Here's today's report (2026-07-31) —
season line 201-92-54, +17.06% ROI, trend DOWN (weekly +2.06 · +0.46 · +1.23 · -0.84u):
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds — 6:10 PM ET
S02 (F5): Bet Pittsburgh -145 (conf 4) · edge +9.4pt
Starters
Pittsburgh — Paul Skenes (RHP), 22 GS: 3.88 ERA (116 ERA+) / 2.82 xERA, 1.08 WHIP | 149 K, 11.1 K/9, K% 30.4, BB% 5.7,
Whiff% 28.5 | FB 96.9 mph (2,181 rpm), Stuff+ 100.
Cincinnati — Hunter Greene (RHP), 4 GS: 7.06 ERA (70 ERA+) / 4.68 xERA, 1.34 WHIP | 29 K, 12.1 K/9, K% 30.9, BB% 7.4,
Whiff% 27.2 | FB 98.4 mph (2,390 rpm), Stuff+ 107.
Form — Skenes: 2.82 season xERA, improving (per-start 3.65?3.44), Stuff+ 100.
Kalshi 54.5% · F5 move -134?-145 (+1.8pt toward PIT).
Bottom line — Best look: elite ace improving, line moving with the pick. Greene's 7.06 ERA is a 4.68 xERA over 4 noisy
starts — the high-opp-Stuff+ profile S02 does best against.
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Detroit Tigers @ Sacramento Athletics — 9:40 PM ET
S02 (F5): Bet Detroit -145 (conf 5, FRONTRUNNER) · edge +9.4pt
Starters
Detroit — Casey Mize (RHP), 16 GS: 2.70 ERA (152 ERA+) / 3.07 xERA, 0.99 WHIP | 85 K, 8.8 K/9, K% 24.9, BB% 5.6,
Whiff% 27.8 | FB 93.5 mph (2,264 rpm), Stuff+ 98.
Sacramento — Jeffrey Springs (LHP), 21 GS: 6.23 ERA (71 ERA+) / 4.87 xERA, 1.45 WHIP | 86 K, 7.4 K/9, K% 18.7, BB%
8.5, Whiff% 23.6 | FB 91.4 mph (2,146 rpm), Stuff+ 91.
Form — Mize: 3.07 season xERA, steady (per-start 4.09?4.01), Stuff+ 98.
Kalshi 56.5% · F5 move -168?-148 (-3.0pt against DET).
Bottom line — Genuine mismatch — Springs is soft in ERA, xERA, WHIP, K's and stuff — with a conf-5 FRONTRUNNER. Only
knock: line drifting off Detroit.
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Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners — 10:10 PM ET
S02 (F5): Bet Seattle -166 (conf 5, FRONTRUNNER) · edge +6.2pt
Starters
Seattle — Bryce Miller (RHP), 11 GS: 2.69 ERA (197 ERA+) / 2.65 xERA, 0.91 WHIP | 67 K, 9.5 K/9, K% 26.9, BB% 4.2,
Whiff% 27.4 | FB 96.1 mph (2,516 rpm), Stuff+ 101.
Minnesota — Zebby Matthews (RHP), 13 GS: 5.21 ERA (79 ERA+) / 4.74 xERA, 1.32 WHIP | 59 K, 7.0 K/9, K% 18.5, BB% 7.5,
Whiff% 21.9 | FB 95.2 mph (2,296 rpm), Stuff+ 92.
Form — Miller: 2.65 season xERA, improving (per-start 4.23?3.69), Stuff+ 101.
Kalshi 60.5% · F5 move -190?-170 (-2.6pt against SEA).
Bottom line — Real mismatch and Miller's excellent and improving; Seattle firmed back to -166 (edge now +6.2). Solid,
just the priciest of the three with the line drifting off it.
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Slate: Pittsburgh is the standout (line moving toward the pick). All three are real ace-vs-soft-ERA spots; Detroit and
Seattle have the market drifting against them. The report now carries full pitching lines for both starters, the xERA
on the form line, pre-game Kalshi, and F5 movement — all committed to /s02-report.
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