Posted:
#26
Good luck smack! 
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Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by Pizbet:
Hello, how about home/away run differential as an additional filter? for example the Dodgers are currently +30, but +35 at home and -5 away. SFG are currently -19, and -12 at home. I picked this example because yesterday I somehow liked SFG but couldn't pull the trigger
My first reaction to this is extremely positive...
What site do you have that lists that stat in particular?
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Posted:
#34
The system went 3-4 tonight and is 13-6 over 3 days of operation...
The two borderline games both lost...Oakland continues to slump and the pitching advantages of Pittsburgh over Texas played out with Pittsburgh winning...take those 2 out and it went 3-2 on the solid plays...
Also had two games the system was set to play rained out...
For Wednesday, there are several already locked in...
T.B. Devil Rays (+47) at K.C. (-24)...also looking at the home/away splits now in the run differential...(+34) vs (-9)...Also, they are playing a double header tomorrow so don't forget to double bet it if you are playing the system...
Toronto (+11) at LA Angels (-19)...home/away (+7) vs (-18)
Some notable NO PLAYS now that the home/away splits are being used....
CW Sox (-13) vs Baltimore (-64)...home/away (-19) vs (-21)
St. Louis (+31) at Washington (-19)...home/away (+2) vs (-1)
Philadelphia (+14) vs Detroit (-23)...home/away (-4) vs (-5)
Cincinnati (+11) at NY Mets (-20)...home/away (-4) vs (-10)
LA Dodgers (+30) at S.F. Giants (-19)...home/away (-5) vs (-12)
Some of these numbers may not have updated to reflect today's game outcomes so some plays MAY change tomorrow...
As you can see, adding the home/away split records really reduced the number of selections...from 7 down to 2...not sure if its good or bad at this point...but, it will all be written down here so it can be evaluated...
Remember...Seattle sucks defensively at an EPIC rate...and the Royals are the best in the league defensively...Texas leads the lead in average runs scored per game at OVER 6 runs per game...but has the 2nd worst pitching in the league...
Translation...Texas is going to have inflated OVER lines...like tonight where it was 11...didn't look like it was going to get close to that number but BAM...NEWSFLASH...LeClerc sucks as a pitcher...run total for the game hit 10...
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Posted:
#36
System went 0-3 on main picks...
Notable NO PLAY games went 4-2...so in this case it would have been better to keep the home/away records out of it ...
A 4-5 night is better than an 0-3 by a mile...
Hard to explain the Devil Ray futility tonight...and when I saw almost the entire board on Toronto...I was very concerned and it turned out as I feared...
System 13-9 overall now in 4 days..
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Posted:
#37
Stanek gave up his first runs (3) when starting a bullpen game this year. KC had only one hit after the first inning as TB blew several opportunities to tie and or take the lead. TB out hit the Royals 8-4. Game 2 I believe the Rays just thought they could show up with their ace going. Nope KC was ready in the B1 again. It happens.
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:
Stanek gave up his first runs (3) when starting a bullpen game this year. KC had only one hit after the first inning as TB blew several opportunities to tie and or take the lead. TB out hit the Royals 8-4. Game 2 I believe the Rays just thought they could show up with their ace going. Nope KC was ready in the B1 again. It happens.
Stanek gave up his first runs (3) when starting a bullpen game this year. KC had only one hit after the first inning as TB blew several opportunities to tie and or take the lead. TB out hit the Royals 8-4. Game 2 I believe the Rays just thought they could show up with their ace going. Nope KC was ready in the B1 again. It happens.
I always remember that Ron Washington quote back when he was the manager of the Texas Rangers...when asked how his team could lose a game when leading by some huge number of runs..
"Dat's dee way 'bazeball' go..."...
I think that might have been one of those games he had a bit of blow beforehand....
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Posted:
#39
After further review...
I'm going to keep this system simple because I am stupid...
For now, going to ignore the home/away aspects and just set the plays based on the overall run differential...adjusting the record and including last nights "notable no plays"...
System record is 17-11 after 4 days...
Today's plays are...
