Jazz/Lakers on ESPN late Friday night

And may I add, when I say "historic game," referring to their monumental collapse in the fourth quarter, I refer to that as such because when a very good team only scores like 6 points in the fourth quarter and costs bettors everywhere, including I, I consider that historic from a betting standpoint. That's pretty rare for a well-coached, and awesome team to boot, does something like that.

Good insight on the situation....

I like over on this game

 

 

Right.  Even more reason to fade the Fakers.  

 

 

The problem is, there's not nearly enough doubters to get the lackadaisical Lakers properly fired up.  Did you hear how many times Sir Charles declared the Lakers "the best team in the NBA" last night on TNT?  I lost count.

 

 

You mean back when the Lakers were winning 32 of their first 41 games?  Back when they were awesome?  By the way, Denver kicked their ass in a Friday night ESPN game less than two months ago, not three months ago.

I'm on the OVER -203 here. BOL to all.
Mr.Bator - Why did the total drop in the Orl/Spurs game. From 195 to 193 ?

Excellent analysis, per usual, MrBator.  I myself had this game circled after I read this ESPN Insider article regarding the Lakers' shitiness:

worst margin of the West's top eight. Ready for the really depressing news? Seven teams in the East are ahead of the Lakers, too.

Playoff Odds give them only a 1-in-6 chance of coming out of the West. While one can argue the Playoff Odds might be a bit too democratic in spreading the probabilities around, it's notable that Utah grades out as much more likely to advance and that Phoenix and San Antonio are projected to have chances roughly equal to the Lakers'.

Derek Fisher is a great guy and has earned all the rope he's been given, but we're 70 games into the season and he's shooting 37.9 percent with a 9.27 player efficiency rating, output that screams, "Replace me," from the hilltops. Unfortunately, backup Jordan Farmar hasn't been any better. The Lakers had a golden opportunity to trade Adam Morrison's expiring contract for backcourt help at the trade deadline and failed to pull the trigger. They might regret that move deeply come May.

Kobe Bryant isn't producing at the level of the previous two seasons. This has been partly masked by his increased minutes -- he's playing 38.8 minutes per game compared to last season's 36.1 -- and his penchant for spectacular last-second shots. So his per-game numbers look fine, and he's making memorable plays. But on a per-minute basis, he hasn't been the same player. He's headed for his worst PER in a decade, with his turnover ratio in particular spiking noticeably from last season.

Jazz +5 no questions asked.

Thanks Tuck. I cut and pasted that from his post. I was on Atlanta that game!

Goddamn past function.

 

In other words, although the names and faces are mostly the same, these Lakers aren't playing like last season's Lakers. They aren't going to get anywhere near the 2008-09 total of 65 wins, and they no longer own the top scoring margin in the West -- that would be Utah's property, because the Lakers have a piddling plus-2.65 margin since the All-Star break.

L.A.'s slide is happening while its competition is ramping up. Over the past quarter of the schedule, L.A. has the worst margin of the West's top eight. Ready for the really depressing news? Seven teams in the East are ahead of the Lakers, too.

In other words, they look every bit like a team that's a long shot to win a championship. Wednesday's Playoff Odds give them only a 1-in-6 chance of coming out of the West. While one can argue the Playoff Odds might be a bit too democratic in spreading the probabilities around, it's notable that Utah grades out as much more likely to advance and that Phoenix and San Antonio are projected to have chances roughly equal to the Lakers'.

So what's gone wrong? Why can't L.A. play like the Lakers of a year ago or even the Lakers of the first half of this season?

Several factors intersect. Offensively, they just aren't good, and it's putting a ton of pressure on the defense to save the day. The Lakers are only 11th in offensive efficiency, and the attack has taken another small step back in the 20 games since the All-Star break.

With three highly productive starters, it's pretty obvious what the problem is -- they're basically playing with an open sore at point guard. Derek Fisher is a great guy and has earned all the rope he's been given, but we're 70 games into the season and he's shooting 37.9 percent with a 9.27 player efficiency rating, output that screams, "Replace me," from the hilltops. Unfortunately, backup Jordan Farmar hasn't been any better. The Lakers had a golden opportunity to trade Adam Morrison's expiring contract for backcourt help at the trade deadline and failed to pull the trigger. They might regret that move deeply come May.

