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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Cavs Championship futures ticketholders?Save yourself the grief and put those babies in the shredder

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    melossinglet
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    melossinglet
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 3:37 AM ET #26

    come on scalabrine,ya gotta be kidding me with this stuff??...first of all,i totally agree with the assertion that cavs are HIGHLY unlikely to go all the way with this squad in the 1st year...too many question marks,1st year coach,unproven,untested main pieces,chemistry etc.etc......but seriously why do you think folks jumped on that 30-1 bet prior to lebron switching it up???..surely it was to be in a position to HEDGE(at watever point that may be)...not many sane folks wud have liked the chances of the cavs,even with newly acquired lebron,to take it out in his first year back.(remember miller,marion,love etc..were all just pie in the sky at the time of those long-shot wagers).so really the only purpose of taking such a bet was to hope the odds on them wud plummet and then see if the opportunity to hedge mite arise.no-one was thinking james was gonna take last years cavaliers as previously constituted and win a title.hedge chance was the goal and the only goal.
    now,ya can do it in the manner that rangerz2478 suggested earlier,or you can do a little more risky and wait till conference final time where i think they have a very strong chance of advancing to.
      i mean,come on look at the east.its improving but its still weak as hell,who do you place above the cavs in terms of pure talent??...only the bulls in my eyes and i think it wud be 50/50 for cleveland in a 7-game series....better if rose keeps breaking every time he hits the court.but by that stage of the season you would have a much better feel and gague on their chances of toppling chicago(if in fact they were both able to get there),and if they are hitting their stride could let it ride.
    in a finals series i wud give them very little chance against ANYONE from the west and would hedge BIG in that instance.

    the main point tho is youre jumping the gun waaaaaay too early,its november dude...everyone knew full well that this,like all other similar type grand experiments,would take time to come together and of course there will be big growing pains as all pieces try to find how they fit together and get comfortable.at least give it some time before shovelling dirt on them as serious contendors.(or at least to go very deep).
    this team has enormous offensive upside and if they get on a roll can be dangerous as anybody,even with that lack of playoff pedigree.if they can become even sumwat proficient on the defensive end they will be tough.

    as for love and kyrie,its hard to brand sumone a loser wen they played their whole career for an inept organisation with sub-standard talent.....all bets are off on that judgment till they get a chance in the white-hot cauldron of a meaningful playoff series...both may well surprise.
    just too reactive in my view,waaaay too early to throw away them tickets if you sitting on 30-1.
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    come on scalabrine,ya gotta be kidding me with this stuff??...first of all,i totally agree with the assertion that cavs are HIGHLY unlikely to go all the way with this squad in the 1st year...too many question marks,1st year coach,unproven,untested main pieces,chemistry etc.etc......but seriously why do you think folks jumped on that 30-1 bet prior to lebron switching it up???..surely it was to be in a position to HEDGE(at watever point that may be)...not many sane folks wud have liked the chances of the cavs,even with newly acquired lebron,to take it out in his first year back.(remember miller,marion,love etc..were all just pie in the sky at the time of those long-shot wagers).so really the only purpose of taking such a bet was to hope the odds on them wud plummet and then see if the opportunity to hedge mite arise.no-one was thinking james was gonna take last years cavaliers as previously constituted and win a title.hedge chance was the goal and the only goal.
    now,ya can do it in the manner that rangerz2478 suggested earlier,or you can do a little more risky and wait till conference final time where i think they have a very strong chance of advancing to.
      i mean,come on look at the east.its improving but its still weak as hell,who do you place above the cavs in terms of pure talent??...only the bulls in my eyes and i think it wud be 50/50 for cleveland in a 7-game series....better if rose keeps breaking every time he hits the court.but by that stage of the season you would have a much better feel and gague on their chances of toppling chicago(if in fact they were both able to get there),and if they are hitting their stride could let it ride.
    in a finals series i wud give them very little chance against ANYONE from the west and would hedge BIG in that instance.

