S-ERA-WHIP-COMBO report — season 184-102-1, +16.59% ROI, 64.3% WR, trend DOWN (weekly +2.41 · +0.41 ·
+2.63 · -0.66u). 6 full-game ML picks (games now in progress):
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds — 6:10 PM ET · Bet Pittsburgh -120 (conf 4) · edge +9.8pt
PICK — Paul Skenes (RHP), 22 GS: 3.88 ERA (116 ERA+) / 2.82 xERA, 1.08 WHIP | 149 K, 11.1 K/9, K% 30.4, BB% 5.7,
Whiff% 28.5, FB 96.9 mph, Stuff+ 100.
OPP — Hunter Greene (RHP), 4 GS: 7.06 ERA / 4.68 xERA, 1.34 WHIP | 12.1 K/9, K% 30.9, FB 98.4 mph, Stuff+ 107.
Form: 2.82 season xERA, improving. Kalshi 54.5% = book 54.5% · move -125?-125 (flat).
Best value: Kalshi agrees exactly with the book, line's stable, Greene's ERA is noise (4.68 xERA).
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles — 7:05 PM ET · Bet Baltimore -119 (conf 4) · edge +10.0pt
PICK — Brandon Young (RHP), 17 GS: 3.41 ERA (120 ERA+) / 4.11 xERA, 1.30 WHIP | K% 19.3, Stuff+ 95.
OPP — Andrew Painter (RHP), 12 GS: 7.36 ERA / 5.21 xERA, 1.73 WHIP | K% 17.7, Stuff+ 95.
Form: 4.11 season xERA, steady. Kalshi 52.5% vs book 54.3% · move -120?-119 (-0.2).
ERA gap huge, xERA gap thinner (4.11 vs 5.21), Kalshi slightly under the book — solid but not dominant.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets — 7:10 PM ET · Bet Miami +105 (conf 4) · edge +15.5pt
PICK — Janson Junk (RHP), 14 GS: 4.89 ERA / 4.02 xERA, 1.36 WHIP | K% 18.0, Stuff+ 98.
OPP — Kodai Senga (RHP), 7 GS: 10.08 ERA / 5.42 xERA, 1.92 WHIP | K% 25.3, BB% 15.5, Stuff+ 93.
Form: 4.02 season xERA, steady. Kalshi 47.5% vs book 48.8% · move +110?+101 (+2.1pt toward Miami).
Biggest edge, and the only plus-money dog. Senga's ERA is inflated (5.42 xERA) but his 15.5% walk rate is a real
control problem, and the line's moving toward Miami.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians — 7:10 PM ET · Bet Cleveland -133 (conf 4) · edge +7.2pt
PICK — Tanner Bibee (RHP), 22 GS: 3.89 ERA (110 ERA+) / 4.49 xERA, 1.18 WHIP | K% 19.0, Stuff+ 97.
OPP — Mitch Bratt (LHP), 4 GS: 6.32 ERA / 5.10 xERA, 1.98 WHIP | K% 13.0, BB% 14.3, Stuff+ 89.
OPP — Mitch Bratt (LHP), 4 GS: 6.32 ERA / 5.10 xERA, 1.98 WHIP | K% 13.0, BB% 14.3, Stuff+ 89.
Form: 4.49 season xERA, steady. Kalshi 56.5% ˜ book 57.1% · move -133?-135 (+0.4).
Bibee's xERA (4.49) only modestly beats Bratt's (5.10) — surface-ERA-driven, but Bratt's 4-start sample + 14% walk
rate add risk.
Detroit Tigers @ Sacramento Athletics — 9:40 PM ET · Bet Detroit -138 (conf 4) · edge +6.3pt
PICK — Casey Mize (RHP), 16 GS: 2.70 ERA (152 ERA+) / 3.07 xERA, 0.99 WHIP | K% 24.9, Stuff+ 98.
OPP — Jeffrey Springs (LHP), 21 GS: 6.23 ERA / 4.87 xERA, 1.45 WHIP | K% 18.7, Stuff+ 91.
Form: 3.07 season xERA, steady. Kalshi 56.5% vs book 58.0% · move -155?-140 (-2.5pt against).
Clean separation (Mize better in ERA, xERA, WHIP, K's) but the line drifted off Detroit — negative-CLV spot.
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners — 10:10 PM ET · Bet Seattle -154 (conf 4) · edge +3.7pt
PICK — Bryce Miller (RHP), 11 GS: 2.69 ERA (197 ERA+) / 2.65 xERA, 0.91 WHIP | K% 26.9, Stuff+ 101.
OPP — Zebby Matthews (RHP), 13 GS: 5.21 ERA / 4.74 xERA, 1.32 WHIP | K% 18.5, Stuff+ 92.
Form: 2.65 season xERA, improving. Kalshi 60.1% vs book 60.6% · move -185?-160 (-3.4pt against).
Best arm on the board and a real mismatch, but thinnest edge (+3.7) and the biggest line move against it.
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?? CLV lens: the strategy's known weakness shows tonight — Detroit (-2.5) and Seattle (-3.4) lines drifting against
the picks, and most Kalshi numbers sitting just under the book. Pittsburgh (Kalshi = book, flat line) and Miami (+dog,
line moving toward it) are the cleanest of the six. All 6 are PENDING — I can grade them once tonight's slate
finishes.
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