Phillies vs Dodgers in NLCS who ya got?

And to add to my post above, Dodgers had all the hype in the world last year with Manny going off in the 2nd half and got wrecked by the Phillies, what changes this year? Raul Ibanez X-Factor.

   That was the exact same reasoning used in the LA/St Louis series.  

holyshiet i cant believe what ive read from the philly homers

-Loso u say what changed this year????  Ummm lets see Brad Lidge went from Lights Out Lidge to Mr. I Blew The Most Saves in the entire MLB season this year and the other relievers are shaky too. 

Let me ask you and everyone else on Philly........... you all might want to research how many teams in the entire MLB history with shaky bullpens have gone on to win the World Series. 

Cole Hamels is not the same form he was last year but a shadow of what he used to be.  On the one positive side the Phillies did pick up Lee.

Now lets examine the Dodgers.  Since last year the younger players have stepped up just look at Ethier, Kemp, and Loney.  And lets not forget Manny was suspended for 50 games and guess what we won tons of games without him.  So these young players have found their identity.

We also picked up impact reserve bench players and are loaded in that area.  For offense picking up Belliard was a boost to our hitting at crucial times. Oh and we also picked up another lefty Sherrill and I've watched him in prior seasons with Baltimore and that man can close games.  Our bullpen is one of the strongest in the game and they will shut the door on dat ass.  On one negative note for the Dodgers this year Manny has slumped the 2nd half but I did like how he picked it up going 3-4 in the last game vs the Cardinals with two doubles.

So yeah Loso a lot has changed since last year, and Raul Ibanez the X-Factor???? lol    Please just sit down as your humor is not amusing. 

-To Trojan Todd my thoughts exactly. 

-Pai Gow like your writeup man. 

-Sports_Rookie Good writeup to take both teams at plus money as I did already early in the season with a very nice payout.  On the Angels vs. Yanks I agree with your opinion that the Angels are the only team that can compete with the Yankees and stop them.  However I do believe that if the Dodgers and Angels win that Dodgers will have a shot against them in a WS championship and love the fact that there will be no home field advantage as opposed to playing the Yankees at their house is not a comforting feeling.

I respeKt Philly as a good team however with their bullpen problems I just don't see them going all the way.  Good luck to you Philly fans though.  And heres to a great NLCS rematch. 

The Dodgers fan questions Ibanez in left while they have the worst fielding LF in the history of baseball.


And, Lee will go game 6.  They did have breaks between game 4 and 5 and between game 5 and 6.

Series goes:  Thurs, Fri, Sun, Mon, Wed, Fri, Sat

Lee pitches game 3 and 6 on 4 days rest, not two

Not one Dodgers fan has addressed how bad the Dodgers pitchers are against the Phils and how great Hamels is against the Dodgers even in 09 SKEET

STUCK-ey whenever you speak all I hear is BLAH BLAH BLAH.  This is the playoffs get with the times. Or better yet why don't you shop on eBay and see if there is a Time Machine for sale so you can go back to 2008 lol 

It looks like I'm going to have to make someone look silly for the second straight week.

People who don't know much about baseball should stop pretending that they do. I'd also like to hear a response from someone who doesn't a picture of a green bird or the location "Pennsylvania" in their avatar.

Now, let's get to the facts.

Starting pitching even is comical.

I agree! The Dodgers' pitching outclasses the Philly pitching in pretty much every regard.

Starting pitchers ERA:

Dodgers: 3.58
Phillies: 4.29

And because ERA is a pretty incomplete stat, FIP for SP:

Dodgers (3rd in baseball): 3.83
Phillies (20th in baseball): 4.46

Strikeouts/9 innings

Dodgers: 7.54
Phillies: 6.87

Batting average against:

Dodgers: .235
Phillies: .273

Swings outside of the strike zone induced:

Dodgers: 26.9%
Phillies: 24.5%

Contact on outside swings:

Dodgers: 62.5%
Phillies: 65.4%

So, as we see, the Dodgers pitching staff outclassed the Phillies pitching staff in a big way this year in a ton of different categories. Phillies play in a tough ballpark, obviously, but even the park-adjusted stats like the Dodgers' staff a ton more than the Phillies' staff.

You say all we have is Lee.  You guys have nothing.

I wouldn't say that Lee is all but that's pretty close to being right.

Oh, and on to the other point.

FIP:

Clayton Kershaw: 3.08

Cliff Lee: 3.11

It's a wash.

ERA

Kershaw: 2.8

Lee: 3.2

Kershaw strikes out 50% more guys, Lee walks way less guys. Once again, it's a wash.