    the main point tho is youre jumping the gun waaaaaay too early,its november dude...everyone knew full well that this,like all other similar type grand experiments,would take time to come together and of course there will be big growing pains as all pieces try to find how they fit together and get comfortable.at least give it some time before shovelling dirt on them as serious contendors.(or at least to go very deep).
    this team has enormous offensive upside and if they get on a roll can be dangerous as anybody,even with that lack of playoff pedigree.if they can become even sumwat proficient on the defensive end they will be tough.

    as for love and kyrie,its hard to brand sumone a loser wen they played their whole career for an inept organisation with sub-standard talent.....all bets are off on that judgment till they get a chance in the white-hot cauldron of a meaningful playoff series...both may well surprise.
    just too reactive in my view,waaaay too early to throw away them tickets if you sitting on 30-1.
     
    melossinglet
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 3:54 AM ET #27

    also you know this league as well as anyone scalabrine so to use a cupple meaningless losses versus scrub teams as reasoning for why a group cant be a legitimate contendor is pretty obtuse....nba season is the ultimate grind and motivation and performance fluctuates wildly at many different points in the grind/marathon that is the 82-game regular season for EVERY team..its just the way it is,sum nites teams just dont have it and dont show up...this is why its a stone-cold bit.ch to bet spreads in this league.
    granted,it was weird to be so flat in a home opener and to lose at home off a days rest to such a horrible team........but shi.t happens and equally im sure they will steal sum wins which one wud think highly improbable at sum point....so it balances out and is just the way that it is.(unless youre the spurs,in which case you just win every fu.ken game from now till eternity)
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    also you know this league as well as anyone scalabrine so to use a cupple meaningless losses versus scrub teams as reasoning for why a group cant be a legitimate contendor is pretty obtuse....nba season is the ultimate grind and motivation and performance fluctuates wildly at many different points in the grind/marathon that is the 82-game regular season for EVERY team..its just the way it is,sum nites teams just dont have it and dont show up...this is why its a stone-cold bit.ch to bet spreads in this league.
    granted,it was weird to be so flat in a home opener and to lose at home off a days rest to such a horrible team........but shi.t happens and equally im sure they will steal sum wins which one wud think highly improbable at sum point....so it balances out and is just the way that it is.(unless youre the spurs,in which case you just win every fu.ken game from now till eternity)
     
    YoungBuckman
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 4:24 AM ET #28

    Just like the Knicks season total, another idiotic post.

    To EVER rule out a team after <15% of the season has been played is a testament to your stupidity.

    I have no bets on them, but I wish I did get on that 30-1 action...
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    Just like the Knicks season total, another idiotic post.

    To EVER rule out a team after <15% of the season has been played is a testament to your stupidity.

    I have no bets on them, but I wish I did get on that 30-1 action...
     
    jepjep02
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 4:26 AM ET #29

    you know nothing john snow 
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    you know nothing john snow 
     
    WrongDirection
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 6:33 AM ET #30

    Scalebrine bet the Cavs and lost....Hilarious
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    Scalebrine bet the Cavs and lost....Hilarious
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 8:19 AM ET #31

    @hra - I'm not saying Bosh is better than Love! I'm saying Bosh was a better FIT than love who knew exactly what his role was and how he should contribute (and think about that when you are one of the league's top 20 players and you only need to be third in line to contribute!). Love is second in line and right now, doesn't fit well. He will at some point but how long will that last.

    And when the pressure of the playoffs is on, he'll fold like a deuce seven on the green felt.

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    @hra - I'm not saying Bosh is better than Love! I'm saying Bosh was a better FIT than love who knew exactly what his role was and how he should contribute (and think about that when you are one of the league's top 20 players and you only need to be third in line to contribute!). Love is second in line and right now, doesn't fit well. He will at some point but how long will that last.

    And when the pressure of the playoffs is on, he'll fold like a deuce seven on the green felt.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 8:30 AM ET #32

    @BB - Nice metaphor!

    I gotta tell ya. I am VERY disturbed by the Nets performance last night and in general of course.

