The line to me suggests that David Peterson's luck runs out in St. Louis.
For starters, he's gotten absolutely smashed by the Cards lineup this year.
As a Met, he lasted only 3.2 innings on June 10th, giving up 6 earned on 7 hits(2 hr's), 2 walks and 1 strikeout.
As a Cub only 2 starts ago on July 3rd, only 3.2 innings again, 10 earned on 9 hits(1 hr), 3 walks and 3 strikeouts.
Peterson has looked good from the peripheral view in his last 2 starts. Sporting a 0.77 era, although the fip of 4.48 suggests he got lucky. I can attest that luck against the Tigers. He's a fly ball guy, and the wind was blowing in that day. The Tigers are thee WORST hitting team against fly ball guys. Worst ops at .684. Compared to the Cards at .735
Today, the wind is blowing out to straight center at 7mph. It's gonna be 91 degrees, with 49% humidity. Not too humid, but conditions favor hitters here, unlike at Detroit for Peterson.
Plenty more to dissect. The Cardinals aren't hitting shit right now, but is this a spot vs a pitcher they own to turn things around?
This is a big rivalry, NL Central games have been wars this year.
Left hander Matthew Liberatore will toe the rubber vs the Cubs.
His first time against them this year, at home on May 31st he owned them. 5.1 innings of scoreless innings, 3 hits, 1 walk and 4 strikeouts.
His 2nd time at Wrigley didn't go as well. 2 starts ago on July 5th, 5 innings, 3 earned on 4 hits, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts.
Looking at both teams hitting vs LHP in the first 5 innings since July 8th.
Cubs 73 plate appearances, .295/.821
Cards 89 plate appearances, .247/.779
Although, the Cubs babip is .375 in this span, and the Cards is .298, it's another luck(or not) thing that's hard to predict if it flips here, or not.
In this same span, the Cards have had a much better isolated power #, .195 vs the Cubs at .115. This is the area where I think Peterson really gets into trouble, considering the Cards history against him, and the weather conditions.
I like the Cards here, a home dog with short odds. With the public betting on the Cubs with 74% of the bets and 75% of the money(supposedly).
This could be a F5 inning target only.
Any opinions welcome.
Tornadoes hit random burbs out here in Illinois.
Went to check on the garage where I keep my boat, no damage thankfully. But there's half a tree down in the yard, holes in the wooden fence on one side, and the other neighbors fence completely blown over. Wind bending steel is quite the site.
What a day.
My morning started with 2 Mexican dudes putting in a new furnace and AC unit at my place 3 towns over. They faced the rain, wind and tornado sirens. God bless them they got the job done. Gave em a hundo for a tip.
Stay safe out there folks
Thanks for the sharing your angle, especially with the Liberatore on the mound. Curious why you went with 7/8 range start date as opposed to an earlier (6/1 or 7/1) or later (post all-star break)? I'm personally leaning cubs ML (based on cubs vs LHP and recent rise in Elo and playoff odds%), but your angle makes me want to pause since it makes sense. Regardless I wish you the BOL
When looking at first 5 innings only, vs left handed pitching, I start at a more recent date, then go back until there's an ample amount of plate appearances. There aren't many left handed starters in the league.
Whatever date you go back to since July 1, the Cubs are better than the Cards in that department. BA, OPS, k% and bb%. The cards only better at ISO.
Seeing an edge for the Cards in the first 3 innings, I think that's the way I'm gonna play it.
Can't trust the Cards hitting in the 4th and 5th innings, whether Peterson is still in or not.
And I don't trust Liberatore's pitching in the 4th and 5th innings. He's been awful.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
