LATE POST but still a worthwhile WRITE-UP if you catch it for the NETS@LAKERS!!!!

Ya haven't seen guys with write-ups, in quantity and quality, the size and the approach to capping I have with what I post and I'll have a dozen guys who've been here a long time to vouch for that.

I've been here when it started and was on wagerline long before so I know who's who.

It's nice to see you in a thread which is one of my three losers this year but of course you wouldn't do it in all the other winners or how would you look? Pretty bad. And this looks pretty bad even in a thread that didn't hit.

NOW EVERYONE, CARRY ON! SINGLE FILE NOW YA HEAR! March in place! Left right left right. Greyhound is in the building and he is gonna let us know what's what and who's who!!!

Just as I suspected, Scal, you are a mensch. One of the nicest, most thoughtful posts anyone has written (and most guys here will probably never bother to read it or think about it). I wish we could frame it. I grew up on those old twilight zone episodes as well and recall that one vividly. Of course, the reason it home for me was because my father was/is a compulsive gambler. Something I too, vowed never to become. I turned to gambling last year out of sheer necessity. I'm a stay at home dad with no income for bills and groceries and no funding to work on my dissertation (which is, ironically enough, on the topic of failure). I reached out to a couple of guys here on covers for help (as far as how to approach this gig) but no one here (who is successful) wants to give away their secrets and I understand, since knowledge is their only edge. In theory, I should be very good at this, since patience is one of my virtues. In fact, I've been waiting for something to happen my entire life (not sure what, but like the characters in Beckett's famous play,I wait). But what nullifies this virtue is my inability to handle losing. I've always been a bad loser. So I chase my losses, and that almost never works out. The other thing that hampers my abilities is my OCD, doesn't allow me to get the thought of losing out of my head, as I obsess over it. Anyway, thanks again for taking the time to write. I really appreciate your advice and will take it to heart. 

"The media crush has already begun.

In addition to that, Deron has already insinuated his displeasure with the singing due to the distraction it will cause.

The distraction is in full force tonight and we only get a single game to take advantage of it. While id love for this to be the Thunder to crush them, we have to deal with the Lakers here.

Well if there is one guy you do not want distracted, sulking, and finding an excuse for a media crush for his poor play if you are a Nets backers, it's Deron."

 

 

Enjoy your write-ups and picks, but you really missed the mark last night. BOL with your future picks.

Thanks for the kind words!

I am compelled to address several things in your post because of the impact gambling has on your life and more importantly, your daughter's life.

1) You do it out of necessity.

This obviously creates an extraordinary psychological burden upon you to cap effectively but  also handle the daily stresses of life in addition to gambling stress.

This is just my own experience. I know several guys who have tried 'pro' betting for a living. I say this unequivocally: Every single one of them had to quit or were forced to quit and return to the labor force after going broke.

That demonstrated to me that only a precious few can weather the storm of gambling, be it discipline and capital available for such a pursuit.

Have you ever heard of Haralabos Vouglaris? He is a professional NBA bettor and lives the high life. Unfortunately he runs very sophisticated modeling programs (to the point where he hires programmers at $100k a year) to find inefficiencies in totals betting.

Having seen your posts, you are not such a bettor and even if you were, you wouldn't have the capital to outlay 100k a year to anyone. I am in the same boat.

This is, in my view, the only effective way to pilfer money from the books on a professional betting level over the long term. Wall Street arbitrage trading works in a similar way.

Why am I saying this? Because we both have similar betting styles and here I am betting for a decent profit like you but on my end, it's hobby. This allows me several advantages over your necessity capping not limited to stress but also extending to discipline.

It is extremely hard to cap in the fashion like you are. Still as noted, you have had some very nice success! I would like you to enjoy the fruits of that success with what you have won.

If there is any way for you to finish the dissertation sooner than later (easier said than done) do so and dive straight into the job market with the same fervor you give to betting.

I have found no more effective way to maintain a positive cash flow for my personal finances than to sell my labor (find a regular job). It is boring, it is stressful, it is mundane BUT it pays every week without fail to maintain a certain lifestyle and a minimum standard of living. And that allows me the disposable income to cap and turn those earnings into more income, with a clear mind and as a hobby.

There are no easy answers here but moving toward the above and finishing your dissertation ASAP is of the highest importance. And even if, as a last resort, you have to ditch the PhD pursuit, you can so this and still be VERY successful. I know several people who have made such a decision as well.

2) Your daughter

Do you see how you referred to your father? As a compulsive gambler. This is an overriding legacy he now owns in your mind.

I see you write it with sadness and regret that he could have spent so much more of his life doing something else, serving a greater purpose and ultimately spending more time with the people he loves. 

Your daughter currently has this view of you given you disclosed what she said to you.

Simply put, one day you will pass away. You will not want your legacy to your daughter to be the legacy your father has in your mind right now, as a gambler.

Addiction is a terrible life-defining characteristic. Philip Seymour Hoffman will forever be remembered as a heroin addict by the general public, his wife, and his children. This is one of the great actors of our time and that is how he will be remembered.

Gambling, albeit of lesser 'scarlet letter' stain, still will be powerfully felt within the family confines.

I just offer this as personal consideration, not condemnation and in no way is it shameful.

3) Chasing losses

This is the demise of all gamblers. Books/Casinos know full well the lure of making your money back overrides any rational decision making.

Here is what I do to reorient my brain (key to avoiding this self-destructive tendency) every single time I have the urge to chase.

I imagine a book as a poker player sitting across from me with several billion dollars in front of him.

I have several thousand in front of me.

He tells me he will make a deal with me in our game. He will deal me pocket aces every single hand but he is going to go all in blind very single hand. He promises to have a lower pocket pair in his hand. I have to option to fold or play each hand since he is already all in. We can only play winner take all before anyone quits.

If I agree to these terms, the reality is I cannot win and I will go bust every single time.

I do not have the bankroll in front of me to even make a dent in his bankroll even if I am an 82% favorite every hand (the maximum favorite percentage if he also holds a lower pocket pair).

What I have just done is set up the ideal conditions to win. I hold the best hand in poker preflop. He holds a pocket pair which I dominate as an 82% favorite. I would have no reason to fold since my hand will never change.

What is the problem? Even under the most ideal conditions one can imagine, I will still go broke because of his bankroll size.

Now if you have an 82% success rate in NBA capping, you are exactly like the poker player with several thousand dollars above if you chase. There is no victory which is achievable. The casino will get every dollar you have in the end. It may take days. It may take years. But they will get every penny because of their bankroll size which will swallow yours, possibly in a single bet.

Every time you have the urge to chase, every time your discipline prevents you from flat betting, think of the player across from you and he will get every dollar from you eventually if you fail to flat bet.

Hope this helps. Just as a footnote, there are guys on here that will make you look like a choir boy and have their fingers so far inside their ears with regard to any advice, their fingertips are touching.

You deserve a life different than the one you are living now. And you can have it! It's far easier to achieve than gambling professionally! Far, far easier!!!

And you watch the Twilight Zone. That is someone who already has a great head start toward success! 

I was absolutely wrong about that and I blame his performance on the 0-18 stat at Staples.

These have to be the roughest of rough times as a Laker fan. Although last year with Dwight was worse, despite the better record and playoffs, in my opinion because you just couldn't embrace that malcontent. He was such an embarrassment. He did years and years of damage to the lakers.

These are people's lives man, not an episode of Dynasty. One life and its issues serve as a template for many. Have some respect for that.