    The 'ol "No more stars, No longer a revenge game" (as discussed) reared its ugly head as the Nets could have gotten 'mini' revenge on the Heat for knocking them out of the playoffs but laid down like dogs because LBJ was gone and Wade sat. At home? Against the ragtag remaining group? TERRIBLE. Totally unmotivated and out of sorts.

    Will they get up for Kidd? Yes. And Kidd will get up for them too so I have to see the line. He is going to pull out all the stops and will run his team into the ground to win that game. But the Nets will too (I hope).

    The saving grace for the Nets is that it is a back to back after the Knicks tonight. But of course, that will effect the line.

    I'd like to hear your thoughts (unless you are posting this game so let me know) on the Sixers/Celtics (I'm leaning Celtics right now as the Sixers beat them 3 times last year) but I don't have a read on the line. I just don't see the Celtics, with their gutty performances of late, albeit all losses, letting the Sixers take them out once again. But again, I gotta see the line unless you have one already.

     

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    @BB - Nice metaphor!

    I gotta tell ya. I am VERY disturbed by the Nets performance last night and in general of course.

    The 'ol "No more stars, No longer a revenge game" (as discussed) reared its ugly head as the Nets could have gotten 'mini' revenge on the Heat for knocking them out of the playoffs but laid down like dogs because LBJ was gone and Wade sat. At home? Against the ragtag remaining group? TERRIBLE. Totally unmotivated and out of sorts.

    Will they get up for Kidd? Yes. And Kidd will get up for them too so I have to see the line. He is going to pull out all the stops and will run his team into the ground to win that game. But the Nets will too (I hope).

    The saving grace for the Nets is that it is a back to back after the Knicks tonight. But of course, that will effect the line.

    I'd like to hear your thoughts (unless you are posting this game so let me know) on the Sixers/Celtics (I'm leaning Celtics right now as the Sixers beat them 3 times last year) but I don't have a read on the line. I just don't see the Celtics, with their gutty performances of late, albeit all losses, letting the Sixers take them out once again. But again, I gotta see the line unless you have one already.

     

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 8:33 AM ET #33

    @Prime

    Spurs are DEFINITELY capable of winning B2B titles!

    Durant and West will be back and OKC will make the playoffs so cross that one off.

    D Rose is definitely a wild card but he sat out last night and they took out the Clippers.

    Warriors are a transformed team with a new and improved coach. And they kept their core instead of going after Love (smart).

    Clippers are a mess but they don't have the deep chemistry issues the Cavs have (who are a bigger hot mess).

    Mavs can beat the Cavs.

    Grizz can beat the Cavs.

    Rockets and Suns...right now I'll take one of the two over the Cavs.

    All I am saying is that the ticket they have (if they don't hedge and the overwhelming majority won't) isn't worth the paper it's printed on. 

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    @Prime

    Spurs are DEFINITELY capable of winning B2B titles!

    Durant and West will be back and OKC will make the playoffs so cross that one off.

    D Rose is definitely a wild card but he sat out last night and they took out the Clippers.

    Warriors are a transformed team with a new and improved coach. And they kept their core instead of going after Love (smart).

    Clippers are a mess but they don't have the deep chemistry issues the Cavs have (who are a bigger hot mess).

    Mavs can beat the Cavs.

    Grizz can beat the Cavs.

    Rockets and Suns...right now I'll take one of the two over the Cavs.

    All I am saying is that the ticket they have (if they don't hedge and the overwhelming majority won't) isn't worth the paper it's printed on. 

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 8:38 AM ET #34

    @Melos - I believe you are wrong.

    I believe the 30-1 bettors were casual $100 dolla bettors who threw down a hundred to have a chance to win $3,000 and who will have little to no money to hedge by the time the playoffs roll around, having lost it all the entire season.

    YES, there are sharps who will hedge. And how many sharps are there compared to squares. I'm not saying someone won't make money off it.

    But again, hedging is not that simple. Let's say the Cavs meet the Heat in the first round. Do you take the Heat series line or just hold onto the ticket. The overwhelming majority hold their ticket and get nothing (unless they buy out of a game 7 or such).