These are two lefties who were, for all intents and purposes, exactly as effective this season. They did it in different ways, but according to FIP (Fielding independent pitching), they were the same amount of good.

Hamels, our clear cut second, is better than any one of your starters and absolutely kills the Dodgers.

No. He's not.

Hamels FIP:

3.72

Clayton Kershaw FIP: 3.08, Billingsley FIP: 3.82, Wolf FIP: 3.96, Vicente Padilla FIP (in 7 starts): 3.40

Hamels ERA:

4.32

Kershaw ERA: 2.8, Bills ERA: 4.03, Wolf ERA: 3.23, Padilla ERA: 3.20, Kuroda: 3.76

Hamels GB %: 40.4

Kuroda: 49.5%, Padilla: 46.7%, Billingsley: 45.3%, Kershaw: 39.4%, WolfL 39.6%

I've given you 5 starters with an ERA lower than Hamels' ERA. I've given you guys with better FIP numbers. I've given you a laundry list of guys who get more ground balls.

So, like I said, you're clearly wrong about Cole Hamels.

Blanton, Pedro and Happ have been consistent all year.

Inconsequential. They've been consistent enough to be a part of a starting rotation that ranks 20th out of 30 ML teams in FIP.

You guys have ZERO consistency in your rotation.

This doesn't even make sense. The Dodgers led the big leagues in ERA this year by like .3. They were a third of a run better than every other team in the majors.

"Consistency"? I'll just take being good.

Here you once again prove that you don't know what the hell you're talking about. If the Phillies were "consistent" in their pitching staff, it was "consistently" mediocre.

You don't post the majors' lowest ERA (by a ton) without being consistently GOOD.

Starting pitching: HUGE Phillies advantage

ERA: Phillies: 4.29, Dodgers: 3.58
FIP: Phillies: 4.46, Dodgers: 3.83

I think we've proven that this is a blatant lie. If anything the Dodgers pitching is an advantage in this series.

Starting lineup: COMICAL Phillies advantage

wOBA:

Phillies: .340
Dodgers: .331

OBP

Phillies: .334
Dodgers: .346

The Phillies have the better offense...slightly. When you take into account park effects, it's pretty close. This is hardly what you'd call a "comical" advantage.

Intangibles/Experience: Phillies advantage

Leave it to someone who doesn't really know what they're talking about to think that intangibles play a role in who wins baseball games.

Honestly, what the hell does this even mean?

I also don't think the fact that Jimmy Rollins played in the World Series last year is going to have anything to do with how well he plays in the NLCS this year.

Do you also believe in the Easter bunny? Santa Claus? Ferries? Dragons?

Home field: Yes, you have it, but the Phils are the best road team in baseball

True, until you consider that they were 35-13 against:

Florida, Cincy, Mets, Pirates, Zona, San Diego, Toronto, and Washington.

Sweet, they piled up a ton of road wins against the worst teams in the NL and an AL East bottom feeder.

Phils in six.

Fitting. When all evidence shows that the Dodgers are the better team overall here, choose the other side. It makes sense.

The Dodgers win the most games in the NL in the toughest division in the NL. They've got better starting pitching AT THE TOP and top to bottom, they've got an offense that's only slightly worse, and they've got a bullpen that's markedly better...oh yeah, plus they get to play at home. But pick the Phillies. It makes about as much sense as betting your house on St. Louis, as some schlub wanted us to do last week.

/I win.

The Dodgers fan questions Ibanez in left while they have the worst fielding LF in the history of baseball.

Gross exaggeration. There were lots of guys who were worse than Manny in LF this season. Delmon Young, Ryan Braun, Carlos Quentin, Adam Dunn, Jason Bay were all worse according to UZR.

But carry on with your hyperbole and nonsensical rants. I'll work with facts. We'll see who wins.

Dumb argument.

Keep talking up home field.  The Phillies are the best road team in baseball.  48-33.  Better on the road then at home.

Comparing stats for the rotations for the whole year is absurd.

Our rotation is completely different.

Replace Jamie Moyer with Cliff Lee.  A cy young pitcher takes over for someone who had a 5 ERA.  We replaced a 5 with a 1.

Dodgers had Billingsley who is now lost pitching lights out in the beginning of the year (3.38 ERA pre all start compared to 5.2 ERA post all star break).  Also, Kuroda helped those stats and might not even pitch neither.

Talk about skewing stats with pitchers who won't even get a start.

Lets focus on what their rotations are now and what theyve done against their respective opponents in the past.

And, I'm not saying Hamels is the greatest pitcher in the bigs, but against the Dodgers, he might as well be.

Park effects? 

