Posted:
#51
Can I trade my Cavs in for the Warriors. I'd much rather root for and have to watch the Dubs every night. The team is downright fun
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Cavs Championship futures ticketholders?Save yourself the grief and put those babies in the shredder
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
How did they beat the market? Do you know what an unrealized gain is?
Until you sell a stock you get this much for your 30-1 stock : $0.
Longer you wait? Tougher it gets to buy out and Rangerz noted that you could buy out right now with a profit.
There isn't a single person in the entire world buying out now and won't be in the near future, if at all.
Massively disagree Scal. Those who bought the 30-1 and view gambling as an investment will absolutely sell now if they can get fair value. The casual bettor as you referred to won't. But the investor type who does this for a living will 100% be out of the wager.
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Posted:
#53
I'm sure there are SOME out there who did the math on the 30-1. They probably figured the Cavs would be around a 4-1 sell to win the title with Lebron. Therefore, if they believed the Cavs had a better than 5-1 chance to sign Lebron, their money would be made the SECOND Lebron signed. These kinds of people have the resources to be able to "sell" of course. The casual squares wouldn't even know how to sell if you explained it in a book. So you are definitely part right on that.
My plays are based on numbers/math, yours are based on opinion/capping. You are good at what you do Scal, but it's inevitable we were going to bump heads in this thread.
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Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:
OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1. This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.
OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1. This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.
Finally someone who understands the concept of value and trying to beat the market. Holy sh*t the stupidity in this thread is giving me a severe migraine.
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
Massively disagree Scal. Those who bought the 30-1 and view gambling as an investment will absolutely sell now if they can get fair value. The casual bettor as you referred to won't. But the investor type who does this for a living will 100% be out of the wager.
Not a single soul is selling Rangerz.
Who is the guy that's selling? Some head of some betting syndicate? Is that the guy with the resources?
And who's left? Squares! Hundred dollar bettors!
How much can you put on a 30-1 future anyway? Vegas books won't take a lot of liability on a number like that. $500? $1,000?
Online books will take more but not much more. Wasn't it you that said Bovada, one of the biggest American books there is, limited you to $50 max bets? (If not it doesn't disprove my point). They limited me to a degree. And they are gonna take $2k $5k at 30-1 when they worry and cap a casual bettor? No way.
Which leaves squares and a few sharps who will ride it out. Because there really isn't that much at stake to a sharp. If he out $1,000 on it, it's worth 30k. Those guys are putting 5 figure bets in on games all day long.
Hedging out of a 30-1 bet? A bet that isn't even close to finished? No way. They have more important things to worry about.
But to the square, this is their mother load. And they don't know when or how to hedge, and don't even have the money to do so.
And all the bets will end up where in the end as 95% ride them out?
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
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Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Not a single soul is selling Rangerz.
Who is the guy that's selling? Some head of some betting syndicate? Is that the guy with the resources?
And who's left? Squares! Hundred dollar bettors!
How much can you put on a 30-1 future anyway? Vegas books won't take a lot of liability on a number like that. $500? $1,000?
Online books will take more but not much more. Wasn't it you that said Bovada, one of the biggest American books there is, limited you to $50 max bets? (If not it doesn't disprove my point). They limited me to a degree. And they are gonna take $2k $5k at 30-1 when they worry and cap a casual bettor? No way.
Which leaves squares and a few sharps who will ride it out. Because there really isn't that much at stake to a sharp. If he out $1,000 on it, it's worth 30k. Those guys are putting 5 figure bets in on games all day long.
Hedging out of a 30-1 bet? A bet that isn't even close to finished? No way. They have more important things to worry about.
But to the square, this is their mother load. And they don't know when or how to hedge, and don't even have the money to do so.
And all the bets will end up where in the end as 95% ride them out?
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
Whether during an off season, or over the course of a game, I make bets ALL THE TIME with the intent of selling instantly the moment the price drops to my expected number. So had I been one of the lucky ones with 30-1, I would be selling.
To answer your question about bovada, yes they limited me to peanuts across the board. My account is pretty much useless. Obviously getting enough of a bet down isn't an easy thing, but that sure as hell doesn't mean it COULDN'T be done.
Point is like Michfan said, they beat the market. For an average $1000 per game bettor who was able to get down $1000 on the 30-1 future, you don't think they'd find a way to sell the bet for $5000 right now? (or pretty much immediately after the signing) I would, and I'm sure there's others out there who think along the same lines.