    And rangerz said you can buy out now. True. But that's just math. NO ONE, sharp or square is buying out now.

    So in the end, for the books, those tickets will be used to make smoke signals in front of an ATM machine.

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    @Melos - I believe you are wrong.

    I believe the 30-1 bettors were casual $100 dolla bettors who threw down a hundred to have a chance to win $3,000 and who will have little to no money to hedge by the time the playoffs roll around, having lost it all the entire season.

    YES, there are sharps who will hedge. And how many sharps are there compared to squares. I'm not saying someone won't make money off it.

    But again, hedging is not that simple. Let's say the Cavs meet the Heat in the first round. Do you take the Heat series line or just hold onto the ticket. The overwhelming majority hold their ticket and get nothing (unless they buy out of a game 7 or such).

    And rangerz said you can buy out now. True. But that's just math. NO ONE, sharp or square is buying out now.

    So in the end, for the books, those tickets will be used to make smoke signals in front of an ATM machine.

     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 11:20 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    @BB - Nice metaphor!

    I gotta tell ya. I am VERY disturbed by the Nets performance last night and in general of course.

    The 'ol "No more stars, No longer a revenge game" (as discussed) reared its ugly head as the Nets could have gotten 'mini' revenge on the Heat for knocking them out of the playoffs but laid down like dogs because LBJ was gone and Wade sat. At home? Against the ragtag remaining group? TERRIBLE. Totally unmotivated and out of sorts.

    Will they get up for Kidd? Yes. And Kidd will get up for them too so I have to see the line. He is going to pull out all the stops and will run his team into the ground to win that game. But the Nets will too (I hope).

    The saving grace for the Nets is that it is a back to back after the Knicks tonight. But of course, that will effect the line.

    I'd like to hear your thoughts (unless you are posting this game so let me know) on the Sixers/Celtics (I'm leaning Celtics right now as the Sixers beat them 3 times last year) but I don't have a read on the line. I just don't see the Celtics, with their gutty performances of late, albeit all losses, letting the Sixers take them out once again. But again, I gotta see the line unless you have one already.

     


    Yes, Scal, that was a putrid effort by the Nets. Had them in a small ML parlay with the Mavs. My angle was not revenge (because they were playing a Heat team without Wade and LBJ) but simply that they needed a win. Boy, do they blow. Maybe they were looking ahead to playing Kidd and the Bucks?! All I know is, if the owner shows up to the game against the Bucks then it is an easy bet. Still, I don't trust any of these teams to cover big numbers (even the Celtics playing a putrid sixers team). I will probably tease them all with the Niners. They are a very strong ML this week. I'd say 99% strong, and I'll have a write-up on them, so I'm teasing everything with that game (up to 10 units). Good luck.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    @BB - Nice metaphor!

    I gotta tell ya. I am VERY disturbed by the Nets performance last night and in general of course.

    The 'ol "No more stars, No longer a revenge game" (as discussed) reared its ugly head as the Nets could have gotten 'mini' revenge on the Heat for knocking them out of the playoffs but laid down like dogs because LBJ was gone and Wade sat. At home? Against the ragtag remaining group? TERRIBLE. Totally unmotivated and out of sorts.

    Will they get up for Kidd? Yes. And Kidd will get up for them too so I have to see the line. He is going to pull out all the stops and will run his team into the ground to win that game. But the Nets will too (I hope).

    The saving grace for the Nets is that it is a back to back after the Knicks tonight. But of course, that will effect the line.

    I'd like to hear your thoughts (unless you are posting this game so let me know) on the Sixers/Celtics (I'm leaning Celtics right now as the Sixers beat them 3 times last year) but I don't have a read on the line. I just don't see the Celtics, with their gutty performances of late, albeit all losses, letting the Sixers take them out once again. But again, I gotta see the line unless you have one already.