Cincinnati (+11) at NYM (-20)
Atlanta (+8) vs S.D. (-13)
T.B. Devil Rays (+40) at K.C. (-17)
St. Louis (+36) at Washington (-6)
Other notes...
Boston has been making a bit of a run ...in the last 3 games where they went 3-0, they have improved +13 in run diff to -23...and they are 6-4 in their last 10...
Last year, they were second in baseball to Houston (+270) at +262 in run diff...they still are in the bottom 5 of run diff in all teams this year...long ways to go to climb out of the cellar, however, might be some kind of epic run if they do get their act together...
The other 4 teams in the bottom 5 and their performance this and last year?...
Detroit (-25).... (-166)
S.F. (-25)..... (-96)
Miami (-59)....(-220)
Baltimore (-64)...(-270)
Boston will not stay in this group all year...right?............RIGHT??
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Posted:
#41
System was 1-3 last night...Overall record now 18-14 after 5 days...
Tonight's plays...
Philly (+16) vs Washington (-5)
T.B. Devil Rays (+42) at Baltimore (-64)
Atlanta (-1) at Miami (-59)
Cincinnati (+10) vs S.F. (-25)
Arizona (+23) at Colorado (-1)
Might consider Philly and Arizona borderline plays as they are at a (21) and (24) differential advantage respectively and my cutoff for the system is a (20) but they are plays nonetheless...
Good luck tonight!
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Posted:
#44
Very nice night for the system going 5-1...overall now 23-15 after 6 days...that's a nice 60.5% winning rate...
Today's plays....
Atlanta (+4) at Miami (-64)
T.B. Devil Rays (+49) at Baltimore (-71)
Oakland (-3) at Pittsburgh (-30)
Cincinnati (+9) vs S.F. (--24)
Arizona (+24) at Colorado (-2)
Houston (+28) at LA Angels (+2)
Good luck today gents!
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Posted:
#45
Less than a week ago...
The Boston Red Sox were at a -36 run differential...
After today...they should be in the negative single digits...
They are starting the run I was beginning to see a few days ago...
Time to start playing them as this could be a real money making run...
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Posted:
#46
Strange...I wrote down my list of plays on paper but left off the last play on the list when I posted the plays for today above...
LA Dodgers (+37) at San Diego (-5)
Clearly met all the criteria and was a winner...
System plays went 5-2 today and should have gone 6-1 if not for an epic Oakland collapse... 
And, of course, somehow the Devil Rays completely forgot how to hit the baseball...oh well...
Still a good night...as Steve Harvey would say...
Overall now 28-17 completing the first week of the system...
62.2% win rate...
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:
Good luck smack!
Good luck smack!
Thank you, Sir! and you as well today and every day!...
and you as well today and every day!...Monster card today for the system!!!!....
Let's get to it!!!...
T.B. Devil Rays (+46) at Baltimore (-68)
Atlanta (+41) at Miami (-71)
K.C. Royals (-8) at Detroit (-36)
Oakland (-5) at Pittsburgh (-28)
Philadelphia (+16) vs Washington (-5)
Boston (-7) at CW Sox (-29)
Arizona (+31) at Colorado (-9)
LA Dodgers (+38) at S.D. (-6)
Cincinnati (+16) vs S.F. (-31)
Houston (+40) at LA Angels (-10)
Borderline games here, to me, would be Oakland, K.C., Arizona and the LA Dodgers...this is based on pitcher comparison...however, as usual, these will all be plays for the system...
Best of luck today!...
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Posted:
#50
The system went 4-5 yesterday...Overall now 32-22 after 8 days...
Interestingly,
if you had not played the 4 borderline plays I mentioned you would have
gone 4-1 on the day with your only loss being Cincinnati which actually
should have won that game...
Basically, it
seems that playing the system and then modifying it further by removing
games where the fade team has the better pitcher seems to produce the
best results...
I will continue to list all
plays the system produces and then list the borderline plays so that we
can keep an eye on this output as well...
First play today for the system ...
S.F. (-30) at Cincy (+15)
Will have the others out in a bit...
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