Another issue, however, is that Kobe Bryant isn't producing at the level of the previous two seasons. This has been partly masked by his increased minutes -- he's playing 38.8 minutes per game compared to last season's 36.1 -- and his penchant for spectacular last-second shots. So his per-game numbers look fine, and he's making memorable plays. But on a per-minute basis, he hasn't been the same player. He's headed for his worst PER in a decade, with his turnover ratio in particular spiking noticeably from last season.

As for the team defense, that has slipped, too. In fact, lately L.A. has taken a bigger step back there than on offense. The Lakers were second in the league in defensive efficiency at the All-Star break, but have been just 10th-best since, dropping into a tie for fourth with Oklahoma City for the season overall.

 

Here's one for your side Bator.  Didn't see this posted yet.  lakers are 0-5 ATS this season 1st game back home after a 3 gm or more road trip.  They are 5-10 going back the last 3 saesons in this same scenario, with 4 of the wins coming 3 years ago.  There lone ATS win in the last 2 seasons I saw was against the Celtics last season.  HMMMMMMMMMMMMM!! gl bro.......

Big laker fan here and i am still taking the points

I know the books hate to pay Lakers money, there is always a added tax of some sort being either the PL or ML, same as you get with the Yankees, Red Sox, Pats, USC, and the likes,  It does seem rather easy to take lay the five looking at past match-up history, also every one who won with nuggets last night laying that 4.5 to 5 will have the mental thought and bite on the lakers because it's so fresh in every-one's mind. Tough game as Jazz seem to fall apart at staples for whatever reason.

PistolPete21

 

 

Excellent write up!

 

 

Now that you mentioned it, you've got me interested in looking at how the Lakers have fared this season at home against the league's elite. I'll define "the league's elite" as any team that currently has at least 49 wins.  I'll start with the most recent home dates and work my way backward.

 

February 28th - The Lakers beat Denver, 95-89.  Huge home loss revenge game for the Lakers and they still didn't cover.  Lucky as hell to get the -6 push.

February 5th - The Lakers lost to Denver, 126-113.

January 18th - The Lakers beat Orlando, 98-92.  Another push.

January 3rd - The Lakers crushed Dallas, 131-96.  Another huge home loss revenge game for the Lakers.

December 25th - The Lakers lost to Cleveland, 102-87.

December 9th - The Lakers beat Utah, 101-77.

December 6th - The Lakers beat Phoenix, 108-88.  The Suns were in the NBA's most dreaded scheduling spot.  Every team gets blown out in this spot.  They had no chance.

November 12th - The Lakers beat Phoenix, 121-102.  Exact same hideous scheduling spot for Phoenix.  Very cruel that this happened to them twice!

October 30th - The Lakers lost to Dallas, 94-80.

 

 

These nine games seem to fall into five categories:

1) The Lakers lost

2) The Lakers won but failed to cover

3) The Lakers won and covered because they had earlier season embarrassing home loss revenge motivation

4) The Lakers won and covered because the schedule maker hates the Suns

5) The Lakers own the Jazz

 

 

With no revenge motive, and no horrible scheduling spot for the visiting team to fall prey to, where are the Lakers going to find the inspiration to win and cover this game? 

actually they do, Lakers are only a game ahead of the Magics for the 2nd best record.   winner gets a home court advantage if they meet again in the finals.

if cleveland covers, the lakers will not.

 

 

You just named two teams that own losing spread records at home.  How do you explain your unwillingness to go against them?

 

 

 

Absolutely.  That was Utah's worst half of basketball all season.

did you place your bet on Utah yet Bator?

 

 

Perhaps you haven't yet seen my post from earlier this morning in which I documented the Magic staying under the total in every Friday road game they've played this season (0-8 O/U by an average of 10.3 points per game).

 

going into last nights game PORTLAND lost 12 of last 13 games

in DENVER... they dominate them at HOME...

 

 

I count 0-4 ATS, and they didn't come close to coering any of those games (against Oklahoma City, Charlotte, Toronto, and Minnesota).

 

 

Be strong.  We're with you.  And don't forget the moneyline.

Good Luck Bator. I just played the Over 203 in this one.