     


    Yes, Scal, that was a putrid effort by the Nets. Had them in a small ML parlay with the Mavs. My angle was not revenge (because they were playing a Heat team without Wade and LBJ) but simply that they needed a win. Boy, do they blow. Maybe they were looking ahead to playing Kidd and the Bucks?! All I know is, if the owner shows up to the game against the Bucks then it is an easy bet. Still, I don't trust any of these teams to cover big numbers (even the Celtics playing a putrid sixers team). I will probably tease them all with the Niners. They are a very strong ML this week. I'd say 99% strong, and I'll have a write-up on them, so I'm teasing everything with that game (up to 10 units). Good luck.
     
    PapaShango
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 11:38 AM ET #36

    Cavs will absolutely make the eastern conference finals at the very worst.  Raptors and Washington are not beating them in a 7 game series and if Rose is not healthy, Cavs can absolutely beat the Bulls.  Lebron and the Heat were also 5-4 in their first year and lost in the Finals.  They were 9-8 before they won 12 in a row and 21 of 22.  Let's wait before they finish half the season to jump to any conclusion.  9 games of 82 is way too small of a sample size to jump to any conclusion.  
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    Cavs will absolutely make the eastern conference finals at the very worst.  Raptors and Washington are not beating them in a 7 game series and if Rose is not healthy, Cavs can absolutely beat the Bulls.  Lebron and the Heat were also 5-4 in their first year and lost in the Finals.  They were 9-8 before they won 12 in a row and 21 of 22.  Let's wait before they finish half the season to jump to any conclusion.  9 games of 82 is way too small of a sample size to jump to any conclusion.  
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 12:43 PM ET #37

    Scal, lines just came out for me. I got Nets at -6, Celtics at -4 and Spurs at +3.5. I thought those lines were fair. I'll probably also tease them with the Niners for another unit when my book allows. 
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    Scal, lines just came out for me. I got Nets at -6, Celtics at -4 and Spurs at +3.5. I thought those lines were fair. I'll probably also tease them with the Niners for another unit when my book allows. 
     
    hradekbr
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 12:51 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    @hra - I'm not saying Bosh is better than Love! I'm saying Bosh was a better FIT than love who knew exactly what his role was and how he should contribute (and think about that when you are one of the league's top 20 players and you only need to be third in line to contribute!). Love is second in line and right now, doesn't fit well. He will at some point but how long will that last.
    And when the pressure of the playoffs is on, he'll fold like a deuce seven on the green felt.
    read this and then tell me if you change your mind at all.
    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/kevin-love-how-i-spent-my-summer-vacation/
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    @hra - I'm not saying Bosh is better than Love! I'm saying Bosh was a better FIT than love who knew exactly what his role was and how he should contribute (and think about that when you are one of the league's top 20 players and you only need to be third in line to contribute!). Love is second in line and right now, doesn't fit well. He will at some point but how long will that last.
    And when the pressure of the playoffs is on, he'll fold like a deuce seven on the green felt.
    read this and then tell me if you change your mind at all.
    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/kevin-love-how-i-spent-my-summer-vacation/
     
    schmeto
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 1:37 PM ET #39

    Bulls took the clippers but what kind of clippers? come on!

    it is not a chance that clippers was eliminated in PO last year because when details count they are not there.

    Cavs have potential to kill all teams when they are in best mode but it is too quickly now with this team to be steady and have all automatism and details a team need to be champions!
    without injury next year cavs will be champions not this one.

    I agree with some others members..OKC will be greatest spurs contenter if all players are healthy
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    Bulls took the clippers but what kind of clippers? come on!

    it is not a chance that clippers was eliminated in PO last year because when details count they are not there.

    Cavs have potential to kill all teams when they are in best mode but it is too quickly now with this team to be steady and have all automatism and details a team need to be champions!
    without injury next year cavs will be champions not this one.

    I agree with some others members..OKC will be greatest spurs contenter if all players are healthy
     
    schmeto
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 1:40 PM ET #40

    did you see Bulls playing without Rose and they have Gasol, they were lose or was in difficulties by lowest teams. Clippers lost as just an accident and clippers are not really a contender for me
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    did you see Bulls playing without Rose and they have Gasol, they were lose or was in difficulties by lowest teams. Clippers lost as just an accident and clippers are not really a contender for me
     
    lovethedough
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2014 - 1:49 PM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    They will not go all the way. Period.


