats per 100 possessions for the current season:

Doncic:

DEN  9.2

LAL  7.6

Butler:

MIA  3.1

GSW  9.2

For this year's playoffs:

LD  -6.2

JB  -0.5

Career regular season:

LD  3.4

JB  4.5

Career playoffs:

LD  1.0

JB  -0.5 (spoiled by 4 bad years out of 5 with CHI)

Overall JB is a more productive/valuable player than LD.

Very cool look at both players. Thanks for posting ....................