Were in full agreement that the average bettor is a complete square. He took a shot on the 30-1 with no knowledge of what the price WOULD drop to. Just took a shot hoping to get lucky. 95% of bettors full into this category. But the rest of the 5% are out there, I can assure you.
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
you don't think they'd find a way to sell the bet for $5000 right now?
you don't think they'd find a way to sell the bet for $5000 right now?
Wouldn't that be "selling low"?
No matter how bad the Cavs are now, they will get better and they will make the playoffs in a weak EC where they won't be a significant dog to any team IMO until the finals.
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
Wouldn't that be "selling low"?
No matter how bad the Cavs are now, they will get better and they will make the playoffs in a weak EC where they won't be a significant dog to any team IMO until the finals.
Well, by $5000 I meant $5000 profit. So technically speaking it'd be selling for $6000. I was using the -400 as a safe estimate, the current 5dimes price is -350 field so you would make even more.
Regardless, I was simply talking about those who made the bet pre-signing, and immediately sold post-signing. It's definitely my opinion that they will turn it around and are easily the team to beat in the east but I'm trying to leave out my opinion of the team and just focus on the odds.
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Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
it was game 11, means nothing. Who outside of Bulls has any chance to get to finals? Raps? We saw how that went last year, nba has no desire for Raps to be contender. Wiz? Not close to being ready. Who am I forgetting?11/21/14
Wizards - 91 Cavs - 78
I'll post some of the stinkers during the season. This was a real doozy.
The lowlights:
13 4th quarter point vs. Washington
Lebron completely out of sorts with an lackadaisical 8-21.
Klove - 3-8 and 8 pts
Tristan Thompson - 4
Miller -3
Waiters - 22 minutes and two...count em two points.
A horrendous 9 bench points
One loss does not a futures ticket get determined on but Lebron had that look tonight, that 'ol fingernail biting look he had early in his career where he knew, he just knew his team, although it would excel at some point, just wouldn't make it over that hump.
I wonder how many bettors are selling off their 30-1 right now (no one).
I wonder how many will sell off before the all-star break (no one).
I wonder what those bettors will do and how they will hedge when the Cavs meet the Wizards, or the Raptors or the Bulls in, potentially, an early round of the playoffs, a round they could easily get knocked off in.
I wonder how much the average square will 'sell off' that 30-1 with the Cavs as dogs, hence, they'll have to bet into a negative moneyline (costing them even more), when they purchased their original future for $100/$200/$300.
Will they deposit $1,000/$2,000 into their account to hedge in the second round (no folks, they won't).
Folks, the logistics of hedging, the reality of hedging, is quite complicated when you have to move cash you might not have and/or are willing to lose (that is, the Cavs can certainly win the second round matchup and you are then down 1k or 2k and still hold a 30-1 ticket that hasn't cashed yet).
In the end, very few will hedge, very few will buy out effectively, leaving one sound for the majority of Cavs futures bettor holders:
The Sound of Music to Vegas...
The Sound....of a Shredder...
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
Max Miller a great member of congress!
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Posted:
#64
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
That paper shredder sounds like a wood chipper right about now.
All the hoopla.
30-1!
We're in the money! We're in the money! They danced the jitterbug in the Bellagio sportbook when the Love trade went through. How could they lose???
Oh, they were falling all over themselves when they got that Cavs ticket.
And tonight 12/28/14...
The Cavs lose AT HOME to the lowly (and I do mean lowly) 6 win Pistons by ........
twenty three....
103-80.
Who is hedging out?? Where are these effective hedges that are making all these Cavs future ticket holders money??
Anyhow, there's more bad news...
At 18-12, the Cavs are now tied with the 1978 Washington Bullets for the second worst start ever with a possibility to win a championship (the Bullets did so that year).
Only two other teams in NBA history started worse and it was by a single loss more 17-13.
Not good folks. Not good at all...
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
That paper shredder sounds like a wood chipper right about now.
All the hoopla.
30-1!
We're in the money! We're in the money! They danced the jitterbug in the Bellagio sportbook when the Love trade went through. How could they lose???
Oh, they were falling all over themselves when they got that Cavs ticket.
And tonight 12/28/14...
The Cavs lose AT HOME to the lowly (and I do mean lowly) 6 win Pistons by ........
twenty three....
103-80.
Who is hedging out?? Where are these effective hedges that are making all these Cavs future ticket holders money??
Anyhow, there's more bad news...