    I agree.  No way they take the title this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    They will not go all the way. Period.


    I agree.  No way they take the title this year.
     
    Michfan15
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 4:05 PM ET #42

    OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1.  This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.
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    OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1.  This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.
     
    kevmode
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 4:14 PM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by examine:

    I am goin to go rather large on them on Wed vs the sketchy spurs

     


    I agree I believe the cavs play hard tonight statement game!
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    Quote Originally Posted by examine:

    I am goin to go rather large on them on Wed vs the sketchy spurs

     


    I agree I believe the cavs play hard tonight statement game!
     
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 4:19 PM ET #44

    It is them or Bulls in East no one else has chance without  major injury(Rose or LeBron).  It will come down to whether or not LeBron can get Irving to not be so selfish, Waiters is a lost cause.  Crazy statement to make IMO, they will get much better as year goes and unlike in the west they don't have to be  great for whole year to get in playoffs.
    Max Miller a great member of congress!
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    It is them or Bulls in East no one else has chance without  major injury(Rose or LeBron).  It will come down to whether or not LeBron can get Irving to not be so selfish, Waiters is a lost cause.  Crazy statement to make IMO, they will get much better as year goes and unlike in the west they don't have to be  great for whole year to get in playoffs.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 4:19 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

    OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1.  This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.


    How did they beat the market? Do you know what an unrealized gain is?

    Until you sell a stock you get this much for your 30-1 stock : $0.

    Longer you wait? Tougher it gets to buy out and Rangerz noted that you could buy out right now with a profit.

    There isn't a single person in the entire world buying out now and won't be in the near future, if at all. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

    OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1.  This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.


    How did they beat the market? Do you know what an unrealized gain is?

    Until you sell a stock you get this much for your 30-1 stock : $0.

    Longer you wait? Tougher it gets to buy out and Rangerz noted that you could buy out right now with a profit.

    There isn't a single person in the entire world buying out now and won't be in the near future, if at all. 
     
    WizardOfOdd
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 4:54 PM ET #46

    Wow, this has to be one of the most pathetic post you have made.  


    One, if you wanted to make this post before the season started, sure, but this is as bad as posting a winner after the game has started.

    Two, find me cavs at 30-1 right now and I'll take it all day every day at those odds.

    Three, Betting is about finding value, at 30-1 that is value! Regardless its a future bet or line bet, any player, thats any good, knows its about value and numbers.  So for you to clown on that, tells me what kind of player you are.  One that doesn't win.

    No need to argue back, I've made my points

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    Wow, this has to be one of the most pathetic post you have made.  


    One, if you wanted to make this post before the season started, sure, but this is as bad as posting a winner after the game has started.

    Two, find me cavs at 30-1 right now and I'll take it all day every day at those odds.

    Three, Betting is about finding value, at 30-1 that is value! Regardless its a future bet or line bet, any player, thats any good, knows its about value and numbers.  So for you to clown on that, tells me what kind of player you are.  One that doesn't win.

    No need to argue back, I've made my points

     
    kevmode
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 5:00 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

    OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1.  This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.

    I agree that if you got 30-1 on the Cavs you won.  If the Cavs make the finals you can go with it or hedge.  This give you opportunitys to hedge or let it ride.  Not sure if the Cavs win it this year but 30-1 is insanevalue.  Scal I disagree with you on this thread it is too early to count the CAvs out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

    OP is just plain ignorant...you already won and beat the market by securing 30/1.  This thread is just perfectly aligning for a bump and scalabrine destruction come June.

    I agree that if you got 30-1 on the Cavs you won.  If the Cavs make the finals you can go with it or hedge.  This give you opportunitys to hedge or let it ride.  Not sure if the Cavs win it this year but 30-1 is insanevalue.  Scal I disagree with you on this thread it is too early to count the CAvs out.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2014 - 5:15 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by WizardOfOdd:

    Wow, this has to be one of the most pathetic post you have made.  