Let's look at our two best players:

Ryan Howard had 14 less K, 8 more HR, 27 more RBI, better avg, slg and ops on the road.

Utley's home/road splits are about equal except his avg, obp, slg and ops are much better on the road.

Our hitters are more patient on the road and have better approaches at the plate.  My theory is theyre not trying to yank it everytime in our bandbox.  They get too aggressive at home and chase bad pitches.  This is also why they struggle bringing runs in from 3rd with less than 2 outs at home.  Instead of choking up and making contact, they are still trying to crush the ball to the moon.


Why do you not look at the matchups?  Our pitchers are outstanding against the Dodger bats.  The Dodgers starting pitchers including your boy Kershaw got lit up by us.  He will be a stud, but is still inconsistent with location which is a nightmare against a patient lineup like the Phils.

Hamels will throw another gem on Thursday.  2-0 3 ER in 14 innings in the NLCS last year.  1-0 with 1 ER in 16 innings this year against the Dodgers.  Notice a trend here?  3-0 4 ER in the last 30 innings pitched against LAD with a 27:6 K:BB ratio.  Find me another pitcher in baseball who has dominated a team more over their last four starts.'


And, don't underestimate what two saves in a row (last two outs coming against the other teams best player) can do for Lidge's confidence.  His stuff looked great and his problems have mostly been mental.

You win?  No, nobody wins until this series is over.

And, as far as betting.

Want to bet the Phils for the series, but I like Hamels game 1.

So, I will hit Hamels game 1 and if he loses, I'll get more value with my series dog bet.  If he wins, I take my money and enjoy the rest of the NLCS

Congratulations, you win the award for not having a clue what you're talking about, again.

Those stats include Cliff Lee's entire body of work.

I don't have the time or energy to get into a full blown sabermetric debate with you right now, but why don't I look at matchups?

Because it's stupid to look at a very, very, very, very, very small data set when you could look at a much larger data set. Over the course of 10 at-bats, a lot of things can influence the numbers. Over the course of 162 games, things tend to even themselves out.

And you're wrong, once again, about Brad Lidge. His problems have amounted almost entirely to his fastball and his inability to locate it. It's been his inability to generate the number of swings outside the strike zone that he has in the past.

Excuse me if I don't take two appearances (one in which he walked two batters in an inning) over a whole year's worth of hard evidence.

Of course, trying to argue with you is like arguing with a really ignorant brick wall. People who use batting average and RBI to discuss player ability are...eh, living in the 1990s. Or they work for the Royals and Braves. Either way.

Very well written Tigerpaw, I enjoyed the other long writeup you wrote earlier last week.  

STUCK-ey regarding your comment "And, don't underestimate what two saves in a row (last two outs coming against the other teams best player) can do for Lidge's confidence.  His stuff looked great and his problems have mostly been mental." 

What game were you watching???  Do you even watch the game???  The way Lidge closed out Sundays game against the Rockies, I know any Philly backers that night were

He walked Gonzalez and Helton before finally getting Tulowitzki to fly out and 0 strikeouts. 

TigerPawSC wins

I know they do, but they also include pitchers stats who won't even have an impact on this series.

And, we can get into a sabermetric argument if you'd like.  Feel like I'm talking to Billy Beane.

I guess the only way to settle is to see who wins the series.  Greatest thing about baseball is it is not a one game playoff where the better team could get fucked.  Theyll battle it out over 4,5,6 or 7 games.

Dodgers win, I will bump this and give you props.  Expect the same on the flip.

The two Dodgers fans from Cali say the guy arguing for the Dodgers wins.  Shocking!!!!!

I'll catch up with this thread later in the week.  Has the makings of 50 pages by the end of the series LMAO

Oh, and before I forget...

You said above:  It makes about as much sense as betting your house on St. Louis, as some schlub wanted us to do last week.


Who gives a fuck if that guy was wrong?  People can't make predictions?  That is what this forum is for.  People take a stand and give their reasons.  Don't shit on him because he was wrong.  I take stands and am wrong all the time.    You act like you know everything about baseball.  You said the Rocks had a pitching advantage in every game Ubaldo pitches and you saw them winning in 4.  So, like I said, one of us is wrong.  We have strong opinions.  Let's let them play it the fuck out.

People claiming an argument is won before the series even starts

The Kershaw/Lee games are gonna be one heck of a matchup.

The advantage for the Dodgers pitchers is with Kuo/Sherrill/Broxton in the bullpen, they can expend themselves fully in 6 innings of work. Kind of how the Angels won the World Series in 2002.

Uhh I'd like to buy STUCK-ey a CLUE for 500 please.