At 18-12, the Cavs are now tied with the 1978 Washington Bullets for the second worst start ever with a possibility to win a championship (the Bullets did so that year).
Only two other teams in NBA history started worse and it was by a single loss more 17-13.
Not good folks. Not good at all...
Scal, instead of making me those posts go make a 5dimes account if you don't have one already. You can get the championship field in the -350 range. (if not lower) For a team that has "no chance" you might as well take advantage.
Go get rich. 
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Posted:
#69
the east is still the east....they have over 50 games to turn it around,still with a relatively new group....altho varejeo and irving injuries are rather worrying.....but the fact still remains as pointed out by rangerz2478 above ya can cash out now or if you want,keep taking a chance going forwards....i think its completely obvious lebron is pacing himself in a big way and bulls are only yet another rose injury problem away from being back with the rest of the pack-wizards,raptors etc.....you seriously dont think cavaliers have any chance watsoever of taking the likes of them out in a series??
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:
WTF -- this is still the best value bet of the season -- GUARANTEED 3-20 unit win if you hedge -- why MOCK that?
WTF -- this is still the best value bet of the season -- GUARANTEED 3-20 unit win if you hedge -- why MOCK that?
Who is hedging out??? And again, when do you hedge? Now? Later?
Where are these hedged tickets Vegas is losing money on???
Please, if there is someone on covers reading this who had hedged out of this Cavs bet after grabbing near 30-1, show bob the posted hedge and all the value he claims you have now received!
The overwhelming majority of bettors will NOT HEDGE.
Then the Cavs will meet the bulls or raps in the playoffs, likely second round, and the bettor will get themselves in a tight spot and lose it all. Hence, the 30-1 is a goner.
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Posted:
#71
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
Scal, instead of making me those posts go make a 5dimes account if you don't have one already. You can get the championship field in the -350 range. (if not lower) For a team that has "no chance" you might as well take advantage.
Go get rich.
I did. Before the season started when there was maximum value.
No reason to drop huge chunks of bankroll for $285 per $1000 bet now disallowing me to do much else betting wise in the NFL and NBA for the rest of the season and lock up the roll until May at that number (which will continue to rise).
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
the east is still the east....they have over 50 games to turn it around,still with a relatively new group....altho varejeo and irving injuries are rather worrying.....but the fact still remains as pointed out by rangerz2478 above ya can cash out now or if you want,keep taking a chance going forwards....i think its completely obvious lebron is pacing himself in a big way and bulls are only yet another rose injury problem away from being back with the rest of the pack-wizards,raptors etc.....you seriously dont think cavaliers have any chance watsoever of taking the likes of them out in a series??
the east is still the east....they have over 50 games to turn it around,still with a relatively new group....altho varejeo and irving injuries are rather worrying.....but the fact still remains as pointed out by rangerz2478 above ya can cash out now or if you want,keep taking a chance going forwards....i think its completely obvious lebron is pacing himself in a big way and bulls are only yet another rose injury problem away from being back with the rest of the pack-wizards,raptors etc.....you seriously dont think cavaliers have any chance watsoever of taking the likes of them out in a series??
Melos they won't win it all and almost certainly won't make the finals.
Hence 30/1 will pay nothing (unless you hedge and read my posts above on that).
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Posted:
#73
Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:
still a lot better than your knicks over 40 wins future--now THAT'S toast
still a lot better than your knicks over 40 wins future--now THAT'S toast
It is. And it's a loss. End of story.
And it was for EVEN MONEY like any side bet on any night.
Nothing to dance around about like Cavs bettors were doing when Love signed cashing their tickets before they even came close to hitting.
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Posted:
#74
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
It is. And it's a loss. End of story.
And it was for EVEN MONEY like any side bet on any night.
Nothing to dance around about like Cavs bettors were doing when Love signed cashing their tickets before they even came close to hitting.
And 30:1 is plus money.
Do you know anyone personally that you can say you saw with your own eyes "dancing around and cashing their tickets?"
Or are you just assuming this, because it sounds like you are making assumptions.
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Posted:
#75
Lebron James out 2 weeks...
An ailing KLove...
Kyrie just returned from injury...
Verajao out for the year...
The injury bug has taken a big wet bite out of this team...
30-1...
Anyone here hedging out right now??? Locking up your money until May and June taking the field on 5Dimes for heavy negative juice for all that profit all these posters allege you will make with your big 30-1 ticket???
Notta one. Not a single soul...
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