    One, if you wanted to make this post before the season started, sure, but this is as bad as posting a winner after the game has started.

    Two, find me cavs at 30-1 right now and I'll take it all day every day at those odds.

    Three, Betting is about finding value, at 30-1 that is value! Regardless its a future bet or line bet, any player, thats any good, knows its about value and numbers.  So for you to clown on that, tells me what kind of player you are.  One that doesn't win.

    No need to argue back, I've made my points


    No need to argue back! Lol.

    You've made points alright and they a pretty incoherent.

    1. I said in SEVERAL threads the Cavs would not win the championship before the season and after the Love trade so this is a reiteration of that and a rant, which I wanted to write.

    2. Not sure why people keep saying this. You cannot get those odds right now and the fact you would take them does not disprove my point, in that, the ticket will be worthless regardless of when you purchase it.

    3. Betting is not about finding  value for the average bettor. It is about finding a side they like and putting money on it.  And as Vegas can tell you, they end up with the side that had the least value not the most.

    The above average bettor or even the sharp may hedge out of this bet at some point: but when? And for how much? And does the average hundred dollar bettor want to take another team with his team down 3-2 and possibly able to win the series? He put $100 or $200 on this future. Then he's going to put thousands on adjusted series lines? Where? Vegas? Is he in Vegas at the time? Can he deposit THOUSANDS into his online account? Is he ready to lose a thousand or thousands if the Cavs make the finals? Depositing/Cashing out/when to hedge/ if to hedge/ makes this all come down to one result for the Majority of Cavs futures holders....

    These are all real life considerations that short-sighted posters like yourself don't consider, no less understand.

    The majority will keep their ticket like every square and ride it out .

    And I am here to say that baby belongs in a shredder.

    Because it will pay exactly $0. Just because a sharp chases out doesn't mean Vegas doesn't make money on this at 30-1 or 3-1.

    That is the entire point of this thread. The Cavs need to win the last game of the season. They won't resulting in worthless futures at any price (regardless of the small segment that hedges).

    Anything else? If not, run along.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizardOfOdd:

    Wow, this has to be one of the most pathetic post you have made.  


    One, if you wanted to make this post before the season started, sure, but this is as bad as posting a winner after the game has started.

    Two, find me cavs at 30-1 right now and I'll take it all day every day at those odds.

    Three, Betting is about finding value, at 30-1 that is value! Regardless its a future bet or line bet, any player, thats any good, knows its about value and numbers.  So for you to clown on that, tells me what kind of player you are.  One that doesn't win.

    No need to argue back, I've made my points


    No need to argue back! Lol.

    You've made points alright and they a pretty incoherent.

    1. I said in SEVERAL threads the Cavs would not win the championship before the season and after the Love trade so this is a reiteration of that and a rant, which I wanted to write.

    2. Not sure why people keep saying this. You cannot get those odds right now and the fact you would take them does not disprove my point, in that, the ticket will be worthless regardless of when you purchase it.

    3. Betting is not about finding  value for the average bettor. It is about finding a side they like and putting money on it.  And as Vegas can tell you, they end up with the side that had the least value not the most.

    The above average bettor or even the sharp may hedge out of this bet at some point: but when? And for how much? And does the average hundred dollar bettor want to take another team with his team down 3-2 and possibly able to win the series? He put $100 or $200 on this future. Then he's going to put thousands on adjusted series lines? Where? Vegas? Is he in Vegas at the time? Can he deposit THOUSANDS into his online account? Is he ready to lose a thousand or thousands if the Cavs make the finals? Depositing/Cashing out/when to hedge/ if to hedge/ makes this all come down to one result for the Majority of Cavs futures holders....

    These are all real life considerations that short-sighted posters like yourself don't consider, no less understand.

    The majority will keep their ticket like every square and ride it out .

    And I am here to say that baby belongs in a shredder.

    Because it will pay exactly $0. Just because a sharp chases out doesn't mean Vegas doesn't make money on this at 30-1 or 3-1.

    That is the entire point of this thread. The Cavs need to win the last game of the season. They won't resulting in worthless futures at any price (regardless of the small segment that hedges).

    Anything else? If not, run along.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 10:49 PM ET #49

    11/21/14

    Wizards - 91 Cavs - 78

    I'll post some of the stinkers during the season. This was a real doozy.

    The lowlights:

    13 4th quarter point vs. Washington

    Lebron completely out of sorts with an lackadaisical 8-21.

    Klove - 3-8 and 8 pts

    Tristan Thompson - 4

    Miller -3

    Waiters - 22 minutes and two...count em two points.

    A horrendous 9 bench points

    One loss does not a futures ticket get determined on but Lebron had that look tonight, that 'ol fingernail biting look he had early in his career where he knew, he just knew his team, although it would excel at some point, just wouldn't make it over that hump.

    I wonder how many bettors are selling off their 30-1 right now (no one).

    I wonder how many will sell off before the all-star break (no one).

    I wonder what those bettors will do and how they will hedge when the Cavs meet the Wizards, or the Raptors or the Bulls in, potentially, an early round of the playoffs, a round they could easily get knocked off in.

    I wonder how much the average square will 'sell off' that 30-1 with the Cavs as dogs, hence, they'll have to bet into a negative moneyline (costing them even more), when they purchased their original future for $100/$200/$300.

    Will they deposit $1,000/$2,000 into their account to hedge in the second round (no folks, they won't).


    Folks, the logistics of hedging, the reality of hedging, is quite complicated when you have to move cash you might not have and/or are willing to lose (that is, the Cavs can certainly win the second round matchup and you are then down 1k or 2k and still hold a 30-1 ticket that hasn't cashed yet).

    In the end, very few will hedge, very few will buy out effectively, leaving one sound for the majority of Cavs futures bettor holders:

     

    The Sound of Music to Vegas...

     

    The Sound....of a Shredder...

     

    BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

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    11/21/14

    Wizards - 91 Cavs - 78

    I'll post some of the stinkers during the season. This was a real doozy.

    The lowlights:

    13 4th quarter point vs. Washington

    Lebron completely out of sorts with an lackadaisical 8-21.

    Klove - 3-8 and 8 pts

    Tristan Thompson - 4

    Miller -3

    Waiters - 22 minutes and two...count em two points.

    A horrendous 9 bench points

    One loss does not a futures ticket get determined on but Lebron had that look tonight, that 'ol fingernail biting look he had early in his career where he knew, he just knew his team, although it would excel at some point, just wouldn't make it over that hump.

    I wonder how many bettors are selling off their 30-1 right now (no one).

    I wonder how many will sell off before the all-star break (no one).

    I wonder what those bettors will do and how they will hedge when the Cavs meet the Wizards, or the Raptors or the Bulls in, potentially, an early round of the playoffs, a round they could easily get knocked off in.

    I wonder how much the average square will 'sell off' that 30-1 with the Cavs as dogs, hence, they'll have to bet into a negative moneyline (costing them even more), when they purchased their original future for $100/$200/$300.

    Will they deposit $1,000/$2,000 into their account to hedge in the second round (no folks, they won't).


    Folks, the logistics of hedging, the reality of hedging, is quite complicated when you have to move cash you might not have and/or are willing to lose (that is, the Cavs can certainly win the second round matchup and you are then down 1k or 2k and still hold a 30-1 ticket that hasn't cashed yet).

    In the end, very few will hedge, very few will buy out effectively, leaving one sound for the majority of Cavs futures bettor holders:

     

    The Sound of Music to Vegas...

     

    The Sound....of a Shredder...

     

    BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

     
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 12:36 AM ET #50

    Didn't see many post it here, if that's what you mean.

    Worldwide? Yeah, there's a lot of 30-1's out there..

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    Didn't see many post it here, if that's what you mean.

    Worldwide? Yeah, there's a lot of 30-1's out there..

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